We're just in a rough patch right mow. The fundamentals of the economy arw the best they've been in years. Long term I'm pretty optimistic. In times like these its important not to overreact to the day to day fluctuation in market numbers. Keep your eyes focused long term and youll make better decisions.
There, fixed it for you! Other parts of the world aren't looking that great, Asia is slowing down (though still growing nicely) and Europe is a total and utter mess. (like expected) Canada as well as South America are struggling with the low oil prices, though this is something that I assume will be a short term problem. I still think we need these rough patches now more than ever since the S&P500 is too high. But we are edging closer to the levels where I feel comfortable throwing some more money in.. eyeing PG at the moment to increase my position.
Starting to see some nice rebounding in most of my favorite energy names. I bought some Intercept Pharma at around $170 not long ago after it sold off hard. I took half of that off the table yesterday @ a good 20%+ profit when it jumped back up well over $200 on a drug approval. Other biotechs like Medivation and Tekmira have been doing well. My pretty big purchase of Hologic late last year has been paying off - another ~ 20% gain there recently as well. Amazon and Netfix also had big days on earnings in the last week or so.
The Euro has fallen compared to the US dollar. Greece has elected a very liberal government. Those Greeks do not want to continue tightening their economic or financial belts. They do not or will not face austere measures. What's more the Saudis are churning out oil no matter how low the price of crude falls. Then there are layoffs in the US states of Montana's and North Dakota's oil industries. Then those industries require or order less equipment from Caterpillar and other manufacturers. Wouldn't all of those scenarios affect the stock market? It is a wonder how the Dow is still above 17,000.
Amazon had an awesome Friday! I don't mind these red days, as for me, that means it is time to buy. I did great selling Jet Blue at almost a 20% gain, and it probably would go higher too but I wanted to free the money to invest in other things. Like seasoned investors tell you, remain calm and patient. Never panic... And at first, it is hard to heed to that advice, but now I notice myself maintaining rational thinking even during the bad days. I hope that bodes well for my future investing.
I wish that I had been sharper on Amazon. That's the sort of thing I would love to have bought on Thursday and then suddenly realizing that I should think about selling on the Friday. I need a few more panic days to take advantage of.
The new greek government has accounced that they are NOT looking to borrow more money from the IMF or ECB. With about 9 billion euros worth of debt expiring this year, in laymans terms that means that (if they stick to this decision) either they will manage to renegotiate their debts or they will default. Personally I see the ECB/IMF letting them get off the hook again... probably by extending the debt repayment schedule, changing the interest rate to 0% (not sure if it's higher than that at the moment) and probably by accepting a small cut to the debts. Greece is going for 50% cut but I doubt they will ever get that much, then again with 0% interest and the ability to push back the payment dates it doesn't really matter how much they owe.
Grabbed a pretty big position in Westlake Chemical today, along with smaller positions in Sasol and Lyondell Bassell. All 3 of these specialty chems have been hammered pretty good in the last 4-5 months and look like bargains to me right about now. I hedged with a put against PPG, another good specialty chem that appears to be a little too hot these days IMO.
I'm guessing they should be pretty decent plays on lower oil prices? I suppose the other side of the coin is that they are more sensitive to global demand than commodity chemicals.
