It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks. I was an exit poller for Super Tuesday here in VA..and I was gratified to see how close the vote was between Trump and Rubio. I think Kasich would have done a little better here, but he only made on campaign appearance, and ran no ads. Cruz only made one stop too, although he does have some dedicated supporters, there were a few stationed at the precinct.
I think Kasich was praying for a win in Vermont, just to get him in the discussion again. He spent almost all his time up there and Mass. The conversation today would be totally different if Rubio had lost Minnesota and Kasich had won Vermont. The media and american people are wrong about the way they view these states. ´ Winning´ a state should not matter nearly as much as it does for the media. More important is just the delegate count as well as winning in states where you are supposed to win. For instance, in my view Cruz was the biggest loser last night despite winning 3 states. Cruz is Huckabee/Santarum. But he lost Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama (and SC), which Huckabee and Santorum won. Despite having won 3 states, he is the one with no path forward because the states he SHOULD have won in have already passed. He may win Lousianna and Mississipi, but in the end, he is going to win less states than Huckabee and Santorum. The Republican party is controlled by Friends of Bush, so they put all the southern states early in the primary season to give southern candidates an advantage. That is Kasich´s whole argument. The psychological deck is stacked against him because Cruz is getting delegates only because southern states vote first. Look at northern states. New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachessuttes... Kasich came in second in all 3 and crushed Cruz.
Kasich and Rubio should get behind Cruz. A good chunk of Carson's votes will go to Cruz, and Rubio and Kasich's votes will go to Cruz over Trump. Some of Cruz's votes would go to Trump and not Rubio.
But they, and the establishment still hates Cruz more than Trump. These guys have hated Cruz for 5 years now, it is hard to swallow that and get behind him, even in the face of Trump getting the nomination. I believe that is the reason things just kept getting delayed and delayed.. Everyone wants to stop Trump, but so many of them hate Cruz that it took them months to realize Trump is the greater of the two evils... and now it is too late. I also think there are people who want the Republicans to win, even if it is with Trump. Trump shakes up the electoral map and his antics are crazy enough that he could beat Hillary in some crazy type of election. Cruz has no chance of winning and would have a smaller electoral map than Romney had. And nominating and losing with Cruz would move the party more towards the right-wing whackos. Cruz is only seen as the opponent of Trump because his home state happened to be on the electoral map before Rubio and Kasich. To me, Cruz is the biggest loser because he lost all the SEC states which were supposed to be his base. He lost states that Huckabee and Santorum won..
Kasich failed to take Michigan. Right now polls are showing a Trump lead in Ohio. It is pretty much game-over for Kasich. It's too bad because during a normal cycle, he probably would have done quite well. Actually, some of the other governors would have too. But this isn't an normal election cycle, by any definition.
Another thing to consider I think should be is Trump winning these states because he's the best option, or is it because he's seen as the best of a bad bunch? Are people voting for the one they dislike the least, rather than the one they like the most, because if that is the case, then that could all change round very quickly. At the moment your right, it's not over, I just think that for now Trump as got on to a bit of a roll and that's going to be hard to claw back.
I'm watching the polls tonight and it is just too close to call between Kasich and Trump in Ohio. Considering his solid record as governor of the Buckeye State that he'd be doing much better. If Kasich wins Ohio, it will breath new life into his campaign, at least for a while. If not, game over, and it is a two man race between Trump and Cruz. The establishment won't like it, but that is the same crew that chose such classic losers as Ford, Dole, McCain and Romney.
Someone's got to give Trump a challenge. Someone's got to divide the votes. If not Kasich, then who? I'm glad he's still in the running. I saw the voting figures between the Republicans and Democrats. Trump may have won in several states but he only won by a flaky plurality, an oh so small margin. If you look at Democrat votes for Hillary and Sanders, both of them garnered thousands of votes, Hillary leaving her competitor by a large margin, four to five times the number of votes Trump received from Republicans. I just hope this trend is predicting the future.
That is devastating to the supporters of Kasich considering what you said that it's almost over for Kasich. One of my colleagues said that Trump may be destined to become the US president because despite of the criticisms he gets and the resurrecting of old issues like bankruptcy, he remains on top of the heap. And although he suffers defeats once in a while, he rebounds and never had relinquished the lead to his opponents. And in the end, it is easy to predict that Trump will be the standard bearer for the Republican team whether his opponents like it or not.
He's received the money he needed from Soros and Koch to keep going. They all have at some point, even Bernie, but especially Hillary. It isn't going to be seen negatively by them or any of their supporters for the long run, even though it probably should be. Money places the pieces on the board where they need them to be, and there are always willing players and participants for that no matter which politicial, financial, or belief designation and delegation they subscribe to. He isn't really meant to try to win, just to try and be a contender to make it seem like there are more options than there actually are. Whether he wins longer or loses immediately, he's going to have personal and financial wins just for being a part of all of this. Politicians and key political and financial roles do not make 25 million as so many do from a 50 to $100,000 a year salary alone. They don't have to be Harry Reid or Goldman-Sachs to enjoy those benefits either. It's just what they do, and they all do it now.
