Can you believe that at this moment the Dow is near the 18,000 mark?

Just remember in percentage terms this isn't such a big climb in the DOW. The Dow going up from 3,000 to 6,000 between 1991 and 1996 was a 50% move. The index would have to hit 36,000 to achieve similar results over the next five years. That would be amazing. The market today is simply letting the world know that the U.S. economy is alive and well after all.

 

I stand corrected this was a 100% move in the DOW between 1991 and 1996. Truly a phenomenal time to be investing in the U.S. stock market. I suppose we won't see that again. However, if we do my advice is to get out early. Investors who stuck around past 2000 got slammed by the dot.com bubble burst.

 

The really amazing part about that climb from 91-96 is that it was at a time when there were no tech stocks in the Dow Industrial Average. The Dow at that point was old, industrial type companies so a lot of the really big winners during 91-96 weren´t even reflected in that 100% gain. I owned Microsoft during that era ( was the first stock I ever bought) and it basically doubled every 18 months.

 

We've definitely seen a lot of support from the Fed, which won't last forever. We will see a reversal in the low interest rate environment at some point. It all depends on whether higher interest rates cause shocks and a collapse in the stock market, or a softer landing all round. I'm guessing the market will be very volatile but we'll see sentiment stabilize.

 

Yes, but there is no reason the fed will need to raise interest rates unless there is a real fear of inflation, and oil prices play a huge role in keeping inflation under control. Transportation plays a huge role in the price of basically everything commodity sold.. from food to appliances to housing. Low oil prices makes everything cheaper, which means no risk of inflation, which means no reason for the fed to raise interest rates.

 

Well you give a reason why the Saudis are not only not increasing production, but publicly stating they are not going to increase production for the foreseeable future? Not only are they not trying to support oil prices, they are actually making public statements designed to push prices even lower. It is obvious they are doing the USA a favor in order to help thwart Putin. Everything they had done and said in the past 6 months is totally uncharacteristic for them. There has to be a political component to it. Like I said, I am guessing pretty soon some defense contractor is going to be given the green light to sell the next generation planes to the Saudis or something like that.