Yeah, that's what I think too Rainman, this is not gambling, it's a science of analyses and if we do our job properly we will be rewarded, so I don't think instinct plays a role here.
Analysis - research and education from reputable sources, etc. You'll find that experience will be a great tool as well eventually. But emotions - fear, greed, ego, etc - should be controlled. A healthy dose of fear will keep you from losing your ass, but too much of it will paralyze you. Greed is what gets me out of bed in the morning and keeps me going, but I have to keep it tightly controlled to keep from losing my ass. I've got a pretty healthy ego, but it has nothing to do with investing and needs to be checked at the door every morning.
Definitely, my dad pretty much gambled away like 10 grand on the stock market due to his large freakin ego.
I learned a long time ago that the market is bigger and more powerful than I'll ever be - and that even goes for the biggest and smartest investors and institutions. I also learned a long time ago that there's much I don't know and will never know, that I can learn something from just about everyone, and that there are people smarter than me whose opinions and advice I should at least consider.
Logic over emotion every time. However to completely disregard instincts is a mistake. Instincts can provide you an early warning sign. If a position seems weak, not doing what you had expected, outlook becomes murky, doesn't hurt to cut the position and reevaluate when things become more clear.
I would say as an elder that I only use 100% analysis, but if I am being completely honest I do use about 10% gut feeling. I believe sometimes you have to go with what your gut is telling you, or else you may miss out. Life is worth the risk. Good luck my brother.
I don't like to play hazard so I base my decisions to my analysis. This gives me some more confident while I have to by and sell stocks but doesn't give me the assurance that this will be a good deal thus lucky is also an important point in my opinion.
I think facts and statistics plays a bigger role than just gut instinct for most people. Anything I invest in seriously, then I will always go off the statistics and projections I'll have drawn up for me, most of the time I gain, like everybody though, you expect some losses along the way. When it comes to a bit of fun, I might like to go off instinct for certain investments but these are definitely only the small time things, things that I'm not too bothered about walking away with nothing out of.
You need to listen to your instinct. If your instinct is nagging you about an investment decision then it means you haven't done enough analysis!
