If the opposition parties in the UK rallied together to force Boris Johnson from office it is likely the UK stock market would come under pressure. Markets like guarantees, they like certainty and any political shenanigans can undo all of this. So, why are US stock markets unconcerned about the ongoing impeachment hearing involving their President Donald Trump?
Donald Trump has faults but…..
Whatever you think of Donald Trump there is no doubt that he has done exactly what he promised, America must come first. He has withdrawn funding from many international organisations, announced trade tariffs and is playing hardball with many of America’s trading partners. Whether you like his personal persona or not there is no doubt that he is putting America first and the general public/investors seem to appreciate this.
Rumours and evidence coming out of the impeachment hearing do not make good reading for the president. There is a general feeling that politicians in America are simply attempting to ridicule Donald Trump in the knowledge that they will not gain the majority in the higher house to force him from office. In reality, love him or hate him, there has been a witchhunt for Donald Trump since day one!
Investors unconcerned
The fact that the US stock market is bouncing along towards all-time highs is to a certain extent a reflection of low interest rates but also a relatively strong economy. Donald Trump is in the midst of attempting to overhaul an economy which has been heavily influenced by overseas trade often to the detriment of the USA. This will take time but if the recent evidence is anything to go by then his plan is working.
We can probably assume that the fact that US stock markets are relatively stable in light of the impeachment hearing, that they believe it will fail. Yes, he will be under pressure, yes, there is more legal action to release his tax statements, but let’s face it Donald Trump is not a man who embarrasses very easily!
Shaking up the establishment
Akin to some of the political manoeuvres in the UK, there is a feeling that Donald Trump is feeling the wrath of the establishment that he is looking to shake up. Despite the fact that he mixes in business circles, is extremely wealthy and influential, he’s never been seen as “one of the establishment”. Yes, he will play the game, he is ruthless in business but he has never quite fitted in with the “in crowd”.
There are genuine concerns that the ongoing pressure of the impeachment hearing and constant demands for his tax returns are starting to impact his physical and mental well-being. Aside from overlooking all aspects of US life and looking to breathe life into the US economy, there is constant pressure regarding his private life. There is no doubt that Donald Trump has made mistakes, he will no doubt make more mistakes, but love him or loathe them, he does get things done!
Conclusion
At this moment in time we can only assume that investment markets do not believe that Donald Trump’s attempted impeachment will be successful. While the stereotypical “Marmite” politician, he does not do things for effect and does do what he thinks best. However, it is safe to say that he does make mistakes and no doubt he will continue to do so for some time to come. Are his political opponents looking to squeeze him out of office by placing pressure on his physical/mental well-being?