Date : 12th July 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th July 2019. FX News Today Treasuries recovered during the Asian session after better than expected data and a weak auction put pressure on bonds yesterday. Bonds across Asia were under pressure though and JGB yields moved up 2.6 bp to -0.121%, while Australia’s 10-year yield jumped 12.0 bp to 1.450%.The RBA already cut rates to record lows and comments from the central bank governor yesterday didn’t sound as though the bank was readying further easing at the moment, which. Stock markets were cautious ahead of trade and lending data out of China today, which are expected to set the tone for GDP numbers out on Monday. With Powell’s testimony out of the way the focus is shifting back to the impact of trade tensions and after Singapore reported the weakest GDP growthnumber in a decade investors are holding back before taking fresh positions especially after a tweet by US President Trump saying China was not living up to promisesmade on buying agricultural products from the US. Indices swung between gains and losses overnight and Topix and Nikkei are currently down -0.19% and up 0.15% respectively. European stock futures are moving higher in tandem with US futures. The WTI future is trading at $60.67 per barrel, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner EURUSD spiked to 1.1274 in Asia session after knocking lower following the warmer US CPI outcome. Looking ahead, the Dollar is likely to remain in sell-the-rally mode ahead of the July FOMC meeting, where a 25 basis point rate cut is widely expected. EURUSD support is now at the 50-day Moving Average at 1.1240, with resistance at 1.1287-95, the July 5 and July 4 highs. USDCAD drifted lower to 1.3023 area as WTI future is rading at USD 60.58 per barrel, amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Next Support stands at 1.2970-1.2990. Main Macro Events Today Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to hold at 0.1% in June, and at 0.2% in the core index. These readings would keep in a y/y gain of 1.4% for headline PPI. We see y/y headline readings in a 1.3%-1.9% range over coming months, while core prices should be in a 2.1%-2.5% range. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 15th July 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th June 2019. Trade warring and slowing global growth have set the scene for a possible earnings recession, which could catalyze a risk-off phase in global markets. Therefore next week’s inflation data out of some of the major economies, Australia’s employment report and China’s 2Q19 GDP report could be the highlights in the coming week. Another focus is the upcoming Q2 corporate earnings season, which will get into gear next week with “show and tells” from the banking sector. Monday – 15 July 2019 China Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00)- Chinese GDP is projected to see additional moderation to a 6.2% y/y pace in Q2, from the 6.4% y/y growth rate in Q1. The economy has grown at a 6.2% pace so far in 2019, while it was at a 6.6% pace for all of 2018, leaving the slowest growth rate since the 3.9% clip in 1990. It grew 6.8% in 2017. Consumer Price Index (NZD, GMT 22:45) – New Zealand inflation is expected to rise by 1.7% y/y in Q2, edging higher than the 1.5% observed in Q1. Tuesday – 16 July 2019 Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The RBA has already cut rates to record lows and comments from the central bank governor yesterday didn’t sound as though the bank was readying further easing at the moment. Minutes are expected to shed further light regarding future easing stance. Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Average Earnings excluding bonus for May expected to slightly increase at 3.2% from 3.1% last month. ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for July is expected to be released at -19.0 compared to -21.1 last month. Retail Sales and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – 0.2% June retail sales gains are expected for both with and without autos, following 0.5% May gains for both measures. Unit vehicle sales ticked down to a 17.3 mln pace in June from an upwardly-revised 17.4 mln clip in May, and gasoline prices should provide a drag on retail activity given an estimated -3.5% figure for the CPI for gasoline. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 3.9% rate in Q2, following the 0.9% Q1 clip. Wednesday – 17 July 2019 Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – May CPI came in on the nose at 2.0% y/y, ebbing from 2.1% y/y in April and marking a return to the upper bound of the BoE’s target. Next week’s reading for June is expected to remain unchanged. The same stands for core CPI. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for June is expected to hold steady at 0.3% m/m, with the headline inflation at 1.2% y/y unchanged from the previous month. Still, as the weakness in manufacturing is now starting to reach the labour market, this means the prospect that underlying inflation pressures will build up soon look slim. This will keep the ECB on course for additional easing measures, unless there are major breakthroughs on the US-Sino trade and the Brexit front. Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – CPI is expected to decline at a 2.1% y/y pace in June. Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should slow to a 1.260 mln pace in June, after a dip to 1.269 mln in May. Permits are expected to improve to 1.300 mln in June, after rising to 1.299 mln in May. Overall, we see a stronger trajectory for starts with a positive but slower pace for permits, as starts play catch-up with the higher permits trajectory. Thursday – 18 July 2019 Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – Australian labour market data is expected to deteriorate, as the employment is anticipated at 10K from 42.3K in May. Friday – 19 July 2019 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The main US consumer confidence index is expected to ease to 93.0 in March, compared to 93.8 in February. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 16th July 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th July 2019. FX News Today Treasury yields steadied during the Asian session, with bonds erasing overnight gains and the 10-year yield now up 0.3 bp at 2.092%. JGB yields also backed up from lows and are down -0.1 bp at -0.129%, after returning from holiday, while yields declined in Australia and New Zealand after the minutes of the last RBA meeting showed the bank remains ready to adjust policy if needed. Stock markets meanwhile struggled in very light volumes as markets hold back ahead of key US data and earnings reports this week. On trade talks US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said he and Trade-Representative Lighthizer may travel to Beijing if talks by phone this week are productive. The WTI future is trading below $60 per barrel and U.S. futures are posting marginal gains. In Europe, the GER30 future is currently slightly higher as are US futures, which UK100 futures are in the red, amid ongoing Brexit jitters as Boris Johnson, poised to succeed as PM next week, puts no-deal options firmly back on the table. Last week’s round of Brexit negotiators was reportedly one of the most difficult encounters of the last 3 years. Meanwhile JP Morgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Taiwan Semiconductor are among the companies reporting results this weeks. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner EURUSD has been held between its 20-day Moving Average of 1.1295 and its 50-day Moving Average at 1.1242 since Friday. A 25 basis point Fed rate cut at the end of the month has been priced into EURUSD, and focus now may shift to the ECB, where further stimulus could be in the cards at its next meeting on July 25, keeping EURUSD capped for the time being. USDJPY broke earlier today its 20-day Moving Average at 107.95, after printing 8-session high from 107.80 during the overnight Asian session. The mixed risk backdrop has limited the pairing’s gains since last week, as Wall Street trades on either side of flat, and Treasury yields remain pressured. The July 5 low of 107.76 remains a floor for the asset, while next Resistance stands at 108.20 and 108.50 Main Macro Events Today Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 08:30) – Average Earnings excluding bonus for May expected to slightly increase at 3.2% from 3.1% last month. ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Economic Sentiment for July is expected to be released at -19.0 compared to -21.1 last month. Retail Sales and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – 0.2% June retail sales gains are expected for both with and without autos, following 0.5% May gains for both measures. Unit vehicle sales ticked down to a 17.3 mln pace in June from an upwardly-revised 17.4 mln clip in May, and gasoline prices should provide a drag on retail activity given an estimated -3.5% figure for the CPI for gasoline. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 3.9% rate in Q2, following the 0.9% Q1 clip. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 17th July 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th July 2019. FX News Today Stronger than expected US retail sales data put some pressure on bond markets. However, Equities turned lower as trade uncertainty returns. After the Chicago Fed President Evans flagged two rate cuts this year and US President Trump threatened to put another USD 325 bln of tariffs on Chinese goods, Stock markets were nervous and risk aversion lingered. US stock futures are posting fractional gains and Topix and Nikkei are currently down -0.05% and -0.27% respectively. Released overnight, a -17.3% decline in Singapore non-oil exports highlighted the damaging impact of global trade tensions. WTI crude dives near 3%, after Pompeo indicated that Iran is willing to negotiate on missiles. Oil prices are now trading at USD 57.69 per barrel, on yesterday’s indications that US-Iran tensions could be easing. Germany’s Von der Leyen confirmed as new EU Commission President. Von der Leyen will succeed Juncker and IMF head Lagarde today is tendering her resignation as her nomination for Draghi’s post looks more certain Bunds rallied from the off today and European stock futures are in the red after a mixed session in Asia, despite the prospect of additional easing measures. Bank of America and Netflix are due to report results today. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner USOIL: WTI crude has fallen 3% on the session following comments from US Secretary of State Pompeo in a cabinet meeting, who said for the first time, Iran is prepared to negotiate on its missile program. This news may signal a shift of policy in Iran, perhaps set to lower geopolitical tensions in the Mideast. The WTI contract has fallen from earlier highs just over $60.00 to $57.06 lows. Support now holds at $57.30 and $56.30. Resistance is set at $58.07 and $58.75. Main Macro Events Today Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 08:30) – May CPI came in on the nose at 2.0% y/y, ebbing from 2.1% y/y in April and marking a return to the upper bound of the BoE’s target. Next week’s reading for June is expected to remain unchanged. The same stands for core CPI. Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) – The Euro Area CPI for June is expected to hold steady at 0.3% m/m, with the headline inflation at 1.2% y/y unchanged from the previous month. Still, as the weakness in manufacturing is now starting to reach the labour market, this means the prospect that underlying inflation pressures will build up soon look slim. This will keep the ECB on course for additional easing measures, unless there are major breakthroughs on the US-Sino trade and the Brexit front. Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – CPI is expected to decline at a 2.1% y/y pace in June. Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should slow to a 1.260 mln pace in June, after a dip to 1.269 mln in May. Permits are expected to improve to 1.300 mln in June, after rising to 1.299 mln in May. Overall, we see a stronger trajectory for starts with a positive but slower pace for permits, as starts play catch-up with the higher permits trajectory. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 18th July 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th July 2019. FX News Today Bonds were supported by ongoing trade concerns, with the tensions between Japan and South Korea adding to the lingering concerns about US-Sino relations. A WSJ report suggested that trade negotiations between the US and China are at a “standstill.” This was followed by fresh evidence of the impact that trade tensions have been having, with Japanese trade data revealing a worse-than-expected 6.7% y/y contraction in exports, which have shrank for seven months straight now. South Korea’s central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates and said it has room to act again. The Fed’s Beige Book still said economic activity “continued to expand at a modest pace”, but globally central banks are clearly preparing for a marked slowdown as trade tensions bite. Concerns about a weak earnings season are putting pressure on stock markets. The USA100 futures dipped -0.6% so far after Netflix Inc posted a surprise loss of US customers. The GER30 future is underperforming as well amid a broad based decline in European and US stock futures after a weak session in Asia overnight. The WTI future meanwhile is trading at $56.70 per barrel. Fears of a no deal Brexit scenario also continue to cloud over the outlook while the ECB is expected to at least introduce an official easing bias next week, before cutting rates in September. ECB’s Villeroy highlighted this morning that central banks can’t perform miracles and need help from politicians and fiscal policies. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner EURUSD recovered slightly from 7-session lows of 1.1200, peaking at 1.1243. Brexit concerns have weighed on economic activity on the continent as well as the UK, and could limit Euro gains going forward. Risk for the EUR comes from the ECB as well, with a shift to an explicit easing bias expected by many at next week’s meeting, or at subsequent meetings. EURUSD support comes at 1.1218-1.1229, with Resistance at the 61.8% Fib. level from 2-week peak, at 1.1250-1.1252. Main Macro Events Today Retail Sales (USD, GMT 08:30) – A -0.3%m/m contraction is expected for June retail sales, following 0.5% May loss. In the y/y comparison, sales are anticipated at 2.6% from 2.3%. Initial jobless claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – The initial jobless claims for the week of July 13 are estimated to fall to 204k, after falling to 209k in the week of July 6. Claims should average 215k in July, down from 222k in June and a 217k in May. Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Empire State index is estimated to rebound to 6.0 in July from -8.6 in June, which marked a 33-month low for the series. The producer sentiment readings all moderated through the turn of the year from elevated levels in response to global growth concerns, falling petroleum prices, fears about the ongoing trade war, and the partial government shutdown. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 22nd July 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd June 2019. No deal Brexit risks will continue to unsettle markets next week as the two candidates hardened their rhetoric in end stages of the party elections. The ECB however will stand out as the event of the week,with Brexit uncertainty an important part of the overall outlook. Have a look at the most important events of the coming days in our usual weekly publication. Tuesday – 23 July 2019 The announcement of the next Prime Minister of the UK – Event of the week – Original Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson remains the front runner in the race and is widely expected to be confirmed as the new Prime Minister next Tuesday. Housing Data (USD, GMT 14:00) – A steady rate is anticipated for existing home sales in June at the firm 5.340 mln pace seen in May. The median sales price is estimated to ease to $275,000, for a y/y gain of 0.4%, down from 4.8% in May. In Q1, we saw an average sales pace of 5.207 mln. In Q2, a better 5.297 mln pace is expected. Wednesday – 24 July 2019 Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – Preliminary Composite PMIs for Eurozone and Germany are expected to fall in July, to 51.8 and 52.5 respectively, while the Manufacturing PMIs are forecasted at 48.0 and 45.4 respectively. Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to decline in July, to 50.4 from 50.6 and 51.0 from 51.5 respectively. Thursday – 25 July 2019 German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to slip to 96.7, after it held steady the past 2 months around the 97 barrier. Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45) –The ECB is meeting on July 25, – shortly after the confirmation of the new PM in London and ahead of the Fed, which is widely expected to cut rates again at the end of the month. On balance, markets see more merit in keeping official rates unchanged next week, while moving to an official easing bias and promising that rates will be at “current or lower” levels well into next year. ECB Monetary Policy Statement (EUR, GMT 12:30) -The July meeting will clearly be a “live” one with doves and hawks battling it out over when to deliver the now widely expected easing measures. It is expected that the majority will see more merit in keeping policy settings unchanged, but change the guidance to introduce a clear easing bias. Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 1.0% in June, after a -1.3% figure in May. Transportation orders should rise 2.7%. Boeing orders rose to only 9 from just zero in May, with weakness due to the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments. Vehicle assemblies should ease to 11.1 mln from an 11.3 mln pace in May. Durable shipments are expected to rise 0.5%, and inventories should rise 0.6%. The I/S ratio is expected to hold steady at 1.67 since April. Friday – 26 July 2019 Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – Gross Domestic Product is expected to grow 1.8% in Q2, with a sturdy 2.4% growth rate for final sales thanks to solid growth rates of 3.9% for personal consumption and 4.3% for government purchases, alongside a big $27 bln unwind of the Q1 inventory pop. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 23rd July 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd July 2019. FX News Today Global stock markets have been buoyant. Treasuries held modest gains to start the week, unwinding Friday’s selloff on the NY Fed’s walk back, albeit in a low volume trade. Japanese bourses outperformed in thin trade, while markets in Hong Kong and mainland China struggled to make headway and China’s new Star market of tech companies fell back after the rally on the first day of trading yesterday. Stock futures in the US and Europe are moving higher, led by a 0.6% rise in the GER30 future as markets hopes for at least a dovish signal from the ECB on Thursday, with some lingering hope that the central bank will already move this week. A meeting between tech executives and White House officials yesterday sparked hopes of progress on Huawei, which would help to clear hurdles for fresh face to face trade talks between China and the US. RBNZ has reportedly been taking a fresh look into unconventional measures and hopes of easing from not just the Fed, but also the ECB helped to underpin sentiment as did an announcement from US President Trump of a bipartisan deal to suspend the borrowing limit and boost government spending levels for two years. Oil prices remain underpinned by ongoing tensions in the Middle East, leaving the WTI future trading at USD 56.31 per barrel. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner EURUSD – It descended to a 1-month low at 1.1189, driven by bearish bias for a third consecutive day. Recent tops have been limited to the 1.1280 region, and ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday, the pairing remains in sell-the-rally mode. The Bank is expected to shift to an explicit easing bias this week, with a rate cut likely coming at the September meeting. While a Fed rate cut of 25 basis points is expected at the end of July, it has been priced into the Dollar for now. Further dovish noises from the ECB should see the Euro give way on Thursday, with the first major downside target at the June low, of 1.1159. NZDUSD – The biggest mover out of the main pairings has been NZDUSD, which fell over 0.3% in hitting a six-day low at 0.6729. This came with the RBNZ reportedly taking a fresh look into unconventional monetary policy stimulus measures. Next Support holds at 200-day SMA at 0.6718, while Resistance is set at Wednesday’s high, at 0.6745. Main Macro Events Today The announcement of the next Prime Minister of the UK – Event of the week – Original Brexit campaigner Boris Johnson remains the front runner in the race and is widely expected to be confirmed as the new Prime Minister today. Housing Data (USD, GMT 14:00) – A steady rate is anticipated for existing home sales in June at the firm 5.340 mln pace seen in May. The median sales price is estimated to ease to $275,000, for a y/y gain of 0.4%, down from 4.8% in May. In Q1, we saw an average sales pace of 5.207 mln. In Q2, a better 5.297 mln pace is expected. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 24th July 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th July 2019. FX News Today In Europe, Core EGB yields declined in the PM session with Gilts outperforming Bunds after the crowning of Boris Johnson as the new leader of the UK Conservative Party. Johnson is now set to be confirmed as Prime Minister tomorrow and investors are raising their no-deal Brexit bets, which is also fuelling easing expectations. A weaker than expected UK CBI industrial confidence survey as well as dovish leaning comments from BoE’s Saunders underpinned the rebound in Gilts and saw the UK 10-year rate falling back -1.6 bp to 0.688%. The ECB’s latest credit conditions survey also played into the hands of the doves at the council as it showed that credit conditions tightened in the second quarter. Stock markets meanwhile rallied on the combination of positive earnings reports and hopes of further central bank support. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner USDJPY recovered to 1-week highs of 108.28 overnight, gaining ground from Asian lows of 107.83 but it gave back some gains today by turning back to low 108 area into London open. Overall, risk-on conditions have supported, with USDJPY advances coming on the back of rallying equities. Last week’s 108.37 is a key next resistance level, and above there, market participants could turn their attention to the 50-day MA, which currently sits at 108.50. On the flipside, on the break of 20-day MA at 108.07, next Support comes at 107.79 (June 15 low). USDCAD rallied to July highs, topping at 1.3162 in early North American trade, and up from post-Monday close lows of 1.3111. General USD strength, coming as the market scales back its Fed easing expectations, has provided support to the pair. In addition, a lack of upside in WTI crude, despite geopolitical concerns, largely with Iran, has weighed on the CAD as well. The June 26 high of 1.3196 is the next resistance level if the asset moves above 1.3160, though buy-stops are expected over the 1.3200 level. On the flipside Support is set at 1.3120-1.3125 area. A move below the latter could open the doors below 1.3100 area. Main Macro Events Today Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30) – Preliminary Composite PMIs for Eurozone and Germany are expected to fall in July, to 51.8 and 52.5 respectively, while the Manufacturing PMIs are forecasted at 48.0 and 45.4 respectively. Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs are expected to decline in July, to 50.4 from 50.6 and 51.0 from 51.5 respectively. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 25th July 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th July 2019. FX News Today Treasury yields came down from overnight highs and fell back to 2.04%, unchanged from yesterday’s close. Aussie and Australia’s benchmark bond yields hit record lows after RBA Governor Lowe signalled that he is prepared to cut rates again if needed and Asian stock markets moved cautiously higher. Earnings reports and expectations for further central bank support have helped to underpin equity markets this week, but while markets are looking for a clear easing signal if not a cut from the ECB today, Asian equity markets moved only cautiously higher. Worse than expected losses from Tesla and reports that North Korea resumed missile launches highlighted not only that geopolitical risks remain high, but also that overall valuations are already lofty. US futures are mixed, with NASDAQ futures underperforming and down -0.2%. USOIL spiked to $57.60 on another 10 million barrel draw-down but sank to $56 on weak global economic outlook on the back of the manufacturing PMI data. Euro touched its lowest since May 31 following the weak Eurozone PMIs during the London morning session, printing 1.1127. Gold continues to track sideways with Support at 1,420 and Resistance at 1427. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner EURUSD touched its lowest since May 31, following the weak Eurozone PMIs during the London morning session. Euro weakness has been a feature this week, in anticipation of ECB meeting, where a shift to an easing bias is universally anticipated. Given the weak PMIs, there is a chance the Bank may even cut rates modestly, which would likely weigh further on EURUSD. Next support comes at the June low, of 1.1159 and the 2019 low of 1.1107 seen on May 23. Main Macro Events Today German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is expected to slip to 96.7, after it held steady the past 2 months around the 97 barrier. Event of the week – Interest rate Decision and Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45) –The ECB is meeting on July 25, – shortly after the confirmation of the new PM in London and ahead of the Fed, which is widely expected to cut rates again at the end of the month. On balance, markets see more merit in keeping official rates unchanged next week, while moving to an official easing bias and promising that rates will be at “current or lower” levels well into next year. ECB Monetary Policy Statement (EUR, GMT 12:30) – The July meeting will clearly be a “live” one with doves and hawks battling it out over when to deliver the now widely expected easing measures. It is expected that the majority will see more merit in keeping policy settings unchanged, but change the guidance to introduce a clear easing bias. Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to rise 1.0% in June, after a -1.3% figure in May. Transportation orders should rise 2.7%. Boeing orders rose to only 9 from just zero in May, with weakness due to the hit from problems with the Boeing 737 Max that prompted buyers to delay new purchase commitments. Vehicle assemblies should ease to 11.1 mln from an 11.3 mln pace in May. Durable shipments are expected to rise 0.5%, and inventories should rise 0.6%. The I/S ratio is expected to hold steady at 1.67 since April. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
Date : 30th July 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th July 2019. FX News Today * Treasury yields slip along with core EGBs after BoJ and looking to 25 bp Fed cut and dovish stance. * BoJ kept policy on hold but promised to act aggressively with additional easing measures if its policy goals are threatened. * European stock futures are marginally higher, alongside gains in US futures after a largely positive session for stocks in Asia. * US-Sino trade talks resume today. * In Europe, a no-deal Brexit scenario is looking increasingly certain as the new PM in London steps up the hostile rhetoric and focuses on selling no-deal at home, while showing no interest in re-opening the lines of communication with Brussels. * GBP losses accelerated on no-deal Brexit risk; hit major trend lows vs USD and others. * The WTI future lifted to USD 57.20 per barrel. * German GfK consumer confidence fell back to 9.7 in the advance August reading. With no improvement in manufacturing the improvements on the German labour market are running out of steam and ultimately that will also impact consumption going down the line. Charts of the Day Technician’s Corner * USDJPY: The Yen has firmed moderately in the wake of the BoJ policy announcement. Market narratives have mostly taken the view that the central bank was a little less dovish than expected, especially with both the Fed and ECB heading to rate cuts. USDJPY drifted to near 108.50 from a 3-week high that was seen ahead of the data, following disappointing industrial production figures out of Japan, at 108.94. EURJPY and other Yen crosses saw a similar fall-from-highs price action. The BoJ kept its short-term interest rate target at -0.1% and its pledge to guide 10-year JGB yields around 0% while maintaining its asset buying programme. The central bank signalled its commitment to keep interest rates at current levels “for an extended period of time, at least through around spring 2020,” commenting that “the momentum for achieving 2% inflation is sustained, but lacks strength.” The forward guidance was pretty much unchanged from existing guidance, which seemed to cause a modicum of disappointment in forex markets, though JGB yields still dipped while the JPN225 closed with a 0.4% gain on the day. Overall, the balance of risks for USDJPY and EURJPY seem to the downside, with both the Fed and ECB having much more room to add monetary stimulus than in the case of the BoJ. Main Macro Events Today * Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP inflation is expected to slip back to 1.3% y/y for July after it was revised up to 1.5% y/y in June. * Consumer confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – Consumer confidence is expected to bounce to 128.0 in July from 121.5 in June, versus another 16-month low of 121.7 as recently as January and an 18-year high of 137.9 in October. Overall, confidence measures remain historically high. Support and Resistance levels Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
