An improvement in US consumer confidence suggests that the US economy is finally improving from its lethargic start this year. The consumer sentiment index is at its record breaking high of 96.1 in June which is 16.5% higher than last year. Here's a link to the story: http://fortune.com/2015/06/26/consumer-confidence-soars-to-5-month-high/
yeah... I saw this and it pretty much cements an interest rate hike at the next fed meeting, it is too big of a jump and it translates into durable good orders and factory orders, the fed will act.
This is a lagging indicator, I would have loved to have seen what people were actually buying. I would not be the least bit surprised if it was essential products. It would make sense with the terrible weather we have had this spring. My thinking is this is just a blip that has been caused more by the volatile weather conditions then actual consumer confidence. When your house is getting washed away or your freezing from a ridiculous arctic cold front it is not to far fetched to think there would be some people forced to buy things out of necessity. Judging from some of the prices I saw at the grocery today any leisure buying will no doubt be short lived. the price of household staples have shot way up.
A lagging indicator of what? Consumer confidence is usually considered a leading indicator because people become confident in the economy and their ability to buy stuff, then they actually buy it. When factories see consumer confidence rising, they increase production to make sure produce is there for the buyers. The auto industry in particular adjusts production based on the latest consumer confidence numbers. It is usually a very early indicator of inflation.
People are just a little more smarter of where they spend their money these days. Instead of buying a whole lot of meaningless garbage, we are tending to spend more money on what we really want and things that will last us a long time, at least this is how I am spending my money these days. Instead of going to Walmart and buying 5 cheap shirts, I will take that money and buy a high quality shirt from a nice store. I just hope everyone does not sink into their old ways of buying everything they see just because they can.
