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Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by HFblogNews, May 29, 2017.

  1. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 19th February 2021.

    US Open – Dollar, Oil & Gold Pressured; Equities higher.

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    The Dollar has softened for a second consecutive day, despite US Treasury yields perking up, although remaining off trend highs seen earlier in the week. Global stock markets have continued to exhibit a sputtering price action in the face of historically stretched valuations and the recent spike in yields. In the commodity realm, oil prices have corrected while base metals have remained buoyant, with nickel and particularly Copper, for instance, posting fresh major trend highs.

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    The USDIndex posted a three-day low at 90.19, finding some support at the S2 level, which marks a little over a two-thirds retrace of the gains that were seen on Tuesday and Wednesday. EURUSD concurrently rose above 1.2100 for the first time since Wednesday, to stall at R2 1.2140. USDJPY dropped for a third straight day, posting a three-day low below S2 105.30. The Yen traded softer against most other currencies. Cable lifted above 1.4000 for the first time since April 2018, while the Pound traded softer against the Euro, correcting after rising against the common currency on each day over the last week, which produced an 11-month peak yesterday.

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    There was unusual divergence among the dollar bloc, which correlated with the divergence between rising base metal prices and a concurrent fall in oil prices, with the Australian Dollar outperforming the main currencies while the Canadian Dollar underperformed. This saw the AUDCAD cross lift by over 0.7% in pegging a 32-month high at 0.9915. AUDUSD, meanwhile, surged 1% in making a 35-month high at 0.7843, while AUDJPY rallied into 26-month high territory. USDCAD ebbed comparatively moderately, to a three-day low at 1.2632, while the Canadian Dollar weakened against the Euro and Yen, among other currencies.

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    Weaker oil prices affected the Loonie and other oil correlating currencies. Front-month WTI oil futures dove over 2.5% in posting a one-week low as USOIL touched $58.57. USOil is down over 5% from the 13-month high that was seen yesterday at $62.26. Bitcoin continued to hold firm on dips, aided by Elon Musk asserting that bitcoin “is simply a less dumb form of liquidity than cash.” Gold, which spiked to 7-month lows during the Asian session at $1760.58, has since recovered over $1770.00 but is down for a seventh consecutive day, losing over 4%.

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    US equity futures have extended higher to post small gains with the USA30 up 0.1%, the USA500 0.4% firmer, and the USA100 0.5% higher. European bourses are in the green with the GER30 rallying 0.5% while the UK100 lags and is only 0.1% higher.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    HeadMarket Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  2. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 22nd February 2021.

    Markets Update – February 22 – It’s all about the Yields.

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    Market News Today
    Equities heavy as Yields, Copper and VIX soar. USD recovers from lows; safe haven JPY & CHF suffer. US10yr yields touched 1.38% (now 1.345%), Equities closed down on Friday and for the week, FUTS now into 5th day lower. Reflation trade & progress in vaccination worldwide, especially in developed economies, helps commodity currencies & boosts sentiment for riskier assets. Commodities lifted (especially Copper) – except Gold ($1790) which appears to be losing its inflation hedge status to BTC, (new ATHs over $57K). VIX FUTS up 4.4% to 25.80.

    This week – RBNZ rate decision, Progress on stimulus 1.9tn stimulus package, US GDP, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, PCE & Powell testimony. Earnings season continues (392 of S&P500 reported – 80% have beat estimates)

    Today – German IFO, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Bowman. UK PM Johnson to outline lockdown exit plans for England. Earnings from Marathon Oil & Occidental Petroleum.

    [​IMG]

    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.34%) Rallied from 200MA on Friday (0.8940) Over 20 Ma Friday over R1 and R2 today – moving to test 0.9000 Faster MA’s aligned and trending higher, RSI 72 OB but still rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and broke over 0 line on open today. Stochs. very OB and touching 100. H1 ATR 0.0009 Daily ATR 0.0080.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  3. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 23rd February 2021.

    Market Update – February 23 – USD Remains Heavy.

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    Market News Today
    Equities heavy & USD down again (Nasdaq –2.46%, TSLA -8.55% but DIS+4.4%) as Yields (+1.8% 10yr) & Commodities (inc. Oil +2% & Gold) gained. Commodity currencies close to 3-year highs. Another volatile session for BTC – 57k-49K. Facebook restores some Aussie news sites, Marathon & Occidental both missed expectations, HSBC announced a 34% fall in profits. Huawei launched a $2,800 foldable phone. US passed 500,000 Covid deaths (20% of global total) & England announced a slow exit from lockdowns. UK labour data was weak but better than expected (claims down & earnings up).

    The Dollar remained on a softening path in what is now a fourth consecutive trading day of weakening, which has spanned over phases of both risk-on and risk-wary sentiment in global markets, alongside a continued ascent in Treasury yields.

    Overall, as witnessed by gains in commodity prices over this period, which have been attributed by some market narratives today as helping revive stock market sentiment in Asia, the reflation trade remains in play. Copper prices, for instance, hit fresh 10-year highs today, and are up by nearly 20% on the year to day and by 62% from year-ago levels. Other base metals have seen a similar magnitude of advance.

    There remains a conviction in markets that the reflation trade — the escape from pandemic recession and slow growth to the anticipated eventual return to societal and economic normalcy, fuelled by massive stimulus and a presumed unleashing of a pent up consumer ‘lockdown savings’ spending spree in developed economies — is inherently dollar bearish. The Dollar is richly valued by the measure of historic trade weighted levels, and many value/relative value investment opportunities in the inflation trade lie outside of the US economy. SocGen research, for instance, last week highlighted that the consensus expectation is for earnings to rise 30% in 2021 for companies in the MSCI World Index, and by 40% in emerging markets. That said, the Dollar (as measured by the USDIndex) remains above its early January lows. When it became clear that the Democrats would control the Senate following the early-January Georgia run-off elections, this put the brakes on what had been an unfolding dollar weakening trend — especially in light of the consequential passing of the gargantuan $1.9 tln stimulus bill, which has the potential to bring forward Fed tightening sooner than it would otherwise have been. But for now the Fed is likely to stick to its dovish guns, which is what we expect Fed chair Powell will do to today during his Congressional testimony of the central bank’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.

    Today – EZ CPI (final), US Consumer Confidence, Fed Chair Powell’s semi-annual testimony to the Senate, BoC’s Macklem.

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    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (-0.34%) Rejected 0.9250 yesterday, moved under PP, 20Hr & 50Hr MA earlier to test toward 0.9200. Recovered 50MA now. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 45 and neutral, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower, with a weak break of 0 line. Stochs. approaching OS. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0055.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  4. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 24th February 2021.

    Market Update – February 24 – Sterling & Commodity Currencies Soar.

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    Market News Today
    Equities recover from significant falls, Powell pushes for inflation, USD remains heavy, yields cool from highs, NZD spikes following RBNZ. Commodity currencies & Sterling at 3-year highs, Copper at near 10-year high, Oil slipped from 1-year highs. Gold holds over $1800. BTC up from under 45k to recover 50K. German GDP beats at 0.3%. Overnight – Japanese Inflation slips, ASO talks weak Q1 GDP and need for more Bonds. Nikkei closed lower -1.6%.

    The Pound and the New Zealand Dollar surged to fresh trend highs, which along with a side theme of yen weakness, provided the main action during Asian trading ahead of the London interbank open. Cable spiked by some 180 pips from yesterday’s New York closing level in posting a fresh 36-month high at 1.4234. The pair subsequently settled lower, to the upper 1.4100s, which still left Sterling with a near 1% gain on the day. At the same time, EURGBP dropped sharply, to a one-year low at 0.8541, while GBPJPY stormed above the 150.00 level for the first time since May 2018.

    Stop orders and option related demand was reported. It’s not clear if there was a specific catalyst, though the Telegraph newspaper reported British government sources saying that Covid restrictions could be lifted sooner than laid out in PM Johnson’s roadmap, which was outlined earlier in the week, if “real world data on the effect of vaccines is better than expected.” So far the data has been encouraging, and the UK’s ahead-of-the-pack vaccine rollout has been bullish factor for the Pound. The UK economy and the Pound underperformed peers during the height of the first lockdowns last year, and the vista of reopening has been having the opposite effect, especially with Brexit uncertainty having finally ended.

    The Kiwi Dollar, meanwhile, also rallied, after initially dipping in the immediate wake of the RBNZ policy announcement. The antipodean central bank left the cash rate unchanged at 0.25%, as had been widely anticipated, while the main takeaway from the statement and Governor Orr’s press conference is that policymakers now see the next move as being a tightening, although this was framed in context of uncertainty, ongoing risks to growth etc. Once market participants discerned this, NZDUSD rallied briskly to a new 34-month high at 0.7384.

    As for the Yen, the currency posted across-the-board declines. USDJPY consequentially lifted to a two-day at 105.58, while AUDJPY and NZDJPY printed new 26-month highs, and CADJPY a one-year peak. EURJPY jumped to within 15 pips of recent 26-month highs, while EURUSD remained rooted in a 20-pip range in the mid 1.2100s. The other dollar bloc currencies, outside the case of the New Zealand Dollar, posted fresh highs, despite weaker global stock markets and softer commodity prices today. AUDUSD pegged a three-year high at 0.7945, while USDCAD dropped to a 34-month low at 1.2557. Equity markets remained under pressure, with Fed chair Powell not doing quite enough to damp down yields during his Senate testimony yesterday, while a rise in stock-trading stamp duty was in part behind a steep decline in Chinese stocks today.

    Today – US new home sales, DoEs, BoE’s Haldane, Bailey, Vlieghe, Haskel, Broadbent, Fed’s Powell, Brainard, Clarida.

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    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.73%) Rallied from break of 20MA yesterday at 148.00 to breach 150.00 earlier. R3 149.20, trades at 14960 now. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 80.00 & OB, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher with a big break of 0 line yesterday. Stochs. down from OB zone. H1 ATR 0.2630, Daily ATR 0.9350.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  5. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 25th February 2021.

    Market Update – February 25 – Risk On, Commodity Currencies lead.

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    Market News Today – USD at 3-year lows, Equities recover over 1%, (Dow over 32K) Yields cool again but remain relatively elevated (10yr – 1.41%). RISK ON. JPY & CHF heavy. Commodity currencies & Sterling hold bid, EUR breaks January resistance. Copper at 10-year high, Oil at 13-mth high, Gold under $1800. BTC at 50K. Sentiment lifted as J&J announce a single shot vaccine and independent study shows Pfizer vaccine 94% effective. Overnight – Nikkei up 1.67%, German Gfk confidence ticks higher, Gamestock rallied over 100% and then another 75+% after hours!

    Reflation trades are back in full swing with bonds selling off and stocks rallying, with the combination of fiscal stimulus and ongoing monetary support fulling the moves. US 10-year rates have dropped back from session highs, but are still up 3.2 bp at 1.41%. Japan’s 10-year has gained 2.1 bp to 0.125% and longer dated benchmarks have now broken multi-annual highs. Australia and New Zealand bonds underperformed and Australia’s 10-year rate lifted nearly 12 bp, despite the fact that the RBA bought bonds for the second time this week. Fed Chair Powell tried to dampen inflation concerns and Vice Chair Clarida said he expects current bond purchases to be maintained at the current pace for the rest of the year. That will likely continue to underpin risky assets and in some quarters add to concerns that easy money is fuelling bubbles in equities and elsewhere.

    Today – US Durable Goods, GDP, Weekly Claims & PCE Prices. ECB’s Lane, de Guindos, de Cos, Fed’s Bostic, Bullard, Quarles, Williams, and Earnings from over 400 companies in US & Europe.

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    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.36%) Continued yesterday’s momentum rallying from 83.20 and holding over break of 20MA testing over R2 (84.50) to 84.65, R3 85.00. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 77 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but flattening after big break of 0 line yesterday. Stochs down from OB zone but rising again. H1 ATR 0.1325, Daily ATR 0.6000.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  6. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 26th February 2021.

    Market Update – February 26 – End of Month shenanigans.

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    Market News Today

    Yields spike (10-yr +9.27% – over 1.52), Equities tank (Nasdaq -3.52%, Nikkei -4%), USD off 3-year lows. Commodity, EM currencies & Sterling cool from highs. Oil holds up (US attack on Iranian groups in Syria), Gold falls further under $1770, BTC at $45K. US data yesterday biased to the upside (big fall Claims, Durables beat & GDP in-line.) Overnight – weak Housing, also weak but better than expected CPI & Retail data from JPY. Senate rejects $15 min wage in Stimulus bill and looks to trim the $1.9t proposals.

    The dollar and yen rallied as a risk-off theme coursed through global markets, with equity markets, commodities, including base metals and oil, all tumbling. The sharp spike in US and most other sovereign yields this week and the associated concerns about inflation have driven the correction in risk assets and currencies. We maintain that sovereign yields are lifting out of exceptionally low levels, that rising yields and interest rates are par for the course in major bull markets in equities by historic standards, and that the prospect of higher corporate earnings can still carry equities higher. But for now, the prevailing bias is a risk-off one, although Treasury yields have dropped back quite sharply from highs today. In the mix today has been news of a US airstrike in Syria against infrastructure used by Iranian-backed militia, which was reportedly in response to recent Iranian attacks on US interests in Iraq.

    The USDIndex rallied nearly 0.5% in posting a four-day high at 90.49, while EURUSD concurrently dropped to a two-day low at 1.2129. Cable retreated back under 1.4000 on route to pegging an eight-day low at 1.3903. The Australian and New Zealand dollars underperformed, not surprisingly, having been outperformers during the risk-on times. AUDUSD fell over 0.5% in printing a one-week low at 0.7805. USDCAD lifted to a four-day peak at 1.2649, extending the sharp rebound out of yesterday’s three-year low at 1.2466. The Yen, meanwhile, has been the biggest gainer, outperforming even the dollar so far today as its traditional role as a haven currency become re-established. USDJPY dropped from a six-month high at 106.43 to a low at 105.86. Yen crosses dropped sharply out of trend highs in synchrony, with AUDJPY, for instance, diving some 2.5% from the three-year high the cross had seen yesterday.

    Over in the cryptocurrency world, sharp declines have made a return. Bitcoin has hit a low so far just above $44,000, which is nearly 15% down on yesterday’s high and some 25% down on the record peak that was seen earlier in the week. Arguments by crypto advocates that bitcoin is a hedge against inflation have evidently been found wanting.

    Today – US Personal Income, PCE & core PCE, Chicago PMI, Uni of Michigan, ECB’s Schnabel, BoE’s Ramsden, Haldane.

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    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.61%) Reversal of yesterday’s rally towards 85.00. Broke lower and under 20MA at R1 84.45 yesterday, now under PP and testing S1 and 200hr MA at 83.00. Faster MAs aligned and trending lower, RSI 34 and falling, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower, falling after break of 0 line earlier. Stochs up from OS zone and rising again. H1 ATR 0.1325, Daily ATR 0.6000.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  7. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 2nd March 2021.

    Forex Update – March came in like a bull for Wall Street.

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    The major indexes surged sharply higher on the back of more good news on vaccines and the expectation of massive stimulus sooner than later. Another batch of stronger than expected data helped too. But opening the door for the gains was the more subdued tenor of the Treasury market. In the Asia session, the risk aversion returned and stock market sentiment faded. Major indexes quickly pared early gains and headed south, while Treasuries were supported and the US rate dropped back -0.2%.

    The risk-on flows lifted longer dated Treasury yields, but the cheapening was much more orderly than last week’s furious 20 bps intraday jumps in the 10- and 30-year maturities. A heavy corporate calendar is also contributing to the losses in Treasuries with the focus on a $7 bln 6-part deal from Goldman Sachs.

    Headlines:

    • The February ISM and the January construction spending strongly beat expectations and contributed to upward revisions in GDP projections.
    • The RBA left policy settings unchanged and while that was expected, market reaction suggests that there was some hope of supportive action, especially after the central bank doubled its bond purchases on Monday.
    • China’s banking regulator highlighted worries about bubbles in overseas financial markets, but also domestic property markets, with suggestions that leverage will be reduced, which only added to concerns about further tightening in China.
    • Dovish comments from ECB’s Villeroy, who called for an active use of PEPP purchases and flagging the possibility of a deposit rate cut seem to have helped to boost confidence that the central bank will manage to avoid a cliff edge scenario on stimulus, without stoking inflation.
    • The Pfizer PFE.N and AstraZeneca vaccines are more than 80% effective at preventing hospitalisations from COVID-19 in those over 80 after one dose of either shot, Public Health England said on Monday, citing a pre-print study.
    Forex Market

    EUR – 3rd day lower at 1.2075. Next Support at 1.2000.
    GBP– crossed the 20-DMA and currently is traded at 1.3878.
    JPY – Yen found buyers, leaving USDJPY at 106.80.
    AUD – holds steady between 20-and 50-DMA
    CAD –CAD has been soft, weighed on also by the continuing weak oil prices during the session.
    GOLD –slumped to its lowest in 9 months, as a stronger Dollar and elevated US Treasury yields eroded investor appetite for the non-yielding metal.
    USOil – below $60 as expectations that OPEC would agree to raise oil supply in a meeting this week added to pressure and worries over slowing demand in China dampened sentiment.

    Today: Calendar focuses on Eurozone inflation data for February, as well as German jobless numbers and retail sales and Canadian GDP for Q4. Also on tap speeches from ECB’s Panetta and Fed’s Brainard.

    One of the bigger movers – XAGUSD (-2.19% decline)



    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  8. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 5th March 2021.

    Market Update – March 5 – Jobs, Jobs, Jobs.

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    What Fed Chair Powell did not say that shook up the markets.

    Wall Street turned sharply lower following Fed Chair Powell’s remarks, even though it was not what he said but what he did not mention that undermined equity sentiment. Specifically, he did not push back against the recent surge in Treasury rates. Indeed, he took attention of the spike and would be concerned by a “disorderly” move, providing tacit approval for the run-up in longer dated yields. Consequently, the stock market was dragged lower once again thanks to rising rates and expectations for more of the same as the economy and inflation pick-up further.

    Headlines:

    • The Chair’s comments that he took attention of the spike and would be concerned by a “disorderly” move were not in the market’s narrative.
    • Fed Chair Powell’s perceived benign neglect of the surge in bond yields weighed on Treasuries and extended the recent selloff back toward the highs from February 25.
    • The US 10-year rate corrected slightly overnight but remains at 1.56%. The 10-year rate is currently down -5.3 bp at 0.079%, while yields jumped 6.0 bp and 7.5 bp in Australia and New Zealand respectively.
    • The tech-heavy USA100 over -3% lower intraday, with spill over to the broader indexes. However, the losses were pared in late trading with closing declines of -2.11% on the USA100, -1.34% on the USA500, and-1.11% on the USA30. JPN225 and ASX were still down -0.2% and -0.7% respectively at the close.
    • BoJ’s Kuroda sees no need to widen yield band. He said there is no need to widen the implicit band set for its long term yield target, while stressing the need to keep borrowing costs low to support the economy.
    • Oil prices jumped higher after the OPEC+ meeting decided to maintain current output levels. The USOIL is currently trading at USD 64.60 per barrel.
    • In Europe, key central bankers have also played down the rise in rates and signalled that the central bank won’t add additional measures next week that would reverse the rise in rates. Verbal intervention and a flexible use of PEPP purchases will likely be used to smooth an uptrend that most central bankers seem to feel is essentially justified, given the improved outlook for growth later in the year.
    • German manufacturing orders rose 1.4% m/m in January, more than anticipated
    Forex Market
    JPY – USD rallies again – USDJPY over 108.00
    EUR –dropped against a largely stronger Dollar- Currently at 1.1947
    GBP – at 1.3859
    AUD – dipped below 50-DMA again, at 0.7686
    CAD –steadied to 1.2660 after 1.2574 bottom
    GOLD – breaks the $1,700 – trades on 1695 now
    USOil – Oil rocketed following OPEC+ agreeing to no production increase and to keeping current levels for at least April. USOil at 64.60 up from 59.20 lows on Wednesday
    Bitcoin – returns to 47K

    Today: Attention will turn to the US February employment report, hourly earnings, unemployment rate, January trade report and consumer credit is due late in the session, seen rising $10.0 bln from $9.7 bln previously. Canadian Ivey Purchasing Index in the tap as well.

    Biggest mover – NZDUSD (+0.45% as of 07:30 GMT)

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  9. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 8th March 2021.

    Market Update – March 8 – Yields Sharply into Focus.

    [​IMG]

    Market News Today

    The $1.9t stimulus package passes Senate with few changes, final ratification could be this week. Strong NFP on Friday boosted Stocks (+1.95%), Yields (1.554%) and USD (91.90) into close. Yield differentials now coming sharply into focus. Houthi missile attack on the key Ras Tanura oil refinery spiked USOil prices 2.2% to within 4 cents of $68.00. Gold ($1700) remains weighed by rising yields and BTC pivots around 50k. China is aiming for 6%+ growth in 2021, (2.3% 2020), with manufacturing still 25% of GDP. Trade balance +119% vs Feb 2020. JPY data better than expected (Nikkei down 0.42%), but German Industrial Production missed significantly.

    European stock markets are broadly higher, with the DAX and FTSE 100 posting gains of 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. US futures and in particular the NASDAQ are underperforming as improved confidence in the US recovery is hastening the rotation out of tech stocks. Bonds meanwhile are under pressure again, with the German 10-year rate up 2.0 bp at -0.285%, the Treasury yield 2.8 bp at 1.594%.

    This week – ECB & BOC along with Inflation from US & China and GDP data from UK & Japan.

    Today – ECB asset purchase data, BoE’s Bailey.

    [​IMG]

    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.39%) Moved higher on open over 20 MA and 0.9300, now breached R1 at 0.9320. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 66 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower but appear to be turning higher, well above 0 line. Stochs. into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0067.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  10. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

    Joined:
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    0
    Date : 9th March 2021.

    Market Update – March 9 – Yields & USD lead others follow.

    [​IMG]

    Market News Today

    USD holds its bid, 10-yr Yields rally. Yellen calls the $1.9t stimulus package “very strong” for the US economy. Nasdaq closed down -2.4% (10% below Feb high, a technical correction) but DOW gained 0.97%. PBOC lifted sentiment saying money supply would be in line with GDP growth and they did not see need for stimulus for next 5 years. Nikkei +1%. Yields and USD slip. Overnight – mixed data from JPY, surprise jump for a UK retail sales tracker and the German Trade balance.

    The Dollar posted fresh highs before receding, with the USDIndex hitting a fresh 15-week peak at 92.50 and then declining to levels around 92.05. The greenback’s softening was concomitant with a dip in US Treasury yields, which was seen as the Asian session progressed. The 10-year US note yield ebbed below 1.560%, after peaking yesterday at levels above 1.610%.

    In other markets, base metals dropped, diverging from the rise in stock markets. Oil prices also turned lower. USOil ebbed to a four-day low at $64.34, extending a correction from yesterday’s 29-month high at $67.98. The already mentioned up-then-down action of the Dollar provided the only directional theme among the main currencies. EURUSD lifted from a new one-month low at 1.1836 to a rebound peak so far at 1.1888 while USDJPY fell from a nine-month peak at 109.24 to a low at 108.75. Cable rose from near one-month lows to a four-day high at 1.3885, and AUDUSD lifted out of a one-month low at 0.7621. USDCAD saw an ebb from highs, with the pair remaining well within recent range bounds. In the bigger view, we expect the reflation trade to hold up as the year progresses given the evident success of Covid vaccinations in countries that are more advanced in the vaccine rollout, which should allow for the continued reopening of major economies, and which in turn should maximise the impact of fiscal stimulus and an anticipated lockdown-savings-fuelled consumer spending spree. Given the outsized US fiscal stimulus and associated impact on yield differentials, this backdrop may not be the dollar bearish environment it was once thought it would be.

    Today – BoE’s Haldane, RBA’s Lowe, Fed’s Kaplan & US supply – $120b of 3-, 10- and 30-yr US Treasuries being auctioned this week – last week’s “woeful” 7-yr auction saw yields double from the last auction.

    [​IMG]

    Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPUSD (+0.42%) Big spike at 07:00. Moved higher following support at 1.3800 yesterday, now breached R1 at 1.3857, R2 at 1.3893. Faster MAs aligned and trending higher, RSI 60 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and attempting to break 0 line. Stochs into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0020, Daily ATR 0.0115.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     

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