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Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by HFblogNews, May 29, 2017.

  1. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 21st December 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st December 2018.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today
    • The sell-off in stock markets continued during the Asian session after another slide in US shares.
    • Signs of fresh tensions in US-Sino relations, the risk of a partial government shutdown in the US and general angst about the health of the world economy, added further pressure in stock markets.
    • Topix and Nikkei lost -1.91% and -1.11% respectively as a stronger Yen added to pressure.
    • WTI is trading at just $46.21 per barrel.
    • EURUSD has settled in the mid 1.1400s.
    • Sterling has become directionally dormant following recent Brexit-related volatility, with the UK Parliament now in recess until the new year and London interbank markets thinning out into the Christmas break.
    • German consumer confidence unexpectedly held steady at 10.4 in the advance January reading, despite all the negative headlines and the turmoil on markets.
    • French GDP was unexpectedly revised down while outlook deteriorates
    Charts of the Day

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    Main Macro Events Today
    • UK GDP – The 3rd and final release of Q3 GDP is expected the latter unrevised at 0.6% q/q.
    • Canadian Retail Sales and GDP – Retail sales are projected to grow 0.5% in October after the 0.2% rise in September. The ex-autos sales aggregate is projected to gain 0.1% after nudging 0.1% higher. GDP is anticipated to rebound 0.1% in October after the 0.1% drop in September.
    • US Personal Spending – November personal income is expected to rise 0.3% after a solid 0.5% pace in October. Consumption is expected to rise 0.3% , half of the 0.6% October gain.
    • US Durable Goods and Final GDP – November durable goods orders should rebound 1.7% in November, after a 4.3% October drop. The third reading on Q3 GDP growth is expected unchanged at a 3.5% rate, though slower than Q2’s 4.1% clip.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  2. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 24th December 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th December 2018.


    [​IMG]

    The Economic week ahead

    Divergence between the rosier outlook on economic fundamentals of central banks and the darker omens signalled by the tightening up of the financial markets and deterioration in the commodity sector has grown.

    Holiday-thinned staffing in Europe, Asia and the US in the first half of the week will severely curtail trade, though what this means for volatility is anyone’s guess.

    United States:Christmas week will be light on the data front and will include consumer confidence, new home sales and the advance indicator numbers. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Monday) will be followed by the MBA Mortgage Market Report (Wednesday), along with the Case Shiller Home Price Index and Richmond Fed Index. Initial jobless claims (Thursday) are estimated declining 4k to 210k in the week ended December 22, after rising 8k to 214k in the week of December 15. Consumer confidence (Thursday) is expected to slip to 135.0 in December, from 135.7 in November and new home sales (Thursday)should rise 2.9% to 560k in November. EIA energy inventories are also due to be released. Advance indicators for December (Friday) should reveal an improvement in the trade balance for goods. NAR Pending Home Sales (Friday) may rebound to 103.0 in November from 102.1, while Chicago PMI (Friday) is set to sink to 61.0 in December from 66.4.

    Canada: For Canada, activity picks up in the first week of 2019, with the December employment report due on January 4. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada until the January 9 policy announcement.

    Europe: There aren’t many full trading days left for 2018, with German, Swiss, Scandi and many other European markets already closed on Monday for Christmas Eve and early closures in Paris and London, followed by a nearly full shutdown for Christmas on Tuesday as well as Wednesday. The shortened calendar week focuses on preliminary inflation data out of Germany and Spain on Friday. With import price inflation falling back sharply in November on the back of a sharp deceleration in energy price inflation we see the headline HICP rate for Germany falling back to just 1.9% y/y from 2.2% y/y in the previous month.

    Meanwhile, the ECB’s economic bulletin on Thursday is likely to be a close repeat of Draghi’s introductory statement at the last press conference and still send a cautiously optimistic message on the outlook.

    UK: London will be open for a half day on Monday before closing through to Thursday for the Christmas and Boxing Day holidays. Sterling markets will be as good as dormant until the new year, when the frustratingly unresolved Brexit solution will be back in sharp focus. The parliamentary vote on the Brexit deal and outline for a future relationship will take place in the week of January 14, before the legislated deadline of January 21.

    Japan: Japan is closed Monday for Emperor’s Birthday. The economic calendar kicks off on Tuesday, with November services PMI (Tuesday), which is seen at a 1.2% y/y rate from 1.3%. The remainder of the docket comes on Friday and features December Tokyo CPI, which is expected to slow further to a 0.4% y/y pace, after sliding to 0.8% y/y in November from October’s 1.4% y/y. November unemployment is forecast at a steady 2.4%, with the job offers to seekers ratio unchanged at 1.62.

    Australia: The calendar is empty in the final week of 2018, lacking economic releases or RBA speakers. The markets are closed Monday, Tuesday andWednesday for Christmas. The next RBA meeting is on February 5, where no change to the 1.50% setting for the cash rate, is expected.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  3. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 27th December 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th December 2018.

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    FX News Today
    • The Dollar and Yen have weakened moderately against most other currencies, though the Australian Dollar has been an exception, with the antipodean currency underperforming following a weak industrial profit figure out of China.
    • opix and Nikkei closed with gains of 4.89% and 3.88% respectively, following gains of nearly 5% in the US stock markets.
    • The stock market bounce, amid thin volumes, was due to US 2018 holiday sales rising by 5.1 percent from a year ago to over $850 billion, the strongest gain in six years.
    • The stock market rally did not push through to China, as the Hang Seng lost early gains and is down -0.46% while Shanghai and Shenzhen Comp are down -0.17% and -0.15%. The CSI 300 is hanging on to a slight 0.13% gain.
    • DAX and FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, but US futures are in slightly negative territory, indicating that markets remain fragile and oil prices erased some of yesterday’s jump, leaving the front end WTI future at USD 45.98 per barrel.
    • Uncertainty also eased as words of confidence from President Trump’s economic adviser on Fed Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin helped to underpin risk appetite.
    Charts of the Day

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    Main Macro Events Today
    • ECB Economic Bulletin – The ECB Bulletin includes the statistical data that the ECB Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision and provides a detailed forecast and overview of the Euro Area economic conditions.
    • US Jobless Claims – Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to have declined in the past week, while Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have increased, thus providing a mixed picture of the US economic outlook.
    • Conference Board Consumer Confidence – The Consumer Confidence Index is expected to be lower than the previous month, albeit still significantly higher than 100, thus suggesting that growth will persist.
    • US New Home Sales – New Home Sales are expected to have increased by 0.562 million in November, compared to 0.544 million in October, suggesting that the housing market is still growing.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  4. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 28th December 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th December 2018.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today
    • 10-year Treasury yields are up 0.7 bp at 2.773%, 10-year JGB rates down -2.0 bp at -0.012%.
    • Japanese stock markets underperformed with Topix and Nikkei losing 0.50% and 0.31% respectively, while most other equity markets managed to move higher after Wall Street closed with further gains. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.14% and 0.53% respectively, with the ASX managing to rise 1.02%.
    • Weak data, which included a drop in headline inflation, weaker than expected retail sales and an unexpected slump in November production numbers underpinned JGBs and put pressure on local stock markets.
    • USD declined on worse than expected Consumer Confidence and mixed Jobless Claims data, as well as due to rumours regarding an executive order banning US companies from using Huawei products.
    • The Yen and the Swissy gained thanks to their safe haven status.
    • US markets managed to recoup losses and close broadly higher.
    • Oil prices are up from yesterday’s close and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 45.77 per barrel.
    Charts of the Day

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    Main Macro Events Today
    • KOF Leading Indicator – The Composite Index of the Swiss economy is expected to show some signs of improvement and should stand at 99.5 in December, compared to 99.1 in November, still below the 100 mark indicating growth.
    • Chicago PMI – While still remaining above 50, the December Chicago PMI is expected to come out worse than the November one, at 62, compared to 66.4 a month ago.
    • Pending Home Sales – In conjunction with the mixed picture presented by the US economy, Pending Home Sales growth in November is expected to come out at -0.7%, compared to -2.6% in October.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  5. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 31st December 2018.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st December 2018.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today
    • The Aussie Dollar strengthened on expectations of progress in trade talks between China and the US. President Trump said that he had a “long and very good call” with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping and a possible trade deal between the United States and China was progressing well.
    • Still, market sentiment remains fragile over looming concerns of slowing global growth and a partial US government shutdown.
    • Bourses remained closed in Japan and mainland China, while markets in Australia closed early.
    • The Hang Seng rallied 1.34%, compared to a -0.14% loss in the ASX and US futures are moving higher as traders put their hope in US-Sino trade talks.
    • The broad MSCI ex-Japan index managed a 0.6% gain, and US futures are also moving higher, suggesting a somewhat more mellow mood in markets on the last trading day of the year.
    • The broad MSCI ex-Japan till lost 16% this year, while the Nikkei shed 12% in 2018 and the CSI 300 lost around a quarter of its value, highlighting that investors are taking a very gloomy view on the outlook for the world economy.
    • Oil prices are moving higher and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 45.90 per barrel.
    Charts of the Day


    [​IMG]

    Main Macro Events Today
    • A holiday across the majority of markets (including Japan, Germany, Italy, China, and Brazil), while the UK, New Zealand, Australia, France and Hong Kong markets will close early.
    • Dallas Fed Manufacturing – This monthly survey aims to obtain a timely assessment of the state of Texas factory activity. The indicator is expected to stand at 17.6, the same as last month, still indicating growth given that it is higher than 0.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  6. TinaNamdev

    TinaNamdev New Member

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    All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance.
     
  7. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 2nd January 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd January 2019.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today
    • Markets didn’t have a good start to 2019 as disappointing data out of China rekindled concerns about the health of the Chinese economy.
    • China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI fell into contraction territory at 49.7, which together with the fact that both private and official PMIs suggest a correction in orders inflow saw investors heading for cover.
    • Japan remained closed but Hang Seng and CSI 300 declined -2.68% and -1.38% respectively, while the ASX lost -1.57%.
    • Chinese 10-year yields dropped -12.1 bp and stock futures in the US and Europe are also heading south, indicating wide spread losses for stock markets on the first trading day of the year.
    • The broad market movement suggests a drop of the Dollar, as a cautious mood prevailed on the first trading day of the year on concerns over global growth, the US government shutdown and a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes.
    • In addition, the worse than expected Dallas Fed index, which plunged to a 30-month low in the last day of the month also had its bearing on the Dollar.
    • Oil prices also fell back and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 44.82 per barrel.
    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Main Macro Events Today
    • EU Markit Manufacturing PMI – The European manufacturing index is expected to have remained flat at 51.4 in December. Among the countries, the Italian and Spanish indices are expected to have decreased slightly, while it is expected to have remained similar for the rest of the large countries.
    • UK Markit Manufacturing PMI – In the UK, manufacturing is expected to have deteriorated in December and stand at 52.5, compared to 53.1 in November.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  8. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 3rd January 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd January 2019.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today
    • Japan remained on holiday, but elsewhere in Asia bond markets got support from ongoing wobbles in equity markets, where a revenue warning from Apple hit holiday-thinned trade.
    • The ASX managed a 1.36% gain, but the Hang Seng lost -0.81% and the CSI 300 is down 0.31%, with comments from the central bank, which once again promised measures to support small companies, helping to contain losses.
    • US stock futures are sharply lower, led by a -2.7% decline in the NASDAQ mini future.
    • Oil prices are also down on the day and the front end WTI is trading at USD 45.54 per barrel.
    • European stock markets closed mixed on Wednesday after a rebound on Wall Street saw indices clawing back some of their earlier losses. However, a rare revenue warning from Apple revived concerns about the outlook for the world economy and hit holiday-thinned Asian markets, while sending US and European stock futures south.
    • Investors are increasingly pricing out any further move towards policy normalisation from central banks and with tomorrow’s release of Eurozone HICP expected to bring a sharp deceleration in the headline rate, Bunds are likely to remain supported.
    • Brexit jitters meanwhile continue to hang over UK markets with no sign that May has the majority needed to get her deal through the Jan 14 vote in parliament.
    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Main Macro Events Today
    • UK Construction PMI – The UK Construction PMI is expected to come out at 52.9, compared to 53.4 last month, although the Manufacturing PMI came out higher than expected yesterday.
    • US Jobless Claims and ADP Employment Change – Initial Jobless Claims are expected to have increased to 220K in the last week of December, compared to 216K in the previous week. ADP Employment Change for November is still expected to be positive, albeit growing at a slightly slower pace than October.
    • ISM Prices and Manufacturing PMI – ISM Prices serves as a proxy for inflation and is expected to have remained above 50 but slowed to 58.0 compared to 60.7 last month. Similarly, the manufacturing PMI is expected to come out at 57.9 compared to 59.3 last month.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  9. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 4th January 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th January 2019.


    [​IMG]

    FX News Today
    • 10-year Treasury yields are up 2.2bp at 2.58%, while 10-year JGBs fell back -3.7 bp to -0.049% as local stocks slumped in catch up trade at markets opening.
    • Topix and Nikkei lost -1.53% and -2.26% respectively, while elsewhere in Asia markets stabilised or bounced back. China ledi the way after an unexpected improvement in the Services PMI, confirming additional measures to boost the economy and as concern over US-Sino trade relations eased since vice ministers from both countries prepare to start talks Monday.
    • The CSI 300 is up 2.02% and the Shanghai Comp up 1.64%, as China announced measures to support the economy that include a cut in reserve requirements (RRR) for banks, as well as cuts in taxes and fees. Targeted RRR cuts, which are designed to support small and private companies will also be included, and Beijing will step up “countercyclical adjustments” of macro policies.
    • News that the US House passed a spending bill package in an effort to end the partial government shutdown also helped to underpin sentiment and US futures are moving higher after another dismal day on Wall Street yesterday.
    • Oil prices also benefited from improved sentiment and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 47.70 per barrel.
    • Brexit developments and the latest troubles in Italy’s banking system will remain on the radar in Europe today.
    Charts of the Day

    [​IMG]

    Main Macro Events Today
    • EU Composite and Services PMI – EU PMIs are expected to remain the same as last month.
    • UK Services PMI – The UK Services PMI is expected to register an improvement, at 50.7 compared to 50.4 in November, also in line with the better than expected Construction PMI release yesterday.
    • EU CPI and PPI Inflation – Euro Area overall inflation is expected to stand at 1.8% y/y, compared to 1.9% y/y last month. Core inflation is expected to have remained at 1%, while the PPI is expected to have grown by 4.1%, compared to 4.9% in November.
    • US Labour Market Data – NFPs are expected to have grown to 177k, compared to 155k last month, with Average Hourly Earnings expected to have grown by 3% y/y, compared to 3.1% last month.
    • Canada Employment Data – The Canadian unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.7%, compared to 5.6% last month, while employment change is expected to have stood at 5k compared to 94k last month.
    • US Markit PMI – Services and Composite PMIs are expected to have remained the same and increased from last month respectively.
    • Fed Chairman Powell Speech – Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman, is set to participate in a panel discussion at the American Economic Association’s Annual Meeting.
    Support and Resistance
    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Dr Nektarios Michail
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  10. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 7th January 2019.

    MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th January 2019.


    [​IMG]

    The Economic week ahead

    Increased year-end volatility took a breather to kick off the first trading week of 2019. But after a streak of market pessimism with the major indices flirting with bear market losses, it would appear that upside surprise risks have prevailed for now.

    This welcome turn of events was anchored by the “remarkably strong” jobs report that contradicted the financial markets’ worst fears about the deterioration of the economy that had virtually priced out further Fed rate hikes and even flagged risk of a rate cut by year end.

    United States: US data on inflation and the ISM-NMI will be the focus in the week of January 7. However, due to the government shutdown, several of this week’s other releases may be delayed, including trade, factory orders, wholesale trade, construction spending, new home sales, and the advance indicators.

    The Highlight is inflation, as that will be one of the prime movers of Fed policy going forward. Also key will be the ISM-NMI for the most up-to-date reading on the service sector. The NFIB small business optimism index is on tap (Tuesday),along with November JOLTS job openings (Tuesday), as well as consumer credit, seen rising $16 bln in November, compared to $25.4 bln in October. MBA mortgage market data arrives (Wednesday). Initial jobless claims (Thursday)are estimated to rise 5k to 236k in the week ended January 5 (Thursday), after climbing 10k to 231k in the week of December 29. The data are likely to be distorted by the government shutdown, along with the typical difficulty in holiday seasonal adjustments. The Treasury budget (Friday) may post a surplus of $5.0 bln in December, relative to a -$204.9 bln deficit in November.

    Meanwhile, the rest of the economic calendar will be subject to the government shutdown. November factory orders (originally set for Monday) should post a 0.2% decline, with a flat reading for inventories. The November trade deficit (originally Tuesday) is expected to narrow to -$51.6 bln from -$55.5 bln. Wholesale inventories (originally Thursday)are seen falling 0.2% in November.

    Fedspeak: Fed’s Powell will make another appearance this week before the Economic Club of Washington (Thursday),though there will be no text, only a moderated Q&A, no doubt reiterating the “patience and flexibility” formula that helped propel stocks higher Friday. The week rounds out (Thursday) with Richmond’s Barkin, Chicago’s Evans, St. Louis Fed’s Bullard and VC Clarida. The FOMC minutes (Wednesday) will be of interest, as the Fed hiked rates.

    Canada: The BoC’s policy announcement (Wednesday) is the highlight this week. No change to the current 1.75% setting is expected for the policy interest rate amid a slowing economy, moderating inflation pressures and the hefty downside risk posed by weak oil prices to real sector growth.

    Economic data has the November trade report (Tuesday) expected to reveal a -C$2.0 bln deficit in November from the -C$1.2 bln shortfall in October. Housing Starts (Wednesday) are seen falling to a 205.0k unit pace in December from 216.0k in November. Building Permit Values (Thursday) are projected to slip 0.5% in November after the 0.2% dip in October. The New Housing Price Index (Thursday) is anticipated to decline 0.1% in November (m/m, sa) after the flat readings in August, September and October. The December Ivey PMI is due Monday.

    Europe: The ECB’s account of the last policy meeting (Thursday) is likely to reflect growing unease and there will have been broad support for the decision to phase out net asset purchases. The minutes aside, there is also ECBspeak from Villeroy (Thursday) and Mersch (Friday), who are likely to back the central bank’s official line.

    The data calendar is busy and should support expectations for slowing economic momentum as global trade tensions and Brexit risks cloud over the outlook. The German November manufacturing orders (Monday) are seen falling -0.2% m/m, while industrial production (Tuesday) is seen rising a modest 0.3% m/m with a solid stock of orders still underpinning activity for now. Export growth is likely to have eased in November, but lower import prices should have helped to underpin the nominal trade balance which we expect to report a sa surplus of EUR 18.0 bln.

    So far the labour market continues to improve as companies have a solid stock of orders to fill and an unchanged November unemployment rate is expected (Wednesday) of 8.1%. Improving labour markets and Black Friday sales, meanwhile are expected to have underpinned German and Eurozone retail sales (both Monday), which are seen up 0.4% m/m and 0.2% m/m respectively.

    UK: The UK’s data calendar is relatively quiet, highlighted by November production data and monthly GDP data (Friday). The industrial output should recoup 0.2% m/m after dropping 0.6% m/m in October, while the y/y figure should come in at -0.7%. The BRC retail sales report for December will also be released (Thursday),which should affirm a robust holiday sales tally.

    Japan: December Consumer Confidence (Tuesday) is seen dipping further to 42.5 from 42.9. The November Current Account surplus (Friday) should narrow to JPY 700 bln from 1,309 bln. December bank loan figures are also due Friday.

    The China inflation data headline may show some further easing due to the drop in oil prices. December CPI (Thursday)is penciled in at a 2.0% y/y pace from 2.2% in November and 2.5% in September and October. December PPI (Thursday)is forecast at a 1.7% y/y rate from 2.7%. December loan growth and new Yuan loans are tentatively due Thursday, with the latter seen up CNY 800.0 bln from the prior CNY 1,250.0 bln increase.

    Australia: The trade report (Tuesday) is seen revealing a widening in the surplus to A$2.5 bln in November from A$2.3 bln in October. Building approvals (Wednesday) are expected to fall 2.0% in November after the 1.5% decline in October. Retail sales (Friday) are projected to rise 0.2% in November after the 0.3% gain in October.

    New Zealand: The next RBNZ meeting is February 13, 2019, in which no change to the current 1.75% setting for the OCR anticipated.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

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