Date : 3rd April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd April 2018. FX News Today European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -0.8 bp at 0.484% in early trade, amid a broad dip in Eurozone long yields and in tandem with a -1.5 bp decline in 10-year JGB yields. The start of the new quarter didn’t bring an improvement in stock market sentiment and Eurozone stock futures are selling off in catch up trade, after the long Easter weekend and a fresh sell off on Wall Street yesterday that saw the NASDAQ closing with a loss of -2.74%. Asian markets also corrected further overnight, albeit less so. Treasuries are also underperforming today and the 10-year up 1.1 bp on the day at 2.741%. German retail sales at the start of the session unexpectedly declined and manufacturing PMIs out of the Eurozone and the U.K. are also expected to show waning confidence, thus adding to concerns that the recovery is fizzling out. FX Update: The dollar majors continued to ply narrow ranges as markets returned to full force following the long weekend in European and elsewhere. EURUSD continued in a narrow range around the 1.2300 mark, and has been unmoved by unexpected weakness in German retail sales data. USDJPY lifted to a intraday high of 106.03 amid general, albeit moderate, yen softness, which occurred as stock markets in Asia pared intraday losses. This put in a little space from yesterday’s low at 105.66. Data and news developments were thin on the ground in Asia today, while market participants remain weary about trade wars and tech sector woes. All three of the major U.S. indices yesterday closed more than 10% below January highs. The RBA held its cash rate on hold at 1.50%, as had been widely anticipated, and the statement didn’t bring any surprises, largely being a repeat of the last one, noting improving growth prospects but with inflation expected to remain benign and repeating the view that any appreciation in the Australian dollar would result in a slower pick up in economic activity and inflation. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today Eurozone manufacturing PMI – The March Eurozone manufacturing PMI is expected to be confirmed at the 56.6 preliminary report, and is down from the 60.6 December print. UK Manufacturing PMI – expected to come in with a headline reading of 54.7 after February’s 54.5. German Manufacturing PMI – expected to remain unchanged at 58.4. Fedspeeches – The dove Kashkari will be at a regional economic forum, while Governor Brainard speaks on financial stability. Support and Resistance levels . Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 4th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th April 2018. FX News Today European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 0.3 bp at 0.501% in opening trade, still outperforming Treasuries and JGBs, which are up 0.4 bp and 0.6 bp at 2.779% and 0.021% respectively. Stock markets meanwhile fluctuated in Asia after a positive close on Wall Street, with trade tensions coming back to haunt investors.Nikkei and Topix are up 0.24% and 0.21% respectively, but trade jitters continue to hang over markets as investors await China’s response in the latest escalation of the trade tensions with the U.S. U.K. stock futures are heading south, in tandem with U.S. futures and as the pound strengthens. GER30 and FRA40 futures meanwhile posted slight gains in opening trade. Oil prices are down and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 63.29 per barrel. Today’s calendar focuses on the preliminary reading of March HICP inflation, seen accelerating to 1.4% y/y from 1.1%. The U.K. Construction PMI as well as a German 5-year Bond auction are also due. FX Update: The major pairings have posted limited ranges so far today. The yen saw some fresh weakness in early Asian trade, while the Aussie dollar rallied moderately on strong retail sales data out of Australia. EURUSD chopped around in the upper 1.2200s, dipping toward 1.2270 in the latest phase. Yesterday’s two-week low is at 1.2253. AUDUSD clocked an eight-day high of 0.7717 before ebbing back under 0.7700. USDJPY edged out a six-day high of 106.65 in early Tokyo and has since remained buoyant. The rebound on Wall Street yesterday initially aided the yen lower before a less certain tone in Asian stock markets, along with declines in U.S. equity index futures, seemed to halt the yen’s downside progress. The early salvos of what looks to be shaping up to be a US-Sino trade war remains a concern for investors. Beijing will reportedly be detailing its tariffs on U.S. imports later. In data, Japan’s March services PMI fell to a 50.9 reading, down from 51.7 in the previous month, and the composite PMI worked out at 51.3, down from 52.2 in February. Australian retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in February, double the median forecast, while building approvals came in near to expectations at -6.2% m/m. China’s Caixin March composite PMI sank to 51.8 from February’s 53.3. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today UK Construction PMI – expected to ebb to a 51.0 reading after 51.4 in the month prior. EU CPI & Unemployment Rate – an acceleration in the headline inflation rate is expected up to 1.4% y/y from 1.1% y/y in the previous month, with a slight risk to the upside after higher than anticipated Italian and French numbers.Unemployment Rate anticipated to slow down a bit at 8.5% from 8.6% last month. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – should drop to 208K from February’s 235K. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – is seen declining to 59.0 after the 59.5 in March and the jump to 59.9 in February. Crude Oil Inventories Support and Resistance level Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 5th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th April 2018. FX News Today European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 1.3 bp at 0.509% in opening trade, after a broad move higher in long yields across Asia. 10-year JGB yields are up 1.1 bp at 0.030%, the 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.7 bp at 2.81%, as stock markets continued to move higher during the Asian session after a late rally in the U.S. U.S. and European stock futures are also moving higher, with the DAX future up 1.25% and pointing to early gains in the index, which still closed with a loss yesterday. Weaker than expected German manufacturing orders at the start of the session failed to dent optimism that an all out trade war can be avoided, although trade rhetoric will keep markets on tenterhooks and volatility high. Today’s calendar still has Eurozone and U.K. services PMIs as well as Eurozone producer prices and retail sales. FX Update: The dollar has been trading firmer so far today, correlating with an improvement in risk appetite, with the flipside of the sentiment seeing the yen underperform moderately as the Japanese currency seeing some of its safe haven premium unwind. Japan’s Nikkie 225 closed with a 1.5% gain, while S&P futures are showing a 0.4% gain after the cash index closed out the regular session on Wall Street yesterday with a 1.2% advance. The view, or hope perhaps, is that the U.S. and China are more likely to negotiate than actually implement a trade war. The announced tariff hikes haven’t been implemented yet, and there is time in place for talks to happen. Proof will be in the pudding, however, and investors are likely to remain wary. USDJPY lifted above 107.00, logging a three-week high of 107.02. EURUSD ebbed under 1.2300, towards 1.2250, seemingly breaking free of the apparent orbit of recent sessions around the 1.2300 level. The greenback also posted gains versus the antipodean dollars and most currencies in the emerging and newly-development world. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today * EU Service PMI – The services reading is projected at 55.3 and is off of the 58.0 high from January. These would leave the composite at 55.5, lower than the 57.1 in February, as well as the 58.8 January high. * UK Service PMI – anticipated t0 to slip to 54.0 from 54.5. * Canadian Trade Balance – The trade deficit is expected to widen to -C$2.1 bln in February from -C$1.9 bln in January. Exports are seen improving 0.5% m/m after the 2.1% drop in January. Imports are projected to expand 0.8% after a 4.3% plunge. * US Unemployment Claims – seem at 225K from 215K last week. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 6th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th April 2018. FX News Today European Fixed Income Outlook: The 10-year Bund yield is down -1.2 bp at 0.507% in early trade, trailing Treasuries, which are down -1.8 bp at 2.814%. European stock futures are selling off, led by the German DAX future, which is down -0.9%, in the wake of a sell off in U.S. futures after Trump threatened additional USD 100 bln worth of China tariffs. China was quick to threaten retaliation, and while reports of the willingness to talk on the side of the U.S. helped to lift Asian markets off early lows, sentiment remains fragile. The Nikkei closed with a loss of -0.36% in the end, the ASX was unchanged at the close, while the Hang Seng outperformed in catch up trade, after coming back from the holidays. Weaker than expected German production data at the start of the session did nothing to lift sentiment, leaving markets to mull trade developments ahead of key U.S. payroll data in the PM session. FX Update: The dollar weakened and then firmed during the pre-London open session in Asia, with markets roiled by Trump’s threat for further tariffs against China and a retaliatory pledge to fight back by Beijing before finding some solace form a Reuters report citing a U.S. official saying that Washington was willing to negotiate if China “is serious.” USDJPY recouped to the mid 107.0s after logging a low of 106.99. The pair has remained below the six-week high posted yesterday at 107.49, which capped a three-day run higher. EURUSD traded lower after posting an intraday peak at 1.2260, logging a low of 1.2227, but the pair remain above yesterday’s low at 1.2218. Asian stocks lifted out of intraday lows, though European and U.S. equity index futures are firmly down, with Eurostoxx futures down 0.8% and S&P 500 futures off by over 1%. The offshore CNY extended lower, making $6.3043 today, with the 0.7% loss this week in the Chinese currency marking the biggest weekly decline since last October. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today * Canadian Employment Data – the employment report, is expected to show a 25.0k in March after the 15.4k gain in February and 88.0k plunge in January. The unemployment rate is seen holding at a 40-year low 5.8%. Average hourly wages are projected to gain 0.3% in March (m/m, sa) after the 0.3% gain in February, boosting the annual growth rate to 3.4% in March from 3.1%. That would be firmest annual growth rate since the matching pace in November of 2015. * US NFP data– 193K increase is anticipated after the stellar 313k February surge. The unemployment rate is seen falling to 4.0%. * US Average Hourly Earnings –Average hourly earnings are projected rising 0.2% after the tepid 0.1% prior gain, which calmed inflation anxiety that followed the strong 0.3% and 0.4% respective gains in January and December. * BOE Gov Carney & Fed Chair Powell Speeches Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 9th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th April 2018. Main Macro Events This Week It was a tumultuous first week of the quarter that has left the markets caught between more truculent tweets on trade from President Trump, and slightly more diplomatic messages from his advisers. Predictably China countered with $50 bln in tariffs of their own against a variety of U.S. imports, while the White House threatened to lump on another $100 bln tariffs to the $50 bln already on the table. Fed Chairman Powell remained bullish on the economy in his speech on the outlook, suggesting “gradualism” remained intact, while in Q&A he felt it was premature to draw implications from the tariff threats either for inflation or growth. United States: The calendar will home back in on inflation stats for March in a timely fashion, hot on the heels of the 0.3% uptick on average hourly earnings embedded in the March payrolls report. PPI is forecast (Tuesday) rising 0.2% in March, though the annual pace will speed up to 2.9% y/y from 2.8% y/y. The core PPI is seen rising 0.2% as well versus 0.2% previously, with a steady 2.5% y/y. Wholesale sales are projected (Tuesday) to increase 0.6% in February vs -1.1% in January, while inventories are seen 0.2% firmer. The MBA mortgage market report is out (Wednesday), along with overall March CPI expected to edge up 0.1% vs 0.2%, with core CPI seen up 0.2%, as was the case in February. Annual rates should move a tad higher too, with the headline pace seen at 2.4% from 2.2% y/y, while the core rate firms to 2.1% from 1.8%. This will be the first 2-handle since March 2017, but it won’t trigger a response from the FOMC as CPI is not the Fed’s preferred measure. The Treasury budget deficit (Wednesday) may widen to $186 bln in March from $176 bln year-ago levels. Import prices are forecast (Thursday) to increase 0.4% in March versus February’s 0.4%, while export prices may rise 0.2%, the same as in February. Initial jobless claims are presumed to correct back down 17k to 225k for the week ended April 7 (Thursday). Rounding out the week (Friday) are Michigan sentiment and the Fed’s JOLTS job openings. Fedspeak and the FOMC minutes will be highlights this week after the “gradualist” tone from Chairman Powell in Friday’s speech set the stage for steady policy near term. There are several Fedspeakers this week, but none are voters. Hawk Kaplan will be in Beijing and will be speaking Monday, The dove Kashkari will do another moderated Q&A Thursday. Rosengren, Bullard, andKaplan will also be on the wires on Friday the 13th. The FOMC minutes to Powell’s first meeting in March as Chairman could be interesting. Earnings season kicks off again from Thursday – Fastenal and BlackRock and then a rash of financial firms — Citigroup, First Republic Bank, Infosys, JP Morgan Chase, PNC Financial, Wells Fargo on Friday. Expectations are for strong results, and possible upside potential as the S&P 500 and the DJIA30 ended the week close to their 200 day moving averages. Canada: The calendar is headlined by the BoC’s Q1 Business Outlook Survey (Monday), expected to reveal some slippage in business sentiment, a tighter capacity backdrop, increased labour shortages but still well contained inflation expectations. In other words, the report will be supportive of no change in the 1.25% rate setting next week. Housing starts (Monday) are projected to fall to 220.0k in March from 229.7k in February. Building permit values are expected to dip 1.0% in February after the 5.6% bounce in January. The new housing price index is seen falling 0.1% in February after the flat reading in January. Teranet/National HPI for March is due Thursday. Existing home sales (Friday) close out the week, with a 3.0% m/m decline anticipated, as the rate of contraction moderates after the -6.5% fall in February and record 14.5% plunge in January. Europe: Light calendar with mainly final inflation data for March, which are unlikely to hold major surprises. Expect HICP rates to be confirmed at 1.7% for France (Thursday), 1.1% for Italy (Thursday), 1.5% for German HICP (Friday) and 1.3% for Spain (Friday), which should leave the Eurozone HICP (due the following week) at 1.4% y/y, up from 1.2% y/y in February. German trade data for February (Monday), as well as Eurozone trade which could well attract more interest than usual amid the ongoing trade tensions. Expectations are for a slight rise in German exports of 0.2% m/m, after the -0.5% m/m drop in January. ECBspeak will be closely monitored. Officials are likely to continue to strike a balance with hawkish comments from Weidmann (Thursday) countered by softer tones from other central bankers scheduled to speak, including Draghi(Wednesday) and Constancio (Monday). The ECB also publishes the minutes of the March policy meeting, when the central bank decided to finally remove the easing bias on rates from the policy guidance. Japan: The February current account surplus (Monday) is expected to widen to JPY 2,000 bln from 607.4 bln previously. March consumer confidence (Monday) is seen improving to 44.6 from 44.3. February machine orders (Wednesday) are penciled in at down 4.0% m/m from up 8.2%, while March PPI is forecast to slip to 1.9% y/y from 2.5%. The impact of the firmer JPY on inflation was likely offset by firmer crude oil prices. March bank loan figures are due Wednesday and finally a speech for the BOJ’s Kuroda is set for Thursday. UK: Fundamental leads have been blurred by inclement weather in the last data month, which largely accounted for the big misses in last week’s March PMI survey outcomes. The calendar this week kicks off with the BRC retail sales report for March (Monday), with expectations of a 0.1% headline decline in the same-store figure. Industrial production for February is also up (Wednesday), with expectations of rises of 0.4% m/m and 2.9% y/y. respectively). Trade data for February is also due (also Wednesday), where forecasts are for a GBP 11.9 deficit in the visible goods balance. China: Release March loan growth and new yuan loans (likely Tuesday), with the former seen at an unchanged 12.8% y/y rate, and the latter at CNY 1,000 bln from 839.3 bln previously. March CPI (Wednesday) likely slipped to a 2.5% y/y pace after almost doubling to 2.9% in February from 1.5% in January. March PPI (Wednesday) is forecast at 3.3% y/y from 3.7%. The March trade report (Friday) will be of interest given all the fuss over trade and tariffs, though it won’t show any real effects. It should reveal a narrowed surplus of $29.0 bln from $33.7 bln in February. Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Lowe speaks (Wednesday) on “Regional Variation in a National Economy.” The Financial Stability Review is due Friday. Economic data is thin this week, but has housing investment (Thursday), expected to dip 0.5% in February after the 1.1% decline in January. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 10th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th April 2018. FX News Today Asian Market Wrap: Conciliatory words on trade from China’s President Xi Jinping, who pledged greater openness in sectors from banking to auto manufactures while warning against a return to a “Cold War mentality” helped to calm nerves and underpinned stocks, while weighing on safe haven assets, especially in the U.S.. 10-year JGB yields are up 0.1 bp at 0.025%, 10-year Treasury yields are up 2.6 bp and back above the 2.8% mark. Stock markets meanwhile have moved broadly higher, Nikkei and Topix are up 0.54% and 0.33% respectively, the Hang Seng outperformed again and gained 1.12% so far and the CSI 300 is up 0.48%. U.S. stock futures are rallying and up more than 1% across, Dow Jones, S&P and NASDAQ, with the latter outperforming. Oil prices also benefited from the risk on environment and the front end USOil future is trading at USD 63.83 per barrel. An all round risk on environment, then, at least for now. FX Update: USDJPY edged out a two-session high following a fresh bout of general yen weakness. Chinese President Xi’s keynote speech earlier mollified investor anxieties by de-ratcheting the trade war rhetoric by pledging that Chinese economy will open up and will lower import tariffs on vehicles, and although details were limited, this managed to lift stock markets in Asia, along with U.S. and European stock index futures. The Nikkei 225 gained by 0.8%, while S&P 500 futures were showing a 1.1% advance. The yen weakened against this backdrop as safe haven positions unwound. USD-JPY clocked a two-session high at 107.24 before settling slightly off here. The pair has support at 106.77-80. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today USA PPI – It is expected to show a further improvement in sentiment and a rise in the headline reading to 2.6% 3 from 2.5% last time. MoM figures are expected to see the headline slip to 0.1% from 0.2% and the key Core figure remain unchanged at 0.2%. CAD Housing Starts – Are expected to fall to 220.0k unit pace in March from 229.7k in February. Building permit values, also due Tuesday, are expected to dip 1.0% (m/m, sa) in February after the 5.6% bounce in January. The permits and starts reports lead a full week of housing data. The new housing price index (Thursday) is seen falling 0.1% (m/m, sa) in February after the flat reading in January. Teranet/National HPI for March is due Thursday. Existing home sales (Friday) close out the week, with a 18.0% y/y decline anticipated in March following the 16.9% y/y drop in February. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Senior Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 17th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th April 2018. European Outlook: Stocks in Asia traded narrowly mixed, with the Nikkei up a mere 0.02%, the ASX up 0.07% and Hang Seng and CSI 300, which tanked yesterday, underperforming once again and down -0.40% and -0.87% respectively, despite as expected GDP numbers out of China. China’s GDP grew 6.8% y/y in Q1 following the identical 6.8% y/y rise in Q4. GER30 futures are moving higher in tandem with U.S. futures as comments from Praet seemed to confirm that the ECB is not ready to commit to an end date for QE just year. UK100 futures meanwhile are heading south ahead of labour market data. The calendar today also has German ZEW investor confidence, which is expected to correct further.Trade jitters and geopolitical risks continue to hang over markets and 10-year JGB yields are little changed at 0.30%, while the 10-year Treasury yield up 0.6 bp at 2.832%, as U.S. stock futures move higher. FX Update: A dollar softening theme has been prevailing, with EURUSD printing a three-week high just above 1.2380 and USDJPY pushing to three-day lows below 107.00. AUDUSD has also turned higher after weakening in the wake of the release of the RBA’s minutes to its April policy meeting, which was deemed as showing board members as being relatively less optimistic on the economy than before, helping cement the view that the central bank will likely be on hold through to 2019. There was a mix of other news, including as-expected GDP data out of China, of 6.8% y/y in Q1, an unexpected downward revision in the final release of Japanese February industrial production, to 0.0% m/m from the preliminary estimate of 4.1% m/m, and a report that North and South Korea are apparently set on discussing an official end to the war. Market participants are also gearing up for the meeting between Trump and Abe this week, which is expected to be conciliatory in tone as Trump’s face-to-face meetings with world leaders tends to be, especially with his softening tone on trade with China and NAFTA. Cable has punched out a fresh post-Brexit vote high above 1.4350, today marking the seventh consecutive higher high with markets expecting a perky wages reading in today’s labour market report, which along with tomorrow’s inflation data should seal expectations for the BoE to hike in May. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today UK Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) – German ZEW – expected to fall further, with heightened market volatility likely adding to the error margin for the forecasts. A reading of 2 in April is expected, down from 5.1 in March, while median forecast predicts a dip into negative territory, which would indicate that pessimists outnumber optimists. Anything short of a major surprise to the upside will add to concerns that growth momentum is already starting to slow down, while the ECB is mulling exit steps. Canadian Manufacturing Sales – February manufacturing is seen rebounding 1.0% (m/m, sa) after the 1.0% drop in January. US Industrial Production – a 0.4% gain after surging 0.9% in February. Capacity utilization is projected t 77.9% from 77.7%. Risk to production is to the upside, however, given strong factory employment, and still robust manufacturing ISM and PMI data. FOMC Member Williams, Harker and Bostic Speak, along with Fed’s Quarles Support & Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 18th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th April 2018. European Outlook: The recovery on global stock markets continued during the Asian session, after a good start to the U.S. earnings season. Bonds rallied in Asia, and China’s 10-year yield dropped more than 14 bp after the People’s Bank of china cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks to bolster credit amid a crackdown on shadow lending. 10-year JGB yields are down -0.2 bp at 0.0275, while 10-year Treasury yields are up 1.1 p at 2.840%. Early signs that the Trump-Abe summit won’t lead to new trade demands from the U.S. helped to bolster confidence and the Nikkei is up 1.585, the ASX 200 0.29%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 0.87% and 0.47%. China’s automakers were hit by plans to allow foreign companies to take full ownership of their local ventures. U.S. futures are posting further gains. Oil prices are higher and WTI future is trading at USD 67.12 per barrel.Today’s calendar has the final reading of Eurozone March HICP inflation, which is expected to be confirmed at 1.4% y/y, while U.K. CPI is seen holding steady at 2.7%. FX Update: Narrow ranges have mostly prevailed into the London interbank open, with most of the main dollar pairings holding well within their respective ranges from yesterday. This has been seen amid an ongoing recovery rally in global stock markets as trade and geopolitical concerns continued to abate. EURUSD has held a narrow range in the upper 1.2300s, below the three-week high that was seen yesterday at 1.2414. Cable and AUDUSD have been similarly directionally challenged. USDJPY has been the biggest mover, rising some 30 pips in making a peak of 107.38, breaching yesterday’s peak on route but falling short of Monday’s peak by 1 pip. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today UK Retail sales – a 0.5% m/m decline anticipated in March, which will be payback for the strong 0.8% m/m gain in the month prior. UK Retail sales – a 0.5% m/m decline anticipated in March, which will be payback for the strong 0.8% m/m gain in the month prior. UK CPI – CPI expected to remain unchanged 2.7%, above the BoE’s 2.0% target. Eurozone CPI – widely expected to confirm the headline rate at 1.4% y/y, up from 1.2% y/y in February, but this is largely due to base effects from energy and food prices, as well as the earlier timing of Easter. BoC Statement & Conference – projections remain for no change to the 1.25% rate setting, along with a cautiously constructive growth outlook salted with trade uncertainty. An as-expected outing would maintain the base-case for further gradual rate hikes this year. The BoC will also release the Monetary Policy Report. Fed’s Quarles, & William Dudley Speeches Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 19th April 2018. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th April 2018. FX News Today European Outlook: The global stock market stabilisation continued in Asia and volatility is receding as optimism in the global growth outlook returns following a cautiously optimistic Beige Book from the Fed.Fed’s Beige Book said economic activity remained “modest” to “moderate” across all 12 Districts. That’s pretty much been the characterization for several years, and those were the adverbs that described many sectors. Energy companies are underpinned by rising oil prices as inventory levels fall. 10-year Treasury yields meanwhile are up from earlier lows, but still down -0.4 bp on the day at 2.869%, while 10-year JGB yields rose 0.3 bp to 0.031%. Elsewhere in Asia long yields are also higher as equity markets recover. The Nikkei gained 0.23%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 rallied a further 1.3% and 1.1% amid rumours of state intervention in China. U.S. stock futures are also in the green, with NASDAQ futures outperforming. The WTI future is trading at USD 68.94 per barrel.Today’s data calendar has Eurozone current account and BoP data as well as U.K. retail sales numbers. FX Update: The dollar has been trading near net steady so far today, while yen weakness remained a theme. EURUSD has settled in the upper 1.2300s, holding below the three-week high seen earlier in the week at 1.2414. USDJPY edged out a three-session high at 107.51, EURJPY a two-month high, just above 133.00, while AUDJPY managed a to post a four-session peak. The generally more risk positive backdrop has continued to weigh on the yen as residual safe haven premium unwinds and markets return focus to bullish fundamental arguments for USDJPY (specifically yield differentials, which have markedly gapped in the dollar’s favour this year). Following the Trump-Abe meeting this week, Trump said he wants a bilateral trade deal with Japan, and there was reportedly no discussion of currency levels between the two leaders. On the trade front, China’s commerce ministry repeated today that it is prepared to respond to U.S. trade threats. The Australian dollar came under pressure following a miss in Australian employment data before quickly turning higher. AUDUSD lifted out of its 0.7773 low to post a five-week high at 0.7812. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today UK Retail sales – a 0.5% m/m decline anticipated in March, which will be payback for the strong 0.8% m/m gain in the month prior. US Unemployment Claims – expected to fall slightly at 230K from 233K reported last week. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – April’s Philly Fed index is expected to slip to 21.0 after falling 3.5 points to 22.3 in March. FOMC Brainard, UK’s MPC Cunliffe, Fed’s Quarles, & FOMC Mester Speak Support & Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
