Who would’ve thought the mere prospect of a US president being impeached would not even register on the radar of many investors. It would appear this is the kind of situation we are in with US investors seemingly discounting the likely impeachment/resignation of Donald Trump in the short to medium term. If you read the press this comments are receiving less and less coverage and even his controversial statements are being ignored.
Is it time for change?
Love him or loathe him, there is no doubt that Donald Trump would at least appear to have the best interests of the US business sector at heart. Whether he goes about this in the correct manner is debatable but he is offering a greater degree of protection to US businesses than that seen in recent times. For many investors it is the ongoing friction and concern about a long-term trading relationship with China which is most troubling. While much of the public persona of Donald Trump is very different to that seen when negotiating behind closed doors, he does not give a very good impression to US and overseas investors.
Ongoing friction with the Federal Reserve
There is also the ongoing “challenging relationship” between Donald Trump and the Fed. The president has effectively called the bluff of the Fed which is now committed, at least in the short-term, to relatively low US interest rates. This will to a certain degree help to support the economy and put a lid on recent US dollar strength. However, politicians and those holding prominent positions at the Federal Reserve have long memories.
We know there are many different factions across the US looking to stab Donald Trump in the back at the first opportunity. He has an ever-growing list of enemies, many of which are well-connected and slowly chipping away at his reputation and control of the US government. There have even been rumours of blatant briefing against the president from some of the leading lights within the US government. We are also seeing many of Donald Trump’s colleagues in the government falling like flies – he is losing support.
Has Donald Trump got the stomach for a fight?
If there is one man you should never underestimate it is Donald Trump. He has been there, done it, seen it and bought the T-shirt. He has been bankrupt on numerous occasions, risen from the dead and has connections in very high place around the world. Indeed it may well be his alleged Russian connections which eventually bring his government to a premature close but time will tell. If Donald Trump is forced out of office you can bet your bottom dollar he will attempt to bring down those who have made his life difficult!
Conclusion
There seems to be an air of inevitability regarding a premature end to Donald Trump’s time in office. Even his most controversial comments are now being ignored, his social media rants receive little in the way of attention and he is a weakened force after the recent elections. Investors once hailed Donald Trump as the saviour of the US business sector. Stock markets rallied while pessimists continued to talk down his influence. Whether chickens are about to come home to roost or he will fight off the biggest challenge to his reputation and presidency remains to be seen. However, things are coming to a head and there will be movement one way or the other.