14 Apr 2024 Ludicrous Returns Stock Model Update

Discussion in 'General Trading Discussion' started by LudicrousReturns, Apr 15, 2024.

  1. LudicrousReturns

    LudicrousReturns Member

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    Stocks recently sold: NTGR, V, CDRE, CGNT, AAP, FATE, GWRE, HPK, IRTC, PRAX, SMG, SWIM, TPH
    4/8: V stock encountered a low model performance score as 10D joins the SP to cross below the 50D
    On 4/9, a model rule called SPP24B featured stop sells of 33.50 on CDRE and 7.07 on CGNT.
    On 4/10, a lot of sell triggers occurred, including AAP, FATE, GWRE, HPK, PRAX, SMG, and SWIM. AAP Sold at 76.50, just under the 76.62 stop sell order. GWRE, HPK, SMG, and SWIM featured bad stock pattern attributes, driving a sell. The 10D of PRAX stock featured a 10D decline angle that was less than 25 degrees from the vertical drawn one day prior to 4/10. This is an automatic sell under the stock model R4 rule.
    On 4/11, TPH featured an official 4-6 month horizontal pattern, driving a sell.

    Sell Now Triggers (4/12):
    AIRG, DIS, DKS, HRTX, IBM, NEU, NX, OSG, OUST, RELX, TNDM, TOST, UBER, UEIC

    Sell triggers: On 4/12, AIRG 200D average was $ 4.12. 1.5 months earlier on 3/1, the 200D was 4.07. The current 200D is only 1.2% above the former 1.5 month 200D. This triggers a sell rule on the Ludicrous Returns stock model.

    The other stocks are displaying bad pattern characteristics associated with a high probability of poor performance ahead. The technical analysis performance scores are surpassing the threshold and activating the sell now trigger. It’s better to sell now, let stocks correct and buy back in precarious times likes these.

    Stock Model Recent Buy Triggers:
    There were no new model buy triggers this past week. The opportunity for investing in stocks has diminished at this time.

    New Buy Now Triggers (4/12): No new buy triggers

    My Current Holdings (4/14)
    Updated stop sell orders calculated from technical analysis model output.
    Screenshot 2024-04-14 204002.jpg
    Quantity of current Holdings: 59
    Less: New Sells -14
    Plus: New Buys 0
    New Stock Quantity 45

    Ludicrous Stock Model Portfolio: 69.3% invested in stocks, and 30.7% in cash (prior to new sells / buys)

    Market Status Update Ludicrous Market timing model status is borderline green. It appears the S&P500 index 10D simple moving average is declining steep enough to drive caution. It is likely that within a day or two, the index 10D moving average will decline at a rate that is less than 30 degrees from the vertical, signaling a red zone for equity market index. The model does not purchase stocks in a red zone, and stop sell orders become more stringent. This could the start of a reset period for investing. While this sets up losses to recognize in the short term, the logic will help you have plenty of dry powder to invest on the next new up-turn. New buy triggers will then form.

    Happy Investing,
    Ludicrous Returns
     

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