Polls... why Kasich?

Discussion in 'Politics Discussion' started by petesede, Mar 22, 2016.

  1. petesede

    petesede Guest

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  2. erook7878

    erook7878 Well-Known Member

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    I find this puzzling. I guess Kasich is moderate enough to get the independent vote from Hillary. I just don't see the left-leaning independents voting for Kasich or any republican no matter what. Hillary does a great job pandering to whatever is popular and she will cleanup the women and minority vote. I don't see anyone on the Republican side defeating her in a national election.
     
  3. petesede

    petesede Guest

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    If Hillary is the nominee, every Republican and their neighbor will be voting for Kasich. Since I made that post a month ago, the polls continue to tell the same story, Kasich is beating both Hillary and Bernie in the national polls, and not only that is making a lot of mid-western and Atlantic states competitive. Of the three, Kasich is the only one that will win a state that Romney did not win. Trump is currently losing to Hillary by 15%, and even in states like NY and NJ which he brags that he can win, he is losing by double digits. Despite all his talk about Independents, Trump will have the same electoral map as Cruz, which is going to be almost identical to Romney.
     
  4. gmckee1985

    gmckee1985 Senior Investor

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    I'm more conservative than Kasich, but I'd vote for him if he were the nominee of course. I think he does well in the polls because he comes across as a pragmatic and sane guy. He's a bomb thrower, and he's willing to compromise. That usually appeals to moderates and independents. Frankly, I wish he'd attack Trump more because he could probably win some of these north eastern states if he had run a more aggressive campaign. He's still a long shot to win at the convention, but it wouldn't surprise me if more people started taking a look at him.
     
  5. MakeDollarsSense

    MakeDollarsSense Well-Known Member

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    The polls are not always accurate, and often times skewed. I think that this is the case in the polls being referenced. Kasich does not have a chance to garner any more support from the democrats side, and is not very popular on the republican side. Chances are if he's the nominee, which isn't possible at this point, then Hillary gets the nomination. That's just my two cents on the matter.
     
  6. Rainman

    Rainman Senior Investor

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    Though the polls do indicate that Kasich might be the GOP's best candidate since he won't be winning this nomination outright and should the nomination be "stolen" from Trump his supporters obviously won't vote for the Republican nominee so I have a firm belief that Kasich even if somehow he gets the GOP's nomination, he won't win the presidency.
     
  7. erook7878

    erook7878 Well-Known Member

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    "Every Republican and their neighbor." That really doesn't say much. The Republican electorate is simply not enough to win a national election. Especially a Presidential national election where millennials and minorities come out to vote, unlike midterm elections. Romney had the Republican electorate and he lost pretty comfortably to Obama in 2012. The electorate that voted for Obama will be the ones voting for Hillary. Kasich is not even going to touch the millennial/women/minority vote against Hillary. The Republicans have a big issue in that they do not have a "sexy" candidate that can steal the minority and women vote from Hillary. The "sexy" candidate they have is Trump and you can see how great he's doing with women and minority voters lol.
     
  8. gmckee1985

    gmckee1985 Senior Investor

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    There's no way Hillary is going to get as high a percentage of the vote as Obama. She's just not nearly as an impressive candidate as he is. He only got 53% in his first election and 51% in the second. So while the Democrats do have an advantage in presidential years, it's not a very big one.
     
  9. petesede

    petesede Guest

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    The Republicans are screwed no matter what. You are right, if either Cruz or Kasich get the nomination, they will lose a lot of Trump supporters. There is no way in hell Trump loses and leaves in any dignified way. Heck, after he lost Wisconsin he went on a rant. Trump cannot win. You can´t lose 90% of blacks, 85% of latinos and 70% of women and even get close. The Republicans are going to lose to probably the worst Dem that the Dems have put up since Dukakis.

    But here is what Kasich does, he moves the party to the middle. So far he hasn´t hammered on abortion or gay rights, he hasn´t gone extreme in any of the social issues that are making Reps lose the Presidency, and he gives a solid, good man at the top of the ticket that would prevent the Rs from losing the senate and a big chunk of the house. The Rs need to get away from the social issues, and instead focus on the economy if they are ever going to want to win again.
     
  10. petesede

    petesede Guest

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    The overall numbers really aren´t that important. Just my opinion, but to win an electoral college victory, the Rs probably have to win the national vote by 2%. And each election cycle the map turns more in favor of the dems. Hillary can get 50% and still recreate Obama´s 2008 map, which is about what will happen against Cruz.
     

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