21 Apr 2024 Ludicrous Returns Stock Model Update

Discussion in 'General Trading Discussion' started by LudicrousReturns, Apr 21, 2024.

  1. LudicrousReturns

    LudicrousReturns Member

    Jan 2024
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    Stocks recently sold:

    On 4/12, AIRG 200D average was 4.07, which is 1.2% less than the 200D of 4.12 on 3/1 (6 weeks prior). When a stock 200D change over 6 weeks is less than +/- 1.5%, it is an action to sell on the Ludicrous stock model. UEIC triggered the 200D flat sell rule on 4/12 as well.
    CLS sold at the last weeks stop sell price target of 43.47 on 4/16 (Model rule R75 rule).
    COIN sold at price target 236.71.
    CRH sold at 76.72 on 4/18.
    Pretty much all the other stocks on the list sold at their designated stop sell rules.

    DIS, DKS, HRTX, IBM, NX, OSG, OUST, TSN, & UBER had stock patterns that deteriorated to a technical analysis level activating a sell. One of the things that helped nail in the casket for IBM, OSG and UBER is the 10D line declining and crossing below the 50-Day average line. UBER had a good run. The model purchased uber at 50.04 after buy was triggered on 11/7/23. I sold the stock at market open on 4/16 after the 10D declined below the 50D.

    MNMD, I may have missed the sell signal on this one. This was first evident on 4/12, when the stock price declined to a low of 9.67, which is an 11.3% decline from the former stock price peak of 10.90. This is the second sharp stock price spike-like decline that declined greater than 10% from peak to low in a 3-month period. The other occurred on 3/12/24, where the closing low of 7.86 represented a 19.0% decline from former peak of 9.70.

    MOD sold on 4/17 at a price of 86.09 under one of my favorite stock model rules, the R75 rule. This stock had a very good run, the buy trigger occurred on 11/9/23, with the model buying the stock at a price of 43.28 (market open on 11/10). The return on this stock investment is + 98.9%. That’s the thing I like about the R75 sell rule, it was configured to help retain profits earned before a stock quickly declines. We’ll see when the model says to buy back this great stock, which specializes in cooling systems for EV batteries. A little digging in the auto industry, you can find that battery cooling is a big challenge to help keep EV batteries safe and prevent over-temping. MOD is the perfect company for battery cooling solutions.

    NEU also deteriorated as the 10D declined below the 50D. Another negative factor, there are 3 10-D average sine wave peaks in a 4- month period.

    OUST: On 4/15, the 10D declined at an angle that is less than 25 degrees from a vertical line drawn on former trading day 4/15. When this occurs, the rule is to sell next market day open, or in this case sell at 7.48 (4/16 market open). Note, for stocks, the threshold is less than 25 degrees from vertical axis line. For the S&P500 index, the 10D decline less than 30 degrees is the threshold for a market equity index red zone.

    Sell Now Triggers (4/19): AA, VMC, ZWS
    Stock Model Rule SPP23, which is a consolidated technical analysis performance score, is driving a sell to these three stocks. The threshold for selling these stocks increases when market status is red. The model will only retain the stocks with the most technical strength in stock patterns when the market is in a red status.

    Stock Model Recent Buy Triggers:
    There were no new model buy triggers this past week.

    New Buy Now Triggers (4/19): No new buy triggers. As of Friday 4/19, the S&P500 symbol ^GSPC 10-day simple moving average was declining at a rate that is less than 20 degrees from vertical axis line. This is by definition a red zone status on the Ludicrous Market timing model. The rule is to not buy any stocks in a red zone.

    My Current Holdings (4/19)
    These are the stocks that are left after several stocks achieved their sell triggers. Updated stop sell orders calculated from technical analysis model output.
    Portfolio 2024-04-21.jpg

    Quantity of current Holdings: 28
    Less: New Sells -3
    Plus: New Buys 0
    New Stock Quantity 25

    Ludicrous Stock Model Portfolio: 36.2% invested in stocks, and 63.8% in cash (prior to new sells)

    Market Status Update Ludicrous Market timing model status is RED. For portfolios with equity index funds, the market timing model repositions out of equity index funds and into cash. Until the market flashes a yellow or a green status again. I will send an update when the market timing model repositions back from cash and into equity.

    Happy Investing,
    Ludicrous Returns

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