Analysis vs Instinct

Discussion in 'Stock Market Education' started by Dejik, Feb 16, 2015.

  1. Dejik

    Dejik Active Member

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    How much weighting do people put on intuition and how much do they put on analysis when considering additions to their portfolio?
     
  2. Fredrick Jones

    Fredrick Jones Well-Known Member

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    You should do a good analysis to start with, from there most times you will be able to see a clear choice of action. If the results of the analysis are not clear, then you can rely on instinct. Usually people who fly by the seat of their pants, initally they might do well, but eventually they crash and burn. They will take larger and larger risks.
     
  3. missbishi

    missbishi Well-Known Member

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    I think intuition only really comes with experience anyhow. It's far more beneficial to pay attention to the markets for a while before making any decisions - get to know the fluctuations and the past performance of companies. Decisions get easier to make once you have a greater understanding of things.
     
  4. queenbellevue

    queenbellevue Well-Known Member

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    ANALYSIS!! Unless you're Warren Buffet, rely on data, not your gut. Most of the time, you'll do well if you stick with analysis. I've seen my dad follow his gut and lose like 20k, so don't go down that path!!
     
  5. Gelsemium

    Gelsemium Senior Investor

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    Yep, analysis is the key to success here, it's not gambling, it's a well thought out and rational decision, well based, after all that 1% instinct can enter.
     
  6. crimsonghost747

    crimsonghost747 Senior Investor

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    Analysis. The more feelings get involved, the less rational your decisions will be. Sometimes you might get lucky with instinct but in the long run I think it's best to try and filter out personal preference and rely on the facts.
     
  7. owesem75

    owesem75 Well-Known Member

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    I would say, ANALYSIS wins over instinct.. we can only trust our instinct for things unknown... but in the stock market, data are given and it's free to look at.. so why NOT check and read the data for better analysis and decision.
     
  8. My401K

    My401K Well-Known Member

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    If you are making your investing decisions on intuition you might as well go to Vegas and throw your money down on a flip of the cards. The result would be about the same. Interestingly enough when people do start to let their "feelings" get involved is when the stock starts to go bad. Ever hear the term throwing good money after bad? well thats when an investor gets it in their head that the thing to do would be to get even more shares of a dog because they just know (feel) it is going to take off. Not a great way to secure your future. To be quite blunt I don't think analysis, technical or otherwise is really much better. Investing is speculative, you can try to increase your odds but there is no guarantees.
     
  9. queenbellevue

    queenbellevue Well-Known Member

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    Well, to be fair I don't think the odds would be as bad as Vegas, where the house wins like 99% of the time. The market I think is not ACTIVELY against you. I do agree that analysis is the way to go though
     
  10. Rainman

    Rainman Senior Investor

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    You'd need to be a psychic or someone who can tell the future for you to trust your instinct. Saying you'd trust your instinct can be likened to gambling and you know how that works. You might lose or win. While obviously there's some risk involved in trading, to increase your odds of making some money you need to analyze the market, the trends, etc or else lose a lot of money.
     

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