Do you Agree with these Four Predictions for 2014?

Discussion in 'General Trading Discussion' started by HeinrichM, Apr 13, 2014.

  1. HeinrichM

    HeinrichM Active Member

    Joined:
    Mar 2014
    Posts:
    39
    Likes Received:
    0
    Anatole Kaletsky is an award-winning journalist and financial economist who has written since 1976 for The Economist, the Financial Times and The Times of London before joining Reuters. He wrote a blog post in which he made 4 predictions with regard to the markets in 2014. Anatole predicted that the US growth rate will climb above 4%, that the financial trends of 2013 will continue in 2014, the European crisis will have an impact on the politics (and thereby economy), Japan will underperform again and emerging markets will make a come-back.

    Do you agree with these predictions?

     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jul 8, 2016
  2. Annabell

    Annabell Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2014
    Posts:
    95
    Likes Received:
    2
    I'm not sure I would agree with the rate climbing above the 4% rate, but the rest seem fairly obvious. Especially the one about the European crisis. It's not even really a prediction. It's like saying that the sun will come up tomorrow.
     
  3. crimsonghost747

    crimsonghost747 Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2014
    Posts:
    1,722
    Likes Received:
    6
    Not sure about most of those... I guess only time will tell. Also I always wonder why people think it's great if this guy has been in the financial business for decades... if I'd be good and capable of predicting the future then I guess that in 10 to 20 years I'd be retired enjoying a cold beer on a warm beach with a couple of bikini models.. not writing articles for a newspaper.
     
  4. Annabell

    Annabell Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2014
    Posts:
    95
    Likes Received:
    2
    Everyone has to have a retirement plan. Maybe this is his I suppose.
     
  5. JR Ewing

    JR Ewing Super Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    Feb 2014
    Posts:
    4,950
    Likes Received:
    39

    Those who are REALLY great, rich, and smart - like Buffett, Yacktman, Icahn, and Schwarzman - will tell you point blank they don't know what will happen tomorrow, next month, or in the next year, and that you can't be 100% sure of anything, can't really time the market with anything near 100% success, etc.
     
  6. Annabell

    Annabell Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2014
    Posts:
    95
    Likes Received:
    2
    I can be sure the sun will rise tomorrow ;)

    Sadly I don't think I can make money off of that fact.
     
  7. crimsonghost747

    crimsonghost747 Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2014
    Posts:
    1,722
    Likes Received:
    6
    But you can't predict it with a 100% certainty. :p
    And yes that would be a good deal to bet your money on, since in the odd case that it doesn't come up I don't think you'd worry about the lost money.
     
  8. Annabell

    Annabell Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2014
    Posts:
    95
    Likes Received:
    2
    I dunno, I'm pretty damn sure I could predict it with 100% certainty, given all the information out there, and no knowledge that says it won't rise tomorrow.
     
  9. crimsonghost747

    crimsonghost747 Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2014
    Posts:
    1,722
    Likes Received:
    6
    So you are saying that there is an absolute 0% chance of some major catastrophe happening? I do agree that it's very very unlikely that anything like that will happen, but there is still the possibility of it. (though it's probably measured in billionths of a percentage)
     
  10. SteakTartare

    SteakTartare Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2014
    Posts:
    857
    Likes Received:
    11
    Well, eventually the sun will use up all the hydrogen and it will reach the end of its life. Thankfully that is an estimated 7 billion years from now, so the aforementioned prediction will probably hold true for a while. ;)
     

Share This Page