Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by Andrea ForexMart, Aug 23, 2017.

  1. Obasi FXMart

    Obasi FXMart Active Member

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 26, 2018

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    The euro major pair began with a lead over the dollar for this week due to various negative reasons such as high tensions with the US government tension concerning the White House and the Federal Reserve. Trading has been calmed during the Asian session amid the holiday season with the majority of the market are closed. Yet, bull traders are heedful given various factors such as geopolitical concerns and a sluggish economy that prompts investors to be careful with the thin market trading and European markets closed and internal crisis with the US.

    There is no expected macroeconomic data to influence trading even for just a short period of time that has also put a limit to liquidity in the market. The EUR/USD pair is presumed to resume its bullish trading in favor of the greenback across the trading hours. Meanwhile, investors are focus on the US CB Consumer Confidence data and new home sales data scheduled to be released on Thursday, followed by the German CPI data on Friday that may give short-term opportunities.

    The pair continues to move higher for the week on a broad-based weaker dollar but may face a strong resistance that may be difficult to surpass because of lack of momentum in the market. Technical trading continues to move with not much changes since the beginning of the week.
     
  2. Obasi FXMart

    Obasi FXMart Active Member

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: December 27, 2018

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    After the holidays, the pair has moderate gains while the pair undergoes pressure on Wednesday, removing weekly gains. However, despite no macroeconomic data releases and thin trading sessions, the dollar strengthened amid the rising US Treasury bond yields. It was able to move steadily above the level of 96.50, which supports the greenback and declined lower than 1.14 and further moved as low as 1.34. The risk appetite has restricted the losses after the Wall Street rally and optimistic Asian equity market by the year-end trading session. To some level, this sustains the volatility and recoup from losses and return to the level of 1.38.

    Fundamental data are expected from the ECB and two economic data namely the dovish CB Consumer Confidence and new home sales data that is anticipated to give a rising forecast for the month of November. Nonetheless, no matter how the data came out, the pair is likely to move range-bound amid the thin market for holidays which may limit any major upward movement. Next week’s forecast will probably be the same during the holidays for this week.

    On a technical aspect, the price continues to have a bearish pressure in the present and future trading. Short-Term support was found close to the 200-SMA and base of the weekly range with some sort of bearishness to 20-SMA. However, below the midlines lacking any strength gives a neutral stance with uncertain direction.
     
  3. Obasi FXMart

    Obasi FXMart Active Member

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 10, 2019

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    The euro major pair was successful to have a bullish breakout in a wider price range for the past three months. It was driven mainly by a dovish Fed meeting after an update in China-US trade deal which was being followed by almost everyone. During the American session, the long-term resistance was broken at 1.14985 giving a good momentum after a bullish breakout as the price ranges at 1.15 followed by consolidation at Asian hours. Meanwhile, the Fed minutes pushed the price for a breakout which then underwent a bearish bias before the release of the Fed minutes given the dovish rhetorics from various FOMC members.

    Some of the committee members are supports the rate hike amid the continuous slowdown since December throughout the world market, as well as, the US economy. Moreover, this shows that the majority of the members monitors the market carefully, considering the sluggish pace of rate increase along with the investor’s expectations to pause the rate hike plans this year. On a long-term perspective, this engages major fund flow in the market as a safe-haven currency with a risk of a recession for short-term due to Fed plans of multiple rate hikes. This greatly impacted the USD bulls and foster risk appetite in the market.

    Meanwhile, investors attention are now on the ECB’s most recent minutes of the meeting as they look forward to the economic slowdown in the European market or hints on the possibility of an early rate hike by the central bank in 2019. This could further strengthen the euro bulls to break higher than the 1.16 mark.

    As for the fundamental reports, the initial jobless claims, new home sales data and a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are anticipated today from the US market that would likely bring short-term profit opportunities for retail traders.
     
  4. Obasi FXMart

    Obasi FXMart Active Member

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 15, 2019

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    The euro was able to close yesterday with optimism despite risk-off trading that is predominant in the market after a disappointing release from Chinese import and export data. Today, we can expect the pair trading range-bound with a bit of a positive bias but not a major increase as traders are still careful with the upcoming Brexit approval vote in the UK House of Commons. The output is anticipated to have a strong impact on short-term price movement between the British pound and the euro in the broad market. Although, the general forecast in the market is expecting a rejection in the vote today unless it goes against public anticipated outcome. If so, the euro will struggle with any big changes in the price movement.

    After the parliament vote on Brexit but not optimistic to Theresa May limit volatility in the market to a certain degree. The market already positioned and expected the rejection of Brexit will win over May’s, which the headlines will give fundamental support to euro. The US greenback is leasing against broad-based risky sell-off yesterday. However, the US dollar in calm given the partial shutdown of the US government added to the dovish bias of the Fed's policy rate hike that adds pressure to the greenback on the broad market.

    On the headlines, three data are expected including French CPI & HICP data, French GDP data & Euro area trade balance data. An increase in French GDP is anticipated to rise in monthly readings while others remain the same. From the US, data on Trade balance and PPI are anticipated to be released with a dovish bias compared to the previous numbers. Traders are anticipated to look for short-term opportunities given the expected speech of ECB Draghi in today’s US session and FOMC member Robert Kaplan, which will likely bring high volatility in the market.
     
  5. Obasi FXMart

    Obasi FXMart Active Member

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 21, 2019

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    The euro major pair struggles amid the geopolitical and economic problems that resulted in calm price action. It broke the significant support level of 1.1364 on Friday. It drops as low as 1.1353 given the dovish pressure from the European market in euro for the week, despite the steady risk appetite. With euro affected by the political concerns, these events continue to bring in a bearish influence on Monday session that is anticipated to limit the upward potential in the European market. A number of European news, including Brexit deal negotiation, “Anti-EU Axis” of Italy, French yellow vest protest, have continuously affected the economic activity. At the same time, this hurts the investors’ risk appetite in the background of China-US trade war also puts a ceiling to the bullish possibilities of the pair.

    The trade war between China and the US remains to be the main factor, influencing the long-term high-risk assets in the global market, as well as other news that gives rise to the higher risk in worsening the trade war while bearing in mind the issue on Intellectual property infringement to influence the long-term trend and suggests a higher possibility of a downward movement of short-term trades. On another hand, China’s GDP implies growth despite trade war that has slowed down the Chinese economy in less than 30 years, which in turn keeps steady the risk appetite in Asian markets. This boosted the rebound of the pair last week following a post minor consolidation at the beginning of the Asian market. However, there is not enough headlines to support the bulls, hence, limited its uptrend at 1.137 prior to the European hours.

    On the economic calendar releases, it seems to be subdued for both currencies but expecting for the German PPI data that is presumed to drop compared to the previous reading of the European economic climate and largely impact the near-term trading of the common currency. Amid the careful sentiment of the global market with the prevalent risk appetite and lack of fundamental data for the euro, we can assume for the resumption of a bearish price movement of the pair in the future.
     
  6. Obasi FXMart

    Obasi FXMart Active Member

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 23, 2019

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    The euro closed on a neutral stance yesterday after a sudden two-way price action due to recent headlines. While there is a high demand for safe-haven assets reaching a 16-day low in the early trading session, the US equities dropped on conflict with the China-US trade war that resulted for the US dollar to decline in the broad market, supporting the recovery of euro from intraday lows. On the other hand, the US dollar sustained its bullish momentum with rising concerns with a trade war, which sets risk off trading and yields range-bound trading during Asian hours and closed today’s post on a neutral state. Moreover, the US dollar is influenced to have a dovish sentiment in the broad market on rate hike plans for the year and partial government shutdown.

    News implying worsening of the Sino-US will continue to negatively affect global growth, making investors cautious on the negotiation, despite the clear talks during the meeting earlier this month that weren’t exactly published yet and additionally, the US Treasury department commented saying that issues were unsettled.

    Given that there are no major releases scheduled both from the US and Europe, the EUR/USD pair is assumed to trade range-bound, higher than the critical support level. News momentum and risk-off trading activity dominated trading on Tuesday. Macro data from the Atlantic area didn’t have any major impact on the price movement. Meanwhile, investors are focused on the ECB and the outcome of the post-MPC conference tomorrow. If ECB members comments aligned with the statement from ECB president Mario Draghi will result in a sharp decline. While investors wait for the MPC update, they are likely to hold back from placing any major bets that also supports the tendency of range-bound trading for today’s trading session.
     
  7. Obasi FXMart

    Obasi FXMart Active Member

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 23, 2019

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    The euro closed on a neutral stance yesterday after a sudden two-way price action due to recent headlines. While there is a high demand for safe-haven assets reaching a 16-day low in the early trading session, the US equities dropped on conflict with the China-US trade war that resulted for the US dollar to decline in the broad market, supporting the recovery of euro from intraday lows. On the other hand, the US dollar sustained its bullish momentum with rising concerns with a trade war, which sets risk off trading and yields range-bound trading during Asian hours and closed today’s post on a neutral state. Moreover, the US dollar is influenced to have a dovish sentiment in the broad market on rate hike plans for the year and partial government shutdown.

    News implying worsening of the Sino-US will continue to negatively affect global growth, making investors cautious on the negotiation, despite the clear talks during the meeting earlier this month that weren’t exactly published yet and additionally, the US Treasury department commented saying that issues were unsettled.

    Given that there are no major releases scheduled both from the US and Europe, the EUR/USD pair is assumed to trade range-bound, higher than the critical support level. News momentum and risk-off trading activity dominated trading on Tuesday. Macro data from the Atlantic area didn’t have any major impact on the price movement. Meanwhile, investors are focused on the ECB and the outcome of the post-MPC conference tomorrow. If ECB members comments aligned with the statement from ECB president Mario Draghi will result in a sharp decline. While investors wait for the MPC update, they are likely to hold back from placing any major bets that also supports the tendency of range-bound trading for today’s trading session.
     
  8. Obasi FXMart

    Obasi FXMart Active Member

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: January 31, 2019

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    The euro major is trading within the range close to last night high during the Asian market hours. The profit gain gave a bullish trend previously after the statement from MPC, who decided to keep the interest rates as anticipated. Yet, the increase plans for the year has changed and delayed the increase which prompted investors to wait and monitor traders as a strategy. However, this opens the possibility for the Fed to contract rather than increase the interest rates relative to the economic situation. Consequently, the dollar turned into a dovish sentiment in the broad market. The dollar has had another bullish tone after the Fed update of Fed Chair Jerome Powell during his post-FOMC conference speech saying that the balance sheet reduction that will move along the changes in future economic conditions, according to a news report from WSJ at the beginning of the week.

    Yet, trades will likely end earlier amid the pressure due to Powell giving impact on trade wars and chances of the government shutdown in US economy and give a dovish tone. Moreover, the difference in spread between Germany and 10-T bonds dropped in Asian hours amid the dovish sentiment and increasing dollar in the broad market. This supports the euro bulls to gain a stronger stance higher than the 1.15 level. Currently, traders wait for the outcome of the US-China trade war and look for favorable signals for the common currency in the broad market.
     
  9. Obasi FXMart

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 1, 2019

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    The euro major pair is consolidating close to the previous low during trading session amid high-risk appetite in the broad market which limited the decline to 1.14, which has been steady support across the week. News on trade deal being extended despite optimism on progress and major concerns taking straight on, in turn, these supported the dollar bulls. Another news is the possibility for two leaders of US and China are likely to meet this month with positive expectation on the trade deal, however, tariff imposition is also to be discussed if a deal wasn’t successful by March 1st.

    Consequently, this shook the market as the trade talk between the EU and the US is scheduled next month to gain agreement from EU should the talk failed. The possibility of the US imposing tariffs on EU is giving a dovish tone for the common currency in the broad market. However, the EUR/USD is likely to decline in the coming month amid the dovish outlook for short and medium-term and lack of fundamental support to maintain the recent high of the euro.

    The euro pair is presumed to resume its consolidation ahead of the Eurozone preliminary CPI data and German manufacturing PMI data. However, a negative result on the macro-European data would drive further decline of the pair. A positive outcome would shift the lead to the dollar bulls and opens the chance for a rally and set for consolidation in the intermediate support in the first week of February.
     
  10. Obasi FXMart

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    EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis: February 4, 2019

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    The euro major pair movement was driven by fundamental data, bringing a mixed price reaction. After a very active month, February began with optimism on trading the EUR/USD pair. Yet, it was not able to surpass the high levels with not so good bounce on price action. Moreover, the positive data that restricted the price movement due to the mixed reaction as mentioned. However, bulls doesn’t have enough strength to sustain the present positive flow of the trend amid the dovish sentiment this month, restricting gains slightly lower than 1.15. Moreover, both the data of US NFP data and ISM manufacturing data supported the US dollar lead the market, removing the gains acquired earlier.

    As the trading session opened this week, the US dollar had taken the upper hand in the broad market and consolidated close to the intraday lows. Nevertheless, the pair is anticipated to trade within the range since both currencies lack enough momentum to succeed with a breakout. Thinking about the factors such as the headlines and events positioned the bears and bulls at same stance. In the meantime, the price movement in Asian markets are closed for today that impacted the volatility and price movement in the market. There is no scheduled major economic news from the eurozone while in the US, there is the release of data on Factory orders but will probably not have a big impact on the trading movement.
     

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