Optimistic Europe, why?

Discussion in 'General Trading Discussion' started by WaveWage, Oct 16, 2015.

  1. WaveWage

    WaveWage Well-Known Member

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    When inflations, disinflations and oil make markets afraid. Here, once again, the European markets. They are happy of the fact they believe the interest rates is unlikely to raise this year in their opinion, meanwhile later in the day it was disclosed U.S. inflation data that would make it more likely, making in theory European markets less happy, but they still kept on gains because of this fact.


    Anyway, Europe is a gaining mood for Thursday. And meanwhile Volskwagen is doing -3.8%, DAX 30 is the best performer compared to IBEX 35, CAC 40, FTSE 100.
    Let's get to the numbers:
    IBEX 35 is doing +0.64%, or +64.10 pts, at 10,101.70 pts. CAC 40 is having a +1.44% score, or +66.26 pts, with 4,675.29 pts. Meanwhile, FTSE 100 is doing +1.10% or +69.06 pts at 6,338.67 pts. Finally, DAX 30 is at 10,064.80 pts, with +1.50% or +148.95 pts.
     
  2. hs0zfe

    hs0zfe Active Member

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    I guess it's the expectation of more QE by the ECB. What happens when the ECB buys 60 bn Euros worth of government bonds per month? 15 bn of Bunds alone BTW. Who are the sellers? Bank! Who then likely put the money to use by lending it or investing it in the stock market.

    There is so much wrong, so much to worry about for the Euro Zone!!!

    As a Kraut, I'd like to say something about the mess Germany will be facing:

    #1, look beyond actual numbers of immigrants. => higher taxes and all kinds of social policy issues are getting much worse over time. About 70% are men, mostly young men. They have families who will want to join them.

    * Germany isn't a country where milk and honey flows. Many self-employed people have no medical insurance! Many elderly get less than migrants - after decades of paying into the social security fund!

    * there has been a total lawlessness about the way Merkel acts now and then. First, the "energy change", costing xxx billions and counting. I asked a friend this week, he answered "$ 0.28 is his kw/h price. How much are you paying?!?

    * The majority gets lied to by this chancellor. Here are some examples:

    1. Greece will pay back (the German) loans in full.
    2. "Border controls" were reinstated. WTH? No such thing, how many were sent back? Check it out. 20% come from Northern Africa etc.
    3. Google TARGET 2 + Professor Sinn. In a nutshell, EU member states have been able to issue IOUs for about a trillion, with Greece owing the Bundesbank >100 bn Euros alone. You think these monies will ever be repaid?! :confused:
     
  3. hs0zfe

    hs0zfe Active Member

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    Remember, it's all about the future. Forget past earnings and yesterday's news.

    France: rising unemployment (it's quite out of control IMHO)

    Germany: political instability, especially (!) if Merkel won't get dethroned sometime soon. Certainly higher taxes, read my lips.

    FYI, DB's chief economist published a report stating the migrants will turn Germany into an economic powerhouse and cause blossoming culture and science.
    [/COLOR](cannot post the link, even when it's broken up. Am unhappy about this as it's optional to click on it. But it adds depth to a claim when the corroborating article is linked)

    I'm very pessimistic as I know how much red tape there is in Germany. It will take years to change laws and procedures. Time that's not available.

    With her countless selfies with migrants, the chancellor has been sending the wrong message. Now the borders will remain open and all the talk of strengthening FRONTEX and doing a pact with Turkey won't resolve this crisis. (What about those who come to Italy? Maybe they should buy up and sink boats in Lybia?)
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 8, 2016
  4. Sunflogun

    Sunflogun Well-Known Member

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    What I want to answer is, why not? When things are not going the way people want, nothing like being optimistic, that might work as a marketing campaign and might cheers things up.
     
  5. WaveWage

    WaveWage Well-Known Member

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    Wow, slowly. Sure banks are helped by the easing policy and the fact more free money is available to them, doesn't matter if we talk about the easing policy of the United States or of the Europe, or even of Japan. But it doesn't change the fact Europe isn't only Germany as people tend to think, it's a whole bunch of countries, including UK with its own currency (meaning FOREX rates when trading between Eurozone and UK), so you can't compute it that way with only the Germany in sight.

    As well, the immigrants aren't the "immediate thing to blame" of the future problems of the economy. Be realistic. Problems happening in the Europe economy was caused a long before there was this on the table.



    Well, I don't think it's a marketing campaign, markets aren't trying to do "marketing" on the markets and show false optimism. It's just they believe it's better today.
     

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