Date : 8th January 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th January 2019. FX News Today USDJPY has posted a six-day high at 109.00. Yen crosses have also remained buoyant amid a backstop of re-established risk appetite in global markets, in turn feeding an outperforming bid in Japanese equity markets, while the Dollar has concurrently firmed up a tad against most currencies after descending yesterday. 10-year Treasury yields are down -1.1 bp at 2.685% while 10-year JGB yields rose 1.8 bp to -0.08%. Asian bond as well as stock markets traded mixed, as the focus remains on US-China trade talks. A weaker Yen helped Japanese markets to outperform and Topix and Nikkei are up 0.39% and 0.82% respectively. The Hang Seng meanwhile is unchanged, CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.23% and -0.30% respectively, while the ASX closed with a gain of 0.69% and US and European stock futures are also moving higher. The front end WTI future is trading at USD 48.54 per barrel. Markets look a little less committed presently, wanting specifics from the ongoing US-China trade talks and a break in the partial government shutdown, the consequences of which are becoming more evident as time ticks on. The Trump administration expressed optimism of a “reasonable” deal and news that China dispatched one of Xi’s top aids to the low level negotiations in Beijing underpinned hopes of progress. The US Secretary of Commerce said yesterday that a deal can be reached that “we can live with.” Meanwhile US President Trump’s TV address today will be watched closely with investors hoping for clues on the possible end to the government shutdown. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today EU Business Climate Indicator – Business Climate is expected to have decreased to 0.99 in December, compared to 1.09 in November. US Trade Balance – Although less important than in other countries, the US trade balance still provides important information about the supply of Dollars in the world as well as the state of the US economy. In November, the trade deficit is expected to have stood at $54 billion, compared to $55.5 billion in October. Canadian Trade Balance – The Canadian trade deficit is expected to have increased to $1.95 billion, compared to $1.17 billion in October. Support and Resistance Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 9th January 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th January 2019. FX News Today USDJPY retested 109.00 but has so far left yesterday’s one-week peak at 109.08 untroubled. Yen crosses have remained buoyant amid a backdrop of firm global equity markets. EURJPY and AUDJPY, meanwhile, have posted fresh one-week and 11-day highs, respectively. Topix and Nikkei are both up 1.1%, the Hang Seng rallied 2.4%, the CSI 300 1.68% and the ASX 0.98%. Hopes for a breakthrough in the US-China trade standoff continue to run high. Both sides agreed to extend talks into an unscheduled third day amid reports of progress on the issues of Chinese imports of US goods and increased access to Chinese markets, and Bloomberg cited sources reporting that President Trump, who tweeted that “talks are going very well,” is now eager to strike a deal. The MSCI Asia-Pacific (ex-Japan) Index has gained over 1.5%, reaching a 26-day high. The S&P 500 closed on Wall Street yesterday with a 0.97% gain, and S&P 500 futures are showing a 0.4% advance in overnight trading. After the soothing words from Powell last week markets will get the Fed minutes to digest today, but for now the mood in stocks is perky, with short coverings on the riskier assets underpinning the move higher and Hang Seng and mainland China bourses, which underperformed yesterday, outperformed today. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today Swiss CPI – Swiss inflation is expected to come out slightly lower than last month on a y/y basis, standing at 0.8% in December, compared to 0.9% in November. EU Unemployment Rate – The Euro Area unemployment rate is expected to have been 8.1% in November, the same as in October. BoC Interest Rate Decision – No change is expected in the BoC meeting despite the US rate hike in December, given the not-so-great data releases in December and early January. FOMC Minutes – Fed minutes are expected to shed more light on the policymakers’ mindset, especially regarding their thoughts on the US macroeconomic outlook. Support and Resistance Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 10th January 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th January 2019. FX News Today Dovish leaning Fed speakers and minutes yesterday continue to underpin Treasuries. Bonds got support from reduced risk appetite. FOMC minutes: could afford to be patient, with inflation low;downside risks may have increased, the timing of future rate hikes as less clear. Trade talks between the US and China may have ended on an optimistic note, but traders fear that it could drag on for a long while. Nikkei lost -1.29% – Yen strengthened. Talks in the US to end the partial government shutdown collapsed. USDJPY reversed to 107.80 low from 109.0; EURUSD surged to 1.1559 high Solid session for Canadian stocks, tracking the bullishness around the world. GoC yields moved modestly higher as BoC delivered the as-expected steady rate announcement while reiterating rates will need to go higher “over time.” USDCAD slipped to nearly the 1.3200 level. WTI crude rallied 5% to $52.5 bbl despite mild EIA crude draw, product builds. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today ECB Minutes – Expectations – The ECB’s account is likely to reflect growing unease and while there will have been broad support for the decision to phase out net asset purchases, it is expected that even the hawks were not pushing for further exit steps just yet. US Initial jobless claims – Expectations – Initial jobless claims are estimated to rise 5k to 236k in the week ended January 5, after climbing 10k to 231k in the week of December 29. Canadian Housing data – Expectations – Building permit values are projected to slip 0.5% in November, while the new housing price index is anticipated to decline 0.1% in November after the flat readings the past 3 months. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speech at 17:00 GMT. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 11th January 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th January 2019. FX News Today Fed officials continue to pledge patience after Fed Chair Powell noted the balance sheet will be “substantially smaller”. ECB minutes confirmed decision to end QE was unanimous. On the growth risks, there seems to have been a debate on the impact of weaker confidence indicators, with some mixed views. The Central banks are increasingly wary of downside risks and their cautious messages support both stock and bond markets. US equities stumbled after trade talks ended with few details for all the prior rejoicing, while a handful of year-end stumbles in the retail sector were noteworthy. European stock futures are moving higher, after a largely positive session in Asia overnight. US futures are also clawing back overnight losses with cautious comments from Fed and ECB officials supporting both bond and stock markets. WTI crude is holding gains and trading at USD 52.56 per barrel. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production – Expectations –Industrial output is expected to have recouped 0.2% m/m after dropping 0.6% m/m in October, while the y/y figure should come in at -0.7%. Manufacturing production should rise to 0.3% m/m, after the fall to 0.9% last month due mainly to weakness from transport equipment. US CPI and Core – Expectations – It is widely anticipated that we will see an energy-depressed -0.1% reading for headline CPI in December, but a warmer 0.2% gain for core prices. Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 15th January 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th January 2019. FX News Today Risk appetite picked up during the Asian session amid further confirmation from Chinese officials that they will implement measures to boost the flagging economy. Equities recovered as China pledges to support growth. Brexit: The most important day so far, with Parliament set to reject the government’s deal. GBPUSD whipsawed by Brexit vote news; first backed, then undermined. Yen has outperformed as global stocks tumble on big China trade data miss. EURUSD ebbed to 5-day low at 1.1437, before rebounding to 1.1485. Oil prices stabilised and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 51.23 per barrel. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today US PPI and Core – Expectations – December headline PPI is forecast dipping 0.1%, while the core rises 0.1%. ECB President Draghi Speech – Draghi will probably strike a cautious tone and acknowledge that the balance of risks is starting to shift to the downside. Parliament Brexit Vote- Expectations –There seems be neither an agreement on PM May’s deal, nor on any of the feasible alternatives. And reportedly, EU officials who are not keen on a hard Brexit scenario are open to a 3-month extension to the Brexit schedule. See our Brexit Vote summary. Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 16th January 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th January 2019. FX News Today Brexit: A crushing defeat of May’s Brexit deal yesterday, brings new uncertainty about the political future in Europe. The odds for delay and/or new referendum are higher. GBP bounced: Cable has advanced to the 1.2889 level, up from just under 1.2700 ahead of the vote. China injected $51.6 bln via reverse repo operations – The biggest daily net cash injection from China’s central bank on record. Japanese markets underperformed and Nikkei was down -0.55%. Yen weaker amid risk-back-on sentiment Oil prices are also up and the front end WTI future is trading at $52.26 per barrel. German Dec HICP inflation confirmed at 1.7% y/y, leaving 2018 HICP at 1.9% Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today BoE’s Governor Carney speech – Draghi will probably strike a cautious tone and acknowledge that the balance of risks is starting to shift to the downside. UK Retail Price Index and Inflation – Expectations –The headline CPI is expected to come in unchanged at 1.8% y/y and December Retail Price Index, which we expect to rise by 0.5% after falling in November. UK PPI and Core – Expectations –December headline PPI is forecast dipping 2.1% y/y, while the core is expected unchanged at 0.2%. PM May’s Leadership Challenge – Conservative Party lawmakers will hold voting to express confidence in the PM May Government. Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 17th January 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th January 2019. FX News Today UK PM May survived no-confidence vote by 325 to 306. GBP stalled below $1.29. EU officials have signalled some willingness for further talks and to an extension of the Brexit deadline. Stock markets have moved down from session highs, as caution still prevails amid the multitude of risks:Earnings season ( even if its good so far) , concerns over US-Sino tensions, slowing world growth, while Brexitdevelopments remain the key focus in Europe. Fed’s Beige Book: expansion still moderate, but all districts reported tight labor. USDJPY scaled to 1-wk high at 109.19; EURUSD has been narrowly orbiting 1.14. WTI future pulled back from a session high of $52.36 and is trading at USD 51.95 per barrel, with record high crude production in the US keeping a lid on prices. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today Eurozone’s Final CPI and Core – Expectations – Overall Eurozone HICP should be stable at 1.6% y/y, unchanged from the preliminary report and down from 1.9% y/y in November. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The Philly Fed index is seen rebounding to 10.0 in January, after December’s 3.5 point slide to a 2-year low of 9.4. US Unemployment Claims – Expectations – Initial jobless claims are estimated inching up 1k to 217k in the week ended January Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 18th January 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th January 2019. FX News Today Treasury yields jumped and global stock markets rallied on fresh hopes of progress in US-Sino trade talks. WSJ reported that the US is weighing lifting tariffs to hasten a trade deal and calm markets. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.93% and 1.29% respectively. GER30 and UK100futures also moved higher in tandem with US futures. US Equities also surged on Morgan Stanley earnings miss. USDJPY popped to better than 2-week highs of 109.40. USDCAD fell sharply to 1.3246 from over 1.3300. Swiss Franc down vs most currencies, following dovish remarks by SNB’s Jordan – “too early for a change” as he mentioned. Global trade developments and, in Europe, Brexit developments, remain in focus. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today UK Retail Sales – Expectations – December retail sales are expected to decline by 0.7% (median -0.5%) after rising 1.4% in November. US Industrial Production & Prelim UoM – Expectations – Industrial Production is seen rising another 0.3% in December after a solid 0.6% gain in November. Preliminary January Michigan sentiment should decline to 96.0 after the surprise increase to 98.3 in December. Canadian CPI and core – Expectations – A 0.3% m/m drop in CPI during December is anticipated, after the 0.4% plunge in November, with weaker gasoline prices again projected to fuel the decline. The core CPI measures all ran at 1.9% y/y in November, while inflation should either hold at those rates or tick lower. Fedspeak: NY Fed’s Williams (permanent voter) gives his views on policy and the economy. Philly Fed’s Harker (nonvoter) speaks at a symposium on prosperity. Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 21st January 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st January 2019. FX News Today Asian stock markets managed to post modest gains, despite the confirmation of the slowdown in Chinese GDP growth to 6.4% y/y, which left the full year rate at 6.6%. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.56% and 0.26% respectively, and the Hang Seng gained 0.27%, while the CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are both up 0.5%. Hope that trade tensions will eventually be resolved in talks continues to underpin sentiment, with some room for further gains after markets priced in quite extreme risks at the end of last year. Reports from Friday indicate that China is planning to ramp up purchases of US goods although a Bloomberg report suggests that both sides are making little progress on the key issue of intellectual property protection. All of these dampened the move higher in Asia and saw US futures heading south. The front end Nymex future is trading at USD 53.99 per barrel after reaching a session high of USD 54.17. There is a US Bank Holiday today, with emphasis turned to Sterling. Charts of the Day Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Dr Nektarios Michail Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 22nd January 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd January 2019. FX News Today A gloomy IMF outlook: Forecasts for major economies revived recession fears globally and saw risk aversion picking up again. The IMF warned that the Sino-US trade war, a “no-deal” Brexit and a weakening European economycould lead to a sharp global slowdown. Topix and Nikkei lost -0.63% and -0.47% respectively. President Trump calling on China to stop “playing around” and do a “real” trade deal -Added to the negative backdrop for markets. The Earnings season is also in full swing and reports from UBS this morning disappointed and only added to lingering risk aversion. USDJPY edged out 2-session low under 109.40; Yen firmer amid risk-off vibe. EURUSD ebbed to 18-day lows below 1.1350, driven by firming in the Dollar. WTI Oil prices back under $54.0 after hitting 7-week high yesterday at $54.39. Charts of the Day Main Macro Events Today UK Average Earnings Index 3m/y – Expectations – Average weekly earnings are expected to remain perky in the three months to November, expected at +3.3% y/y in both the with- and ex-bonus figures. UK Unemployment Rate – Expectations – Unemployment is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. German ZEW Economic Sentiment– Expectations – Seen falling back to -18.3 from -17.5. Canadian Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales – Expectations – Manufacturing shipment values are expected to drop 1.0% m/m in November after the 0.1% dip in October. Wholesale shipment values are seen falling 0.5% m/m in November after jumping 1.0% in October. Support and Resistance Levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
