Allison2021 has laid down the explanation quite well, just read her thread, it explains it, especially last sentence, hence 'marionette strings.'
He may have a point, prior to armageddon or end of the world, there just might be a one world system.
Sorry but I am still confused. It appears to me, (but I may be wrong), that the consensus on this thread is 'its ok for Ukraine not to pay its gas bill'. As for pulling strings in geopolitics, that is what all politicians do, some better than others. Europe, (especially Germany), has far more to lose than Russia from sanctions. Europe is being pressured by the U.S to impose sanctions. As far as OPEC flooding the market with cheap oil... dream on. Gas for Europe is the issue and only Russia holds the key to that at the moment and any political ambitions of the U.S to supply Europe with LNG are doomed to failure as the U.S is hard pushed to service its own needs and currently has record low storage levels. As for price, Ukraine has been offered gas by Russia at one of the cheapest prices available to Europe, (circa $360 whilst many are paying up to $500). Under contract, Europe cannot resell Russian gas to Ukraine and ethically nor should they. Also European industrialists are defying the 'sanctions' and making it clear they will continue to do business with Russia anyway. Russia is noted and valued for its reliability as a trading partner, even at the height of the Cold War. That reputation is extremely valuable.
The only thing I noticed happening after Russia flexed its muscles was that neighboring counties, that are heavily dependent on Russian gas, started taking about alternatives. So yeah, I don't think that the world market will be affected, Russia also needs the revenue from selling gas, especially in a time where alternatives are plausible.
This thread is an example of the noise that surrounds all of us - the noise that prevents all of you that are typing here from actually investing. Under all of your names in these posts, it says "investor" - yet, many of you have no conception of how to make money in Russia right now. To the person that posted this thread - I posted a Russian play two weeks earlier that offered an investment, links to perform research, and a simple forecast. You ignored it, because you didn't read it, because you aren't here to learn, you are here to make conversation. ERUS. The thread has been on the first page of this World Market forum for weeks. In response to some of the other issues raised here, 2018 is a ridiculous timeframe for a foreign investment. Unless you are actually building physical structures, you shouldn't care what the Russian economy will look like in 2018 - you should care what it looks like in 3 or 6 months. If you want to talk World Cup, but BRAQ - a Brazilian Consumer Index. I also posted an article about BRAQ that you ignored. This will be my last post in this thread - I posted to announce to the rest of you that I am here, making money. Stop chattering with people that have no intention of investing. Your time is the most valuable asset you have - stop wasting it. I own ERUS, so I own Gazprom, so the little girl that thinks Putin is a bad man and flys her Ukrainian flag from her bathroom window - well, her opinion means nothing to me, or anyone else that actually INVESTS MONEY! Ukraine will pay for natural gas, sanctions will be lifted, and I will sell ERUS and RUSL for 20-40% profits. Yes, I said 20-40% profits, and in less than 1 year. Conflicts create opportunity. Come on over to the danger zone...
I didn't mean for that post to sound so negative. I apologize. It is frustrating when you are trying to offer help and no one can hear or see you. Today, the Russian ETF's that I have recommended have blown up for huge gains. I was hoping more of you would have been in on this one. But, I shouldn't be so negative, and there is still plenty of time. Good luck and God bless your investments.
Some of us are already very experienced investors who do our own thing. There are a million ways to skin a cat. I started with $100k in a taxable account 20 years ago that I've added hundreds of thousands more to over that time, and I've averaged 15% on it. I've also been maxing out retirement plans during that time and averaging roughly 12%. Do the math... Plus I have been investing for others for many years as well. I've found that these "events" don't always go your way - sometimes they do, sometimes they don't. And even if they do, they don't always move markets and securities the way you might hope. Regardless, I never bet the ranch (nor my internet pride or ego) on anything.
Bottom line is you must pay for what you use or get. Now I will agree that Russia may not have taken the hardline stance if they were not in a spat with Ukraine. Now with supplies to the rest of Europe likely to be affected, then chances are good that the stock market will take note and respond.
I don't think this will affect the world market if Russia decides to cut gas supply to the Ukraine. A lot of what is happening in Russia is within their respective regions. The Global Market will not suffer from a decision because too many resources exist elsewhere. This is not to belittle Russia's importance on the world scale, but they are not a deal breaker in terms of markets taking a downturn base on their decision to stop supplying Ukraine with gas. If anything Ukraine will suffer the most from any economic decision made by Russia, which is why there is so much conflict right now in the region.
