Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by Andrea ForexMart, Aug 23, 2017.

  1. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 8, 2017


    The EURUSD pair had a dipped again during the early trade behind weaker than expected production figures from Germany, the data also declined in September. The retail PMI in the European region dropped but retail sales further softened. Meanwhile, Chain Store Sales in the United States had bounced back in the recent week and the Loan Officers survey of U.S. presented standards easing.


    Moreover, the euro-dollar pair drove lower and tested the 1.5050 level.The pair bounced back in the late session and failed to reacquire the 1.16 handle. The resistance can be found at 1.1722 region near the 20-day moving average. The prices resumed forming a head and shoulder reversal pattern with the neckline with a gapped at 1.1660 zone. The target support can be estimated by subtracting the neckline above the 1.1160 head. The momentum sustained its negative stance. The MACD histogram prints in the red, showing a descending trajectory towards a lower exchange rate.


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  2. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Senior Investor

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    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 9, 2017


    The British currency declined throughout the trading day on Wednesday as fears continue to influence the sterling relative to the Brexit negotiations, as well as the potential of Britain to maintain its economic stability during this period. The GBP went down to the 1.31 level for a short period of time prior the rebound from that point, which allowed the currency to close the day over the 1.31 mark but remained to be weak as of this moment.


    Another reason for the decline of the GBPUSD is the continuous dollar strengthening that boosted the discussion on the tax reform bill. The U.S. dollar trades with little strength since the approval of the tax bill by President Donald Trump and his team. However, the confirmation is not yet through since it is currently brought into law while there are reports about the possible delay of the actual implementation. On the other hand, some say that Trump will not allow this to happen amid the uncertainties regarding this matter that would likely influence the greenbacks in the near-term.


    Moreover, the GBP was supported by the entire talks concerning the slow Brexit process which continued to bog down every single day. The sterling was also affected by the pessimistic UK economic outlook brought by the latest rate announcement by the BOE, this could possibly be the reason for the continuous trading near the range lows by the Cable pair despite rate increase. Aside from the fact that the market priced in the rate hike, it further expects more from the Bank of England but the bank did not provide some positive statement that put pressure on the pound.


    Ultimately, the United States or the United Kingdom will not release any major report. Therefore, consolidation is projected on either side of 1.31 mark throughout the day. The support came in at 1.31 region which is very strong along with sudden bounces which indicates that the pound is not subjected to any decline sooner or later.
     
  3. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 16, 2017


    The euro against the U.S. dollar rallied higher during the beginning of the trade session for five succeeding days and being tested for a 1-month high. The market failed to maintain the current rate as the greenback gathered momentum amid a risk aversion situation. The U.S. data came out positively even better than anticipated. The retail sales data came in higher as well as the CPI report, which supported the U.S. yields and raised the rate of the dollar.


    The EUR/USD climbed higher as it reaches close to the October high at the level of 1.1858. The exchange rate has reached once again the 50-day moving average at the level of 1.1786, which is currently the short-term support in the trend. Additional support was found close to the 10-day moving average at 1.1663. The impetus of the currency pair has been moving at a good pace as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) index initiating a buy signal. This happened as the MACD line, which is the 12-day exponential moving average (EMA) minus the 26-day EMA, crossed higher than the MACD signal line found at the 9-day exponential moving average of the MACD line.
     
  4. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 17, 2017


    The EUR/USD pair had been moving unsteadily in the past few days as the pair moves up and down with high volatility as the greenback moves without a specific direction in the present global tone. The dollar is appealing to be bought in the short term yet the market maybe thinking twice. Although, there are instances where the rally of the dollar where it is being sold at a faster rate.


    This maintains the pressure in the dollar and which would be advantageous for the euro. What’s keeping the market optimistic for the dollar is a rate hike from the Fed in December although, the market does not strongly believe this. There are no specific indications yet with indecisiveness of Fed members while the data move at a steady pace.


    This has kept the dollar weak with any news or data to be released. In the past 24 hours, the euro decline to the area of 1.1750 which is seen to move down in general. The latest relevant news would be the continuation of the development of missiles from North Korea and the ongoing investigation on the accusation of Russian intervention in the US Presidential elections. These events would drive the dollar down.


    For today, the speech of Draghi are expected during the London session but it is unlikely that he would discuss the monetary policy. Hence, traders should get ready for choppiness in trading this pair and be cautious in the liquidity of the pair.


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  5. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Senior Investor

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    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 20, 2017


    The British pound persisted to move at a fixed rate but it is the opposite to the euro currency because of the news from German coalition talks. The pound has taken advantage of the low dollar as it rose to 1.32 level. However, it is still to be observed if this move higher.


    The latest news from Germany will most likely affect the British pound as well as other countries of the Eurozone with the ongoing Brexit talk. Thinking about it, the current situation facing Merkel in Germany may be similar with U.K. Prime minister Theresa May as she also fights her own battle. However, it should be considered that any changes to cause uncertainty would most likely affect the Brexit as well. This will not be favorable to Germany or U.K. Nevertheless, both countries would want a good transition and come to a conclusion that would be beneficial for both ends.


    Any uncertainty in Germany would slow down the talks and look forward to an agreement which could complicate more things further and be disadvantageous for the pound in long-term. Aggressive leaders are best suited in the current situation as they are looking for a conclusion. However, some domestic concerns are hampering the process which gets their attention. For short term, the British pound could have some gains because of uncertainty from Germany. However, this could have a negative impact on the U.K. for the long term if this situation is prolonged.


    For today, the British pound seems to be put under pressure as it depreciates against euro during the London session. There is no major news from the U.S. or from the U.K. in other times of the day. Consequently, the consolidation with a bearish tone is anticipated to take place today.
     
  6. Chartman

    Chartman Senior Investor

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    Will this reduce Germany's short term influence in the EU? Interesting to see if the EU politicians attack Merkel as they did Theresa May when she lost control of her government. What is your gut feeling about Brexit?
     
  7. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 21, 2017


    The single European currency paired with the US Dollar descended and resumed to create a mini-bull flag formation, however, the fundamental and political events coincided against the EURUSD yesterday. The German PPI came in weaker than expected while the failed plan of Merkel to generate a coalition placed pressure to the EUR/USD.


    The currency pair currently trades sideways and stayed around the 1.1800 region, after being pushed downwards amid earlier trading hours to test the 1.1704 support area close to the 10-day moving average. The short-term resistance entered the mark 1.1771 around the 50- day moving average. The positive momentum declined as the MACD (moving average convergence divergence) histogram prints in the black. The trajectory of the indicator appears to be negative which implies consolidation towards the pair. The RSI also traded sideways showing a reading of 52 fixed in the middle of the neutral range. It further suggests consolidation.
     
  8. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 21, 2017


    The EUR/USD pair has a choppy which lead the whole trading session in the past 24 hours.Although, this was influenced by the events in Germany which have put pressure on the market. The euro was affected by the news of the coalition talks in Germany which resulted in a breakdown and declined to a much lower rate during the Asian session. It seems that the euro will be weakened but this was reversed during the trading session as it gained strength.


    The euro climbed higher reaching the level of 1.18 as the market ignored the happenings which moved the whole trend higher. It was clearly shown that there is some pressure in the pressure which would be more obvious later on. It initiated during the U.S. session but the euro declined once again lower than the 1.1750 by the end of the day and will most likely continue.


    Merkel has been facing an obstacle that has weakened both locally and internationally amid the Brexit negotiations. She would want to be in alliance with other parties although, she knows that this would not be easy. Another option is for her to go for another election but this would bring more uncertainty. It cannot be determined if she will come out stronger or would weaker position in the election. This shaken the German market which also affected the euro.


    For today, there is no major news anticipated from the Eurozone or from the U.S. The euro is anticipated to trade in a weak manner in the course of the day and reached lower than the level of 1.17 until there are still pressure present in the market.
     
  9. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD Technical Analysis: November 22, 2017


    The EUR/USD pair was traded in a narrow range during the shortened week because of the holiday that affects both America and Japan on Thursday. The dollar gained momentum at the beginning following a positive home sales report that boosted the U.S. greater than 2 percent.


    The U.S. Chicago Fed National Activity index rose in October as well as the Retail store sales in the past week which is due to the busy holiday season.


    The euro major pair rebounded at the support level close to the 10-day Moving Average at 1.1718 which stays afloat higher than the neckline of the head and shoulder pattern. Although, it was not able to initiate liquidation for long-term. There is a resistance found close to the


    November highs at 1.1860. The forward momentum is declining as the MACD histogram print is in black with a southward trajectory which could lead to the consolidation of the pair.
     
  10. Andrea ForexMart

    Andrea ForexMart Senior Investor

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    GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: November 23, 2017


    The GBP/USD pair gained more strength from the American dollar than the British pound after the publication of FOMC minutes. The announcement of budget and UK economic outlook had a slight impact towards the pound, hence, the weakness that was left in the dollar provided support to the Cable pair in order to edged higher.


    This day is predicted to be highly volatile for the GBP due to the UK budget announcement and FOMC minutes in the United States later. If this happens, the GBPUSD would decline to the 1.3220 mark during the London hours after the issued news relative with the Britain’s budget, however, when the details were already published the flow is expected to reverse.


    The announced budget seems to have huge borrowing amount that softened the sterling initially but reduced the trend productivity. This helped the pair to make a reversal and drive upwards near the 1.3250 level. Moreover, the GBP remained unchanged until the issuance of the Fed minutes which said that majority of the members agreed with the rate hike in December, but the following increase is not yet sure.


    Mainly, concerns regarding inflation continues and the central bank stated that they wanted to wait for further upcoming data prior making a final decision for a further rate increase. The focus of the market is centered on the dovish statement that will weaken the greenbacks as well as to support the Cable to move near the 1.33 level. The pair is currently trading above 1.33 and would be better to push towards the mark 1.34 in the short-term.


    Ultimately, the second estimate for the UK GDP is expected to release and marks the onset of the long weekend due to US Thanksgiving celebration. This indicates that liquidity may dry up while volatility could possibly lower down. In that event, it is not surprising for a boring consolidation for the rest of the day.
     

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