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Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by HFblogNews, May 29, 2017.

  1. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 22nd October 2019.

    FX Action | 22nd October 2019.


    [​IMG]

    Commodity currencies posted fresh highs while the Yen retained a softening bias amid a backdrop of rising global equity markets following upbeat rhetoric from both the US and Chinese officials.

    Q3 corporate earnings have so far been positive, albeit with expectations having been guided lower in the run in to the show-and-tell season.

    AUDUSD posted a two-month high at 0.6682,AUDJPY a 12-week high, while NZDUSD ascended into one-month high territory. NZDUSD continues to support an overall bullish outlook after the formation of inverse head and shoulders pattern. It is currently retests 8-week Resistance which is close to 38.2% Fib. level since July’s peak. A move above the latter could strengthen the outlook, with next level to be watched at 50% Fib. , at 0.6500. Support is seta t 0.6350-0.6350.

    [​IMG]

    USDCAD, meanwhile, has printed a 3-month low at 1.3071. The pair is down by about 1% form week-ago levels, and is showing just over a 4% decline on the year-to-date. This follows what is now a three consecutive weeks of underperformance. A recovery in global risk appetite (much reduced no-deal Brexit risk, cancellation of planned U.S. December tariff hikes on Chinese goods) has helped underpin the Canadian Dollar, and other commodity-correlating currencies.

    [​IMG] On the domestic scene, Canadian PM Trudeau’s Liberals are set to form a minority government after a tight election yesterday, though they will have to rely on the left-leaning NDP party to govern, which wants to raise corporate income tax rates and implement a wealth tax, and opposes the Trans Mountain oil pipeline project, which is seen as negatives from the perspective of financial markets.

    Elsewhere, EURUSD, after coming under pressure yesterday in the wake of printing a 2-month high at 1.1179, settled in the mid 1.1100s. The Euro is showing net gains of around 1% against both the Dollar and Yen from week-ago levels, with markets having pretty much unwound the perceived risk for there being a no-deal Brexit scenario on October 31. Currently it reversed lower at 1.1144, while it remains choppy so far, bouncing between 1.1133-1.1160 area.

    GBPUSD has settled in the mid 1.2900s after yesterday posting a 5-month high at 1.3012. The pair is up by nearly 9% from the major-trend lows seen in early September. Regarding Brexit, the UK’s Parliament will today start voting on the legislation for PM Johnson’s divorce deal. This needs to pass at the first go if Brexit is going to happen on October 31. Once the deal has been fully ratified it would still remain subject to the “meaningful vote.”

    The opposition are scheming to either amend the deal so that there is an all-UK customs arrangement, which is unlikely to have sufficient support, and to made the Brexit deal subject to a “confirmatory” referendum, which looks unlikely to pass, though not an impossibility.

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  2. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 24th October 2019.

    Sterling, Extension and Election Polls 24th October 2019.


    [​IMG]

    Everyone concerned is presently waiting on the EU to grant the UK an extension in the Brexit deadline from October 31. The Irish PM along with some EU heavy weights have made public their backing for an extension, out to January 31, though this will have to be agreed by all of the EU27 member states.

    The widespread expectation is that they will, which is why Sterling is not crashing presently, as a refusal would risk a no-deal Brexit scenario at month end. UK PM Johnson met with opposition leader Corbyn earlier to discuss a timetable for ratifying the Brexit deal, with Parliament having voted to reject the government’s program bill to fast-track the legislative process. They failed to reach an agreement.

    Johnson has stated that the government can’t go on and that he will call for a general election in the event EU permits a 3-month extension. He needs 2/3 of MPs to support this, being an out-of-cycle election.

    As for Labour, some political pundits are surprised that the party isn’t pushing for a second referendum on EU membership rather than a general election given its poor standing in polling.

    Overall, the most likely scenario from here is that the EU formally permits an extension and a UK general election is staged by early December.

    In the currency market, Cable has recouped above 1.2900 level since New York session yesterday. According to ING, bulls could hope that Cable is going to make a massive rally through to 1.40.

    “We see a Cable move to 1.40 being too much of a stretch this year – and if it were to happen it would probably involve us and the market massively under-estimating the size of the squeeze in short UK positions – those positions including equities, where fund managers have been underweight UK equities since 2014.”

    [​IMG]

    UK polling ahead of likely general election.

    • Politico’s poll of polls shows PM Johnson’s Conservative Party to be out in front with 35% support.
    • The Brexit Party, which favours nothing but a “clean” — aka “no deal” (given the Northern Ireland border problem) — Brexit, are running with 11% support. Should the two form a coalition, their combined support is 46%.The Labour Party has 25% support.
    • The Liberal Democrats are in third spot with 18% support — a combined support with Labour, of 43% in a hypothetical coalition, less than the Tory-Brexit total.
    As for other parties, the Green Party has 5% and Scotland’s SNP has 3%. It should be stressed that the Conservatives have been ruling out forming an alliance or coalition with the Brexit Party, fearing it would cost the votes of the not-so-hardline Brexit supporters, while the Liberal Democrats have also been saying that they couldn’t contemplate a coalition with Labour while Jeremy Corbyn is their leader, who is unpopular and widely blamed for the historical low-polling that his party has been seeing, and who would put off politically homeless pro-EU Tory voters from shifting their way.

    With the election likely to boil down to a shootout between pro-Brexit and pro-EU sides, what the Tory and Brexit parties will be fearing most are voting pacts between Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens, Plaid Cymru (of Wales) and the SNP, whereby they would tactically withdraw candidates from contesting seats on a seat-by-seat basis in a way that would prevent splitting the anti-Tory Party/anti-Brexit Party vote.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  3. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 25th October 2019.

    Gold sparkles on UK Elections risk 25th October 2019.


    [​IMG]

    Gold sparkles on UK Elections risk – Gold above 1505, USD overall steady, GBP up from lows seen yesterday, while JPY is retaining soft tone. The EU, meanwhile, will reportedly delay their official response to the UK extension from today to Monday or Tuesday next week.



    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  4. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 30th October 2019.

    The Q3 Earnings Season – APPLE 30th October 2019.


    [​IMG]

    Apple Inc. (APPLE), wherein iPhone has been its flagship product for more than 10 years, is scheduled to report its financial results for the quarter ended September 30, 2019 after the US market closes on Wednesday, October 30, 2019. Apple is currently the world’s largest company with a market capital value $ 1.126 trillion. Apple is among the so-called FAANG stocks. FAANG is a group of internet and tech stocks: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, and Google.

    Fundamental
    The company recently released its latest line of iconic iPhone11 (September) as well as MacBook products last July. The investors’ expectation is low for the quarter given the fall of the iPhone sales. The investors are interested to see the impact of the iPhone 11 sales to the quarter, even though it only counted 10 days before end of quarter (Iphone11 only hit the shelves only on September 20).

    Majority of analyst forecast a flat revenue at ~$62 billion which is similar to $62.9 billion posted a year ago. The earning per share is expected at $2.84, down from $2.91 last year. The gross margin is expected at the range between 37.5% and 38.5% (similar to last year). AAPL’s overall fiscal 2019 revenue is projected to dip 2.7% to $258.43 billion, after FY18’s sales surged 16%, with FY17 up 6.3%.

    Technical
    Apple’s stock has been on the bull run, reaching new all-time record high closing prices $248.66 (28th October close). Apple stock has risen by 70% in 2019. Currently, the momentum is still on the upside as risk-on sentiment surges on the back of positive news of President Trump expecting to sign trade deal with China.

    Currently, APPLE share is trading at $248.66. From a technical standpoint, the bull candlestick is dominant with no presence of bearish possibility, it currently trades at top channel of Bollinger band. The immediate support is at 20 1H MA (also a mid-Bollinger band) at $245.50, followed by resistance that became support area at $244. 50 1H MA is at $244 as the following support. The 2018 highest price is at $233.20.

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Tunku Ishak Al-Irsyad
    Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Malaysia
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  5. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 4th November 2019.

    Events to Look Out For Next Week 4th November 2019.


    [​IMG]

    The week starts light again, with Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and the new ECB president Lagarde speech on Monday, followed by RBA rate statement and New Zealand’s jobs report on Tuesday. Bank of England dominates the week as the highly uncertain election campaign begun.

    Monday – 04 November 2019
    • Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:55) – The German October Manufacturing PMI held steady at 41.9, with Germany’s manufacturing sector still firmly in recession. This picture is likely to be seen confirmed in the final readings for October.
    Tuesday – 05 November 2019
    • RBA Interest Rate Decision (AUD, GMT 03:30) – The RBA minutes from the September policy meeting, showed that the central bank remains disposed to further easing. However in the October minutes, Governor Lowe suggested that the Bank is not in a hurry to lower rates asap.
    • ISM Non – Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 15:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to rise to 54.0 in October from 52.6 in September and a prior 19-month low of 56.1 in March, versus a 13-year high of 60.8 in September of last year.
    • Labour Market Data (NZD, GMT 21:45) – The Final reading for Q3 employment change is expected to show further negative labor reports. the unemployment rate is anticipated at 4.0% from 3.9%, while participation rate is seen rising at 70.9%.
    Wednesday – 06 November 2019
    • Retail Sales (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Retail sales moved up 0.3% m/m in August, a partial rebound from the -0.5% m/m decline in the previous month. However, in September the latest slowdown in labour market could keep overall consumption underpinned in the third quarter. The September Retail sales are seen at 0.1% m/m.
    Thursday- 07 November 2019
    • Event of the week – BoE Interest Rate Decision and MPC Vote (GBP, GMT 12:00) – The BoE at the last meeting already indicated that even if uncertainty persists it may need to act to prop up the economy and the upcoming November meeting will bring the BoE’s quarterly updates on growth and inflation. It will come amid a still muddy picture on the Brexit front and just ahead of a general election, so central bankers may be weary of being accused of interfering in the political process if they lean too much out of the window on the Brexit front.
    Friday – 08 November 2019
    • Labour Market Data (CAD, GMT 13:30) – Total employment grew 53.7k in September after the 81.1k surge in August, leaving two months of robust jobs growth that came in well above expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 5.5% in September from 5.7% in August. For October, the unemployment rate is expected to rise at 5.7% while participation rate should remain unchanged.
    • Michigan Sentiment (USD, GMT 15:00) – The preliminary US consumer sentiment for November is forecast at 94.7, 0.8 points below the final in October.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  6. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 05th November 2019.

    FX Action | 05th November 2019.


    [​IMG]

    EUR: Limited rally?

    Asset:EURUSD 1.1129
    Weekly bias: Bearish
    Week’s Range: 1.1097 – 1.1200

    * A no-deal Brexit avoided theme has given both the Euro and Pound a lift lately, though the possibility for a no-deal further down the track remains on the cards, while the protracted political uncertainty in the UK is having a deleterious economic on both sides of the Channel. The ECB is also taking a dovish tilt with Christine Lagarde having taken up the reins. On the dollar side of the balance, with regard to EURUSD, markets are anticipating US non-manufacturing survey data for October, due later today, to rebound from the 3-year low seen in September. This would follow the strong US October jobs report (despite the General Motors strike) and the backdrop of the Fed’s three precautionary rate cuts.

    * EURUSD printed a 6-day low at 1.1112 in what is now the pair’s fourth day trading on a 1.11 handle. The pair has been losing upside momentum after rallying out of sub-1.0900 levels in early October. The Euro has seen signs of weakness against other currencies, although EURJPY has been buoyed by Yen trade yesterday.Against a sputtering Eurozone economy and a dovish ECB, the upside potential of EURUSD should be kept in check. In the long-term pair still classified as being amid a down trend that’s been unfolding since early 2018, from levels around 1.2500. The trend has coincided with the 10-year Bund yield dropping from levels over 0.70% to the prevailing -0.325 % yield (a -0.739% low was seen in early September).

    [​IMG]

    JPY: Looking northwards despite risk-on mode
    Asset: USDJPY 108.80
    Weekly bias: Bullish
    Week’s Range: 107.76 – 109.27

    * The Yen continued on a softening tack into the EUropean session amid a backdrop of continued risk-on positioning in global markets, which have seen sovereign bonds come under pressure and stock markets rally. Maintaining investor spirits were the PBoC cutting its 1-year medium-term lending facility (MLF) rate by 5 bps for the first time since early 2016, and an FT report that the Trump administration was considering removing some tariffs on Chinese goods, which is something that Reuters sources have been saying Beijing has been pushing for.

    * USDJPY rose to a 5-day high at 108.88. EURJPY and AUDJPY also made respective 5-day peaks, at 121.12 and 75.18, and other Yen crosses gained. AUDJPY lifted by over 0.5%, drawing back in on the 3-month high seen last week at 75.29. Positive sentiment for USDJPY holds in the medium picture, as the asset holds above 20- and 50-Day SMA, with momentum indicators positively configured. Hence the intraday decline remains a temporary correction on the 3-day rally.

    [​IMG]

    GBP: Struggling to hold above 1.2900
    Asset: GBPUSD 1.2904
    Weekly bias: Neutral
    Week’s Range: 1.2800-1.2980

    * A no-deal Brexit avoided theme has given Pound a lift lately, though the possibility for a no-deal further down the track remains on the cards, while the protracted political uncertainty in the UK is having a deleterious economic on both sides of the Channel.

    * The Pound stuck at 1.2900 (mid 3-week range) after making up the fourth week out of the last five where a higher high has been set. From month-ago levels, the Pound is the strongest performer out of the main currencies, up 5% against the Dollar and by over 6% versus the Euro, reflecting an unwinding in the pound’s Brexit discount, with a Halloween no-deal Brexit scenario having been avoided.

    [​IMG]

    CAD: Remains heavy
    Spot: USDCAD 1.3124
    Weekly bias: Bearish
    Week’s Range: 1.3075 – 1.3200

    * USDCAD has remained heavy, today matching the 6-day low that was seen yesterday at 1.3130, with the Canadian dollar being floated by a backdrop of coursing risk appetite in global markets, similar to the other Dollar bloc currencies, which has offset the jump in US yields following the strong US jobs data on Friday.

    * Taking a step back, USDCAD is near to the midpoint of the range that’s been seen over the last 4-plus years.

    [​IMG]

    AUD: Remains on bid
    Asset: AUDUSD 0.6917
    Weekly bias: Neutral to Bullish
    Week’s Range: 0.6770- 0.6945

    * AUDJPY is the biggest gainer on the day so far, showing a rise of 0.9% at prevailing levels. The cross has printed a three-week high at 75.40. AUDUSD has concurrently rallied by over 0.6%, coming within of the three-week peak that was seen last week, at 0.6929.

    *The Aussie Dollar is also showing outperformance form month-ago levels, with only sterling having been stronger out of the main currencies over this period. The currency has a relatively high beta characteristic, and is widely seen as a liquid currency proxy of China, which accounts for over a third of the total demand for Australian commodity exports, and has therefore acted in a true to form manner amid the recent upward scaling in global stock markets. The main three US indices hit new record peaks yesterday, while Asian and European markets have rallied to fresh major-trend highs today.


    [​IMG]


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  7. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 6th November 2019.

    USD still in the driving seat 6th November 2019.


    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    USDJPY, H1
    The Dollar has been consolidating gains seen yesterday, which had been driven by more strong October data (non-manufacturing ISM, which backed up last week’s surprisingly solid employment report) and hopes a partial trade deal with China will be struck. The risk-on vibe that was coursing through global markets in the wake of last Friday’s US payrolls data has come off the boil, with the valuations of many major equity indices looking rich amid a degree of circumspection creeping in with regard to whether the 13th round of trade talks between the US and China will produce a deal. The key USA500 actually closed in negative territory yesterday although it is currently trading up and testing the daily pivot point at 3078.

    [​IMG]

    Against this backdrop, the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) has ebbed back by a fractional 0.1% after rallying by about 1% over the previous two days. EURUSD has settled just above the three-week low seen yesterday at 1.1063. Cable has lodged in the upper 1.2800s after failing to sustain gains above 1.2900. USDJPY is also softer, aided by a degree of Yen outperformance, which has seen EURJPY, AUDJPY and other yen crosses ebb back somewhat. USDJPY fell back below 109.0 after posting a one-week high yesterday at 109.25. The Australian Dollar and other dollar bloc currencies have also traded at softer levels after outperforming in recent sessions.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst

    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  8. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 7th November 2019.

    BoE seen on hold – Not interfering with politics 7th November 2019.


    [​IMG]

    The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee announces the outcome of this week’s meeting today. The strong consensus is for no change, which would leave the repo rate at 0.75% and QE totals unchanged, though there is a chance that we’ll see dovish dissent amid the ranks of the nine-member committee, with members Saunders and Vlieghe having recently voiced concern about the damage that Brexit uncertainty is doing.

    Most members look be preferring to remain on hold into the December general election. Both of the principal parties in the UK, the Conservatives and Labour, are pledging fiscal spending if they are elected, which won’t have gone unnoticed at the MPC.

    The BoE will also release its quarterly Inflation Report, which isn’t expected to show much change to existing projections, although it is clear that the prolonged uncertainty is increasingly damaging the outlook and has already led to a sharp decline in investment. London markets are pricing in about 45% odds for a 25 bps rate cut by next May, and an 85% chance for such a move by the end of 2020.

    Meanwhile….UK’s December Election on December 12!

    The divided parliament finally threw in the towel and the UK is now heading for a general election on December 12 to try and break the deadlock on the Brexit front. It is a risky move for Johnson, who so far has been rejecting the advances of the Brexit party, which is campaigning for a no-deal scenario and if Johnson continues to hold out there is the risk that not just the anti-Brexit, but also the pro-Brexit vote will be split.

    That means another split parliament cannot be ruled out and if the Brexit party were to gain a sizeable number of seats it would increase the pressure on Johnson to go ahead with a no-deal scenario.

    In any case, Johnson has pledged to stick to the current time table for the transition period, which will give him just a year to get a trade deal with the EU wrapped up. Even if Johnson’s ambitions on that front are not as high as May’s this seems an impossibly short time to get a meaningful arrangement wrapped up. In any case, Johnson’s deal looks set to involve nothing like the “friction less” trade that U.K. manufacturers will be looking for and border checks will likely still disrupt supply chains across Europe.

    And GBP Waiting for Brexit resolution

    From month-ago levels, the Pound is the strongest performer out of the main currencies, up 5% against the Dollar and by over 6% versus the Euro. The gains reflect an unwinding in the Pound’s Brexit discount, with a Halloween no-deal Brexit scenario having been avoided.

    The broad trade-weighted measure of the Pound is expected to retain at about a 8-9% discount relative to levels prevailing ahead of the July 2015 Brexit vote, which has been pared back from lows of 15%-plus. As the UK now finds itself with Brexit delayed for a second time and once again in a quagmire of political uncertainty, no significant unwinding is anticipating for Sterling’s Brexit discount as all options remain open with regard to how Brexit is resolved — ranging from no deal to Brexit cancelled, depending on the results of the December-12 general election and any referendum after the election.

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst

    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  9. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 08th November 2019.

    FX Action | 08th November 2019.

    [​IMG]

    EUR: Retests 50-day SMA

    Asset:EURUSD 1.1048
    Daily bias: Ranging intraday sentiment
    Week’s Range: 1.1026 – 1.1058

    * EURUSD has been playing a narrow range near 1.1050, above the 23-month low seen yesterday at 1.1036. The pair is showing a net loss of just over 1% from week-ago levels, coming after the surprisingly strong US jobs report of last Friday, and followed-up this week by decent non-manufacturing ISM and initial jobless claims data.A sputtering Eurozone economy has been put into relatively sharp contrast by data showing the U.S. economy to be in finer fettle than many were fearing, while the CME’s FedWatch Tool is showing market pricing to have factored in decreasing probability for a rate cut at the December FOMC, with only 5% down from 22% last week (before the October payrolls release).

    * Overall, EURUSD holds in a bearish outlook. EURUSD has been amid a bear trend that’s been unfolding since early 2018, from levels around 1.2500 and it is just abreath away from breaking the 50-day SMA. A close today below the latter could seen the retest of 1.1000 and 1.0970 levels.

    * The trend has coincided with the 10-year T-note versus 10-year Bund yield differential having narrowed from 278 bps to the current 216 bps.


    [​IMG]

    JPY: AUDJPY reverses gains
    Asset: USDJPY 75.36
    Daily bias: Bearish
    Week’s Range: 74.73-75.80

    * Narrow ranges have been seen so far today among the main currencies, which comes with a degree of uncertainty creeping back in with regard to the prospects of a “phase 1” trade deal being reached between the US and China. There are reports of fierce internal opposition among members of the Trump administration, while there is conjecture that President Trump will be emboldened by recent relatively strong U.S. data releases and the record highs on Wall Street and will be apt to take a tough stance against Beijing. This has seen Asian stock markets turn softer.

    * USDJPY, after scaling to a 5-month high at 109.48, has settled around 109.20-30, while has currently return northwards again. AUDJPY, which has been an outperformer amid the recent risk-on phase (showing a 7.4% gain at prevailing levels from late-August lows), has also settled lower after printing a 3-month peak yesterday. It is currently retest the midpoint of yesterday’s rally. A confirm move below the latter at the top of the ahour, along with the RSI below 50 suggest the increase of negative bias and therefore a possible retest of 74.90-74.98 ( 61.8% Fib and 200-period SMA) or even lower at the S1 of the day, i.e. 74.73. The strengthening of negative bias is also presented by the lower Bollinger bands which are extending southwards.

    [​IMG]

    CAD: Remains buoyant
    Spot: USDCAD 1.3171
    Weekly bias: Bearish
    Week’s Range: 1.3118 – 1.3230

    USDCAD has remained buoyant after posting a 9-day high yesterday at 1.3197. The high has come with the US 10-year over Canadian 10-year yield spread having been trending wider, overall, over the last three weeks, rising from about 19 bp to 29 bp, which has offset a moderate rise in oil prices over this period (oil prices have been trending sideways, within about a $13 range, over the last five months).

    USDCAD USDCAD earlier in the week printed a 1-week low at 1.3015 before rebounding. Taking a couple of steps back, USDCAD is near to the midpoint of the range that’s been seen over the last 4-plus years, and there presently doesn’t look to be much potential for this pattern to break. The focus today falls on Canada’s October employment report. From the technical perspective, the asset has broke a significant Resistance level at 1.3195, which represents the 50-day EMA and the 6 day’s high. This along with the positive configuration of RSI suggest that we could seen further upside for the day. ENxt Resistance levels are at 1.3213 and 1.3230 (200-day EMA). Support is at the PP and the low of the day , i.e 1.3170-1.3176.

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  10. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 11th November 2019.

    Events to Look Out For Next Week 11th November 2019.


    [​IMG]

    Important events are coming up this week, with UK, China and US inflation and GDP releases.

    Monday – 11 November 2019
    • Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK growth has “slowed materially” this year due to Brexit uncertainty and global trade wars. September forecasts see GDP growth steady, while the preliminary outcome for Q3 is anticipated to slow down.
    Tuesday – 12 November 2019
    • ILO & Average Earnings Index 3m/y (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Earnings with the bonus-excluded figure are seen unchanged at 3.8% y/y in the three months to September. UK ILO unemployment is expected steady at 3.9%.
    • ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 10:00) – Economic Sentiment for November is projected at -22.7 from the -22.8 seen last month, as the current conditions indicator for Germany turned negative. The overall Eurozone reading though is expected to decline slightly further to -32.5 from -23.5. A lower than expected outcome ties in with the stagnation in market sentiment.
    Wednesday – 13 November 2019
    • Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (NZD, GMT 01:00) – The RBNZ is widely expected to proceed with a 25 bp cut to 0.75% as it continues to ease policy amid the slowing in growth. However, it will be interesting to see whether RBNZ will signal further easing in contrast with the latest encouraging economic data.
    • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 09:30) – The UK CPI is expected to rebound to a 1.8% y/y rate in October after dipping to 1.7% in September and August from 2.1% in July.
    • Consumer Price Index (USD, GMT 13:30) – A 0.3% October headline CPI rise is anticipated with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective September readings of flat and 0.1%. As-expected gains would result in a headline y/y increase of 1.7% for a third consecutive month, just as core prices rise 2.4% y/y for a third consecutive month. An up-tilt in y/y gains into Q1 of 2020 is expected due to harder comparisons and some lift from tariff increases that should leave gains in the 2.4% area, which may help ease concerns about persistent inflation undershoots of the Fed’s 2% objective.
    • Powell’s 2-day Testimony (USD, GMT 16:00) – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress, providing a broad overview of the economy and monetary policy.
    Thursday – 14 November 2019
    • Employment Data (AUD, GMT 00:30) – While the unemployment rate is expected to have increase at 5.3% in October, employment change is expected to have stabilized, at 15K compared to 14.7K last month.
    • Retail Sales ex Fuel (GBP, GMT 09:30) – UK Retail Sales are expected to have dipped with a -0.9% ex-auto figure on a m/m basis.
    • Gross Domestic Product (EUR, GMT 13:30) – Eurozone Q3 GDP growth held steady at 0.2% q/q – a better than expected report that highlighted once again that it is a mistake to reduce the Eurozone economy to the German manufacturing sector alone. The same outcome is expected on Thursday as well, at 0.2% q/q for Eurozone preliminary reading.
    Friday – 15 November 2019
    • Retail Sales (USD, GMT 14:30) – A 0.4% October gains for both the retail sales headline and the ex-auto figures have been estimated, following a -0.3% September headline dip with a -0.1% ex-auto figure. Gasoline prices should give a boost to retail activity given an estimated 4% increase for the CPI gasoline index. Unit vehicle sales should ease in October with a dip to an estimated 17.0 mln pace from 17.2 mln in September. Real consumer spending is expected to grow at a 2.6% rate in Q4, following the 2.9% Q3 clip.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     

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