Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

EUR/USD regains upside position, dollar left with one trump card

Markets prefer to shoot first and then think later. Otherwise, they would miss the moment. When ECB President Christine Lagarde said that central banks should pursue policies that would anchor inflation expectations, investors began to buy the euro with renewed vigor, pushing EURUSD quotes to the highest levels since June. In reality, however, Lagarde's phrase does not guarantee that the deposit rate will rise by 75 bps in December. No matter how this shot turned out to be a blank.

The logic of investors selling the U.S. dollar is clear: inflation is slowing and will continue to do so, which means the Fed does not need to take giant steps down the road of tightening monetary policy. The factor of an aggressive federal funds rate hike, along with U.S. exceptionalism and high demand for safe haven assets, was the key driver of the EURUSD rally. If the ECB starts to catch up with the Fed, the dollar has one less trump card to play.

Lately, the macrostatistics of the euro area has been pleasantly surprising, which is reflected in the growth of the index of economic surprises. It is quite possible that the currency bloc will either manage to avoid recession or the recession will be quick and insignificant. It looks like the U.S. is not as far from the eurozone as previously thought. A change in investors' outlook on the matter has given EURUSD a helping hand.

Dynamics of Economic Surprise Indices

In fact, the U.S. dollar has only one trump card left—its status as a safe-haven asset, and even that fails. When the yield of Treasury bonds grew, the competitors of the grenback in the face of gold, yen and franc were in disgrace. However, the decline in interest rates on debt has turned them from outsiders into favorites. As a global recession approaches, investors will no longer park their money in North America, but will prefer Japan, Switzerland, or a perpetual asset.

Jerome Powell had a chance to turn things around. Had he voiced his dissatisfaction with financial conditions, the EURUSD pair would hardly have been able to soar above 1.05. The weakening of the latter makes it difficult for the Fed to fight inflation, but the central bank also seems to believe that the PCE will continue to slow.

Dynamics of financial conditions in the USA

Unlike Lagarde, who believes that the global economy is entering an era of volatile inflation. That is why central banks should anchor inflation expectations at the target level of 2%. Households must trust that their work will lead to price stability. That's the only way to win.

Volatile inflation makes it doubtful that EURUSD will continue to go further upward in the same way as in October and early December. Most likely, it will be stormy.

In technical terms, the euro approached the target by 161.8% by the Crab pattern within an arm's length. It is located near the $1.061 mark. A rebound may follow from it or from the 1.057 pivot point, which will allow to partially take profits on the longs formed above 1.0395. Subsequently, we use pullbacks to buy EURUSD.

 

Will the dollar still be at war? USD/JPY forecast for 2023

The USD/JPY pair plummeted in November, which made many question its bullish potential. However, the dollar's recent growth convinces investors otherwise. So what to expect from the major?

The dollar is winning so far
The greenback rose 0.3% against its major peers on Wednesday night. The dollar was supported by rising concerns about the global recession.

The day before, three leading U.S. banks - J.P. Morgan, Goldman Sachs and The Bank of America - said they expect a slowdown in global economic growth next year, as rising inflation is threatening consumer demand.

The pessimistic outlook reinforced the anti-risk sentiment that prevailed for the third consecutive session. The MSCI All-Country World Index, which tracks stock market performance in 48 countries, fell 1.26%, down from a three-month high last week.

The loss of appetite for equities and increased demand for the dollar was also triggered by strong US macrodata. Recall that earlier this week the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that economic activity in the services sector grew from 54.4 to 56.5 in November.

The data followed Friday's report from the U.S. labor market, which also pleased dollar bulls. The nation's NonFarm Payroll employment rose more than forecast last month.

The portion of optimistic data greatly strengthened the market's hawkish expectations for further monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

Currently, most traders expect the U.S. central bank to raise the rate by 50 bps next week. The probability of an increase by 75 bps is only 5%.

However, talk of a higher peak in U.S. interest rates has returned to the market. Many investors believe the rate could reach 5.25% in 2023, whereas now it is in the 3.75-4% range.

The hope that the Fed will continue to raise rates next year and keep them high for a long time acts as a very powerful trigger for the dollar at this point. This factor particularly helps the greenback against the yen.

After USD/JPY plummeted to a 3-month low of 133.64 last week, it has now gained 3% and has managed to stay above 137.

There aren't many new factors that can strongly influence the asset's dynamics now. In the coming days, investors will focus on two events: the US consumer price index for November and next week's Fed meeting.

If investors see more robust inflation and hear hints of a higher peak in U.S. interest rates from U.S. officials, it will likely trigger a new wave of growth in the USD/JPY pair.

What's in store for the USD/JPY next year?
In November, the U.S. currency posted its worst monthly performance in 14 years against the yen. It fell by more than 7% due to fears that the US central bank is going to slow the pace of rate hikes.

However, most currency strategists, recently surveyed by Reuters, believe that in the next few months, USD/JPY will be able to hold its annual growth, which amounted to 20%.

The growing threat of recession in the U.S. and other countries should provide support to the dollar. In the backdrop of risk aversion, the greenback will once again feel a surge of strength, which will help it recover its recent losses on all fronts, even against the yen.

"For now, the forces that have supported the USD this year remain valid, despite the recent correction lower. Other currencies do not look as attractive yet," said Athanasios Vamvakidis, head of G10 FX strategy at Bank of America.

In the BofA baseline, the U.S. dollar will remain strong early next year and will only start a more sustained downward path after the Fed pauses.

Despite the dollar's recent pullback, major currencies are not expected to recoup their 2022 losses against the USD until at least late 2023, the survey showed.

Analysts estimate that the Japanese yen, down nearly 20% for the year and currently trading around 136.50 per dollar, was expected to change hands around 139.17, 136.17 and 132.67 per dollar over the next three, six and 12 months respectively.

 

EUR/USD. The Fed to set the stage for longer drop in USD in 2023

The euro seems to leave its lows behind. What does the EU currency await next year?

In 2022, the energy crisis affected the EUR/USD pair significantly. It triggered the strongest collapse of the European currency. According to analysts, the peak of fears about the energy crisis in the eurozone has passed. There are reasons for optimism now.

"Outside of an unseasonably harsh winter, the energy situation in Europe looks manageable given the securing of alternative energy supplies and double-digit energy demand erosion. The drawdown of critical stocks is already progressing better than feared," NatWest reported.

The key factor for the euro/dollar pair exchange rate should continue to be seen primarily through the lens of the balance of payments and terms of trade shift driven by energy prices.

The trade deficit has worsened this year. The cost of energy imports skyrocketed after Russia cut gas exports to the region. As a result, the region's current account became deficit for the first time in years.

NatWest economists expect the euro area's new trade deficit to be counterbalanced by positive net capital flows.

"There is potential for earnings and holdings to be repatriated if the USD strengthens further," the experts noted.

However, winter has just started and it is too early to make any conclusions. If temperatures in Europe fall below critical levels, investors may focus on the supply problem again.

In December, a sharp cold snap is expected in the region, which could lead to a noticeable increase in consumption.

"The winter may turn out to be colder than average, but it's impossible to have that as a base case. Yet valuations appear to include an unrealistically high probability of such a risk case," NatWest added.

It is unlikely that cyclical lows in the EUR/USD pair will be revised next year. Its decline should also be limited to a rebalancing of central bank reserves. The rebalancing should occur to the detriment of the greenback and to the benefit of currencies such as the euro.

This could mean that market players will have to sell USD to buy other currencies in their reserves every time the US currency rallies.

The downtrend for the dollar is inevitable, it is a question of timing. In the coming months, its exchange rate is expected to fall as the peak of the Fed's rate hikes is reached.

NatWest's forecasts for the euro/dollar pair are relatively contained. At the end of the first quarter, the quote should remain below 1.0500, and it should grow up to 1.0600 by the end of the second quarter. At the end of the third quarter, it is projected to rise to 1.0700 and 1.0800 by year-end.

Short-term outlook

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair attempted to stabilize above 1.0500. The technical picture suggests that buyers maintain control over the market in the short term.

On Thursday, markets expect the weekly US labor market data. Traders are likely to ignore this report. This means that the EUR/USD pair's direction will be driven by the market sentiment with regard to risk.

The growth of the major US indices will hinder the upward trend of the US dollar, which will help the EUR/USD pair to rise. A negative shift in sentiment will have the opposite effect on the quote.

The list of events for the euro includes a speech by ECB head Christine Lagarde at a virtual conference. However, we should not expect any important statements on the prospects of rates, as the ECB is in silent mode ahead of next week's monetary policy meeting.

Thus, risk appetite will have a huge importance for the short-term outlook.

The intermediate resistance level is at 1.0540, further - 1.0580, and 1.0600. The bearish scenario should be considered after the price breaks through 1.0500. Following this scenario, the euro may fall to the area of 1.0460 and 1.0430.

Bulls need to protect the level of 1.0450 to prevent the bearish scenario.

Since no fundamentally important events are expected in the short term, investors are again focused on recession risks. This now helps keep the greenback from falling.

On Thursday, the US dollar index fixed above 105.00, continuing to rise this week and benefiting from risk aversion in the market. Support was also provided by speculation that the Fed will continue to raise rates and hold them higher longer after the release of unexpectedly strong US employment, services, and manufacturing data.

Now traders are waiting for data on CPI in the US to be released next week, as well as the Fed meeting, where a more moderate rate hike of 50 bps is expected.

In general, the US dollar looks oversold, it has experienced its strongest monthly drop since 2009. A correction is possible in the coming weeks. However, it will resume its decline next year. Prerequisites for a longer fall in the exchange rate may be created by the Fed.

 

Weekly forecast for EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, and GOLD from December 12 (simplified wave analysis)

EUR/USD

Analysis:

The September 26 incomplete wave algorithm determines the short-term trend of the major European currencies. The movement's overall level has now surpassed the D1 scale. After its breakout, the intermediate resistance became support. The quotes have been forming an imperfect interim correction over the past week.

Forecast:

The general sideways trend of euro price fluctuations is anticipated to continue in the early days of this week. Its second half is more likely to see an increase in volatility, a reversal, and a continuation of the price rise.

Potential zones for reversals

Resistance:

- 1.0760/1.0810

Support:

- 1.0450/1.0400

Recommendations:

Sales: are potentially unprofitable and have limited potential.

Purchases: Your vehicles may be suggested for trading transactions once the corresponding signals for those vehicles appear in the support zone.

USD/JPY

Analysis:

The imperfect algorithm of the descending stretched plane of the major pair of the Japanese yen determines the primary direction of intraday trends. The wave has reached its peak. The price breached a strong support level that had previously served as resistance.

Forecast:

The price of the pair anticipate mainly moving "sideways" along the predicted resistance over the coming few days. You can anticipate a reversal and a continuation of the bearish course closer to the weekend. The calculated support represents the lower bound of the expected weekly entry of the pair.

Potential zones for reversals

Resistance:

- 137.50/138.00

Support:

- 133.60/133.10

Recommendations:

Purchases may be made during different sessions. It is advised to purchase a fractional lot due to the low potential.

Sales: this will only be important once your vehicle's corresponding reversing signals appear in the resistance zone area.

GBP/JPY

Analysis:

Since the end of September, the waves on the pair's chart between the British pound and the Japanese yen have been descending. The wave structure is still undergoing correction as a horizontal plane forms. There aren't any completion signals at the time of analysis.

Forecast:

The general lateral mood of the pair's fluctuations is anticipated to persist this week. When there is likely pressure on the resistance zone, you can watch for a change in course. Most likely, the decline stops at the calculated support.

Potential zones for reversals

Resistance:

- 168.60/169.10

Support:

- 164.00/163.50

Recommendations:

Small-lot purchases are possible during a single day. Lowering the trading lot is safer.

Sales: are available following the occurrence of verified reversal signals in the vicinity of the resistance zone.

USD/CAD

Analysis:

The Canadian dollar chart's most recent wave structure, which is useful for forecasting and trading, is directed downward and has been decrementing since September 26. In its structure, the middle part (B) is formed. After it is finished, part (C) will come next, bringing the wave's overall wave scale to the level of the reversal.

Forecast:

The upward movement is anticipated to continue at the start of this week, up to the limits of the calculated resistance. When a reversal forms and the downward course resumes, you can wait for it to happen.

Potential zones for reversals

Resistance:

- 1.3740/1.3790

Support:

- 1.3190/1.3140

Recommendations:

Purchases: are highly risky and could end up being unprofitable.

After the emergence of reversal signals in the vicinity of the resistance zone, sales may be advised.

NZD/USD

Short analysis

Since the end of September, an upward trend has been forming on the chart of the major New Zealand dollar pair. The price has reached a strong potential reversal zone over a broad timeframe. The wave structure's analysis suggests that quotations could increase to their maximum level.

Forecast for the coming week:

The likelihood of a sideways flat at the start of the upcoming week is very high. The price could move downward, but only as far as the support boundaries allow. The second half of the week should see the most activity and the start of price growth again.

Potential zones for reversals

Resistance:

- 0.6500/0.6550

Support:

- 0.6350/0.6300

Recommendations

Sales in the vicinity of the resistance zone should only be made once confirmed reversal signals have appeared.

Purchases: advised by a cut-down quantity from the support zone. The resistance zone restricts the potential.

GOLD

Analysis:

A downward wave has been driving the trend in the gold market since March of this year. Gold prices have been correcting over the previous two months, forming the middle of the wave. The price is close to a significant resistance area at the time of analysis. The ascending section's structure needs to be completed.

Forecast:

The upward movement vector is anticipated to carry on this coming week until the resistance zone rise is fully completed. A brief decline in the support area is not ruled out over the next few days.

Potential zones for reversals

Resistance:

- 1830.0/1845.0

Support:

- 1785.0/1770.0

Recommendations:

There won't be any restrictions on sales in the upcoming days.

Purchases: Within the parameters of individual trading sessions, fractional lots may be purchased from the support zone.

Reasons: Each wave has three components in a simplified wave analysis (UVA). The final, incomplete wave is examined at each TF. The dotted line depicts the predicted movements.

Be aware that the wave algorithm needs to account for the instruments' temporal movement length!

 

USD/JPY badly hurt by inflation, waiting for a counter shot from the Fed chair

Yesterday was a black Tuesday for the dollar. A cooler than expected US inflation report sent the greenback into free-fall in all directions. The biggest losses were sustained by USD/JPY.

Just like last month, U.S. inflation gave traders a shocking surprise. The consumer price index increased by only 7.1% from a year ago. That was less than economists' preliminary estimate of 7.3% and the previous value of 7.7%.

The so-called core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also turned out to be softer. It rose 6% on an annual basis against a forecast of 6.1% and an increase of 6.3% in October.

The significant reduction in inflationary pressures eased the market's hawkish expectations about the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy.

Following this data, the dollar collapsed on all fronts. Yesterday, the DXY index plummeted about 0.9% to 104.02.

The USD/JPY pair showed the worst dynamics, as the yen jumped, boosted by a rally in Treasuries. US bond yields sank with the US 10-year falling from 3.60% to 3.43%.

In this backdrop, the major collapsed by more than 250 points, or 1.5%. Tuesday's low was the lowest of the week at 134.67.

Such a sharp decline in USD/JPY significantly damaged the outlook for the dollar. The price is back under the area of the 200-day Simple Moving Average, which indicates a clear technical advantage of the bears.

A break under 134.60 would expose the next support around 134.10. Below attention would turn to the monthly low at133.60.

According to analysts at Rabobank, by the end of the week, the USD/JPY risks falling even lower, if the bears stay the course. The downtrend may get support from today's Fed monetary policy meeting.

If the Fed's stance turns out to be more dovish, there is a high probability that the USD/JPY pair will test the level of 130.00 even before the weekend. It has not been uncommon for the yen to fly 500 pips in a week, experts said.

Eyes now turn to the Fed meeting with investors particularly interested in the press-conference of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Investors have already fully taken into account the possible slowdown in rate hikes in the U.S. Now most market participants expect that the rate will be raised not by 75 bps, but only by half a percentage point.

If the forecast comes true, it probably won't put much pressure on the dollar. What could really bring down the U.S. currency is the Fed's hint at lower interest rates.

In light of the latest U.S. inflation data, traders have revised their forecast for peak interest rates downward.

At this point, the rate is expected to rise to 4.8% next year, after which the U.S. central bank will wind down its anti-inflation campaign.

The lower end rates also suggest a less drastic tightening. Many traders are now inclined to expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 bps in February and March.

Such a scenario is extremely unfavorable for USD/JPY, which rose to 30-year highs this year due to a strong interest rate differential between the Fed and the Bank of Japan.

Now that there is hope for a less aggressive rate of the U.S. central bank, the yen might regain its lost ground.

However, let's not bury the dollar just yet. Its fate is now completely in the hands of Powell. Many analysts believe that Powell will try to convince investors that the current slowdown does not mean a dovish pivot.

Most likely, the Fed chief's main argument for further tightening will be the fact that inflation is still very high. It is now running three times higher than the central bank's target level.

Earlier, Powell repeatedly stressed that officials won't prematurely end their assault against inflation until the consumer price index returns to 2%.

If he succeeds in strengthening the hawkish expectations of the market, the dollar may gain support and consolidate in tandem with the yen in the short term.

 

EUR likely to recover

This week, the euro has been extremely volatile. After a sharp rise amid the weakening of the US dollar, it rolled back again. However, there is still a chance for recovery.

On Thursday morning, the European currency noticeably declined against the US dollar. Traders are now looking forward to the ECB meeting. The central bank will announce its rate decision as well as provide comments on the likelihood of a recession. Analysts believe that the euro could take advantage of the situation and resume an upward movement. Currently, the EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.0655, trying to reach new highs.

The euro has a high upside potential because the greenback is climbing solely thanks to the Fed's hawkish rhetoric. However, this bullish momentum may weaken at any moment. According to Credit Suisse, by the end of 2022, the EUR/USD pair is projected to test the May high of 1.0800.

As the New Year and Christmas holidays are approaching, many analysts have once again brought up the topic of the parity level. Opinions are polarized. Many FX strategists do not expect the pair to retreat to this level, while others believe that the odds are extremely high. Economists at Rabobank reckon that the EUR/USD pair is likely to reach parity in 2023.

Now, speculators are digesting the results of the Fed meeting. The central bank raised the interest rate by 50 basis points to 4.25%-4.5% on an annual basis. The fed funds rate is expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% next year. Fed officials confirmed that they would stick to further tightening to tame inflation.

The so-called dot plots show that Fed policymakers have a median forecast of 5.1% for the fed funds rate at the end of 2023. The watchdog also said it would not plan to cut the key rate over the next year. The Fed also expects its rate to come down by the end of 2024 to 4.1% and to 3.1% by the end of 2025.

Apart from that, the Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet. It announced this move in May of this year and started to trim its balance sheet in June. Currently, the Fed's assets stand at $8.6 trillion.

Now, the central bank's main priority is to cap inflation, pushing it to the 2% target. Inflation is still high although it is gradually decreasing. The Fed sees inflation risks 'weighted to the upside'. For this reason, it will stick to a hawkish stance until inflation declines to the target level.

Later, the ECB will announce its rate decision. According to preliminary forecasts, the ECB is projected to hike the key rate by 50 basis points, taking it to 2.5%. Earlier, the ECB raised the rate by 75 basis points. In addition, it will also unveil its macroeconomic projections.

Analysts at Credit Suisse contemplate that a 50 basis point rate hike could adversely affect the euro. However, it will hardly undermine the bullish trend. It might occur only if Christine Lagarde provides rather dovish comments on the future plans for monetary policy and the final range for the key rate. Such a scenario looks unlikely, Credit Suisse pointed out. However, persistently high inflation and rising wages increase the chance of a 75 basis point rate hike. If so, the euro will definitely rise.

 

European stocks lower on New Year's Eve trading

On the last trading day of 2022, the leading stock indices of Western Europe were balancing in the red zone after a strong growth the day before. Those that were sharply trading lower were stocks in the consumer, utilities and health care sectors.

In addition, the volume of trading on European stock exchanges on Friday was lower compared to the previous days of the week in the run-up to the New Year. The stock markets of England and Germany had a shortened session, and on Monday trading floors will be closed due to the New Year celebration.

At the time of writing, the pan-European Stoxx 600 fell by 0.5% - to 428.21 points.

Earlier, Bloomberg, the leading American provider of financial information, reported that the STOXX Europe 600 indicator ended the current year with a drop of more than 12%. This will be the sharpest decline for European equities since 2018, and its main reasons are the negative consequences of the situation in Ukraine, the global energy crisis, as well as the permanent acceleration of inflation and decisive actions of the world central banks to combat it.

French CAC 40 fell by 0.71%, German DAX dropped by 0.68% and British FTSE 100 - by 0.21%. At the same time, since the beginning of the current year, CAC 40 fell by 8.7%, DAX - by 11.9% and FTSE 100 increased by 1.4%.

Leaders of the fall
The share price of the German energy company Uniper SE plummeted by 4.3%.

German biopharmaceutical company MorphoSys AG fell by 3.8%.

The share price of the Swiss chain of pharmacies Zur Rose Group AG fell by 2.9%.

British oil giant Pantheon Resources PLC collapsed by 43.4% after the company's pretax loss for fiscal 2022 almost doubled.

Market Sentiment
On Friday, European investors continued to analyze news about easing of coronavirus restrictions in China. The Chinese government has announced that the country will drop its Covid-19 quarantine requirement for passengers arriving from abroad starting January 8. At the same time, a negative test for coronavirus will be required to enter the state.

In addition, Beijing authorities reduced the level of surveillance of the coronavirus, rejecting the legal basis for the introduction of enhanced infection control measures.

In response to this move by Chinese authorities, some states have tightened requirements for visitors from the PRC. The United States, for example, is introducing mandatory testing for people arriving by air from China as of Jan. 5.

Traders around the world have recently been seriously concerned about China's "zero-Covid" policy, as new and existing restrictive measures in China have had a negative impact on the country's economic activity.

At the end of November, mass protests erupted in Shanghai against China's stringent Covid restrictions. The police dispersed protesters with gas canisters.

After that, markets began to hope that mass protests in Chinese cities would force local authorities to loosen regional restrictions. Fresh news from China sent a welcome positive signal that the world's second-largest economy could return to robust growth.

On Friday, European investors were also analyzing data for the countries of the region. Thus, according to new data from the Nationwide Building Society, UK property prices rose 2.8% year-on-year in December against November's 4.4%.

Meanwhile, Spain's statistical office INE reported the country's annual inflation rate fell to 5.8% in December of 2022, the lowest since November 2021. Thus, in the outgoing month consumer prices rose by 5.6% against the November increase of 6.7%. At the same time, analysts had forecasted inflation at 6.5%.

Trading results the day before
On Thursday, the leading stock indices of Western Europe closed in the green zone. However, at the beginning of the trading session, the market was steadily pessimistic, caused by investors' concerns about the permanent acceleration of inflation and tight monetary policy of the world central banks.

As a result, the pan-European Stoxx 600 rose by 0.68% - to 430.35 points.

The French CAC 40 gained 0.97%, the German DAX gained 1.05% and the British FTSE 100 gained 0.21%.

Those that were sharply trading lower were stocks in oil and gas and consumer companies.

The share price of European oil corporations British Petroleum and Shell dropped by 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively. Companies were under pressure due to the sharp fall in world prices for crude oil (by more than 1%).

The share price of key consumer companies - British Unilever and British American Tobacco - fell by 0.6%.

Swiss drugstore chain Zur Rose Group AG grew by 5.2%.

The share price of British online retailer THG Plc increased by 3.2%.

European airlines easyJet PLC, Wizz Air Holdings Plc and Deutsche Lufthansa AG fell by more than 2%.

German online retailer of shoes, fashion and beauty Zalando SE dropped 1%.

The share price of the German truck manufacturer Daimler Truck Holding AG decreased by 0.8%.

Adidas AG, a German manufacturer of clothing, footwear and accessories, decreased by 0.6%.

The share price of Evraz Plc, a British metals and mining company, plummeted by 12.6%.

British company Ocado Group Plc, which licenses grocery technology, sank by 1.5%.

TThe share price of German energy company Uniper SE soared by 10.9%.

German air carrier Deutsche Lufthansa AG dropped by 3.3%.

An important factor supporting the stock market in Europe on Thursday was a strong performance of the U.S. stock exchanges. On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.5%, the S&P 500 soared 1.75% and the NASDAQ Composite gained 2.59%.

 

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 09/01/2023

To put it mildly, the labor market data in the United States was fantastic. Especially when you look at the unemployment rate, which fell from 3.6% to 3.5%. Especially since the previous data was revised up from 3.7%. And it was projected to remain unchanged. In addition, 223,000 new jobs were created outside of agriculture. That's certainly not much more than the forecast of 220,000, but it's still a bit more to keep the unemployment rate stable. In other words, there's all the makings for further job growth. Although unemployment continues to be at record lows. But the interesting thing is that the dollar has been getting cheaper. It's all about the incredibly good macro data. Oddly enough, they show a clear overheating of the labor market. Especially since the United States is actively pursuing a policy to lure industrial production to its territory.

And the question arises - where will companies get workers for all these companies with such a high level of employment? And in general, an overheated labor market can lead to a sudden and steep rise in unemployment and with it a catastrophic drop in investment. Not to mention losses for the companies themselves. After all, companies invest in business expansion and job creation, and when they can't find employees then the investment doesn't pay off. So companies have to write off losses and cut costs to at least compensate for the negative consequences. This prospect is the reason why the dollar is weakening.

The unemployment rate (United States):

Nevertheless, this situation creates prospects for the dollar's growth in the long term. The fact is that the monetary authorities have only one tool to fight overheating of the labor market - an increase in interest rates. In other words, although the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of rate hikes, there is no question of its reduction in the near future. Most likely, the cycle of rising interest rates in the United States will continue through 2023. While the European Central Bank is likely to begin to gradually reduce its rate as early as the middle of this year.

The pound appreciated by more than 250 points against the US dollar on Friday. As a result, it won back all the decline since the beginning of the month, and the quote was above 1.2100. It is worth noting that we have a sell-off in dollar positions across the Forex market.

The H4 RSI has crossed the middle line of 50 upwards. This indicates a high demand for long positions on the pound.

Moving averages on the H4 Alligator have changed direction from downward to upwards. This is a signal to buy.

Outlook

In this situation, the upward move may persist due to the speculative sentiment of traders. I expect a further increase in long positions once the price stays above 1.2150 on the four-hour chart.

Take note that such rapid price changes often lead to excessive trading positions. For this reason, a technical pullback should not be ruled out.

Based on complex indicator analysis, there is a buy signal for short-term and intraday trading because of the upward movement.

 

EUR/USD and GBP/USD trading plan for beginners on January 10, 2023

Details of the economic calendar on January 9
The data on unemployment in the EU did not affect the market in any way, as figures remained at the same level.

The eurozone unemployment rate remains at 6.5%, coinciding with the estimates.

Analysis of trading charts from January 9
The EURUSD currency pair reached 1.0760 during the inertial movement from the 1.0500 support level. As a result, the local high of the upward trend from October last year was updated.

During the rapid inertial course, the GBP/USD rose to the value of 1.2200, despite the fact that a few trading days ago, the quote was around the 1.1850 mark. The overbought condition is obvious, but speculators ignore this technical signal.

Economic calendar for January 10
No important statistical data are scheduled to be published today.

For this reason, investors and traders will monitor the incoming information flow. At 14:00 UTC, the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled.

EUR/USD trading plan for January 10
In this situation, the inertial move still takes place in the market, where speculators ignore technical signals about the overbought euro. Updating the local high of the previous day may bring the price closer to the level of 1.0800. As for the corrective movement, this scenario will be considered by traders in case the price declines below 1.0700.

GBP/USD trading plan for January 10
In this situation, there is a slight pullback, during which the quote returned to the level of 1.2150, while the upward mood is still maintained among traders. For this reason, the return of the price above the value of 1.2200 may restart the inertial move.

At the same time, keeping the price below 1.2130 in a four-hour period may be the first technical signal for the formation of a full-size correction in the direction of the 1.2000 psychological level.

What's on the charts
The candlestick chart type is white and black graphic rectangles with lines above and below. With a detailed analysis of each individual candle, you can see its characteristics relative to a particular time frame: opening price, closing price, intraday high and low.

Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a price may stop or reverse its trajectory. In the market, these levels are called support and resistance.

Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price reversed in history. This color highlighting indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the asset's price in the future.

The up/down arrows are landmarks of the possible price direction in the future.

 

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 11/01/2023

In just a couple of days, the pound gained almost 350 points, and a local correction was justified. However, despite a completely empty macroeconomic calendar, which usually promotes all sorts of bounces, the British currency lost only 50 points. And it proves that investors don't really believe in the dollar's growth potential right now. At least, in the short-term perspective. Moving forward, I don't think the dollar is going to strengthen. Most likely, the market will continue to stand still. And it's been staying in the same place since the middle of yesterday. In fact, the macroeconomic calendar is also absolutely empty today. The market obviously needs a good reason for it to move in any direction. The pound can't grow because it's overbought, and there's no particular reason for it to fall.

The pair's upward momentum has slowed down around 1.2200. As a result, there was a pullback of about 90 pips, which is considered as a process of regrouping trading forces.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator is moving in the upper area of 50/70, which reflects traders' interest in long positions on the euro.

On the four-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs are headed upwards, which corresponds to the upward cycle.

Outlook

The current pullback has smoothly turned into stagnation along 1.2150, which may support new price surges. Using technical analysis, I expect long positions on the pound to grow even more once the price stays above 1.2200. In this case, the subsequent upward movement will resume.

As for the bearish scenario within the corrective move, the price should stay below 1.2130 over the four-hour period.

Based on complex indicator analysis, there is a variable signal for short-term and intraday trading due to a flat. In the medium term, there is still a buy signal.