Hfmarkets (hfm.com): Market Analysis Services.

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by HFblogNews, May 9, 2022.

  1. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 3rd March 2023.

    Market Update – USD & Yields Dip from Highs & Stocks Recover.

    [​IMG]
    The USD slipped from recent highs but holds at 104.75. Yields cooled, but the 2/10 yr yield curve remains inverted by 83 bp as the 2-year yield eyed 5% yesterday. US Stocks closed positive (DOW +1.05%) which has helped lift Asian markets (Nikkei +1.56%) along with a positive spin on the new Chinese economic targets that are due to be announced on Sunday. Sentiment also got a lift from “Dovish” Fedspeak from Bostic who prefers “slow & steady” 25 bp rate hikes to limit recession risks. Overnight: NAB CEO says 3 more RBA rate hikes are possible and Kashkari & Waller continued to press the Hawkish stance. Japanese Unemployment declined to 2.4% and Tokyo area CPI slipped to 3.3% from 3.4%. Chinese Services PMI beat significantly at 55.00 from 52.9 last time.

    • FX – USDIndex rallied to over 105.00 to 105.13, but has cooled to 104.70 now. EUR holds over 1.0600, but declined yesterday to 1.0575 following a hot EZ CPI reading and US Claims. JPY breached 137.00 but has declined to 136.40 now and flat for the week so far. Sterling was a weak performer yesterday declining into Monday’s low at 1.1925 and remains below the key 1.2000 trading at 1.1980 now.
    • Stocks – The US markets rallied yesterday (+0.73% to +1.05%). Movers – #SI -57.72%, TSLA –5.85% & CRM +11.50%. US500 +0.76% (+29.96) 3981, US500 FUTS lower at 3975 now.
    [​IMG]

    • Commodities – USOil – Futures tested to $78.50 yesterday and holds at $78.00 now, and up over 3.00 for the week. Gold – rallied again yesterday from $1830 support and trades at $1843 now.
    • Cryptocurrencies – BTC – tanked overnight by as much as -6% as Coinbase (-1.5%) declined payments to or from Silvergate Capital (-57.72%). Tested under $22k today to $21.85k before recovering to $22.3k now.
    Today – EZ/UK/US Composite & Services PMIs, US ISM Services, Speeches from Fed’s Logan, Bostic, Bowman, Barkin & ECB’s de Guindos.

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.36%). Rallied from a test into the 0.6700 zone yesterday to 0.6760 now. Wednesday’s 0.6780 high is next key resistance. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 59.30 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00112, Daily ATR 0.00752.

    [​IMG]


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  2. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 6th March 2023.

    Market Update – Risk Apettite ahead of a massive week!

    [​IMG]
    China set a modest target for economic growth this year of around 5% on Sunday, and is poised to implement the biggest government shake-up in a decade. Disappointing the markets! USD under pressure. Yields decline and Stocks extend rally today after Friday’s strong close. Stronger than expected data releases have revived tightening speculation and kept a lid on local stocks.

    Rate–sensitive tech shares outperformed in Japan, just like in the US, after comments from Richardmond Fed President Thomas Barkin that inflation is “likely past peak,” which helped to rein in long-term Treasury yields from multi-month highs. A day earlier, Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic hinted that a peak in rates may come in summer.

    [​IMG]

    • USD under pressure retested 104.34 low. EUR extends to 1.0640, for a 2nd day in a row. JPY dipped 135.30 but has inclined to 135.70 now. Sterling jumped to 1.2040 but failed to exit February’s range.
    • Stocks – The US markets rallied amid overtightening comments from FED officials. Movers – US500 +0.76% 4054, US100 +0.76% 12341, US30 +0.76% 33408, GER40 up 0.2%, UK100 futures are flat.
    [​IMG]

    • Commodities – USOil – holds gains above $78.80 from EIA small supply gain seen last week and as markets weigh prospects for China demand after latest economic data. Gold – had its best week since mid-January amid soft USD. Currently at $1858.20.
    • Cryptocurrencies – BTC – tanked on Friday to 21,858 amid Silvergate Failure (Silvergate Halts Crypto Payments After Suffering $1 Billion Loss). Currently recovering above $22k.
    Today – Eurozone January retail sales, February S&P Global PMIs for Germany, France and Eurozone, Canadian Ivey PMI and US Factory Orders.

    [​IMG]

    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCHF (-0.49%). Dipped to 1.2128 on EU open. MA’s aligned lower, MACD histogram turn negative & signal line is at 0, RSI 29 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00116, Daily ATR 0.00776.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  3. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 7th March 2023.

    Market Update – Buoyed investor sentiment ahead of Powell.

    [​IMG]
    USD under pressure, Yields slightly higher buoyed by investor sentiment which also boosted Stocks after they sagged through US session. (Reuters) – China’s exports & imports dropping for January-February pointed to continued weakness in demand for the country’s products & foreign demand, backing government concerns that a global slowdown will be felt at home. RBA raised rates to 3.60% from 3.35% the highest in more than a decade but suggested it might be nearly done tightening as consumer spending was slowing and there was less risk of a wages-driven inflation blow-out. The bid fell out of the markets as trading turned more cautious post weak trade data which weighed on Chinese stocks and ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony.

    • Futures traders are pricing in a 76% probability the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its March 21 to 22 meeting and a 24% likelihood of a 50 bp increase.
    • USD holds at 10-day low area at 104.12 now. Euro retests 1.07, Sterling jumped to 1.2062 above 20-DMA. Aussie at a more than 2-month low of 0.6690.
    • Stocks – JPN225 +0.25% at 28,309 – US500 at 4058, US100 +1% at 12348, US30 +0.12% 33487.META will cut thousands of jobs as soon as this week in a fresh round of layoffs.
    [​IMG]

    • Commodities – USOil – jumped to $80.93. China’s crude oil imports fell 1.3% in the first two months of 2023 from a year earlier, data showed on Tuesday, but analysts pointed to accelerating imports in February as a sign that fuel demand was rebounding after Beijing scrapped COVID-19 controls. Gold – slightly higher at $1850.98.
    • Cryptocurrencies – BTC – steady at $22k.
    Today – Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony first to the Senate Banking Committee, and then to the House Finance Committee tomorrow. He is expected to reiterate the Fed’s hawkish stance of higher for longer rates.

    [​IMG]

    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.50%). Rallied to 1.7982. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line extend higher, RSI 75 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00271, Daily ATR 0.01426.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  4. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 8th March 2023.

    Market Update – Fed is prepared to “speed up”.

    [​IMG]
    USD rallied to 105.85 during Powell’s hawkish speech and holds above 105.57 since then. Yields rose and stock markets remain under pressure. The Nikkei was a notable exception overnight, with a 0.5% gain. Curves are inverting further in Germany and the US as concern that overly aggressive central bank action will hurt the recovery returns. The curve inverted to -104 bps, the most since 1981, from -93 bps.

    [​IMG] A more hawkish than expected stance from Fed Chair Powell saw Treasury yields spike and Wall Street sink, while the dollar firmed. Although Powell did not really say anything new as he reiterated the “higher for longer” policy mantra, he did open the door for a return to a more aggressive 50 bp rate hike and the markets jumped through it. BlackRock sees ‘reasonable chance’ of Fed raising rates to 6%.

    • USD at 105.66 now. Euro drifted to 1.0544, Sterling broke 4-month support to 1.1861, below 20-WMA. Yen spiked to 137.54 on US Dollar strength.
    • Stocks – US500 tumbled 1.53% to close under the 4000 mark. The US100 slid -1.25%. The US30 dropped -1.72% with losses accelerating after the break below 33,000.
    [​IMG]

    • Commodities – USOil – massive sell off from $80.95 to $77.13 on fears that more aggressive US interest rate hikes would hit demand. API shows US crude stocks fall helped oil to find a floor, while USD rise keeps lid on oil. Gold – 1-week low (-1.9%) at 1814.22.
    • Cryptocurrencies – BTC – at $21936.
    Today – Fed Chair Powell’s Testimony to the House Finance Committee. US ADP, & BoC rate decision.

    [​IMG]

    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAUUSD (-1.9%). Plummeted to 1809. MAs flattened, MACD histogram & signal line remain well below 0, RSI 30 & flat, H1 ATR 2.32, Daily ATR 18.25.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  5. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 9th March 2023.

    Market Update – The DAMAGE has been done!

    [​IMG]
    The damage from the Fed has been done and fears of an upshift to a faster pace of rate hikes this month, along with an even higher terminal rate and for a longer period of time, saw yields cheapen further. ADP and JOLTS showed a still hot labor market. USD steady at 105.60, Treasury yields nudged higher overnight, as did JGB rates ahead of the current BoJ meeting.The curve inverted further to -108 bps from -104.8 bps Tuesday, the most inverted since 1981. BOC left the policy rate unchanged at 4.50%, a tie for the highest rate since 2007 and indicated it would continue its quantitative tightening strategy.

    Overnight: China’s Feb consumer inflation slowed (1.0% from 2.1%), Producer deflation deepened. In Japan Kazuo Ueda nomination as the next central bank governor was approved, signing off on a new leadership that will be tasked with steering a smooth exit from ultra-loose monetary policy.

    • USD hovers near 3-month high at 105.66 now. Euro held 1.0520 floor, Sterling at 1.1850. Yen gained some ground against USD, pullback to 136.60. The Loonie lost some ground, but is recovering with USDCAD at 1.3820 (4-month high)
    • Stocks – US100 rose by 0.40% to close to 12,252. The US500 +0.14%. The US30 dropped -0.18, slid to 32,740 today. [​IMG]
    • Commodities – USOil – extended losses to $76.19. Steady today below PP at $76.70, as US crude stocks fell 1.7 million barrels (more than expected) and hopes for China demand (China’s crude oil imports fell 1.3%) contended with worries that more aggressive US interest rate rises would slow economic growth and dent oil consumption.
    • Gold – in a tight range at $1811-$1816. Ahead of Jobs Gold may bounce to $1,825 before falling towards Feb. 28 low.
    • Cryptocurrencies – BTC – below 50-DMA, retests at $21,536. Key supports at Feb low at 21,280 and year’s gap (19,888-20,350).
    Today – US Initial Jobless claims.

    [​IMG]

    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (-0.49%). Plummeted to 98.99. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram & signal line remain well below 0 and falling RSI 35 but flat, H1 ATR 0.137, Daily ATR 0.729.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  6. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 10th March 2023.

    Market Update – Stock Tumbled!
    Blame is on Banks!

    [​IMG]

    It is not only the Fed this time but also the US Banks and more precisely the SVB Financial Group SIVB which drifted by -60.41% yesterday. Shares of SVB, the parent of Silicon Valley Bank, disclosed the loss and sought to raise $2.25 billion in fresh capital by selling new shares. The 4 biggest US banks lost $47 bln in Market Value! (BoA, Citi, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo). Jobless Claims unexpectedly ticked up. Germany February final CPI remains sticky at +8.7% vs +8.7% y/y prelim. UK January monthly GDP +0.3% vs +0.1% m/m expected.

    [​IMG] [​IMG]

    Overnight: BoJ left policy unchanged, as universally anticipated, in Governor Kuroda’s final meeting. The policy rate was left steady at -0.1%, along with a 0.5% cap on the 10-year JGB yield (YCC).The vote was a unanimous 9-0. JGB & Nikkei (-1.67%) sinks overnight, the Kuroda swansong maintains Yield Curve Control with no tweaks and outlook remains as Dovish as ever. China’s Xi Jinping takes third term as President with eye on US.

    • USDIndex gapped down to 104.62 low.
    • VIX climbed 18%, the biggest jump since June, to 22.42.
    • Euro jumped to 1.0590, Sterling up at 1.1950. Yen jumped to 136.96 from 135.80. USDCAD at 1.3850 high.
    • Treasury yields plunged Thursday, first richening on the cooling in weekly jobless claims, then extending lower as Wall Street slumped sharply. Technical buying also supported the rally in Treasuries.
    • Stocks – US100 dove by -2.05%. The US500 -1.85%. The US30 dropped -1.66%. Russell slid -3%, Topix Banks -5.83%. PacWest Bancorp fell 25%, and First Republic Bank lost 17%. Charles Schwab Corp. fell 13%, while US Bancorp lost 7%. America’s biggest bank, JPMorgan Chase & Co., fell 5.4%. Twitter and Elon Musk face legal risks in FTC Probe. Tesla (-4.99%). [​IMG]
    • USOil – dips to $74.93.
    • Gold – rebounds to $1834.79 but looks to be capped around here by the hawkish Fed outlook.
    • Cryptocurrencies – BTC – below $20K, filled January’s gap! Next supports at 2022 bottom!
    Today – NFP and Canadian Labor data!

    [​IMG]

    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX(+18%). Spiked to 22.42. MAs are now flat, MACD histogram & signal line remain well above 0, RSI 79 but flat, Stochastics falling, H1 ATR 0.36, Daily ATR 1.24.

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  7. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 14th March 2023.

    Market Update – Markets brace ahead of Inflation!

    [​IMG]
    The fallout from the failure of SVB and Signature Bank has been far and wide, rattling global markets. Much of the focus now is on upcoming central bank actions and whether policymakers will be hesitant to add to market volatility with additional rate hikes.

    Wall Street was all over the board and finished mixed. Equities opened on the backfoot after steep declines overnight and amid losses of -2% in European bourses. Stocks slumped in Asia. Major US regional bank stocks suffered their largest decline in three years, FRC -61.83%, Credit Suisse fell by 15% (withdrew $120 billion in the three months to Dec. 31).

    With the creation of the new “BTFP” to backstop the financial system, Treasuries garnered a very strong flight to safety bid, and especially at the front end of the curve. The markets also repriced Fed rate hike expectations, taking out the prospects for further aggressive action, and pricing in rate cuts later in the year. US Dollar was generally weaker through the session.

    [​IMG] Investors bet against the 2-year Treasury en masse, expecting its yield to continue climbing. That was the worst three-day rout since the days after Black Monday in 1987 eventhough it was not maintained.

    • USDIndex fell to 103.48 with losses against its G10 peers. Today slightly higher.
    • Yields – The 2-year had its biggest slide since 2008, to a low of 3.935%. It closed at 3.984%, the lowest since mid-September and is 113 bps richer just from Wednesday’s 5.07% peak, which was the highest since 2007. The 10-year closed at 3.568%.
    • VIX climbed to 28.35 before retracing to 24.47.
    • Euro settled slightly below 1.07, Sterling held gains at 1.2160 (no impact from tight labor data). Yen picked up a strong haven bid to 133.00.
    • Stocks – US100 posted a +0.45% gain, US500 -0.15% lower, US30 closed in red -0.28%.

    [​IMG] [​IMG]
    • USOil – held losses ahead of key inflation data as the biggest US bank collapse since 2008 continued to ripple through financial markets. It is at $74 rising 0.65%.
    • Gold – surges lower after 5% rally to $1914. Currently at $1909.
    • Cryptocurrencies – BTC surges by 12% spiking to $24,815.
      • Ether also climbed 6% to $1,693.
    Today: US CPI report could give the FOMC the chance to remain sidelined, or at least decide on a 25 bp hike versus the 50 bps that was firmly priced in last Wednesday.

    [​IMG]

    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX (+6.94%). Spiked to 28.55 before settling below PP at 24.47.
    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Andria Pichidi
    Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  8. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 15th March 2023.

    Market Update – March 15 – Can the bounce back hold?

    [​IMG]
    The USD tested into 20-day lows again as Stock markets recovered (NASDAQ +2.14%) from 3 big down days following the SVB shock. US CPI cooled to 6% from 6.4% (as expected), however the CORE figure for February actually rose and demonstrates the “stickiness” of Services inflation in particular. Fed Funds Futures see an 81.2% chance of a 25bp hike next week from the FED. Overnight: The BOJ Mins. confirmed commitment to super easy policy noting a rising inflation picture, Chinese Unemployment surprisingly increased to 5.6% as Retail Sales recovered strongly to 3.5% from –1.8%.

    • FX – USDIndex has dipped again to test the 103.00 zone today, last Wednesday it was at 105.85. EUR holds over 1.0700 and has breached 1.0750 today. JPY holds over 134.00 but remains capped by 135.00 today. Sterling ahead of the UK Budget today holds at 1.2150 after testing 1.2200 highs on Monday & Tuesday.
    • Stocks – The US markets rallied yesterday (+1.06% to +2.14%) as tech companies recovered and Banks bounced. Movers: FRC +27%, SCHW +9.19%, META +7.25%, (another 10k job losses) TSLA +5.03%. BANCORP -3.43%, AMC -5.20%. US500 +1.68% (+29.96) to recover 3900 to close at 3920, US500 FUTS higher at 3925 now.
    [​IMG]

    • Commodities – USOil – Futures collapsed some –4% yesterday, posting new 2023 & 2022 lows at $70.72. It has since recovered +1.35% to recent support levels at $72.20, which could now act as resistance. Gold – holds the key psychological $1900 level, up some $90 an ounce from tests of $1809 last week.
    • Cryptocurrencies – BTC breached both $25 & $26K yesterday to test a 9-mth high at $26.3k. Currently it trades below $25k at $24.8k.
    Today – EZ Industrial Production, US NY Fed, PPI & Retail Sales, UK Spring Budget, IEA OMR, NZ GDP.

    [​IMG]

    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.59%). Continued the rally today from Monday’s low under 141.500 back to test 145.00 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 71.53, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.222, Daily ATR 1.377.

    [​IMG]

    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  9. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

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    Date : 16th March 2023.

    Market Update – March 16 – all Eyes on Zurich…and Frankfurt.

    [​IMG]
    Trading Leveraged Products is risky

    Concerns over Credit Suisse added to the fallout from the collapse of SVB, Signature Bank and Silvergate. And though there have been problems at the big Swiss bank for years, fears of a global contagion exacerbated investor jitters. The Bank was down -30% at one point – closed -14%. The Swiss authorities will offer a loan of $54bn to try to prevent collapse and the stock is +35% pre-market. A risk off mood has raced around the World and holds for now.

    USD, CHF, JPY & Gold had safe haven bids and the short end of the yield curve collapsed with the 2-yr falling the fastest in decades. Stock markets recovered from 2023 lows into close after heavy losses on open (NASDAQ +0.05%). Asian markets lower (-0.80% to -2.12%), US PPI & Retail Sales both undershot expectations, and the UK Budget focused on pensions and childcare as millions of workers continued to strike. Overnight: Japanese Machine Orders and the Trade Balance were both much better than expected and in Australia Unemployment dropped to 3.5% as jobs soared to 65K from a decline of 11k last month. NZD GDP missed at -0.6% q/q vs. -0.2% and 2.2% y/y vs. 3.3%.

    • FX – USDIndex rallied over 150 pts to 104.70 yesterday and has eased to 104.20 now. EUR tanked from over 1.0750 to under 1.0520 before recovering 1.0600 today. JPY holds over 133.00 now but ranged from 135.00 to 132.40 yesterday. Sterling tanked from 1.2150 to test the key 1.2000 yesterday and trades at 1.2070 now.
    • Stocks – The US markets opened 1-2% lower but recovered into close (-0.87% to +0.05%) Movers: SCHW +5.06%, XOM -4.97%, CVX -4.33%. US500 -0.70% (-27.36) to 3892, US500 FUTS +0.95% higher at 3930 now.
    [​IMG]

    • Commodities – USOil – Futures collapsed some -6% again yesterday, following a -4% fall on Tuesday to touch $65.70 lows last touched December 2021. It has since recovered to $67.80. Gold – holds the key psychological $1900 level, at $1920 down from yesterday’s 6-week $1935 high.
    • Cryptocurrencies – BTC dipped to $24k from $25K yesterday and trades at $24.5k now.
    Today – US Building Permits/Housing Starts, Export/Import Prices, Weekly Claims, ECB Policy Announcement & Press Conference.

    [​IMG]


    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.60%). Continued the rally today from yesterday’s low under 0.6600 back to test 0.6660 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line negative but rising, RSI 59.56 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00154, Daily ATR 0.00782.

    [​IMG]


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     
  10. HFblogNews

    HFblogNews Senior Investor

    Joined:
    May 2017
    Posts:
    1,527
    Likes Received:
    0
    Date : 17th March 2023.

    Market Update – March 17 – Another day another bank bailout.

    [​IMG]

    A private ($30 bln) “rescue” of First Republic Bank by a consortium of 11 big banks helped ease concerns over a full blown financial crisis. Their efforts were rewarded yesterday, as risk appetite improved and investors returned to Wall Street, lifting the major indexes sharply. USA100 jump 2.48% and is up 7.95% from Monday’s nadir, the US500 advance 1.76%, and the USA30 was 1.17% firmer. A risk off mood that raced around the world this week has cooled. Asian markets are firmer too (Hang Seng leads at +1.44%) and European FUTS are also in positive territory.

    USD & Treasuries have cooled as yields recover. The 2-year jumped 27 bp to 4.155% and the 10-year was up 12 bp to 3.569%, back over the 4.00% and 3.5% levels, respectively. The curve bear flattened to -59 bp from -44 bp on Wednesday and versus -108 bp a week ago.

    ECB delivered a 50 bp rate hike, and stuck to its guns, despite the turmoil in financial markets this week. The guidance on future moves was not surprisingly dropped though and the ECB stressed that future decisions will be data dependent. Ms. Lagarde’s Press Conference emphasised the data dependency approach.

    US Data & Overnight: US Weekly Claims fell again (192k vs. 212k) and the Housing Data was also better than expected. Japanese Tertiary Industrial Activity rose significantly too (0.95 vs -0.4% last month).

    • FX – USDIndex has dipped to test 103.50 today from 104.70 highs on Wednesday. EUR tanked to 1.0550 lows as the ECB announcement was digested, before rallying to 1.0660 now. The 1.0600-1.0700 range remains key. JPY spiked below 132.00, rallied to 133.75 and is back to 133.00 now. Sterling rallied over 1.2100 yesterday and trades at 1.2160 now.
    • Stocks – The US markets rallied (+1.17% to +2.48%) Movers: SCHW -2.80%, FRC rallied +10% (but lost –17% after hours). Tech giants gained over 4% MSFT, AMZN & GOOG . US500 +1.67% (+68) to 3960, US500 FUTS higher too 4000 now.
    [​IMG]


    • Commodities – USOil – Futures tested the 15-mth low at $65.70 again yesterday before recovering to $69.00. Gold – holds the key psychological $1900 level, at $1930 down from yesterday’s 6-week $1935 high.
    • Cryptocurrencies – BTC has again rallied over $25K & $26k to $26.5k now.
    Today – EZ HICP (Final), US Industrial Production, Leading Index Change, Univ. of Michigan (Prelim.) and Quad Witching.

    [​IMG]

    Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.95%). Continued the rally today from yesterday’s low under 0.6150 back to test 0.6250 now. MA’s aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line positive & rising, RSI 71.00, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.00128, Daily ATR 0.00766.

    [​IMG]


    Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

    Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

    Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

    Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

    Click HERE to READ more Market news.

    Stuart Cowell
    Head Market Analyst
    HFMarkets

    Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
     

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