American are filing less applications for unemployment benefit. U.S. are in their 8 week low of the unemployment benefit filing applications. This feels in according of what the NFP announced earlier this month and shows a good sign for the U.S. economy. The claims hits the lowest level since July 18, and before that, it only happened in 1973. As always, a more "happy" U.S. economy means as well that the Fed will more likely raise the interests rate because 5% is often the barrier for them, and if it happens that this number isn't exaggerated as suggested earlier, it's time for them to act. Or maybe they will just wait. Do you still think it's exaggerated and unemployment isn't enough solved yet? Also, how do you see the housing market right now?
As discussed in numerous other threads (including one of yours) to the point of circular arguments, an unemployment rate drop of 0.2% is statistically insignificant. The labor participation rate is dropping; some argue the number dropping out is not accurately measured. The Fed dashboard has numerous measures, not all reported by the MSM. Yellen and company are additionally under pressure from other countries to hold the rate and stay the course; did you see, on NHK TV, the "plea" from the central bank of Japan? What will the Fed do or not do in 2.5 hours? The guessing game is afoot, and opinions are all over the map. It is absolutely the silly season. Blah, blah, blah... I'm looking to the Fed Monetary Policy page -- http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/ -- for their statements first. I'll look and listen to some of the pundits' analysis later on.
I guess the US economy is on the rise. Proof is the exchange rate of the Peso that used to be 46 to a dollar and now it slid down to 47 on the reason that the US dollar is getting stronger. At least the economy will be stable come election time and that would be a good sign for the next president of the United States. I just hope that the good economy will hold for a longer time until those hit by the recession years ago could finally recover fully.
I think at this point weekly and monthy unemployment numbers are mostly ignored. There is so much fudge factor that goes into them that a .2% change has no meaning. I think investors react to it, only because they think other investors will react to it, which creates a small circle jerk, but nothing major. it is more important to look at the longer term trends rather than ´this weeks numbers are low´.
I don't see why you talk about the 0.2% drop from NFP, since meanwhile the number is related, I am talking about another metric confirming better unemployment metrics. But it seems like you still not believe it or not consider it really meaningful. I must admit it is to the point I don't understand. When the unemployment metrics goes higher, everyone is like crying much like if disaster is on-going and continue. And when the number is getting less bad, no "enjoyment" happens, to the point it is not even considered. You can't really consider it one way, and not consider it on the another way. This, is meaningless. Do you basically hope that United States' economy helps the other economies to recover by maintaining a reasonable/good economy health?
Economy is something very volatile, so now it's on the rise and that's great news, but if those pulling the strings decide they can make it collapse, it's as simple as that.
I agree when you say the economy is very volatile, but this thing almost remains since we rather wanted a world economy than an economy weirdly separated by virtual borders, because while limits are needed, they feel weird. So if the economy is that volatile, when it is going down, we shouldn't panic as we can do sometimes. I think the force of the reaction in one way should be as strong in the other way, at least, and I would even go further: good news should be more weighted than bad news. But the trend today show me the reverse, much like about this unemployment news. I feel like finally that somehow, we want this cloud of uncertainty, and we try to install that. I never saw an economy preventing collapses by uncertainty. I saw it by trying to dissuade to follow the most stupid risks.
For me, it doesn´t matter at all on the weekly or monthly numbers, they are just too inaccurate overall to get excited over very small changes. Better to look at 6 month lines.
A quarter is the shortest metric I even consider. I think if your a long term investor like most here you really have to look at the big picture, these week by weeks don't really give a proper picture of whats going on.
