Thursday's starting: a look on Europe

Discussion in 'General Trading Discussion' started by WaveWage, Oct 1, 2015.

  1. WaveWage

    WaveWage Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2015
    Posts:
    243
    Likes Received:
    2
    Because it is interesting to look at the European markets, mainly because they tend to follow Asian markets or Wall Street of the day or of yesterday, depending of their mood!


    But this also gives the trend for the Thursday day, if we are going to see losses or not. And right now, the insight seems pretty positive. All the data are as of ~10:08 UTC, if you wonder.


    Let's start by Spain and its IBEX 35, it gots +1.57% and +150.40 pts. Meanwhile, CAC 40 stays more on the side with +1.14% and +50.92 pts, DAX 30 did a good start but then fallen a bit and finally we're currently at +30.14 pts and +0.31% and FTSE 100 got +79.93 pts and +1.32%. Spain maybe not that bad!


    Finally, it seems the quarterly results didn't afraid our Europe's friends, as Wall Street did. Also, it seems they are happy of the Glencore rise and of the stronger dollar.
     
  2. hs0zfe

    hs0zfe Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 2015
    Posts:
    43
    Likes Received:
    0
    Good point. I check the U.S. futures and 99% of the time it's the S&P 500 (many times more important than the Dow Jones, JMHO) leads the way.
     
  3. Susimi

    Susimi Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Sep 2015
    Posts:
    519
    Likes Received:
    1
    The FTSE 100 looks like it's made some promising gains back. I noticed last night that it had dropped a few points overall and yesterday morning I saw via the charts that it took a bit of a nosedive.
     
  4. WaveWage

    WaveWage Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2015
    Posts:
    243
    Likes Received:
    2
    If you consider the point of view from the post's date, October 1st, yes, FTSE 100 has done interesting gains. If you take from the last Friday October 9, no, it is falling since that date. Not falling too much quickly, but still falling and going down. But the thing is that it reveals a better trend odf the health of the UK economy. The wonder is why. The only thing you can rule out is the currency, despite the long-wanted currency separation between EU and UK, they have almost the same charts. It serves no purpose, basically, to have a that different currency when you end up having the same market trends.
     
  5. Susimi

    Susimi Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Sep 2015
    Posts:
    519
    Likes Received:
    1
    Ahh, you are totally right. I see my blunder of not looking at the post date. I feel a little sheepish now...

    As the UK gets closer to a referendum on the EU, what sort of impact will it have on the FTSE 100? I admit that I never looks but do you or does anyone here know how the market was reacting all throughout the Scottish referendum period? I know it's not the same situation but going off of the market during the referendum on Scotland might give some clues as to how it will be over the EU.
     
  6. WaveWage

    WaveWage Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2015
    Posts:
    243
    Likes Received:
    2
    I don't think (or I would be surprised to learn) about any Scottish market index. It is not planned to have a stock market. And I don't think there would be many UK companies suddenly moving to the Scotland market if the vote was to make it become independent. So we can't really compare.


    About the EU referendum, I think that if the polls really announce something that's going to change the situation, the market will start to sell, or even bear. This is more of a fiction than a prediction, but that would be my words without further analysis of charts in the past. When they're in doubt, markets tend to sell. But if the polls tells it is likely to stay that way, I think the market will follow along.
     
  7. Susimi

    Susimi Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Sep 2015
    Posts:
    519
    Likes Received:
    1
    With the Scottish situation I was more thinking along the same situation as the the possible situation of an EU referendum where it starts to sell over fears over the UK breaking up partially.
     
  8. WaveWage

    WaveWage Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 2015
    Posts:
    243
    Likes Received:
    2
    Commercially speaking, in my opinion, the fact UK can get out/stay in the EU is more worrying for markets than the Scottish independence, in my opinion. Meanwhile it would certainly threaten somehow the integrity of UK if Scottish was independent, because suddenly other parts of the world will take this into example and push further the move of "independence" across some territories. That's more a political issue than anything else.


    Meanwhile, EU, affects them directly regarding to the economy and the possible exchanges. It means that they will have less exchanges, but they will be, perhaps, more independent of the success/fail of EU.
     
  9. Susimi

    Susimi Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Sep 2015
    Posts:
    519
    Likes Received:
    1
    I'm really not sure how I feel about the EU referendum business. There are good points but there are bad points as well and I'm not really confident that it will effect our economy positively. I think the FTSE will be one to watch at least during the days after the outcome, as well as a lot of the top UK stocks. Personally I'd like to see them all rise but the negative side of me can only see them plummeting sharply before climbing back to around their previous values.
     

Share This Page