Simply put, are there any commodities you consistently and/or as rule avoid? Why so? Thanks for sharing.
I can't say that I would avoid a particular commodity as a rule. Opportunities abound in several markets. One day its orange juice futures; the next it could be lumber. I would advise all traders/speculators in the commodities markets to avoid taking on risky positions and look for those situations which look as much like a sure thing as you can find. They are out there.
I do not think it is wise to really avoid anything. I believe it is best to take everything in stride and make sure that you see the loss and profit from each of them in the right manner. Make sure that you will take care of your business in the right manner by managing your business.
Silver is something that I avoid. I don't think it will ever go up in price. It is like the cheapest precious metal ever and nobody wants it.
I tend to avoid all commodities as I'm not one that plays the futures and forwards markets, and these are the more obvious ways to play them. Obviously there are other ways to play certain ones (e.g. ETFs or stocks of companies that extract the commodity). But it's never been an area that I have specialized in so I tend to invest less of my time looking at it.
I avoid any stock or commodity that is very dependent on the weather. If you are playing orange juice, you are better on sunny days with just the right amount of rain. I also don´t like silver... it is kinda a middle ground commodity. Gold is an inflation play, copper is all about construction and growth... silver is just in the middle. I did mess with pork bellys one time with a little bit of money... just so I could talk about it.. nothing sounds funnier than talking about investing in pork belly futures.
While I wouldn't say I outright avoid it, silver is something that doesn't really appear that attractive nor have any potential. Obviously it's not as expensive or valuable as gold. But also it's not like copper or platinum or palladium which seem to always have industrial uses as well as consumer goods. There really isn't a demand for silver and I think there are better opportunities elsewhere.
I'd say that novices with limited funds should stick to the better unlevered ETFs for commodities exposure, rather than try to gamble on futures. This is particularly true for the lesser known and more volatile and cyclical commodities. And you probably want to generally limit commodities exposure to a pretty small overall portion of your portfolio. You could take physical possession of some commodities, but that also is generally not without complications for most commodities.