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Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by HFblogNews, May 29, 2017.

  1. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 23rd May 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd May 2018.

    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: Long yields declined as risk aversion picked up and stock market retreated in Asia. The 10-year Treasury yield is down -0.9 bp at 3.050%, the 10-year JGB down 0.4 bp at 0.037%. Stock markets headed south, with Japanese markets underperforming as the yen advanced and the focus returned global risks including the U.S.-North Korea summit and Turkey financial market stability. Nikkei and Topix are down -0.64% and -1.14% respectively. The Hang Seng lost -1.02%, the CSI 300 is down -0.84%. U.S. futures are also heading south and oil prices pulled back from highs over USD 72 per barrel and it is trading at USD 71.92. European stock futures are declining in tandem with U.S. futures after a largely negative session for equities in Asia overnight. The good news for the Eurozone is that peripherals have so far not been hit and the Italian 10-year yield is down -2.4 bp, the Spanish down -1.5 bp in early trade. The calendar has Eurozone PMI readings, as well as U.K. inflation data, a German Schatz auction and the U.K. CBI retailing survey.

    FX Action: The yen outperformed as risk aversion flared up in global markets, while the dollar, outside the case of USDJPY, traded mostly firmer, gaining ground on the euro, sterling and dollar bloc currencies, for instance. EURUSD settled back in the mid 1.1700s after yesterday’s recovery gains stalled above 1.1800. EURJPY dropped sharply, to an eight-day low at 129.70, while USDJPY posted a four-session low of 110.37 in Tokyo, extending the correction from Monday’s four-month high at 111.39. A risk-off sentient, supportive of the yen in accordance with the typical correlative pattern, came amid a cocktail of geopolitical concerns. In the mix was U.S. President Trump saying that that there was a “very substantial chance” of the North Korean summit being delayed. The recent dive in the Turkish lira also mutated into a full nosedive in thin market conditions just ahead of the Tokyo session, posting fresh record lows. Concerns about excessive dictatorial control of Turkey’s economic policies have been negatively impacting the lira. In data, Japan’s March all industry activity index undershoot expectations at 0.0% m/m. The median had been for 0.1% m/m growth. Australian construction data also missed expectations.

    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Main Macro Events Today
    • Eurozone PMIs – Expectations – Central bankers will watch this month’s round of confidence data with special interest and hopes that data will show signs that growth is recovering in the second quarter, after the slowdown in Q1 that was impacted by special factors. An effective stabilization is expected to be seen in Eurozone PMI readings for May and an improvement in the manufacturing reading to 56.4 from 56.2. The services reading meanwhile seen falling back to 54.5 from 54.7
    • RBA Gov Lowe Speech
    • UK CPI, PPI & Retail Index – Expectations – CPI at 2.5% y/y and core at 2.2% y/y, which would match the prior month’s figure, which itself had undershot both the market and BoE expectation. The PPI is expected at 1% in April from -0.1% seen last month, while Retail Price Index expected at 0.5% in April from 0.1% in March.
    • US Prel. PMIs – Expectations – Composite PMI for May expected at 55.0 from 54.9, while Services expected at 54.9 from 54.6.
    • FOMC Meeting Minutes
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  2. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 24th May 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th May 2018.

    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    European Outlook: 10-year Bund yields quickly recovered opening losses and are now up 0.7 bp at 0.510%, as peripheral bond markets rally led by Italy. The 10-year BTP yield is down -7.9 bp at a still high 2.310%. Spanish and Portuguese 10-year yields are also sharply lower. Reports that Five Star is considering an alternative finance minister to Savona, who promotes Italy’s exit from the euro may be helping. Stock futures meanwhile are mostly heading south in Europe, in tandem with U.S. futures and after a largely negative session in Asia. Released at the start of the session German Q1 GDP was confirmed at 0.3% q/q, and GfK consumer confidence fell back. Still to come the U.K. has retail sales data, ECB’s Praet and BoE’s Carney are scheduled to speak and the ECB publishes the latest Financial Stability Report.

    FX Action: Yen out performance has once again been seen, driving USDJPY to a 10-day low of 109.33 and pushing EURJPY further into 10-month low territory. Belligerent rhetoric from North Korea and reports that the Trump administration is mulling a 25% levy on imported cars have provided some added fuel to risk aversion in global markets, which has maintained a safe haven bid for the Japanese currency. The dollar has also remained broadly buoyant, though has steadied off highs seen yesterday versus most currencies. EURUSD posted a fresh five-month low at 1.1675during the New York PM session yesterday before recouping above 1.1700 following the release of the FOMC minutes to the early May meeting showed the Fed is in no hurry to tighten. Fed funds futures gained a little on the minutes, and were still fully pricing in a 25 bp rate hike in June while showing about odds of about 75% for a further quarter-point hike move in September. Italy will remain in the spotlight and the risk remains that we see further paroxysms in Italian markets as investors digest the formulating policies proposals of the anti-establishment and Eurosceptic coalition government.

    German GDP & Consumer Confidence: German Q1 GDP was confirmed at 0.3% q/q as expected, leaving the working day adjusted annual rate at 2.3% y/y. The focus was on the breakdown, which was released for the first time and showed a clearer picture on why growth slowed so dramatically compared to the 0.7% q/q rate in Q4 last year. What the data showed were negative contributions from net exports, stock changes as well as government consumption, with the latter contracting -0.5% q/q in Q1, likely due partly to the political vacuum and the long period without a fully functioning government following the inconclusive election last year. Investment contributed 0.2% points to the quarterly growth rate, private consumption -0.2% points, net exports detracted -0.1% as export growth corrected -1.1% q/q, after rising a very strong 2.6% q/q in Q4 last year. The strong EUR may partly be to blame.

    German GfK consumer confidence fell to 10.7 with the advanced reading for June, down from 10.8 in the previous month and the second consecutive dip. The index peaked at 11 in February, but remains at very high levels. Still, the full breakdown for May showed a marked decline in the willingness to buy despite an improvement in income expectations. The willingness to save meanwhile declined. Q1 GDP data today still showed a positive contribution from consumption to overall growth, but the GfK numbers at least signal some slowdown ahead.

    Charts of the Day
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    Main Macro Events Today
    • UK Retail Sales – Expectations – Likely to show a pick up (from 0.7% from a dire -1.2% in March) but questions remain this be sustainable through to the summer and remainder of Q2.
    • US Initial Claims – Expectations – A 2k decline to 220k is expected for new claims with continuing claims rising to 1.754 million.
    • Plethora of Speeches – Dudley, Carney, Praet, Bostic, & Harker – possibly of some surprises and volatility for USD, EUR and GBP simply from the number of speeches on tap today
    Support & Resistance Levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Senior Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  3. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 25th May 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th May 2018.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: Long yields broadly corrected across Asia, and 10-year JGB yields dropped 0.5 bp to 0.034%, as stock markets struggled with geopolitics back on the agenda after Trump cancelled the North Korea summit. Pyongyang seemed to offer an olive branch and Asian markets are up from earlier lows while U.S. futures are posting gains. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are still down -0.44% and -0.11%. Nikkei and Topix are up 0.22% and down -0.14% respectively, as a weaker yen added some support. Treasury yields gained 1.1 bp and are at 2.988%, still clearly below recent highs. Oil prices fell after Russia’s energy minister suggested that OPEC and its partners will discuss the phasing out of supply curbs at next month’s meeting and the WTI future is trading below USD 71 per barrel.

    FX Update: The dollar has returned to form, nudging higher versus the euro and yen, and most other currencies. EURUSD is pressing on 1.1700 as the London interbank gets up an running, putting Wednesday’s six-month low at 1.1675 back in the crosshairs. The Fed remains on a tightening track while the sentiment towards the Eurozone is being marred by Italy. USDJPY has recovered to the 109.50 area from yesterday’s 17-day low at 108.95. The lift has reflected part broader dollar firmness and par broader yen weakness. Stock markets recovered some poise Asia, and U.S. equity index futures also lifted some following a shaky session on Wall Street yesterday when the Trump administration cancelled the planned summit with North Korea. Pyongyang said today that it would still be willing to meet with the U.S. There are also reports that Mexico has made an offer to the U.S. in a bid to seal the NAFTA renegotiation.

    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Main Macro Events Today
    • German Ifo Business Climate – Expectations – expected to stabilize, but comes with a downside bias now after the weak PMI round. The forecasts had been for an unchanged headline reading of 102.1 versus 102.1 in the previous month, with expectations seen falling back slightly, but the current conditions indicator was expected to improve after the holiday related noise in previous months.
    • UK Second Estimate GDP – Expectations – Unchanged at 0.1% q/q and 1.2% y/y.
    • US Durable Goods – Expectations – A 4% decline is expected for April, down to -1.4% from 2.6% in March
    • Plethora of Speeches – RBA Assist Gov Bullock, BOE Gov Carney, Fed Chair Powell, FOMC Member Bostic, & German Buba President Weidmann – possibly of some surprises and volatility for AUD, USD, EUR and GBP simply from the number of speeches on tap today.
    Support & Resistance Levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  4. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 28th May 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th May 2018.


    [​IMG]

    Main Macro Events This Week

    Geopolitics reared its ugly head again, knocking core sovereign yields lower, while elevating those on the periphery especially in Europe. Mixed messages between Kim and Trump kept markets on their toes about the diplomatic climate between North Korea and the U.S., after the summit was called off, then possibly back on again. Along with worries over Korea and China, concerns about Turkey, Italy and now Spain, have resurfaced. Even against U.S. allies, a 25% tariff on auto imports was floated, leading to concerns that global growth could be compromised down the road.

    United States: The week of May 28 will be a busy, holiday-shortened one in the U.S., with a slew of data releases after the return from the long Memorial Weekend. The focus will be squarely on the April jobs report after recent readings have fallen short of expectations, but in April the gain is expected to be in line with the year-to-date average. Front and center will be Nonfarm payrolls (Friday), expected to rise 195,000 in May, following a weaker-than-expected April gain of 164,000. The unemployment rate is estimated to be steady at 3.9%. Consumer confidence should be 128.0 in May (Tuesday), down only slightly from a strong 128.7 reading in April and the 17-year high of 130.0 in February. MBA mortgage market applications are due (Wednesday), along with the ADP employment survey seen rising 200k in May from 204k in April. Advanced trade indicators deficit may widen to -$70.5 in April(Wednesday) from $68.3 bln, along with a second update on Q1 GDP. Personal income is expected to rise 0.3% in April(Thursday), following a similar gain in the prior month, while PCE may rise 0.4%. Initial jobless claims are set to fall 8k to 226k in the week ended May 26, following the prior pop to 234k from 222k in the week of May 12. Chicago PMI is due, in addition to NAR pending home sales seen rising to 108.2 in April from 107.6 and delayed EIA inventory data (due to holiday).

    Canada: The BOC’s announcement (Wednesday) is front and center this week. No change to the current 1.25% policy setting is expected alongside a maintenance of their gradualist tone, with a likely reiteration that they “will remain cautious with respect to future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data.” As for data that will guide the Bank of Canada, this week has real Q1 GDP(Thursday), March GDP also due Thursday, the current account and the industrial product price index on Wednesday, and the march average weekly earnings on Thursday.

    Europe: The ECB is heading for difficult times as political jitters in Italy, and now Spain, threaten to destabilize markets, just as inflation is expected to finally move higher and vindicate the ECB’s move towards policy normalization. So far, the ECB taken the uptick in Italian yields with apparent calm, but if turbulence increases and deepens pressure on Draghi to try and step in with verbal intervention, volatility will intensify.

    At the same time, this week’s round of preliminary may inflation data is expected to show an uptick in headline rates, that will back the ECB’s move towards a phasing out of QE. May numbers should bring us closer to “normal”. German HICP (Wednesday) is seen rising to 1.8% y/y from 1.4% y/y, the French rate (Wednesday)to 2.0% y/y from 1.8% y/y and the Italian headline rate(Thursday) to 0.9% y/y, which should bring the Eurozone HICP(Thursday) to 1.6% y/y – up from 1.2% y/y in the previous month. The ESI Economic Confidence (Wednesday) is seen falling back just slightly to 112.5 from 112.7 in the previous month, signalling a slowdown in growth momentum, but not to an extent that would worry the ECB unduly and partly due to capacity constraints in countries such as Germany. Final Markit Manufacturing PMI readings for May (Friday) expected to confirm preliminary numbers, leaving the Eurozone reading at a still robust 55.5. And even if preliminary numbers came in weaker than expected, they still showed that job creation continues and hence the German unemployment rate for May (Wednesday) expected unchanged at a very low 5.3%. The overall Eurozone rate for April meanwhile is seen falling to 8.4% from 8.5% in the previous month.

    UK: The calendar this week brings the May Gfk consumer confidence report (Wednesday), where a fractional improvement is anticipated to a -8 reading after -9 in the month prior, April lending data from the BoE (Thursday), and the May manufacturing PMI survey (Friday), which it is anticipated to dip to 53.5 in the headline reading from the 53.9 reading of April.

    Japan: The April unemployment (Tuesday) is expected unchanged at 2.5%, with the job offers/seekers ratio steady at 1.59. April retail sales (Wednesday) should rise to a 0.5% y/y growth rate from 0.1% for large retailers, and edge up to 1.1% y/y from 1.0% overall. April industrial production (Thursday) is penciled in at a 1.0% y/y rate, slightly slower than the prior 1.4%, while the contraction in April housing starts (Thursday) is expected to have deepened to -8.5% y/y from -8.3%. April construction spending is also due Thursday. Friday brings the Q1 MoF Capex survey, and the May manufacturing PMI. The preliminary reading came in at 52.5, the lowest since August. It was 53.1 last May.

    China: The official CFLP manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is forecast edging up to 51.5, after having dipped 0.1 point to 51.4 in April. It was at 51.2 a year ago. The index has generally been on a downtrend from 52.4 in September, and the slippage has rung some alarm bells over growth. Also, the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Friday) should dip to 51.0 from 51.1, and is down from 51.6 in February (the highest since the same reading in August). It was 49.6 last May.

    Australia: The Building permits (Wednesday) are expected to rise 2.0% in April after the 2.6% gain in March. Private capital expenditures (Thursday) are seen expanding 2.0% in Q1 after the 0.2% dip (q/q, sa) in Q4. The next Reserve Bank of Australia event is the policy meeting on June 5, where no change to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate, is expected.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex



    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  5. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 29th May 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th May 2018.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields fell below 2.9% for the first time this month before coming back from overnight lows to currently 2.902%, down -2.9 bp on the day. 10-year JGBs are down -0.4 bp at 0.028%. Italy angst triggered risk aversion in holiday thin markets and as the dip in yields weighed on the dollar, the strengthened yen put further pressure on Japanese stock markets. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.75% and -0.97% respectively. Hang Seng and CSI 300 both lost -0.65%, the ASX outperformed and is posting slight gains. Asian stock markets are also mostly down, although the NASDAQ managed to make some headway as U.S. markets prepare to come back from yesterday’s holiday. Overall risk aversion continues to dominate amid political turmoil in Europe and as the end U.S. exemptions on tariffs on steel and aluminium loom on the horizon. At hopes that the U.S. – North Korea summit will take place after all remains alive as a diplomacy seems to heat up. Oil prices remained under pressure as Saudia Arabia and Russia mull higher output to ease concerns over supply shortages. The WTI future is trading at USD 66.72 per barrel, after falling to a low of USD 65.80.

    In Europe, the Italian 10-year meanwhile is already up a further 13 bp and at 2.788% set to overtake U.S. yields for the first time since 2014 as the ECB remains quiet on the sidelines and the impact of Draghi’s promise to do “all it takes”, starts to be priced out. Portuguese 10-year yields are also up 13 bp already this morning. In Italy 2-year bonds are selling even faster and the yield is up nearly 50 bp at 1.33%. There are a number of ECB speakers today and with the bond market rout widening pressure on the central bank to step in with some form of verbal intervention is mounting. Stock futures are also selling off and financial market turmoil will overshadow today’s data calendar, which includes Eurozone M3 as well as Italian confidence data.

    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Main Macro Events Today


    • EU M3 Money Supply – Expectations – at 3.9% y/y from 3.7% y/y seen in April.
    • US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI – Expectations –S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices expected slightly lower at 6.5% y/y in March from 6.8% y/y in April.
    • US CB Consumer Confidence – Expectations – 128.0 in May, down only slightly from a strong 128.7 reading in April and the 17-year high of 130.0 in February.
    • RBNZ Financial Stability Report
    Support and Resistance levels


    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  6. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 30th May 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th May 2018.

    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields moved up from yesterday’s lows and the 10-year is at 2.804%, up 2.3 bp on the day, but still firmly below 3% as confidence in the Fed rate path evaporates amid widening market turmoil. Yields in Asia remained under pressure as risk aversion dominated and 10-year JGB yields are down -0.5 bp at 0.016% while the sell off in stocks continued. The Nikkei is down -1.54%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 lost -1.63% and -1.29% respectively after the U.S. closed with broad losses.Spanish yields meanwhile are still jumping higher and gained 10.6 bp so far, suggesting special factors rather than a wider stabilisation of sentiment is at play in the case of Italy. The situation looks similar at the short end, where the Italian 2-year yield is down -47.3 bp. Italy’s political turmoil and renewed concern about trade tensions between China and the U.S. continued to weigh on sentiment and a stronger yen added to pressure on Japanese markets. U.S. futures are also heading south and the correction in stocks doesn’t seem to have run its course yet. The calendar still has the Swiss KOF, French consumer spending and Q1 GDP, German jobless numbers, ESI economic confidence data and most importantly preliminary German HICP inflation, with the latter expected to pick up to 1.8% y/y.

    German retail sales jump 2.3% m/m in April. A much stronger rebound from the dip in March than anticipated. With March numbers revised up to -0.4% m/m from -0.6% m/m, the annual rate still fell back to 1.2% from 1.7% y/y in the previous month, although the timings of Easter are likely to still distort the annual comparison. The numbers are volatile and often subject to heavy revisions, but the rebound over the month is still a positive sign after a raft of disappointing data that cast a shadow over the German growth outlook.

    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]
    Main Macro Events Today
    • German Unemployment Change & HICP – Expectations – Unemployment change expected unchanged at 5.3% y/y in May, while German HICP is seen rising to 1.8% y/y from 1.4% y/y.
    • US ADP Non-Farm Employment – Expectations – seen rising 188k in May from 204k in April.
    • US Goods Trade Balance & Prelim. GDP – Expectations –Advanced trade indicators deficit may widen to -$70.5 in April from $68.3 bln, along with a second update on Q1 GDP, which anticipated to remain at 2.3%, unchanged from the initial release.
    • BOC Rate Statement – Expectations – no change to the current 1.25% policy setting alongside a maintenance of their gradualist tone, with a likely reiteration that they “will remain cautious with respect to future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data.”
    Support and Resistance levels


    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  7. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

    Joined:
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    Date : 31st May 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st May 2018.


    [​IMG]

    Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields moved up from yesterday’s lows and the 10-year is at 2.804%, up 2.3 bp on the day, but still firmly below 3% as confidence in the Fed rate path evaporates amid widening market turmoil. Yields in Asia remained under pressure as risk aversion dominated and 10-year JGB yields are down -0.5 bp at 0.016% while the sell off in stocks continued. The Nikkei is down -1.54%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 lost -1.63% and -1.29% respectively after the U.S. closed with broad losses.Spanish yields meanwhile are still jumping higher and gained 10.6 bp so far, suggesting special factors rather than a wider stabilisation of sentiment is at play in the case of Italy. The situation looks similar at the short end, where the Italian 2-year yield is down -47.3 bp. Italy’s political turmoil and renewed concern about trade tensions between China and the U.S. continued to weigh on sentiment and a stronger yen added to pressure on Japanese markets. U.S. futures are also heading south and the correction in stocks doesn’t seem to have run its course yet. The calendar still has the Swiss KOF, French consumer spending and Q1 GDP, German jobless numbers, ESI economic confidence data and most importantly preliminary German HICP inflation, with the latter expected to pick up to 1.8% y/y.

    German retail sales jump 2.3% m/m in April. A much stronger rebound from the dip in March than anticipated. With March numbers revised up to -0.4% m/m from -0.6% m/m, the annual rate still fell back to 1.2% from 1.7% y/y in the previous month, although the timings of Easter are likely to still distort the annual comparison. The numbers are volatile and often subject to heavy revisions, but the rebound over the month is still a positive sign after a raft of disappointing data that cast a shadow over the German growth outlook.

    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Support and Resistance levels


    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  8. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

    Joined:
    May 2017
    Posts:
    1,526
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    Date : 1st June 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st June 2018.

    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 4.5 bp at 0.378% in opening trade, 2-year yields gained 3.6 bp and are at -0.643%. The rise in rates at the long end mirrors moves in Treasury and JGB yields, which lifted, the latter after the BoJ cut purchases of some debt at its regular operations. Peripherals are outperforming and the Italian 10-year is down -10.1 bp at 2.644%, after a last minute agreement with President Mattarella cleared the way for a populist coalition government, with Giuseppe Conte set to be sworn in today. Spain’s Rajoy meanwhile seems on the way out with the Socialists preparing to take control after reportedly gaining sufficient votes to win a vote of no confidence against Rajoy today. Stock futures are moving higher in Europe and the U.S. on the day Trump’s long announced tariffs finally come into effect. The EU’s countermeasures will start with the May 18 list of duties in U.S. goods ranging from Whiskey to Jeans, hardly the top of EU imports from the U.S. and there is lingering hope that despite the harsh tones from all sides, the high stakes will bring them back to the negotiating table. Data releases today focus on manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone, the U.K. and Switzerland.

    Trump administration’s announcement that it was proceeding with slapping tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Canada. The U.S. also hit Mexico and the EU with the same tariff (even though Mexico is a net buyer of U.S. steel and aluminium), and all three rapidly responded with announcements of counter tariffs. This weighed on global stock markets and underpinned safe havens, including the yen. In the mix were a bag of perky U.S. data releases, including weekly initial claims, personal income and the latest Chicago PMI survey, a spike in Eurozone HICP to 1.9% y/y in the preliminary May estimate from 1.2% y/y in April, above-forecast China manufacturing PMI and a miss in Japanese production data for April.

    Canada announced plans to challenge the U.S. tariffs via both NAFTA and the WTO, while Macron of France declared them “a mistake and illegal.” Macron said the decision on the metals tariffs “closes the door on other talks,” though he plans to speak with Trump later tonight. The German economic minister said that the tariffs decision was damaging both for Europe and the U.S., but the transatlantic relationship remains extremely important for Germany.

    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Main Macro Events Today
    • EU Final Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – expected to confirm preliminary numbers, leaving the Eurozone reading at a still robust 55.5.
    • UK Manufacturing PMI – Expectations –anticipate to dip to 53.5 in the headline reading from the 53.9 reading of April.
    • US NFP – Expectations – expected to rise 188,000 in May, following a weaker-than-expected April gain of 164,000.
    • US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – estimated to tick up to 58.1 from 57.3 in April.
    Support and Resistance levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  9. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

    Joined:
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    1,526
    Likes Received:
    0
    Date : 4th June 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th June 2018.

    [​IMG]

    Main Macro Events This Week
    The strength in the U.S. jobs report helped unwind a lot of the recent angst over trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties that many investors feared were jeopardizing the global upswing in growth. The acceleration in the U.S. should override tariff worries, and the momentum should help offset the slowing out of Europe, especially as the uncertainties over the political situations in Italy and Spain have been resolved for now. The markets are likely to be consolidative this week as a number of factors impact.

    United States: This week’s calendar is light with few top tier reports, limited Treasury supply, and no Fedspeak given the blackout period ahead of the June 12, 13 FOMC meeting. Earnings have also slowed to a crawl. As for data, the May ISM non-manufacturing numbers (Tuesday) will be of most interest given the timeliness of the release. An increase by 0.7 point to 57.5 is expected, after falling 2.0 points to 56.8 in April, after hitting a 12-year high of 59.9 in January. The April JOLTS data (Tuesday) will add some details to the outlook but will be anticlimactic following the employment report. And while it continues to corroborate the strength in the labor market, it also suggests the market may not be as tight as perceived. The April trade report (Wednesday) will be tracked given the tariff uncertainties, and it will also help fine tune the improved Q2 GDP outlook.

    Canada: Canadian employment tops a busy week of economic data. The employment report (Friday) is expected to reveal a 20.0k bounce in jobs during May after the 1.1k dip in April, while the unemployment rate holds at a 40-year low 5.8%. The trade report (Wednesday) takes second place in the rankings of most-important-release-this-week, with the deficit expected to narrow to -C$2.8 bln in April from a -C$4.1 bln shortfall in March. Q1 productivity (Tuesday) is projected to slip 0.1% (q/q, sa) following the 0.2% gain in Q4. Building permits (Wednesday) are expected to fall 2.0% (m/m, sa) in April after the 3.1% rise in March values. The May Ivey PMI (Wednesday) is anticipated to slip to a still firm 70.0 in May from the seasonally adjusted 71.5 in April that was the firmest reading since the 73.2 seen in March of 2011. May housing starts (Friday) are expected to expand at a 215.0k unit pace, little changed from the 214.4k growth rate in April. Q1 capacity utilization (Friday) is seen rising to 86.1% from the 86.0% in Q4 that was strongest since Q2 of 2007’s matching 86.0%.

    The Bank of Canada publishes the twice annual Financial Stability Review (Thursday, 10:30 ET) with a press conference to follow at 11:15 ET. In the November Review, the Bank said the high level of household indebtedness and housing market vulnerabilities were the most important vulnerabilities.

    Europe: Political uncertainty in Italy and Spain may be resolved for now. But while the markets celebrated the new governments in Spain and Italy on Friday, the changes could spell trouble for the ECB and the stability of the Eurozone down the line if they bring uncontrolled deficit spending. With that in mind, and spreads having come in again, the chances that the ECB will commit to an end date for QE at the June 14 meeting are rising, especially after the jump in May HICP inflation. German orders data this week will be watched carefully, but even if data disappoints, it would further highlight that the central bank’s window of opportunity for the next step toward policy normalization is closing. Wrapping the end of QE in dovish guidance may be the best way to deal with the current uncertainty.

    This week’s round of data includes key German reports, including the April manufacturing orders (Thursday) which are expected to show a 0.7% m/m rebound. German industrial production for April(Friday) and the trade balance (Friday). Final Eurozone Q1 GDP is widely expected to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q, but comes with a slight downward bias, after the revision to the final French reading. The earlier timing of Easter and adverse weather conditions left their mark on growth in the first quarter and the data are too backward looking to really change the outlook.The calendar also has final Eurozone May services PMI, Eurozone retail sales and PPI inflation, and a German I/L bond auction Thursday, followed by a 5-year Bobl auction Wednesday. France sells bonds Thursday.

    UK: Brexit negotiations will continue this week while the data schedule is fairly quiet, highlighted by the release of the construction and services PMI surveys for May (due Monday andTuesday,respectively). The construction PMI expected to come in with a headline reading of 52.0, down from 52.5 in April, which would indicate a modest slowing in the pace of expansion. Market participants will be keeping a watch out on the evolving Brexit negotiation, which is in a crucial phase and which remains fluid.

    Japan: In Japan, April personal income and PCE (Tuesday) should show consumption rising to a 1.0% y/y pace from the previous -0.7%. The second look at Q1 GDP (Friday) is penciled in at -0.4% q/q, modestly improving from the preliminary -0.6% pace. The April current account surplus (Friday)is set to narrow to JPY 2,000.0 bln from 3,122.3 bln.

    China’s trade balance (Friday) will get a lot of attention given the trade tensions with the U.S., though we shouldn’t be able to discern any impacts. The balance was at a $28.8 bln surplus in April with gains of 12.7% y/y for exports and 21.5% y/y for imports.

    Australia: The RBA’s policy meeting (Tuesday) is expected to result in no change to the current 1.50% rate setting. In the April meeting, Governor Lowe repeated that the low level of interest rates is supporting the economy. Something similar is expected in the June statement, consistent with a low for long outlook for policy. The data slate is highlighted by Q1 GDP (Wednesday),expected to accelerate to a 0.7% growth rate (q/q, sa) from the 0.4% pace in Q1. Retail sales (Monday) are projected to expand 0.4% (m/m, sa) in April after the flat reading in March. The current account (Tuesday) is projected to narrow to a -A$9.0 bln deficit in Q1 from -A$14.0 bln in Q4. The trade balance (Thursday) is seen narrowing to a A$1.1 bln surplus in April from A$1.5 bln in March.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  10. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

    Joined:
    May 2017
    Posts:
    1,526
    Likes Received:
    0
    Date : 5th June 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th June 2018.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today

    Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.5 bp at 2.937%, 10-year JGBs unchanged at 0.040%. After putting trade concerns aside and focusing on U.S. growth during the Monday session, stock markets struggled in Asia. The RBA left rates on hold as expected and maintained cautious optimism on the global and local growth outlook while suggesting that wage growth may have bottomed out, which saw the ASX underperforming and down -0.35%. Nikkei and Topix are up 0.20% and down -0.05% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 0.22% and the CSI outperformed with a 0.81% gain. A mixed picture, with markets appearing to take a wait and see stance. U.S. stock futures are slightly in the red, oil prices are slightly higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 65.02 per barrel.

    FX Action: EURUSD has steadied above the N.Y. low of 1.1677, though continues to find sellers ahead of the 1.1700 mark. The pairing has steadied well above last week’s 11-month low of 1.1508, largely as the worst of the European political meltdown appears to be behind us for now. This said, there may still be some political fissures yet to bubble up, so EURUSD is expected to remain in sell-the-rally mode.

    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Main Macro Events Today

    • EU Markit Services PMI – Expectations – expected to be confirmed at 53.9, leaving the composite at 54.1, down from the previous month, but still pointing to a solid pace of expansionand at least for the manufacturing sector market reported ongoing job creation amid capacity constraints and an overall optimistic view on the outlook over the next 12 months.
    • UK Services PMI- Expectations – a dip is anticipated to 53.0 in the headline reading after 52.8 in April.
    • US May ISM non-manufacturing PMI – Expectations – will be of most interest given the timeliness of the release. A 0.7 point increase has been forecasted to 57.5, after falling 2.0 points to 56.8 in April, after hitting a 12-year high of 59.9 in January. The slight improvement will leave the service sector tracking the expected performance for the May factory surveys which are showing improvement. These readings remain robust, supported by fiscal stimulus as well as stronger global growth.
    • Canadian Q1 productivity – Expectations – projected to slip 0.1% (q/q, sa) following the 0.2% gain in Q4.
    • Speeches: UK MPC Member Cunliffe, German Buba President Weidmann, RBA Assist Gov Bullock
    Support and Resistance levels

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     

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