EUR/USD seems poised to trade sideways for the remainder of the year. After new years I predict that the EUR will regain strength relative to the USD. Don't try to catch a falling knife. Wait for the turn around then enter the market with confidence.
It's a downtrend on the 4 hour chart. I sold months ago and I rode it out. I was actually down 200 pips before it finally went back down again. Now im up big time.
That's a four hour chart from hell if your long. I actually just did take a long position in the EUR/USD on Thursday afternoon. Not that I'm trying to play the hero, or catch a falling knife, but seriously how much lower can it go before it corrects. The market is suggesting that a turn around is imminent, and I want in on the move all the way up say 300 or 400 pips. I only monitor the daily charts by the way. They look much better than the four hour charts.
Well, it just might not fall forever, but we are not seeing any signs that it will start climbing again. Either cases, the dollar and the euro were almost equal years ago if anyone can still recall.
I use to chase the rabbit all the time, and I use to get burned. So I just take it easy and play the 4 hour chart. I'm up a few hundred pips. If I see a potential long coming up I'll exit and wait for my indicators to show a confirmed long. I do play other usd pairs as well. When the other pairs show a long also, then that's the final confirmation for the long.
Lets all wait til the new year when the traders are back and ready to make this sucker move again. We might see a long, you never know. Just when you think you figured things out, they throw a monkey wrench in the system and things go nuts.
Ignore the ides of December. December can be very deceptive. The crowd isn't really around, so any movement up or down may not accurately reflect sentiment. We will know where we are with the EUR/USD by the middle of January. I anticipate a correction as we are about to hit a technical support at 1.2100 if not sooner.
That's true, everything can change really fast, but for those in Europe it's pretty good to see the Euro value coming down, because the dollars that we might earn are worth more now.
A strong dollar is good for exporters in Europe and Japan. However, and I've been saying this for the past couple of weeks, this is more likely to reverse than to continue. So, be careful with your thoughts about going short the EUR/USD from here.
