He's making his guesses using the same data as every other economic forecaster and 50% will be on the mark and 50% won't. The only instincts you can trust are your own if you are an investor. Saying that. 4% growth in the US sounds like a quantative easing result rather than organic trade so I'll be ignoring that.
I definitely agree about the European Crisis. I think this is going to play a major role in the US stock market. I am very leery of making any major moves right now. There is so much uncertainty.
I read her post about deficit. In there she says, "Consider some statistical facts. Interest rates are lower today than at any time in history, meaning that governments find it easier to borrow money than ever before. This hardly suggests impending bankruptcy." That's the same fallacious argument for "This dude is making me 10% per month. Absolutely nothing can go wrong!." Some decades not too long ago, Greece had interest rates within a quarter point of Germany's. When their bonds went to 8% yields, I made some calls to my personal broker for inquiries whether there was some way for me to buy some. Fortunately, they could not help me. (They since went to 25%+ yields, and if I had bought some would've been a 70% loss). By the author's poor reasoning, interest rates are low, so lets run around and borrow another $5T per year. Because nothing can go wrong! There are extremely, extremely complex interdynamics for why United States rates are so low right now, that can't be described through classical economics. The federal reserve is giving free money to banks, under a system that was intended to be utilized to loan money to individuals and businesses, but the banks are using it to buy these bonds instead, because they believe that every house or business will probably lose money!
I agree yes, while the US has been growing already in Europe and Japan it's not the same case, in fact, 2014 will not be much different from 2013. Money will have to come from emerging markets.
I don't think there are very risky predictions, I think most people could make the same, except for the 4% though, but I think that's probably the one that is hardest for him to get right. We'll see how it turns out.
The stock market will probably see lukewarm gains, and is likely to have a minor correction around spring, but I don't believe it will soar to new heights as it had this year. But at least, there won't be a crash that way. Experts say gold will maintain at around the current levels with possibly some occasional sudden drops and decent rises, swinging at a $100 ceiling in either direction in total.
A market analyst uncle of mine told me that the recovery of the housing market will most likely lose momentum, and maybe even see a small decline due to the slowly rising interest rates. Areas of increased prices will be major metropolitan areas that see some job growth and quite possibly some international buyers (especially Chinese people with high net worth) seeking a nice, stable place for capital.
That's happening in my country, lots of Chinese people have been buying real estate and getting golden visas and that is creating a small bubble in this area, I just wonder how long is this going to last.
No, i dont agree with those predictions , those were just imaginary outline predictions, i never agree with this
With the first three of them I'd definitely agree. We've seen outcome of those already. USA economy is on the rise again, and there is crisis in Europe, again. Only thing I doubt is that Japan will underperform. Main reason why they did so in past years was Fukushima, they had to spend tons of money on it. Since that sorted out, I assume that they are going to be back on track now.
