One of the Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer talked about the interest rates. He clearly state something first: meanwhile it is still likely to raise interest rates this year, it is only "an expectation, not a commitment". This come meanwhile the uncertainty of the interest rate rise blows each month's start markets because of that likeliness. Precious metals are often whining at that time, meanwhile markets just questions themselves in a loop they can't even answer. IMF asked Fed to be clearer about that Hike, but he answers by rejecting to overcommit the problem because of IMF. He said there's considerable uncertainties about the U.S. economic outlook, the Fed will try to be as clear as possible on the policy but can warrant as much as facts allow them to warrant. The job growth is disappointing according to him, meanwhile it is still growing. Last reason invoked as well is the international events like the China slowdown that affects the U.S. economy as well and could be the threat. What do you think? It feels still likely, no?
My best guess is that they'll probably eventually just slip the hike in at one meeting without much lip service before or after. They've talked it to death and put it off for years, and they'll have to raise eventually. The only question is when.
I'm on the side believing the raise will happen this year, even if they are talking about it since awhile, I feel like we were close of a raise window, and I think this raise window is perhaps still there or will be there again in the 2015 year. After all, if they expect to do it, why they would lie? I don't think this climate of waiting the Fed decision is doing good to the market given all the declines that happened when there was this Fed uncertainty and take also the U.S. dollar getting weaker, that's not so good for importation.
Insiders at corporations who are listed on stock exchanges would get hauled before Congress if they were to engage in such blatantly obvious market manipulationins. Yellen herself said something 2 weeks ago about a raise this year. Back and forth - and each comment drives markets. STFU, just like other insiders have to!!
I also feel that they are indirectly manipulating the market. Will the Fed rate be hiked? Some analysts think they'll hold it off till 2017. But if it actually is raised either late this year or early next year, it will more likely be a minuscule rate increase. A small raise that would have little to no effect.
Analysts rarely agrees, you know, so I'm not surprised some calls and thinks it will wait 2017. But that feels more absurd, the later they can do is 2016 in my opinion. And if they think the raise was so "little", markets wouldn't care a bit about its raise. Okay, but what is the purpose of this market manipulation? Fed's job is to ensure the good health of the currency, of the US economy, and of the inflation at 2% rate if possible. Meanwhile I didn't get fully why they have this 2% objective, they have it and try to make it possible. So, if you think it might be market manipulation, okay, but for what purpose? Manipulating something without an intention would be pointless.
Cui bono? First, these are just individuals who have been engaged in that inappropriate conduct. (Can you see Immelt give speaches days before GE's earnings are released?). A advance notice to buddies who can use derivatives once they know down to a minute what kind of bias would be used, with the predictable markt's reaction. B to sow uncertainty and confusion and keep that mysterious aura of an "oracle". C any thoughts?
Given the Fed's reluctance to raise rates in the face of the economy's lackluster recovery, this Bloomberg report -- http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-u-s-job-growth-isn-t-going-away-anytime-soon -- solidifies my thinking there will be no rate until 2016. Bloomberg reports export industries have been losing 50,000 jobs per month this year, versus gainng 9,000 jobs per month in 2014. Obviously no one data set tips the Fed's collective thinking but I would think the stats influence the duscussion.
We're still in a weird world regarding to this raise (that's going on since too much time, honestly), because it seems no one really wants it, but some does, but no one wants. I mean, if there's no raise in 2015, it will show as a weakness of the U.S. economy and investors said it would be more reassuring to see a raise. And then, when the probability of a raise gets a little less higher, U.S. markets seems to be on the happy move. I don't understand. Are some U.S. businesses really wanting that, or they don't care and just want more money available? We should start to raise this question seriously, given the behavior of the markets regarding to reports everyday.
The Fed has been using this technique for as long as I can remember. The way I think of it is that talking strongly about a hike is almost as effective as actually doing it. The Fed can get almost the same reaction from the economy just by talking about a rate hike, without actually doing it, so with less risks. Greenspan was king of this. They are not trying to manipulate the market, they are trying to manipulate the economy, which is their job. I am putting it at 40% this year 60% first meeting next year. I think China has them spooked and they really don´t want to do it.
