January 18. German economy faces significant decline if restrictions are extended The Bundesbank said today that the German economy still manages to stay afloat, but it could also face a «tangible blow» if the country extends restrictions to combat the coronavirus. As early as autumn, Germany introduced tougher measures, such as the closure of some schools and shops, to restrict the movement of people and prevent the spread of Covid. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is in favor of taking very quick measures to avoid mass morbidity. German authorities will meet this week to discuss tougher restrictions. However, the German central bank fears that if the measures are extended, the country's economy could be seriously affected.
January 19. Important macroeconomic publications of the day Macroeconomic calendar on Tuesday does not differ in the variety of publications, however, attention should be paid to the following reports that can affect the dynamics of trading in the single European currency. According to the report of the German Institute ZEW, the index of business sentiment in Germany, assessing business expectations, amounted to 61.8 points in January against 55.0 a month earlier. Analysts predicted the value of the January indicator at 55.1. A similar report on business sentiment in the eurozone showed an increase in the indicator from 54.4 points in December to 58.3 points in January. Experts had expected the value of the January indicator at 54.1. The German Federal Office for Statistics Destatis presented its final inflation report today. The consumer price index in Germany rose 0.5% in December, in line with preliminary data and analysts' forecasts. In annual terms, consumer inflation in December decreased by 0.7%.
January 20. Joe Biden takes over as President of the United States Today is a very important day for the United States of America – the inauguration of the new President-elect Joe Biden. The 78-year-old Democrat will become the oldest president in U.S. history and lead a country plagued by the coronavirus pandemic and political divisions. Biden's companion Kamala Harris, the daughter of immigrants from Jamaica and India, will become the first black, first woman, and first Asian American to be elected US Vice President. The inauguration ceremony will take place at the Capitol Building, where the unprecedented storming of the building by supporters of Donald Trump was organized on January 6. As a result of this «action», the US House of Representatives last week impeached the incumbent president for the second time, which also has never happened in the history of the country. Contrary to tradition, the outgoing president will not be present at the inauguration of his successor: this morning D. Trump left the White House and Washington without admitting defeat in the elections.
January 21. ECB expectedly kept the base rate at zero level The Board of Governors of the European Central Bank (ECB) at its meeting today kept the base interest rate at a record low zero, as expected by most experts. The rate has been at this level since March 2016. The deposit rate was also left unchanged – at the level of minus 0.5%, while the margin rate remained at 0.25%. The European regulator noted that it will keep all rates at (or below) the current level until inflation approaches the target level of 2%. In addition to rates, the ECB left unchanged the parameters of the special asset purchase program Pandemic emergency purchase program (PEPP). At the moment, its volume is 1.85 trillion euros. The program will run at least until the end of March 2022.
January 25. Negative statistics from Germany dropped the euro The euro rate, which showed growth in tandem with its main opponent, went down after the release of weak macroeconomic statistics from Germany. The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.2145. In particular, data from the IFO research institute reflected a decrease in the business climate index in Germany to 90.1 points compared to 92.2 points in December. At the same time, analysts had expected the indicator to decline only to 91.8 points. The assessment of the current economic situation in the country in January also fell more than the forecast – to 89.2 points from 91.3 points in December. In addition, the country's business expectations index fell to 91.1 points against the December index of 93 points, while analysts predicted its growth.
January 26. The oil market has good growth potential Oil prices continued to rise on Tuesday: Brent has reached $56 per barrel, WTI – $53,25. At the same time, the potential for further strengthening remains. Some days earlier the information appeared that Iraq plans to reduce oil production to 3.6 million barrels per day, which will be compensation for unfair fulfillment of the terms of the OPEC + deal in 2020. And if Iraq keeps its promises, then the volume of production in the country will decline to the lowest level since 2015. An additional factor in the rise in oil prices may be the interruptions in exports in Libya, caused by delays in the payment of salaries to the security personnel of the oil facilities. Before these conflicts, Libya saw a rapid recovery in oil production: in December, production reached 1.2 million barrels per day, while in August production volumes were less than 100 thousand barrels per day. Also, market participants continue to monitor the spread of Covid-19 in the world and the progress of negotiations on new economic stimulus in the United States. US President Joe Biden is pushing for the early adoption of a new $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package. The inflow of new money into the US economy will put pressure on the dollar, which, in turn, will act as a factor supporting Brent quotes.
January 27. Biden considers Nord Stream-2 a bad deal for Europe US President Joe Biden said that he considers the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project a bad deal for Europe and intends to revise the restrictions adopted by Congress under Donald Trump. These sanctions were included in the US annual defense budget (NDAA) and, according to them, the restrictions apply to any company that helps Gazprom lay a pipeline, insure ships, certify and repair equipment. The Trump administration has argued that the project will strengthen the economic and political influence of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Europe. The new president is also opposed to further construction of the gas pipeline. Perhaps the new restrictions will be even stricter. As a reminder, at present Russia has resumed the implementation of Nord Stream 2 after foreign pipelayers left the project due to the threat of US sanctions.
January 29. Bitcoin rose after Elon Musk's tweet According to the trading data, the growth of bitcoin on Friday accelerated sharply, exceeding the $38 mark. The growth driver was the publication of Elon Musk on his Twitter page, where the entrepreneur mentioned bitcoin, adding the hashtag «bitcoin». Also, the head of Tesla and SpaceX wrote a separate message: «In retrospect, it was inevitable.» As a result, the rate of the first cryptocurrency immediately skyrocketed from $32 thousand to $38 thousand, stabilizing slightly during the day at $37 thousand.Thus, in about an hour, the price of bitcoin increased by more than 17%. A few days earlier, Elon Musk «boosted» another cryptocurrency – previously little-known Dogecoin. It skyrocketed in value by more than 800% after Musk's «joke» mention on his Twitter account.
February 01. Silver prices skyrocket to 8-year highs Silver prices have jumped 16% over the past three trading sessions. The current quotation of the asset is $30.133 per ounce, which is a new high since February 2013. Experts point out that the rush for silver may have emerged after a message appeared last week urging people to invest in silver on the private trader community on Reddit (a social news site). Forum participants decided to raise the price of the metal after the success with the shares of the GameStop company and the Dogecoin meme cryptocurrency. Silver began to rise last week amid calls from traders to buy the metal to put pressure on banks trying to capitalize on its price decline. And on January 29, the net capital inflow to IShares Silver Trust, the largest exchange-traded fund backed by silver, reached an unprecedented amount of $944 million. Investor interest in silver has also led to a surge in the value of silver-mining companies and ETFs that are pegged to silver. So the securities of the silver mining corporation First Majestic Silver soared by 30% in the last two trading sessions.
February 03. The number of jobs in the private sector in the United States in January grew better than expected According to a press release from the analytical company Automatic Data Processing (ADP), the number of jobs in private companies in the United States in January increased by 174,000. Analysts predicted an increase in the indicator by only 49 thousand. The December figure was revised down to a decrease of 78 thousand from a decrease of 123 thousand. In the US small business, the number of jobs in January increased by 51 thousand, in medium-sized companies (with a staff of 50-499 people) – by 84 thousand, and large companies increased their staff by 39 thousand jobs. In the service sector, the number of jobs increased by 156 thousand, in the production of goods – by 19 thousand. At the same time, the figure for private construction companies in the country in January increased by 18 thousand, in the manufacturing sector – by 1 thousand.
