2016 Market Forecasts

Discussion in 'General Trading Discussion' started by Rainman, Dec 1, 2015.

  1. Rainman

    Rainman Senior Investor

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    According to an article I read on lifehacker, 2016 is going to be a slow year for the stock market. Investors shouldn't panic, the bull market isn't over yet but they must brace themselves for "a modest year.

    http://twocents.lifehacker.com/prepare-for-slow-stock-market-growth-in-2016-1745149203
    Uncertainty about how markets respond to the first interest rate hike in nine years, commodity price weakness, and slow global growth are some of the things strategists have identified as potential headwinds for stocks and earnings.
     
  2. baudwalk

    baudwalk Senior Investor

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    IMHO Lifehacker isn't a go-to resource for investing or financial guidance, but the BI compilation doesn't surprise me. Many fund managers are struggling to stay even in 2015; various indicies reflect a flat market for the year. Consider the market chop as a long QE-stimulated bull run (nowhere else to put money) potentially nears the end of its run, commodity (e.g. oil, coal, copper and more) sluggishness, a new USA administration (e.g. budget, tax policies and more) taking office in 2016, and the continuing Middle East and international turmoil fueled by IS/ISUS/ISIL/Daesh. Obviously there are more variables to be considered, and granularity in all of this. It just says to me one must perform due diligence on potential investments, evaluate sectors and pay attention to world events. One cannot just throw a dart at a WSJ page of stock market prices and expect to make money.
     
  3. JR Ewing

    JR Ewing Super Moderator Staff Member

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    Some believe we could have a recession in '16. It's been about 7 years...
     
  4. ScooterBrandon

    ScooterBrandon Senior Investor

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    If Kristen Wong has such good market insights, I doubt she would be working as a content generator for lifehacker...
     
  5. crimsonghost747

    crimsonghost747 Senior Investor

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    Well yeah as the others have said this is definitely not a foolproof guidance for the year. Then again, what is?

    Obviously no one knows what's going to happen but yeah I do see quite a slow year for the markets.
    My guesses:
    -USD will keep strong, pushing down EPS for US based companies. They will of course survive but I'm not expecting huge gains.
    -Oil will rebound
    -Europe will continue to slide down the shitty slope they've put themselves in.
     
  6. 111kg

    111kg Guest

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    A lot of people I know, including my mentor, say that a recession occurs every 8 years in average, but in my opinion, it doesn't occur globally. It largely depends of a lot of factors, including the foreign economic policy of the main economic powers. For instance, of Germany/UK enters in recession, we can be sure that all the world will be affected, but if a country like mine (Romania) goes into recession, it won't affect a lot of other states, even though there are quite a lot of foreign investors in here.
     
  7. Onionman

    Onionman Senior Investor

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    It's a bit of a non-article really and, I could be wrong, but it doesn't really seem to be written by a finance person. Even the quote from Vanguard doesn't really say a great deal in terms of substance.

    As for general tone for next year, most analysts are expecting a moderate growth environment and as a result a fairly uninspired stock market. We'll just have to wait and see.
     
  8. 111kg

    111kg Guest

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    First of all, there is an ongoing crisis with the ISIS, that could potentially bring a massive shitstorm. There are already tensions between Turkey, Russia, US and so on. I think that it's pretty safe that nobody knows how will the markets react to the events that will happen next year, reason why these articles must never be trusted.
     
  9. Corzhens

    Corzhens Senior Investor

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    Pardon me for this negative comment but from what I know, spreading negative thoughts about the stock market before the start of the year is a usual thing. It is like a warning to brace up for something drastic that might the market. So I guess there is nothing to worry about. Besides, isn't it that the bull is very slow during the holiday season because the money of the people is used for buying gifts and some even sell their stocks for that purpose. Maybe it is better to be optimistic and observant as well.
     
  10. gracer

    gracer Senior Investor

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    I usually have this question in my mind every time the year ends, what's in store for business in the coming year? Would it be something positive or negative? I would usually get my answers after about the end of a quarter or even midway throughout the year. I guess we will never really know what happens in the market in the near future because a lot of unexpected factors can also affect it. It's really up to us to take the risk of investing the proper way and hoping that our money would gain more each and every year.
     

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