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Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by HFblogNews, May 29, 2017.

  1. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 13th July 2021.

    Market Update – July 12 – A cautious start for equities.

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    IN THE SPOTLIGHT: WELLS FARGO, BANK OF AMERICA, CITIGROUP, BLACKROCK

    This week the key Q2 Earnings season kicks off in earnest, with many of the major US banks reporting and expected to massively beat consensus, something that could please the bulls. But will this be the case? And if yes, then what? Wall Street has remained in rally mode and at record highs, ahead of what is expected to be a strong Q2 earnings season. As the chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, Sam Stovall, told CNBC’s Trading Nation on Friday: “I think what we’re going to be seeing is the second-best year-on-year quarterly gain in the last 25 years, second only to what we saw in the fourth quarter of 2009, since USA500 earnings are expected to be almost 61% this quarter”.

    Q2 earnings are seen as key for setting the tone of company performances as the spread of the Delta Covid variant will likely continue, with countries like the Netherlands reporting an 800% increase in cases over the past week, hence fears that economic growth could plateau, and slowing vaccination rates globally keeping investors cautious over high valuations. Overall the US equity markets notched further all-time highs with a strong close yesterday as strong economic data keeps recovery hopes alive.

    The Financial sector has been a major beneficiary of the “reflation” trade since last year and the Stimulus Bill and the Infrastructure Bill, which also benefited and could continue benefiting the banking sector in particular. So far the financial sector posted 34.5% earnings growth in the first Quarter of 2021 while Q2 is projected an amazing 117% earnings per share growth for Financials in Q2, according to research firm FactSet. That’s the 3rd highest projection FactSet has on a sector basis. A key concern is a potential decline in “special purpose acquisition companies” (SPACs) activity during Q2 might also have hurt the sector.

    Hence following the JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs report today, Wednesday has Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock, Infosys, PNC Financial, and Delta Airlines.

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    The Bank of America (#BankofAmerica OR BOA) consensus recommendation is “Buy”, as revenues are expected to beat as earnings are likely to exceed according to the majority of the consensus recommendations from the Eikon Reuters terminal. According to Reuters Eikon Research, the report for the fiscal Quarter ending June 2021 is expected to experience a near quarter rally of its Earnings Per Share (EPS) compared to last year, at $0.77 from $0.37, which implies a mean change of 0.41% and a year-over-year growth of 107.9%. Zacks Investment Research predicts similar EPS, while the company’s revenue is seen depreciating slightly from a year ago to $21.83 billion, down by 2.16% on a yearly basis.

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    Please note that BOA, the nation’s second-largest bank, has surpassed earnings forecasts in the last two quarters due to strong growth in its sales & trading and investment banking businesses, regardless the company’s revenues have dropped since 2020 due to net interest income decrease. The net interest income, which contributes more than 50% of the total revenues, was down due to the interest rate headwinds and lower new loan issuance. Further, the same factors are likely to continue supporting solid growth for the bank’s sales, trading and investment banking for the rest of the year but the interest rates are likely to remain low on the resurgence of rising Covid-19 cases.

    In regards to Citigroup now, things are similar to BOA as the bank is expected to post a beat on Earning ESP but a slowdown on consumer banking revenues. Similar to Q1 2021, the factors that are anticipated to affect the financial report for Q2 are:

    • Low Consumer Banking Revenues: Lower credit card loans as credit card holders are now paying back their loans at faster rates based on abundant liquidity and government aid, resulting in delays or even preventing lending volumes.
    • Slip of Trading Revenue: After a jump in trading activity and underwriting deal volumes since 2020, management forecasted a decline in Q2 2021. Lower fixed-income revenues are anticipated to have been an undermining factor for bank’s earnings.
    • Slip of Investment Banking Revenue: On the one hand, more M&A deals implies rising advisor fees from Citigroup, something that is expected to be a strengthening factor. However on the flipside, a decline in investment banking revenues is a risk for the bank.
    • Net Interest Income Decline: another undermining factor for Revenue similar to BOA.
    • Expenses Rise: Q2 expenses will likely rise to $11.2 billion.
    • Asset Quality to Improve
    Hence Citigroup is expected to report adjusted earnings of $1.96, in comparison with the $0.50 EPS reported for the same quarter last year. The revenue is seen at $17.20 billion, according to Eikon group analysts estimates, nearly 11% lower than Q1 2021.

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    From a technical perspective, whatever the outcomes are, much is anticipated from the numbers of Bank of America and Citigroup, as both banks are expected to outperform the consensus estimates for earnings, even though revenues are likely to fall short of expectations. Both banks remain technically Bullish in the medium term, trading north of their respective 20- and 50-week EMAs, even though a strong pullback has been seen in June. Today #Citigroup is at the $69 area, stabilising the past 5 weeks above the 50-week EMA finding a support at the $65.80 level suggesting that the correction might run out of steam. #BankofAmerica is at $40.59, above the double bottom seen at $38.47 as positively configured momentum indicators suggest that the outlook remains positive.

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    Finally, Wells Fargo and Blackrock, which are the fourth and fifth largest US banks, are expected to slate strong Q2 earnings reports, after the first posted its first loss since the global financial crisis of 2008 and the latter has a solid history of beating earnings estimates while it is well seated to hold a positive trend in its Q2 report.

    Wells Fargo could post an EPS of $0.97 and revenues of $17.75 billion. The #Wells Fargo price sustains a move above the 20-week SMA for a 2nd week in a row, after the rebound from the $41 low. Momentum indicators and their positive to neutral configuration along with the sustained a move with a 1-year upward channel imply a positive medium term outlook for the stock price.

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    Blackrock on the other hand, in contrast with the other 3, has had a remarkably strong performance since March 2020 without a notable pullback on stock price in 2021, while it is currently trading at record highs. According to Eikon Reuters, the world’s largest asset manager is expected to report adjusted earnings of $9.36, in comparison with the $7.85 EPS reported for the same quarter last year. The revenue is seen at $4.605 billion, according to Eikon group analysts estimates, which is more than 25% growth since Q2 2020. Hence a beat of estimates could boost the stock to fresh all time highs.

    Nevertheless, the US bank stocks have enjoyed a strong rally in 2021, clearly seen from US major indices such as USA30 which is up 92% since the 2020 bottom and up 33%YTD, due to the continued boost from massive stimulus packages, positive vaccination rollout, and the accomodative Fed’s policy. Based on Refinitiv estimates, together, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan are anticipated to report profits of $24 billion in Q2 2021, up significantly from the $6 billion seen last year.
     
  2. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 14th July 2021.

    Market Update – July 14 – Central banks are gearing up!.

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    Q2 earnings got off to a lackluster start Tuesday. Hefty earnings beats from JPM & Goldman Sachs were overshadowed by concerns over revenues& as a lot of the strength was on easy comps.

    US: A much hotter than expected CPI print & very poorly bid 30-yr bond auction were a potent combination for a Treasuries selloff. The combo also left Wall Street heavy. June CPI surged 0.9% on both headline & core, more than double the estimate for the overall index & 3x the forecast for the ex-food & energy component. For the former it was the biggest jump since June 2008, while for the latter it tied for the largest since late 1981.

    Asia: Bonds across the Asia-Pacific region were under pressure though & New Zealand’s 10-yr rate spiked 7.3 bp to 1.73% after the RBNZ unexpectedly decided to end large scale asset purchases by July 23. Stock markets mostly struggled, though the ASX managed to lift 0.4%, despite extended virus restrictions in some parts. JPN225 is -0.3%. The NZX 50 is down -0.5%. UK CPI inflation unexpectedly jumped to 2.5% y/y from 2.1% y/y in the previous month. A strong round of numbers, even if PPI readings show a slight deceleration in price pressures. The official BoE line has been that inflation overshoots will be transitory, but after today’s round of higher than expected numbers, labour market data later in the week will be watched very carefully.

    Fed Chair Powell testimony preview: Chair Powell goes to Capitol Hill for his semi-annual Monetary Policy Report (aka Humphrey Hawkins) & his comments will be especially scrutinized after another hefty CPI jump. However, while he will likely indicate that price pressures have been above Fed expectations, we expect him to reiterate the price pressures should be “transitory” & largely a function of base effects & the supply/demand impacts from reopenings & supply chain constraints. He will also repeat that the FOMC is not yet ready to begin withdrawing accommodation as the labor market has yet to fully recover. And he won’t give a timeline on QE unwinding.

    FX markets: GER30 & UK100 are down -0.1% & -0.007% respectively, while US futures are still narrowly mixed, with the USA100 future outperforming. NZD rallied in the wake of the hawkish turn at the RBNZ. USD is steady to weaker, with USDJPY at 110.53. EUR & GBP lifted against a largely weaker USD, although EURUSD remains below 1.18 & Cable below 1.39. USOIL meanwhile is at $75.06 per barrel.

    Today – Data releases today focus on US June PPI, BoC Monetary Policy & Press Conference & the first day Testimony from Fed Chair Powell. The earnings calendar includes BOA, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and Blackrock.

    Central banks are likely to gradually reduce the extraordinary degree of stimulus later in the year, but monetary policy will remain accommodative for a long time to come which should see economies through virus setbacks.

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    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) NZDUSD (+1.20%). Kiwi spiked to 0.7030 following the RBNZ’s unexpected move. Momentum indicators are still positively configured with exception of Stochastics which flattened into the OB area implying a potential sideways move. Fast MAs aligned higher.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  3. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 15th July 2021.

    Market Update – July 15 -“Don’t worry about it”.


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    September 10-year Bund future rallied with Treasury futures overnight & in cash markets the US 10-yr rate corrected a further -1.3 bp to 1.33%. Υields also dropped in Australia & New Zealand, with the former outperforming despite a drop in the unemployment rate to just 4.9% – the lowest in 10 years. EGBs also ended higher yesterday after Fed Chairman Powell calmed nerves on the inflation front & managed to ease fears the Fed will move earlier than expected on tapering- Tapering is still “a ways off.”

    The BoC left rates unchanged, as expected, while cutting its weekly QE purchases by C$1.0 bln, also as expected. The BoC statement left forward guidance unchanged from the previous meeting, though did downgrade 2021 GDP modestly while upping growth expectations for 2022.

    BoE’s Bailey & ECB’s Schnabel were also out to calm nerves, with Bailey highlighting the central bank will need to assess the transitory factors that are driving headline rates at the moment, though comments from Ramsden sounded more cautious on inflation risks – no rush on rate decision.

    Asia stock markets traded mixed after today’s round of growth data out of China. China Q2 GDP growth slightly weaker than expected at 7.9%. UK ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted to 4.8% in the three months to May and pick up in employment fell short of expectations at just 25K.


    Earnings: BOA shares fell after revenue declined from a year earlier because of a 6% drop in net interest income due to lower interest rates.
    Citigroup beat analysts’ estimates for profit, thanks to a $1.1 billion boost from releasing reserves the bank had previously set aside for loan losses. Wells Fargo posted Q2 profit of $1.38 a share as revenue jumped 11% from a year earlier to $20.3 billion, soundly beating Wall Street’s expectations despite weak demand for loans. BlackRock’s assets under management jumped to a record $9.49 trillion in Q2 from $7.32 trillion a year earlier.


    FX markets: USD steady to weaker, with USDJPY at 109.74. EUR & GBP lifted against a weaker USD, though EURUSD is at 1.1846 & Cable below 1.3865. USOIL dips to $71.44 per barrel – the combination of a reported production agreement between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, allowing the Emirates to pump more oil in 2022, combined with an unexpected weekly rise in US fuel supplies, has weighed on prices. Gold topped at 1,832 (50% Fib).

    Today – Fed Chair Powell’s testimony day 2 and Jobless claims.

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    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) EURCAD (+0.27%). CAD headed lower, despite the taper move, in what appeared to be a case of sell the rumor, buy the news.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  4. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 16th July 2021.

    Market Update – July 16 – Stocks stalled.

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    Curve-flattening trades pressed longer dated Treasury rates lower again Thursday after Fed Chair Powell did not change his tune regarding the view on inflation; that it should be temporary, & that an accommodative stance is still necessary.

    The curve collapsed to 108 bps, having retreated from 116 bps early in the week. It was the narrowest since February . Elsewhere BoJ did the expected & kept policy settings unchanged for now, but cut back its growth forecast for this year. JPN225 share average dipped below the psychologically key 28,000 mark as tech shares tracked declines on Wall Street overnight, while a continued surge in coronavirus infections dented investor sentiment. Weakness in chip-related shares also helped bring down USA500 & USA100.

    European stock markets struggled yesterday, Gilts sold off & Bunds pared gains as BoE’s Saunders added to comments from Deputy Governor Ramsden suggesting asset purchases may have to end earlier than previously expected. At the same time, the Delta variant & concern over the fallout from recent devastating floods in Germany could also weigh on the GER30 today.

    Mixed earnings, uncertainties over inflation & Covid, along with current richly priced valuations prompted some profit taking.

    FX markets: EURUSD dropped to 1.1806, while GBPUSD eased to 1.3810. NZD up 0.6% at $0.7020 after consumer prices rose far faster than expected, bringing forward markets’ rate hike expectations to August. USOIL stayed under pressure drifting below $71.00 barrier. Gold on the other hand hit a 1-month high of $1,834.3, supported by a dovish Fed.

    Today – Eurozone May trade & June CPI. US releases include Retail Sales & Michigan Index.

    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:00 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.88%). NZD remains the biggest mover amongst majors in the Asia session, & so far, however the rally seems to have run out of steam as fast MAs flattened along with RSI at 55. MACD’s signal line remains negative while Stochastics gives mixed signals at OB area.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  5. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 19th July 2021.

    Sharp selloffs on European Open.


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    Wall Street losses persisted through the Friday session, with the major indices all ending lower. Stocks got a brief boost from the stronger US retail sales data, though the dive in consumer sentiment, including upped inflation concerns, took the wind out of the rally’s sails.

    Today, in the Asia session and on European open:

    • The 10-year Treasury yield was down and bonds were also supported, with Australia’s 10-year down -4.4 bp at 1.233%, as stocks were hit by growth concerns.
    • The September 10-year Bund future is up 42 ticks at 175.29, outperforming versus Treasury futures. GER30 and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.6% and -0.8% respectively.
    • Reuters – Japan kept the overall assessment of its economy unchanged for a second straight month in July, retaining the view that conditions remain severe due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
    • Tech stocks struggled. – China’s crackdown on Tech giants Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com and Pinduoduo extending low amid new anti-monopoly and data security rules in China.
    • Reports of issues with Japan’s supply chain have been noted, with suppliers in countries such as Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam falling behind on production due to Covid shutdowns.
    • Zoom Video Communications Inc ZM.O, the videoconferencing service that became a household name globally during the pandemic, plans to parlay some of the resulting rise in its share price into a $14.7 billion acquisition to secure growth.
    • Oil prices declined on oversupply worries – OPEC and its allies agreed to ease output restrictions and supply cuts, including Russia which agreed new production allocations and a gradual phasing out of supply cuts, that will increase supply by around 400K barrels.
    • Focus will remain on the Covid spread around the region with the Delta variant continuing to cause worries.

    FX markets: In FX markets the Yen was supported by safe haven demand, and USDJPY dropped back to 109.84, although the Dollar climbed against most other currencies. EURUSD is little changed at 1.1803, while Cable dropped to 1.3746. AUD hit its lowest level in 2021, at 0.7372. USOIL stayed at the $70.60-$71.60 barrier. Gold edged higher, lifted by a retreat in US Treasury yields and concerns that a surge in coronavirus cases could dampen global economic recovery, though an uptick in the Dollar limited the safe-haven metal’s appeal.

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    Today – The calendar is pretty empty to start the week, hence growth concerns are dominating and developments will add to expectations that the ECB will strengthen the dovish tone of the forward guidance at Thursday’s council meeting.

    Biggest mover @ (8:30 GMT) CADJPY (-0.66%). The Yen was supported by safe haven demand, while CAD dips on USOIL weakness. An aggressive selloff of CADJPY broke all Support levels for the day with next Support at 86 and 200-day SMA at 85.78.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  6. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 20th July 2021.

    Risk sensitive assets plummet on recovery fears!


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    Risk off trades continued to dominate the Asian part of the session, but there are signs of stabilisation.

    Stocks declined as fears that the rapid spread of the Delta variant will delay re-openings and force extended lockdowns in countries with lower vaccination rates continue to fuel risk aversion. Investors will be keeping a very close eye on virus developments, but speculation that market developments will delay central bank tapering plans should put a floor under markets that have corrected from very high levels.

    Today, in the Asia session and on European open:

    Bond markets continued to play catch up with the sharp rally in Treasuries yesterday. Australia’s 10-year rate is down -6.2 bp , New Zealand’s has corrected -7.8 bp and China’s 10-year bond is -1.5 bp richer.
    • Japan’s CPI rate nudged higher in June, with core lifting to 0.2%. Data are not expected to change the course of the BoJ.
    • Developer Evergrande slumped after local authorities halted some of its sales.
    • US futures are down and in cash markets the 10-year Treasury rate has lifted 1.1 bp to 1.200%. – Currently the USA100 has rebounded with 0.4% gains.
    • September 10-year Bund future is little changed. – GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.2% respectively.
    • German PPI inflation lifted to 8.5% y/y in June – remains mainly driven by developments in commodity prices.
    • RBA minutes: Strengthen rather than taper QE as stock markets continue to sell off.
    • In Australia, nearly half the country’s 25 million people are living under lockdowns to quell an outbreak of the Delta variant.
    • US yield curve continues to steepen. JPMorgan’s HuiP: “reflects reduced inflation expectations if reopening is delayed and potential downside risk to the economy, but that value and cyclical sectors should continue to outperform over the next 6-12 months given the ongoing recovery globally.”
    Today’s data calendar in Europe and the US remains pretty quiet, with US housing starts, while neither German PPI nor Eurozone current account numbers are likely to change the outlook much.



    FX markets: In FX markets the USD remained supported by safe haven bids and EURUSD dipped to 1.1773, while GBPUSD is at 1.3647 crossing the 200-day SMA. Safe-harbour currencies like the JPY and USD traded near multi-month highs against the riskier AUD, NZD and GBP. USDJPY is little changed at 109.35-109.60. USOIL prices stabilised at 66.50.

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    Key mover: USOIL – Oil prices stabilised on Tuesday after slumping around 7%. The aggressive selloff of USOIL was fueled by worries about future demand and after an OPEC+ agreement to increase supply. The contract for August, which expires later on today, was up 15% at $66.57 a barrel.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  7. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 22nd July 2021.

    Market Update – July 22 – USD cools as risk aversion slides.


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    Trading Leveraged Products is risky

    Market News Today – USD dipped from 3-mth highs, USDIndex down (from 93.18 to 92.80) as Equities bounce back, recovering all of Monday’s fall on the back of strong Earnings (+0.8% & VIX back to 20.00). Yields recovered to 1.28% (20yr auction filled at 1.89%). Virus concerns continue to weigh. OIL Inventories +2.4m vs -4.6m expected, USOil futures touched $70.00, Gold back under $1800. Overnight – JPY closed until Monday, shares in Asia struggled to follow US higher, AUD trade & Confidence data mixed. (50% of popn. remain in lockdown).

    European Open – DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.3% and 0.2% respectively, U.S. futures are also slightly higher, so the positive momentum that dominated yesterday’s session remains in place, albeit with a slightly more cautious tone to start the day. In FX markets EURUSD is little changed at 1.1793, Cable at 1.3719. Earnings reports helped to underpin stock market sentiment on Wednesday and company news will remain in focus today, but for the Eurozone the main item on the agenda is the ECB policy meeting.

    ECB Preview – The central bank is expected to keep overall settings unchanged, but Lagarde has hinted that the forward guidance will be tweaked following the change in the inflation target and markets are hoping for a commitment to ongoing support beyond the immediate crisis phase. So the meeting is now of more significance and LIVE….

    Today – The ECB policy announcement, US Weekly Claims & EZ consumer confidence and Earnings from Abbot Labs, Blackstone, AT&T, Intel, Snap & Twitter.

    [​IMG]

    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDCAD (+0.35%). Bounced from 13-mth low at 0.9216 yesterday to 0.9267 highs earlier. Breached 21EMA earlier, faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 53 and rising, MACD signal line & histogram rising but significantly below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0061.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer:
    This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  8. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 23rd July 2021.

    Market Update – July 23 – USD & Equities move higher.

    [​IMG]

    Market News Today – USD dipped following ECB & weak US data but has recovered as USDIndex eyes 93.00 again & a “Golden Cross”. EUR 1.1770, JPY 110.30, Cable 1.3750. Equities struggled but ended up, USA500 (+0.20%), Strong Earnings #TWTR. Yields held gains 1.265%. Virus concerns continue to weigh, US Republicans now encouraging vaccinations. USOil breached & broke $70.00, Gold back over $1800. Overnight – JPY closed until Monday, shares in Asia struggled to follow US higher, AUD PMI data at 14-mth lows (50% of popn. in lockdown) & UK Retail Sales data beat as restrictions continue to ease and football was supposed to come Home.

    ECB – Negative Rates Are Here to Stay – ECB tweaked its rate guidance yesterday which resulted in an even stronger signal that the bank expects this year’s inflation overshoot to be temporary. The marginally higher inflation target & refined hurdles for rate hikes have pushed an exit from negative rates even further into the future, but doesn’t necessarily clarify the outlook on asset purchases & PEPP. The focus on the forward guidance may actually signal a shift back from asset purchase targets to rates as the main signal for the ECB’s policy stance.

    European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is down -3 ticks, Treasury futures are slightly underperforming. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are up 0.3% and US futures are posting similar gains. The ECB’s affirmation of its ultra-accommodative policy stance and the strengthening of the guidance on rates should continue to keep sentiment underpinned. ECB’s Villeroy also stressed this morning that it was perfectly justified to stick with accommodative settings for now, but also indicated that the central bank will look at asset purchases again in September. For now though virus developments and the rapid spread of the Delta variant is likely to keep a lid on growth optimism.

    Today – Flash Eurozone, UK & US PMIs, CBR Rate Decision, Canadian Retail Sales. Earnings from Danske Bank, American Express and Honeywell.

    [​IMG]

    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.21%) 4th day of big move from lows of 0.6330 on Tuesday, to test 20-Day MA (0.6417) today. Breached 21EMA yesterday, faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 59 and rising, MACD signal line & histogram rising & significantly above 0 line. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0064.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  9. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

    Joined:
    May 2017
    Posts:
    1,519
    Likes Received:
    0
    Date : 26th July 2021.

    Market Update – July 26 – Chinese Regulators weigh on sentiment.

    [​IMG]

    Market News Today – USD dipped in early week trades (USDIndex 92.80 from over 93.00 on Friday) – Chinese & HK stock markets sank on more talk of regulation tightening. US equity markets traded at ATH’s again on Friday (USA500 +1%) on strong Earnings and expectations. Yields closed the week at 1.28. USD remains bid overall but softer this morning. Overnight – JPY CPI was a tick firmer, although Manu. PMI’s were weaker. Chinese PMI’s missed over the weekend and added to weaker Asian markets to start the big week ahead. Gold holds at 1807, from 1798 and USOil is down to 70.40 from 71.60.

    Week Ahead – Rather significant – We have the FED, US GDP and PCE. A massive week ahead for US stock markets too – one third (30%+) of the S&P500 report 2Q Earnings including TSLA (today) APPL, AMZN, FB, & Alphabet & MSFT…over 20% of companies have reported already and 88% have beat (much improved from Q1) expectations.

    European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is up 27 ticks at 176.08, Treasury futures are also moving higher, with the Ultra Bond outperforming, as stock market sentiment is hit by concern that the Delta variant will delay the recovery mounting worries over the impact of China’s clampdown on the tech sector. China and Hong Kong bourses sold off sharply overnight and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -0.5%, while a -0.5% decline in the Dow Jones is leading U.S. futures lower. In FX markets EURUSD is at 1.1779, USDJPY at 110.17 from 110.55 earlier and Cable at 1.3751.

    Today – German Ifo, BoE and US supply and earnings from Tesla, LockheedMartin, Hasbro and Logitech.

    [​IMG]

    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.53%) Big move lower for the key risk-off pair, on Chinese tightening and JPY data. Dived from 81.50, under 20 MA, Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 line and moving loer, RS 31 and moving lower testing OS zone, Stochs weak and already OS. H1 ATR 0.117, Daily ATR 0.842.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  10. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

    Joined:
    May 2017
    Posts:
    1,519
    Likes Received:
    0
    Date : 23rd July 2021.

    Market Update – July 23 – USD & Equities move higher.


    [​IMG]



    Market News Today – USD dipped following ECB & weak US data but has recovered as USDIndex eyes 93.00 again & a “Golden Cross”. EUR 1.1770, JPY 110.30, Cable 1.3750. Equities struggled but ended up, USA500 (+0.20%), Strong Earnings #TWTR. Yields held gains 1.265%. Virus concerns continue to weigh, US Republicans now encouraging vaccinations. USOil breached & broke $70.00, Gold back over $1800. Overnight – JPY closed until Monday, shares in Asia struggled to follow US higher, AUD PMI data at 14-mth lows (50% of popn. in lockdown) & UK Retail Sales data beat as restrictions continue to ease and football was supposed to come Home.

    ECB – Negative Rates Are Here to Stay – ECB tweaked its rate guidance yesterday which resulted in an even stronger signal that the bank expects this year’s inflation overshoot to be temporary. The marginally higher inflation target & refined hurdles for rate hikes have pushed an exit from negative rates even further into the future, but doesn’t necessarily clarify the outlook on asset purchases & PEPP. The focus on the forward guidance may actually signal a shift back from asset purchase targets to rates as the main signal for the ECB’s policy stance.

    European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is down -3 ticks, Treasury futures are slightly underperforming. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are up 0.3% and US futures are posting similar gains. The ECB’s affirmation of its ultra-accommodative policy stance and the strengthening of the guidance on rates should continue to keep sentiment underpinned. ECB’s Villeroy also stressed this morning that it was perfectly justified to stick with accommodative settings for now, but also indicated that the central bank will look at asset purchases again in September. For now though virus developments and the rapid spread of the Delta variant is likely to keep a lid on growth optimism.

    Today – Flash Eurozone, UK & US PMIs, CBR Rate Decision, Canadian Retail Sales. Earnings from Danske Bank, American Express and Honeywell.

    [​IMG]


    Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.21%) 4th day of big move from lows of 0.6330 on Tuesday, to test 20-Day MA (0.6417) today. Breached 21EMA yesterday, faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 59 and rising, MACD signal line & histogram rising & significantly above 0 line. H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0064.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


    Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.


    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HotForex


    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     

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