Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

Hot forecast for EUR/USD on 27/03/2023

At first glance, preliminary estimates of PMIs in Europe turned out to be very good. At 55.6, the services Purchasing Managers' Index hit a 10-month high in March, up from 52.7 in February, with a forecast of 52.3 points. In other words, it should have declined, but instead it rose. Due to that the flash composite output index, which should have decreased from 52.0 to 51.3 points, rose more-than-expected to 54.1 in March. Only the manufacturing PMI fell to a four-month low of 47.1 from 48.5 in the previous month, though it should have increased to 49.8 points. To a certain extent this was what prevented the euro from rising further.

Composite PMI (Europe):

And after the opening of the US trading session, the euro fell, because in America, not only were the same PMIs better than forecasts, in fact, they turned out to be much better. The US Manufacturing PMI in March was 49.3 points, up from the previous value of 47.3 points. It was expected to have fallen to 47.0 points. Meanwhile, the Services PMI jumped to 53.8 points instead of increasing from 50.6 to 51.0. As a result, the composite purchasing managers index rose from 50.1 points to 53.3 points, with a forecast of 49.0 points.

Composite PMI (United States):

Today, the macroeconomic calendar is completely empty and the market is likely to consolidate around the reached values.

The euro entered a bearish correction after it sharply rose last week. The pair broke through a resistance level of 1.0800. As a result, the volume of short positions increased.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI downwardly crossed the 50 middle line, thus reflecting bearish sentiment among traders.

On the same chart, the Alligator's MAs are intertwined, signaling a slowing bull cycle. On the one-day chart, the Alligator's MAs are still headed upwards.

Outlook

Based on the corrective phase, its scale has already reached the possible limit. Therefore, the euro can still recover and climb above 1.0800. However, in case the bearish sentiment persists, and the quote stays below 1.0700, the market situation may still change.

The complex indicator analysis points to a correction in the short-term and intraday periods.

 

Gold to climb above $2,000

Throughout this week, many analysts predicted that gold could jump to $2,000 and even above. The yellow metal met expectations and reached the specified peaks. Now the primary task for the precious metal is to sustain its gains, experts believe.

Weak data on the US labor market has acted as a strong driving force behind gold's rally. Recall that in February, the number of job openings in the US labor market (JOLTS) dropped to 9.93 million, the lowest level since May 2021. Notably, in January 2023, the figure was 10.56 million. According to analysts, the current data indicates a cooling labor market. Previously, Fed officials, including Chairman Jerome Powell, emphasized that the overheated US labor market hinders the regulator in their efforts to curb inflation. Therefore, the Federal Reserve is confidently moving towards its goal, specifically achieving a 2% inflation rate.

Experts estimate that the current JOLTS reports have reinforced market expectations of the Fed's shift to a softer approach to monetary policy. Currently, the majority of analysts (almost 60%) expect the regulator to keep the key interest rate in a range of 4.75% - 5% per annum at the May meeting. At the same time, some experts anticipate a 25 basis-point rate hike.

After the JOLTS reports were released, the yellow metal broke through the level of $2,000 per troy ounce. On Tuesday evening, April 4, gold prices jumped from $1,990 to $2,020 within 20 minutes. Later, the precious metal stabilized at around $2,010, reaching the highest level since March 2022. On Wednesday, April 5, gold slightly appreciated, rising to $2,040 per troy ounce.

According to experts' estimates, the precious metal added 2% amid a weaker greenback. As a result, the US dollar index, which measures the performance of the dollar against a basket of six currencies, fell by 0.55% to 101.58. However, despite a decline in the dollar and a rise in the precious metal, Commerzbank economists believe that gold may enter a correction and lose value. This is facilitated by a recent increase in oil prices, which worries market participants and increases the risk of another inflationary spiral.

Currently, the value of gold is being formed by "fears of the dollar as economic factors do not provide substantial support for the US currency," David Lennox, an analyst at Fat Prophets, said. In addition, demand for the yellow metal as a safe-haven asset increased amid the recent banking crisis and geopolitical tensions.

Economists at Swiss investment bank UBS assume that gold will gain ground in the near future, proving its traditional "safe-haven" status in the current uncertain environment. Amid recent turmoil in the financial market, spot gold prices surpassed the $2,000 mark, reaching a 12-month high. The yellow metal gained momentum due to falling yields in the US, a weaker dollar, and increased risk appetite, experts estimated.

According to UBS forecasts, in the current situation, gold will reach the target mark of $2,100 per troy ounce in 2023. Previously, bank analysts expected the metal to achieve this height by the end of March 2024. However, things have changed, and the precious metal is now actively gaining value. This can be attributed to the global banking crisis. Against this background, gold prices soared to an all-time high, rising above $2,000 per troy ounce. A subsequent minor correction did not change investors' views. Market participants remained bullish on the precious metal.

Another factor contributing to higher gold prices is increased demand from central banks seeking to diversify their investments. Notably, gold is a great choice for investors to hedge against potential financial risks amid possible monetary policy easing. Market players are currently pricing in such a scenario.

Many analysts believe that by the end of this year, the FOMC may move to lower interest rates. However, this step is not favorable to gold. A perfect driving force for gold would be a situation where the Fed and the ECB begin to cut rates earlier than anticipated, while inflation targets are not met. In this case, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset will increase sharply. However, there is an alternative scenario. It suggests that the precious metal will trim some of its early gains if higher oil prices raise concerns about another inflationary spiral and further interest rate hikes.

Among recent forecasts, there is an almost fantastic one. Some economists expect gold prices to reach $3,000 per troy ounce. They believe it is a matter of time as the financial system has faced serious shocks. Against this background, interest in safe-haven assets is growing, primarily in gold. After the metal overcomes the barrier of $2,000 per troy ounce, it will probably head toward a new high. This scenario is possible in the long run.

 

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 10/04/2023

There is nothing surprising about the fact that the market stood still on Friday despite the release of the US Department of Labor report, as both Europe and North America were observing Good Friday. However, the contents of the report were quite interesting. It was not about the unemployment rate, which remained unchanged as expected, but about the number of new non-farm jobs created, which was only 236,000. It was expected to be 250,000, while in the previous month 326,000 new jobs were created. In other words, the US labor market is clearly losing momentum, which of course increases the chances of a gradual easing of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. And it will naturally put pressure on the dollar. The only thing is to wait for the market's reaction after the opening of the US trading session, since Europe is still observing a holiday.

Number of new non-farm jobs created (United States):

The GBPUSD pair is in the stage of a pullback from the resistance level of 1.2500. As a result, the pound has lost about 0.8%, which is approximately 110 pips. Despite the ongoing pullback, the uptrend persists, as shown by the recent update of the local high of the medium-term.

On the four-hour chart, the RSI downwardly crossed the 50 middle line, during the pullback. In the intraday period, the signal points to the growth in the volume of short positions.

The Alligator's MAs are intertwined in the 4-hour time frame, signaling a slowing bull cycle. In the daily chart, the Alligator's MA's are still heading upward, reflecting a bullish cycle.

Outlook

We can assume that the pullback serves as a time of regrouping trading forces, during which a new wave of growth is possible. However, in order to make this a reality, a number of technical conditions must be met. First and foremost, the current pullback should end. The 1.2380/1.2400 area may serve as a support. A subsequent signal in favor of growth is when the price trades within the level of 1.2500, and as a result, the volume of long positions may increase.

As for the bearish scenario, traders consider it as a full-size correction, where the current pullback will remain towards the level of 1.2300.

The complex indicator analysis unveiled that in the intraday and short-term periods, technical indicators are pointing to the pullback. Meanwhile, in the medium-term periods, the indicators are reflecting an upward cycle.

 

EUR/USD. The inflation report has bumped the dollar. Welcome to the 1.10th figure?

The EUR/USD pair approached the limits of the 10th figure, impulsively rising to 1.0990. The greenback fell across the market, reacting to the US inflation report, and the dollar index updated its weekly low. However, despite the upward momentum, bulls have not yet been able to test the 10th figure, let alone consolidate above the 1.1000 mark. The fact is that the inflation report is somewhat contradictory: while the Consumer Price Index continues to fall, the core index showed an upward dynamic. Therefore, the 1.1000 level holds steady, although the positions of the dollar bulls have noticeably shaken.

In the language of dry numbers:

The CPI fell quite sharply in March - by 1% compared to the February value. With a forecasted decline to 5.6% (according to other estimates - to 5.2%), the indicator came out at 5.0% in annual terms (in February, the index was at 6.0% y/y). This is the weakest growth rate since May 2021. In monthly terms, the index was also in the "red", reaching 0.1% (with a forecasted growth of 0.3%).

At the same time, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, came out at the forecasted level: in annual terms, the indicator rose to 5.6%. Notably, for the last 5 months, the core index consistently declined from 6.6% (in September 2022) to 5.5% (in February 2023). For the first time in the last six months, the growth rate of the core CPI accelerated.

The report indicates that energy prices in March fell by 6.4% after February's growth of 5.2% (in particular, gasoline prices dropped by 17.4%). Food prices in March rose by 8.5% after an increase of 9.5% in February. Used cars became cheaper by 11.6% (in February, a decline of 13.6% was recorded). Overall, most price categories showed easing price pressure - even rent. This segment is important because high rental prices have prevented underlying inflationary pressure from easing. However, according to some experts' estimates, in the mid-term (in the coming months), a further decline in rental inflation can be expected.

Market reaction

Markets reacted quite significantly to the sharp drop in inflation. The US dollar index fell within a few hours from 101.85 to the current low of 101.16. If the current rates persist, the index will test the hundredth figure – for the first time since early February. Treasury yields also fell: in particular, the yield on 10-year government bonds has currently dropped by 5 basis points (i.e., to 3.378%), while the yield on 2-year notes has fallen by 7.9 basis points, to 3.945%.

On the other hand, gold is showing an uptrend: June gold contracts on the New York Comex exchange have impulsively risen by almost 1% to $2,037 per troy ounce.

The dollar is also getting weaker amid growing hawkish expectations. According to data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in May is currently over 70% (72.2%). On Tuesday, the chances of this scenario being realized were estimated at 60% (and accordingly, the probability of maintaining the status quo was 40%).

Conclusions

Despite the growth of hawkish expectations, the dollar remains under significant pressure, even in the EUR/USD pair. In my opinion, this is due to the assumption that the anticipated 25-point rate hike at the May meeting will be the last in the current cycle of monetary tightening. The recent "banking crisis" did not go unnoticed – including for the Federal Reserve, which significantly softened its position after the March shocks in the banking sector. It is unclear how these events will affect lending and, consequently, economic activity in the United States in the mid- and long-term. Therefore, in addition to the expected completion of the current tightening cycle, the Fed also has the option to lower rates in the second half of this year. Whether the Fed will use this option or not is an open and debatable question, but the mere fact of such a discussion will put pressure on the greenback. By the way, according to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, such a scenario "is not a base case" (meaning it is not completely ruled out). At the same time, the European Central Bank shows a more hawkish stance, allowing, in particular, a 50-point rate hike in May.

Thus, the fundamental background for the pair continues to favor the growth of EUR/USD. The report weakened the dollar across the market and triggered a bullish momentum for the pair, and so bulls approached the limits of the 10th-figure closely. A slight "blemish" in the report, in the form of a rise in core CPI, did not allow traders to impulsively overcome the support level of 1.1000, but the bullish sentiment prevails.

The technical picture indicates that on the daily chart, the pair is between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator, as well as above all the lines of the Ichimoku indicator (including above the Kumo cloud). This combination suggests that we go for long positions. The resistance level (the target of the bullish movement) is located at 1.1030 – this is the upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the same chart.

 

Euro locks in profit

When American exceptionalism turns into doom, the US dollar has nothing left to do but flee the battlefield. In Forex, there is a growing opinion that only the US will face a recession in 2023, while the eurozone will manage to avoid an economic downturn, and China will be vigorously recovering. This is in stark contrast to last year's events when, due to the armed conflict in Ukraine and the energy crisis, the currency bloc was on the verge of collapse, and EURUSD fell below parity for the first time in 20 years. Today, the market has different realities.

The release of US retail sales data only heightened investors' concerns about a significant slowdown in GDP. The indicator shrank for the second consecutive time, significantly stronger, at 1% MoM, than Bloomberg experts estimated. If consumer spending collapses following the crisis in the real estate and banking sectors, a recession will become inevitable. The Federal Reserve will have to make a dovish pivot in 2023, no matter what the central bank says otherwise. This will weaken the US dollar.

Dynamics of retail sales in the US

Markets are currently set for a 25 basis point increase in the federal funds rate in May, followed by a 75 basis point decrease in the second half of the year. Such a balance of power became possible after consumer prices slowed from 6% to 5% and the first slump in producer prices in two years on a monthly basis. US inflation is clearly slowing down, allowing investors to argue that the Fed has done its job and the monetary tightening cycle is nearing its end.

In Europe, the picture is different. There, European Central Bank officials are very aggressive amid record core inflation levels. It needs to be broken, and the short-term market predicts a further 75 basis point increase in the deposit rate, to 3.75%. At the same time, derivatives believe that at the next Governing Council meeting in May, the cost of borrowing will increase by 31 basis points. So the chances of +50 basis points still remain, which contributes to the rise in EURUSD quotes. In terms of the interest rate swap market, the euro is still undervalued compared to the USD.

Dynamics of EURUSD and interest rate swap differentials

In my opinion, the decline in the main currency pair in response to the disappointing US retail sales data is the result of speculators taking profits on long positions after a sharp EURUSD rally throughout the week leading up to April 14. When everyone is buying, there is an excellent opportunity to sell, so there is no need to be surprised by the seemingly unexpected strengthening of the US dollar. It's just the peculiarities of trading.

Technically, on the daily chart, EURUSD bounced off the upper limit of the fair value range at 1.0675-1.0975. No asset can grow indefinitely, and the correction seems like a necessary breather. At the same time, the uptrend persists, and a bounce off support levels at 1.097 and 1.09 should be used to establish long positions.

 

Pension funds and hedge funds opt for gold

Despite hopes for lower inflation, the world's pension funds are still not taking risks. They are increasing their interest in gold, expanding their positions. According to the latest risk management report by Ortec Finance, published on Thursday, the company's analysts stated that they are 90% confident in a decline in inflation. Worldwide, more than half of the managers of government pension funds with a total of over $3 trillion in assets under management assume that inflation will be 3.3% or even lower this year. This assumption is already much lower than last year's survey, which predicted inflation at around 6.4%. The survey also showed that only 10% of global asset managers believe inflation will exceed 6%.

A week after the U.S. Department of Labor published data on the Consumer Price Index, which grew less than expected over the last 12 months to 5%, the survey results appeared. However, despite the optimism of fund managers that inflation will continue to decline, they are still not taking risks, increasing their positions in gold and other commodities.

According to the study, about 70% of the surveyed fund managers said their plans include increasing their participation in commodities. Specifically, 40% decided to increase their investments in gold; 42% said they increased their bond holdings.

Analysts believe that hedge funds' interest in gold should continue to support the precious metal and push prices to historical highs. Nevertheless, analysts noted that their bullish positions in gold are currently low compared to last year.

According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, asset managers have long positions in gold of 104,000 contracts, about 27% of the peak in 2022 when prices exceeded $2,000 an ounce. Also, holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products show there are fewer investors compared to the previous period. In March, gold-backed ETFs received a net inflow for the first time in 10 months.

Now, the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD), contains 926.57 tons of gold. This is less than in March 2022, when it contained 1,100 tons.

 

Hot forecast for GBP/USD on 26/04/2023

It was assumed that new home sales in the United States would decrease by -0.5%, but suddenly, they jumped as much as 9.6%. So, investors who were initially prepared to sell the dollar further had instead begun to open longs on the dollar. The results of the housing prices report didn't even stop them, the growth rate of which slowed from 5.3% to 4.0%. Especially since estimates were a slowdown to 3.9%. And so, US macro data turned out to be better than forecasts. And the sales data was simply delightful.

New home sales (United States):

And today, the dollar may continue rising. This time, the reason should be orders for durable goods. According to forecasts, they can grow by 0.6%. So, the dollar should continue to grow. But only if the actual data matches the forecasts. And not like yesterday, when they turned out to be completely opposite.

Orders for durable goods (United States):

The GBP/USD pair sharply switched to a decline, losing about 0.8% of its value. However, this movement did not lead to anything crucial. The quote still moves within the sideways range of 1.2350/1.2550.

During the downward cycle, on the four-hour chart, the RSI technical indicator crossed the midline 50 downwards. The RSI points to an increase in the volume of short positions for the British pound.

On the four-hour chart, the Alligator's MAs have multiple intersections with each other, which corresponds to a signal of stagnation. In the mid-term, it is directed upwards, which coincides with the trend direction.

Outlook

Traders can work within a flat because the range width is sufficient for speculative activity, as evidenced by the recent price jump. The main strategy is still focused on the outgoing momentum from the flat, which, in a technical perspective, may indicate the succeeding price movement.

In terms of the complex indicator analysis, we see that in the short-term and intraday periods, technical indicators are pointing towards different directions due to the stagnation. In this case, it points to a bearish sentiment due to the downward momentum. In the mid-term period, the indicators are reflecting an upward cycle.

 

Slowing global inflation called into question. RBA raises rates, possible revision of RBNZ rate forecast. Review of USD, NZD, AUD

The US Manufacturing ISM report showed an increase in positivity, with the index rising from 46.3 to 47.1. However, at the same time as the sector's recovery, we should take note that a number of sub-indices favor higher inflation – prices jumped from 49.2 to 53.2, employment increased by 3.3 points, to 50.2, and new orders are still in contraction territory.

After a pause, which optimists declared the end of the banking crisis, another bank went bankrupt - First Republic Bank. After the purchase of FRB, JPMorgan shares rose more than 2%, as JPMorgan acquired $30 billion in assets, while losses were shared with FDIC, i.e., the state. The rescue of another bank has led to the fact that FDIC has virtually exhausted all reserves, a number of small regional banks are in line for rescue, and as the crisis escalates, it will be increasingly difficult.

US Treasury Secretary Yellen warned Congress that, by optimistic estimates, the government will not be able to fulfill its financial obligations by June 1 if Congress does not raise the debt ceiling by then. Republicans have already prepared a bill providing for a $1.5 trillion increase in the debt ceiling, with a simultaneous reduction in spending of more than $4.5 trillion.

Markets will trade with low volatility until the outcome of the Federal Reserve meeting is announced. The main intrigue lies in whether the Fed will maintain the prospect of another rate hike, as there are clear signs that inflation is ready to resume growth after a pause. Q1 PCE data clearly confirms this.

Against this backdrop, oil prices have fallen again, as have commodity currencies, as the trend towards a slowdown in global inflation is called into question.

NZDUSD

The focus is on the Q1 labor market report overnight on Wednesday, with expectations moderately positive. In February, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand forecasted an increase in the unemployment rate from 3.5% in Q1 to 4.8% by the end of the year, but at the same time, a sharp increase in wages. The RBNZ expects annual growth from 4.3% at the end of 2022 to 4.9% in Q2, which will strengthen inflation expectations.

There is also another unexpected news - from June 1, the RBNZ plans to ease lending conditions. Such a decision may require a higher rate to curb inflation growth, but so far, the market has not reacted, expectations for the RBNZ's May meeting remain stable, the bank will raise the rate by 0.25%, this outcome is already priced in and will not have a significant impact on the Kiwi rate.

The net long position in NZD decreased by $43 million for the reporting week to -$200 million, with a slight bearish bias. The calculated price goes down, signaling a strengthening of bearish sentiment.

NZDUSD did not reach the support level of 0.6079, but the upward retracement is unlikely to be strong. The nearest resistance is at 0.6240/50, where we expect the growth to end and the downward reversal to follow. The next support is the mid-channel area, coinciding with the local low of 0.6105, followed by 0.6020.

AUDUSD

The Reserve Bank of Australia surprised the markets considerably, not only did it raise the rate by a quarter point to 3.85%, but it also significantly changed the tone of the accompanying statement compared to that of April's. The statement reiterates the thesis that "some further tightening of monetary policy may be required," but emphasizes that the RBA wants to achieve this in "a reasonable timeframe," this thesis is repeated twice, unlike the previous forecast of inflation normalization in 2025. It paid more attention to wage growth.

The results of the RBA meeting are undoubtedly a bullish factor for the Aussie. Futures reacted with an increase in the probability of another 25 bps hike, and the Australian dollar became the leader in daily growth, pulling the NZD along with it.

Apparently, the RBA sees a threat of higher inflation or at least a more prolonged one, and the threat is real.

The net short position in AUD decreased by $234 million to -$2.615 billion, with bearish positioning. The calculated price lost momentum and shows signs of turning south, the forecast is neutral.

AUDUSD continues to trade in a horizontal channel, the decline expected a week ago turned out to be slightly deeper, but the subsequent bullish momentum on the background of the unexpected RBA decision quickly lost momentum. We suppose that till the end of the Fed meeting, trading will be in a narrow range, and further direction will be chosen based on the presence or absence of hawkish wording in the final statement of the Fed. By the end of the week, I expect the pair to fall to the border of the range at 0.6565.

 

Gold stumbles due to Fed rate hike expectations

Gold exhibited mixed performance this week, rising strongly and then pulling back from recent peaks. Analysts believe that gold's rally is currently on hiatus, and that the precious metal is ready to move in a different direction. Uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate trajector is contributing to gold's slowed momentum.

At the start of the week, gold marginally increased, but gave up part of its gains and slipped by 0.80%. This was due to ambiguous macroeconomic data from the US, which nonetheless showed signs of resilience. US retail sales were also notably robust. According to current data, industrial production in America bounced back in April, while the manufacturing sector is facing difficulties.

Retail sales excluding autos went up by 0.4% m/m, which matched forecasts. Year-over-year, sales rose by 1.6%, below last month's 2.4%. Experts believe it indicates that the US economy is slowing down.

US industrial production grew by 0.5% m/m in April. Year-on-year, it rose to 0.2% from 0.1% in the previous months. According to the latest data, manufacturing production increased by 1% m/m. Furthermore, an uptick in automobile production was observed, bolstering the US dollar and dampening gold's upside prospects.

Macroeconomic factors and higher US government bond yields have weighted down on the precious metal. Consequently, gold has slightly declined. Its downward movement has accelerated by week's end. The precious metal has now bounced downwards from the key level of $2,000 per ounce. On Thursday morning, 18 May, XAU/USD was trading at $1,977, trying to recoup losses, but with limited success.

As the precious metal slides down, investors are now focused on new US data, which is set to be published later today. The next batch of data will help investors assess the state of the US economy and predict the Fed's next interest rate move. In addition, the US Department of Labor will release the initial unemployment claims report. Preliminary forecasts indicate that jobless claims fell by 10,000 in the first week of May after rising by 22,000 earlier, reaching its highest level since October 2021.

Uncertainty regarding the US debt ceiling is another important factor for gold. Continuing discussions on the issue has yet to find a solution. Earlier, US President Joe Biden met with Congress representatives to address the issue. Analysts estimate the current situation has pushed up the precious metal, which benefits from anxiety in the market. Gold is universally considered to be a traditional safe-haven asset that can protect the holder's capital.

Higher industrial production in the US has boosted the market. As a result, traders and investors are pricing in the possibility of another interest rate hike in mid-June. Analysts suggest that the change in market expectations has triggered another dollar movement, weighing down on gold.

Gold's noticeable decline has been attributed not only to the mixed US macroeconomic data, but also to the Federal Reserve's current decisions on interest rates. As a result, the precious metal is approaching its April lows. Analysts believe that due to increased expectations of another key rate hike, the gold correction will continue.

At the moment, Fed representatives maintain a hawkish stance, believing that this approach would make it easier to bring inflation under control and return it to the target of 2% in the future. This also affects possible upcoming rate moves. According to Fed officials, the rate has not yet reached a level that would allow a rollback of policy tightening.

In this situation, the precious metal is stalling, but some analysts are confident that it could increase. Currency strategists at Credit Suisse believe that gold will eventually reach new highs and rise above the $2,070-$2,075 levels achieved in 2020 and 2022.

According to Credit Suisse, the gold market will soar to new highs following the completion of the current range phase, facilitated by a decrease in real yields in the US. In this situation, exceeding $2,075 would indicate a bullish breakout, opening the way to a new target range of $2,330-$2,360.

Technical analysis indicates that gold is approaching the 50-day moving average. Experts say that stabilizing above this level solidified the gold rally at the end of 2022 and confirmed it in March 2023. At the same time, the 61.8% retracement level, which moved from March lows to early May highs, is located at $1,977 per ounce.

Experts estimate that gold should avoid a sharp drop below $1,980. Such a scenario would be an important signal of market sentiment change, pushing gold down to a critical level of $1,950 per ounce.

If gold stabilizes near current levels, then the next growth impulse will help it refresh historical highs. In this situation, the technical target for gold bulls will be $2,250, which was reached during the last two-month rally. The long-term target will be the ambitious level of $2,640, which may be reached within 12 months.

Experts believe the correction of the precious metal will continue if the likelihood of another Fed rate hike increases in June. The regulator's next meeting is scheduled for June 13-14. Most analysts (72%) expect the key rate to remain at 5%-5.25%, while some anticipate another increase by 25 basis points.

 

EUR/USD. Steep plunge: The pair has hit multi-week price lows

The EUR/USD pair is plunging across all pairs, developing a downtrend. The EUR/USD bears managed to overcome the support level of 1.0770 (the upper limit of the Kumo cloud on the daily chart) – this is a multi-week price low (since March 27). The next barrier is at the 1.0650 mark (Kijun-sen line on the weekly chart). The key fundamental factor, thanks to which the greenback is gaining momentum, is still in force, so the downtrend is unlikely to weaken by the end of the current week. This refers to the threat of default in the U.S. The threat is not diminishing, but on the contrary, it's becoming stronger and more tangible with each day.

The situation is contradictory. On the one hand, everyone understands that the parties will eventually come to an agreement, as has been the case year after year. On the other hand, the world press continues to escalate the situation, modeling catastrophic scenarios if the US were to default on the national debt for the first time in history. And although there is a low probability of this scenario, it cannot be completely ruled out. Therefore, the conditional probability of "0.0 (...) 1%" is taken quite seriously by the market, with all the ensuing consequences.

Threat of Default or Groundless Panic?

The dollar is a beneficiary of the current situation. Due to the rising panic in the markets, the greenback is in high demand, including in the EUR/USD pair. Recent events suggest that in the coming days, American politicians are unlikely to find common ground on the issue of raising the debt limit. At least because the main "negotiator" - Joe Biden - is currently at the G7 summit in Japan. And although the US president cut his schedule, canceling a visit to Australia, he won't return to the US until Saturday. Therefore, at least until the end of this week, the situation will remain in a state of limbo, allowing the dollar bulls to feel confident in all currency pairs. The EUR/USD pair will not be an exception here.

Before heading to Japan, Biden declared he is confident, saying talks with congressional Republicans have been productive. According to him, he will maintain close contact with them during the trip and will hold face-to-face negotiations upon arrival. The White House head also reassured journalists that the U.S. would not default on the national debt.

Judging by the dynamics of the greenback, market participants reacted skeptically to Biden's optimistic statements, partly because he voiced similar rhetoric last weekend, ahead of another failed negotiation round. The seriousness of the situation is also indicated by the fact that Biden unexpectedly canceled planned trips to Australia and Papua New Guinea.

Therefore, traders' skepticism, in my opinion, is quite justified, as the parties only declare their intentions to make a deal, but it is assumed that the corresponding conditions put forward will be met.

As we know, the Republicans claim that an increase in the spending limit can only take place on the condition of significant spending cuts. In particular, they propose cutting tax credits for the purchase of electric cars and the installation of solar panels, as well as reducing government spending on education loan repayment. Democrats, on the other hand, reject such proposals and insist on raising the debt limit without any preliminary conditions.

To date, the sides have not been able to find a compromise, and this fact is supporting the safe dollar.

Growth of Hawkish Expectations

It should be emphasized that the dollar is strengthening its positions not only due to growing risk-off sentiments. The recent statements by Fed officials, which had a "hawkish hue", also lent support to the greenback. Despite the slowdown in US inflation, many members of the Fed do not rule out further steps to tighten monetary policy. For instance, Dallas Fed's head Lorie Logan stated that the incoming data "supports a rate hike at the next meeting."

This position, in one interpretation or another, was voiced by other representatives of the US central bank – specifically, Loretta Mester, Thomas Barkin, Raphael Bostic, and John Williams.

The market reacted to the tightening of rhetoric accordingly: according to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-point rate hike at the June meeting is currently 32%. For comparison, it should be noted that at the beginning of May, the chances of realizing a 25-point scenario were estimated at 5-8%.

Conclusions

The US dollar continues to enjoy high demand – firstly, amid risk aversion, and secondly – due to the growth of hawkish expectations regarding the future actions of the Fed. Such fundamental conditions contribute to the development of a bearish trend. If the Republicans and Democrats do not surprise the markets with an unexpected compromise, then the EUR/USD pair will likely keep heading towards the base of the 7th figure, and further to the support level of 1.0650 (the Kijun-sen line on the weekly chart).