USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.12.2024 Time Zone: GMT +3 Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4) Fundamental Analysis: The USD/CAD forex pair represents the exchange rate between the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar, with both economies being heavily influenced by commodity prices, particularly oil. Recently, the U.S. dollar has experienced some fluctuations due to upcoming U.S. economic reports, such as unemployment claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI), both of which are crucial for gauging inflation and labor market conditions. For Canada, today’s focus is on oil inventories and the performance of the Canadian economy, heavily tied to global oil prices. Any unexpected movements in oil prices can have a direct impact on the Canadian dollar. As of now, the pair is in a tight range as traders await these key economic releases, with cautious sentiment dominating the market. Price Action: In terms of price action, the USD CAD pair has shown an upward trend over the past few sessions but is currently consolidating. It recently retraced from the upper Bollinger Band and has now touched the middle band, which appears to act as support. The last two candles are bullish, indicating potential upward momentum. However, the presence of the Parabolic SAR dots above the price suggests caution, as this can indicate selling pressure. The price is fluctuating between the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels, with resistance near the 23.6% level. A break above this level could signal a continuation of the upward trend. Key Technical Indicators: Bollinger Bands: The price has moved from the upper band towards the middle band, which is acting as a dynamic support. Currently, the price is showing signs of a potential bounce as the last two candles have turned bullish, indicating that the middle Bollinger Band has provided temporary support. Parabolic SAR: The last three Parabolic SAR points are positioned above the candles, which signals potential downward pressure. However, since the price is still holding above key support levels, traders should watch for a reversal signal if the dots shift below the price. MACD: The MACD indicator is currently showing weakening bullish momentum. The histogram is positive but shrinking, indicating that while the uptrend remains, momentum has slowed. A potential bearish crossover could occur if this trend continues, signaling a potential downside move. %R (Williams %R): The %R is currently around -61, indicating that the market is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral level suggests there is still room for price action to go either way, depending on market sentiment and upcoming fundamental factors. Support and Resistance Levels: Support: Immediate support can be seen near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level around 1.3550, followed by more substantial support near the 50% Fibonacci level at 1.3520. Resistance: The nearest resistance is the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3590. A successful breach of this level could pave the way toward the next resistance at 1.3630, which coincides with the recent swing highs. Conclusion and Consideration: The USD-CAD pair is showing mixed signals on the H4 chart. While the price action indicates a possible continuation of the upward trend after bouncing off the middle Bollinger Band, the technical indicators such as the Parabolic SAR and weakening MACD suggest caution. Traders should closely monitor the price’s behavior around the 23.6% Fibonacci level for a potential breakout, while also keeping an eye on upcoming economic releases for both the U.S. and Canada. With upcoming news such as U.S. unemployment claims and Canadian oil inventories, volatility can be expected, which could further influence the pair's direction. Disclaimer: This analysis is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is important to stay informed of the latest developments. FXGlory 09.12.2024
EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.13.2024 Time Zone: GMT +3 Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4) Fundamental Analysis: Today, the EUR/USD forex pair is influenced by key economic data releases from both the Eurozone and the US. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from INSEE and the industrial production data from Eurostat are likely to set the tone for the Euro, reflecting the inflation rate and manufacturing output within the region. On the US side, the Import Price Index and consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan are critical, as they provide early insights into inflation and consumer confidence. A higher-than-expected CPI or industrial output reading in the Eurozone could boost the Euro, while strong import price data or positive consumer sentiment in the US would likely strengthen the USD, adding pressure on the EURUSD pair. Price Action: In the H4 timeframe, the EUR/USD pair shows a clear bullish trend after rebounding from the 1.1010 level. The price moved from the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, crossing the middle band, and now has reached the upper band, indicating strong bullish momentum. The recent five candles show steady upward movement, as the pair broke through the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels and is now testing the 50.0% level. If the pair manages to breach this key resistance level, it could move towards the 61.8% or even the 100% Fibonacci retracement level, though a failure to break through 50.0% may signal a potential retracement to the previous support levels. Key Technical Indicators: Bollinger Bands: The price has moved from the lower half of the Bollinger Bands and is now touching the upper band, which reflects strong bullish momentum. The widening of the bands suggests increasing volatility in the market. Parabolic SAR: The last five Parabolic SAR dots are placed below the candles, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. As long as the dots stay below the price action, bullish momentum is expected to persist. MACD: The MACD line is approaching the signal line from below, suggesting a potential bullish crossover. This would confirm the upward momentum if the crossover occurs, signaling continued buying pressure. Williams %R: Currently, the %R is around -0.39, indicating the price is in bullish territory but not yet overbought. There is still room for upward movement before hitting extreme levels. Support and Resistance: Support Levels: 1.1055 (23.6% Fibonacci), 1.1030, and 1.1010 (recent low). Resistance Levels: 1.1087 (50.0% Fibonacci), 1.1115 (61.8% Fibonacci), and 1.1150 (100.0% Fibonacci). Conclusion and Consideration: The EUR USD pair is currently in an uptrend on the H4 chart, with strong bullish signals from both technical indicators and price action. If the pair can break above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level, it is likely to continue higher towards the 61.8% level. However, if resistance at the 50.0% level holds, a pullback toward the 38.2% level is possible, where previous support levels may provide a buying opportunity. Traders should keep an eye on today’s fundamental data releases, as they could lead to increased volatility and confirm the direction of the pair. Disclaimer: The provided EUR-USD analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to conduct thorough research before making any trading decisions. FXGlory 09.13.2024
GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.16.2024 Time Zone: GMT +3 Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4) Fundamental Analysis: The GBP/USD pair is facing mixed market conditions today as the U.S. dollar is influenced by the release of the New York Manufacturing Index, which serves as a leading indicator of U.S. economic health. A higher-than-forecast reading would likely support the U.S. dollar. Meanwhile, in the UK, the Rightmove House Price Index (HPI) is in focus, which measures the change in asking prices for homes. Although the housing sector is less correlated to actual selling prices, it provides an early look into market conditions. With U.S. economic data expected to drive the dollar and UK housing data potentially offering limited support for the pound, traders can expect GBP/USD volatility today. Price Action: In the GBPUSD H4 chart, we observe an upward trend, with the price currently trading between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. This signals a continuation of the upward movement after a recent pullback. The GBPUSD price action shows bullish momentum as it attempts to break higher levels, with candles forming higher lows in the last few sessions. The pair appears to be trading within a rising channel, indicating further potential upside if support levels hold. Key Technical Indicators: Short SMA (9): The short-term moving average has crossed above the long-term moving average (SMA 17), suggesting bullish momentum in the medium term. Long SMA (17): The long SMA shows gradual upward movement, reinforcing the continuation of the bullish trend as the price action respects this indicator as a dynamic support. MACD: The MACD histogram shows growing bullish momentum, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line. This supports the possibility of further upward movement as buying pressure increases. Volumes: Recent volume data shows increased buying interest, supporting the recent price surge. However, traders should watch for potential exhaustion if volume starts to decline. Support and Resistance: Support: The immediate support level is at 1.3070 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement), with a stronger base at 1.3040, aligning with the lower boundary of the channel. Resistance: Key resistance stands at 1.3160 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), followed by 1.3240, which marks the 100% Fibonacci extension. Conclusion and Consideration: GBP/USD continues to display bullish momentum, supported by technical indicators like the SMA crossover and MACD’s positive trend. With key support levels holding, the pair is likely to continue its upward trajectory. However, U.S. data releases could play a crucial role in determining the dollar’s strength, which might influence this trend. Traders should monitor upcoming news for both GBP and USD to gauge potential market reactions, particularly if the U.S. data exceeds forecasts. Disclaimer: This GBP-USD analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it’s important for traders to conduct their own research before making any trading decisions. Always consider market volatility and news events before entering any trade. FXGlory 09.16.2024
NZD/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.17.2024 Time Zone: GMT +3 Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4) Fundamental Analysis: Today's NZD/USD performance is expected to be influenced by both US and New Zealand economic data. On the US side, several key reports, such as Retail Sales and Factory Output, are scheduled. Strong retail sales data could reinforce expectations of higher US interest rates, boosting the USD. Conversely, weak sales data might support a dovish outlook for the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President is also scheduled to speak, and any hawkish remarks might further strengthen the USD. On the New Zealand side, the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction report is due, a critical factor since dairy products play a significant role in New Zealand's export economy. Positive data from the GDT auction could lend some support to the NZD. Price Action: In the H4 time frame, the NZD USD pair shows signs of a recovery after a previous downtrend. The price action has been bullish in recent sessions, with 7 out of the last 10 candles closing higher. The recent retracement is bouncing off the 38.2% Fibonacci level and approaching the 50.0% level. This indicates that the pair is regaining strength after a short pullback, signaling potential bullish continuation. Key Technical Indicators: MA Short (9): The short-term 9-period moving average has crossed above the 17-period long moving average, suggesting that upward momentum is building. MA Long (17): The 17-period moving average is now acting as dynamic support, confirming that bullish momentum is gaining strength. The crossover is a classic sign of trend reversal, which aligns with the recent bullish price action. MACD (12,26,9): The MACD line is currently above the signal line, indicating a bullish trend in place. However, the histogram shows slight divergence, suggesting that momentum may slow down in the short term. Traders should monitor closely for any potential bearish crossover, which could signal a trend reversal. DeMarker (14): The DeMarker indicator currently stands at 0.52, indicating that the market is in a neutral zone with no overbought or oversold conditions. This leaves room for further upward movement before approaching overbought levels, which could support the ongoing bullish trend. Support and Resistance Levels: Support: Immediate support is at 0.6155, aligning with the 38.2% Fibonacci level, followed by 0.6100 as a key psychological level. Resistance: The first resistance is at 0.6200 near the 50.0% Fibonacci level, with the next level at 0.6230 at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Conclusion and Consideration: The NZD/USD pair is exhibiting bullish momentum on the H4 chart, supported by positive price action and a moving average crossover. However, key fundamental events for both the USD and NZD are scheduled for today, which could introduce volatility. A breakout above the 50.0% Fibonacci level could trigger a continuation of the uptrend, while bearish data from the US might cap gains or lead to a reversal. It is crucial to monitor the upcoming Retail Sales data and GDT auction results, as these will provide further direction for the pair. Disclaimer: The NZDUSD analysis provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly, and traders should conduct their own research and stay updated with the latest developments before making trading decisions. FXGlory 09.17.2024
AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.18.2024 Time Zone: GMT +3 Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4) Fundamental Analysis: Upcoming economic data releases from the US and Australia are significant for understanding potential movements in the AUD/USD pair. From the US, the focus is on the Federal Funds Rate, which is expected to increase from 5.25% to 5.50%. Such a hike could strengthen the USD as higher interest rates usually attract foreign capital. Additionally, the FOMC Economic Projections and Statement will provide deeper insights into future monetary policy, which could sway market sentiment significantly. The TIC Long-Term Purchases, indicating foreign investments, jumped from 54.9B to an expected 96.1B, reflecting a robust interest in US financial assets. From Australia, the Employment Change is set to show a sharp rise from 26.4K to 58.2K, suggesting strong job market conditions, which could bolster the AUD. The Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.2%, supporting a stable economic outlook in Australia. Price Action: The AUD/USD price shows a consolidation above the Ichimoku cloud on the H4 chart, indicating a bullish sentiment in the near term. The RSI is above 50 but not yet in the overbought territory, suggesting there is room for upward movement without immediate reversal risks. The Stochastic indicator hints at the end of a bearish phase, potentially signaling an upcoming bullish crossover. Key Technical Indicators: RSI: Hovering above 50,ing towards potential upward movements. Stochastic: Indicating the exhaustion of bearish momentum with a possible bullish turn ahead. Ichimoku Cloud: The price residing above the cloud supports bullish dominance, suggesting potential further upsides. Support and Resistance: Support Levels: The nearest support level is found just above the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud at 0.6600. A drop below this level could lead to further bearish corrections towards 0.6550. Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is observed at the downward trend line from the recent correction phase. A decisive breakout above 0.6750 could reaffirm the bullish trend, aiming for the next resistance at 0.6800. Conclusion and Consideration: The AUD/USD H4 chart points to a bullish continuation as long as the price remains above the Ichimoku cloud. The anticipated breakout above the current descending trend line could usher in renewed bullish momentum. Traders should closely monitor the forthcoming economic data from both the US and Australia, as these will likely drive short-term price action and confirm or adjust the current bullish outlook. Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. FXGlory 09.18.2024
GBPAUD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.19.2024 Time Zone: GMT +3 Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4) Fundamental Analysis: The GBPAUD pair represents the British Pound (GBP) against the Australian Dollar (AUD), both of which are influenced by central bank policies and global economic conditions. Today, the GBP faces significant news with the release of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Summary and voting breakdown, which could provide insight into the central bank's stance on interest rates. Hawkish sentiments from the Bank of England could strengthen the GBP, leading to potential bullish momentum. On the AUD side, employment data and the unemployment rate are key market-moving events for today. Better-than-expected Australian employment figures could bolster the AUD, adding downward pressure on the pair. Both currencies are subject to central bank guidance and economic data, making today critical for GBP AUD price movements. Price Action: On the H4 timeframe, the GBP/AUD pair is currently showing bearish tendencies, as seen from the last two candles that have declined. The price is trading between the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement levels, indicating potential support near the 50.0% level. The GBPAUD Price action shows movement toward the lower half of the Bollinger Bands after briefly touching the middle band. This suggests a potential downward continuation. If the price breaks below the 50.0% Fibonacci level, we could see further bearish momentum. Key Technical Indicators: Bollinger Bands: The price has been moving from the lower band toward the middle band but is currently heading back toward the lower band. This indicates a bearish move, with volatility expected to increase as the price approaches the lower Bollinger Band. If the price remains in the lower half of the bands, it may continue on a downward path. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is showing decreasing momentum, with the MACD line slightly below the signal line. This suggests bearish momentum is building, and traders should watch for a potential continuation of the downward trend if the MACD crosses further below the signal line. DeMarker (DeM) (14): The DeMarker indicator currently sits at 0.260, which is below the neutral zone, indicating that the pair is nearing oversold conditions. While this suggests that the selling pressure could slow down, it also signals that there may be room for further bearish movement before a possible reversal. Support and Resistance Levels: Support: Immediate support is found at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level at approximately 1.9502. Further support can be seen near the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.9440. Resistance: Immediate resistance is near the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 1.9562. Stronger resistance lies at 1.9600, aligning with the upper Bollinger Band. Conclusion and Consideration: In conclusion, the GBP AUD pair on the H4 chart shows signs of bearish momentum with the price moving toward the lower half of the Bollinger Bands and declining MACD momentum. The DeM indicator nearing oversold territory signals potential for a short-term reversal, but the overall bearish outlook remains dominant. Traders should watch key support and resistance levels, particularly around the 50.0% and 38.2% Fibonacci levels, for signs of a breakout or reversal. With important economic data releases from both the UK and Australia, heightened volatility is expected, making it crucial for traders to monitor these indicators closely. Disclaimer: The GBPAUD H4 provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Traders should perform their own analysis and consider market conditions before making any trading decisions. Markets can change rapidly, and staying updated with the latest news is essential for successful trading. FXGlory 09.19.2024
USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.20.2024 Time Zone: GMT +3 Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4) Fundamental Analysis: The USD/CAD forex pair is influenced today by key fundamental events from both the U.S. and Canada. In the U.S., the market anticipates remarks from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker at Tulane University. Traders will be watching for any hawkish signals regarding future monetary policy, which could strengthen the USD. On the Canadian side, Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem is scheduled to speak at the National Bureau of Economic Research conference in Toronto. His commentary could provide insights into future interest rate policies, impacting the CAD. Additionally, the release of retail sales data and industrial product prices from Canada could drive market volatility depending on how the actual figures align with market forecasts. Price Action: In the H4 timeframe, USDCAD has been trading in a range between 1.3500 and 1.3650 over the past few sessions, indicating consolidation after a bullish recovery. The price attempted to break out above 1.3650 but failed, pulling back toward the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The recent candles suggest indecision as the price hovers near the 1.3565 level. This area has acted as a key pivot zone over the past few sessions, reflecting the current battle between bulls and bears. Key Technical Indicators: Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands on the USD/CAD H4 chart have widened, signaling increased volatility. The price has moved toward the lower band after touching the upper band near 1.3650, indicating a potential downward pressure. However, the price remains within the bands, suggesting the market is not yet oversold. Traders should watch for a breakout of the bands to signal the next directional move. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD indicator shows a weakening bullish momentum, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line and the histogram in negative territory. This bearish crossover signals a possible continuation of the downside momentum unless the MACD can reverse and move back above the signal line. However, the low distance between the lines suggests the trend could reverse if fundamentals support USD strength. DeMarker (DeM 14): The DeMarker (DeM) indicator sits at 0.429, indicating potential oversold conditions. This suggests that there might be some buying interest soon if the indicator starts to rise. However, for now, the DeM signals that the downside pressure could continue in the near term unless a reversal occurs. Support and Resistance: Support: Immediate support for USDCAD is at 1.3565, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the recent price pivot. If the pair breaks below this, the next key support is at 1.3500, a psychological level that has historically acted as a strong barrier. Resistance: Immediate resistance is found at 1.3640, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and marks the upper boundary of recent price action. A breakout above this level could push the pair toward 1.3695, the 50% retracement level, where further resistance may be encountered. Conclusion and Consideration: The USD-CAD pair is currently in a consolidation phase after failing to break above the 1.3640 resistance level. With technical indicators pointing toward slight bearish momentum and upcoming key fundamental events, the pair could face heightened volatility. Traders should closely monitor the speeches from the Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada governors, as these could provide clues on future interest rate decisions and drive price action. A break above 1.3640 would confirm a bullish breakout, while a move below 1.3560 could see the pair targeting 1.3500. Disclaimer: The USD CAD analysis provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading in the foreign exchange market involves significant risk, and it is essential for traders to conduct their research and stay updated with market conditions before making any trading decisions. FXGlory 09.20.2024
GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.23.2024 Time Zone: GMT +3 Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4) Fundamental Analysis: The GBP/USD news analysis today shows that it continues to experience volatility amid global economic uncertainties. Recent PMI data releases from the UK show manufacturing sector contraction, as indicated by S&P Global’s latest surveys, with figures below 50, signaling economic slowdown. This data puts pressure on the British Pound, particularly as concerns about the UK's economic resilience persist. Meanwhile, for the USD, market participants are keenly focused on the speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including Raphael Bostic and Austan Goolsbee, who are expected to provide insights into future monetary policy and interest rate adjustments. With key economic indicators such as inflation and PMI set to influence the pair’s forecast today, traders are advised to monitor the upcoming GBP/USD fundamental releases closely for any signs of economic recovery or further contraction in both the UK and the US. Price Action: The GBP USD H4 chart reveals a clear upward channel for the pair also known as the “Cable,” with its price action making higher highs and higher lows. The pair is currently approaching key resistance levels near 1.3290 and 1.3326, following a steady uptrend since early September. The pair’s candlesticks reflect strong buying interest, as its bullish market sentiment drives the price upward. However, it is crucial to watch for potential reversals if the price fails to break through the established resistance. Key Technical Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud: The price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a strong bullish trend. The cloud is thin, suggesting limited resistance ahead, but traders should remain cautious if the price dips towards the cloud for potential reversals. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is hovering around 67.67, indicating that the pair is nearing overbought territory. This suggests the possibility of a pullback or consolidation before any further upward moves. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic is also in the overbought region at 75.25, reinforcing the likelihood of a short-term correction as the market approaches resistance levels. Support and Resistance: Support Levels: Immediate support can be found at 1.3261, which aligns with the lower boundary of the upward channel. A break below this level could lead to further downside, with the next support around 1.3180. Resistance Levels: The pair faces key resistance at 1.3290, followed by a stronger resistance level at 1.3326. A breakout above these levels could propel the pair towards higher highs in the coming sessions. Conclusion and Consideration: he GBP/USD technical outlook today is exhibiting strong bullish momentum on the pair’s H4 chart, supported by favorable technical indicators. However, the RSI and Stochastic suggest the pair is nearing overbought conditions, which could result in a brief correction or consolidation around key resistance levels. The GBPUSD fundamental factors, such as the upcoming PMI data for both the UK and US, along with Federal Reserve speeches, will play a critical role in determining the pair's next direction. Traders are advised to exercise caution, especially with the Cable’s volatility surrounding key economic releases. Implementing solid risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders near support levels, will help mitigate risk in this volatile trading environment. Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. FXGlory 09.23.2024
AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.24.2024 Time Zone: GMT +3 Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4) Fundamental Analysis: The AUD/USD pair is currently influenced by critical economic events. Earlier today, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained its cash rate at 4.35%, which was anticipated by the market, accompanied by the RBA Rate Statement and subsequent Press Conference. These factors are crucial in shaping the Australian dollar's direction against United States’ Dollar. The RBA’s stance was seen as relatively neutral, keeping future rate hikes uncertain. Meanwhile, on the USD side, significant events like the upcoming FOMC member Bowman’s speech and data releases, such as the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y (5.9%, below the expected 6.5%) and the CB Consumer Confidence report, are likely to weigh on the US dollar’s performance. With the U.S. data releases showing mixed results, traders are closely monitoring the market for any clues on future Fed policy moves. Price Action: The AUD/USD H4 chart today shows a correction following a bullish rally. The price has now moved lower, testing a key support zone, indicating a consolidation phase. The Bollinger Bands show a sharp decline in volatility, with the price touching the lower band, suggesting the potential for a short-term bounce. However, the pair remains under pressure as both fundamental and technical factors point to a cautious sentiment. If AUD/USD breaks below current support, further downside may be expected, while holding above could see the pair attempt a recovery. Key Technical Indicators: Bollinger Bands: The price is currently hugging the lower Bollinger Band, indicating a possible oversold condition in the short term. A contraction in the bands suggests lower volatility, signaling that a breakout might be imminent. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is in bearish territory, with the MACD line below the signal line. The histogram is also below zero, supporting the bearish outlook. This indicates a potential for further downside if momentum doesn't shift soon. DeM (DeMarker Indicator): The DeMarker indicator is currently reading at 0.334, signaling that the pair may be in an oversold condition, which could indicate a short-term bullish reversal if buyers step in at current levels. Support and Resistance: Support Levels: The immediate support is at 1.35000, aligning with a key psychological level. A stronger support level is noted at 1.34610, which coincides with a previous low from earlier sessions. Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance is at 1.35700, which aligns with the middle of the Bollinger Bands and prior consolidation. The next significant resistance is around 1.36050, which marks the upper boundary of the recent price action. Conclusion and Consideration: The AUD/USD technical analysis suggests a cautious outlook as the pair consolidates within the lower Bollinger Band range, signaling potential short-term downside pressure. However, oversold conditions on both the DeM and Bollinger Bands suggest a possible rebound if key support holds. Traders should monitor the MACD for confirmation of continued bearish momentum or potential reversal on AUDUSD price chart. Additionally, economic events like the RBA Press Conference and upcoming U.S. data releases could add volatility to the pair. In this uncertain market environment, prudent risk management is advised, with close attention paid to the 1.35000 support and 1.35700 resistance levels for any breakout signals. Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. FXGlory 09.24.2024
EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.26.2024 Time Zone: GMT +3 Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4) Fundamental Analysis: The EUR/USD fundamental outlook today is influenced by both the Eurozone's economic factors and the strength of the US dollar. Recently, several key developments in both economies have affected this pair that’s also known as the “Fiber”. The US dollar has seen strength due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials like Governor Adriana Kugler, signaling potential rate hikes. Additionally, economic data from the US, including durable goods orders and jobless claims, have contributed to dollar strength. On the Euro side, consumer sentiment measured by the GfK survey, and remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde have highlighted inflationary pressures, which could push the European Central Bank towards a hawkish stance. With both central banks hinting at potential tightening, the EUR/USD forex pair remains at the mercy of its fundamental economic releases and policy updates in the coming days. Price Action: The EUR/USD price action on the pair’s H4 chart reveals a notable bullish trend, with price action testing resistance levels around 1.1184 to 1.1187. After a breakout attempt, the price faced rejection at the top of the rising channel. The pair seems to be consolidating around key support zones, reflecting market indecision as traders await further developments from central banks. The recent price decline suggests that bears have temporarily regained control, but with the price hovering near the lower boundary of the rising channel, further upward movement is possible if key support holds. Key Technical Indicators: Ichimoku Cloud: The price is trading within the cloud, signaling a potential period of consolidation. The lagging span also suggests mixed momentum, with no clear direction yet, as traders await additional catalysts. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 45.64, indicating neutral momentum. It's neither in the oversold nor overbought territory, suggesting that the market may be gearing up for its next significant move depending on economic news or technical breakout opportunities. MACD: The MACD histogram remains slightly positive, with a minor bullish bias as the MACD line hovers near the signal line. However, momentum appears weak, and a more significant move would be required to confirm directionality. Support and Resistance: Support Levels: The immediate support level is 1.1129, which is aligned with the rising trendline. A breach below this level could push the pair towards the 1.1116 zone, which marks the lower boundary of the channel. Resistance Levels: The pair faces strong resistance at 1.1184 and 1.1187, the latter being a key psychological level. A break above this resistance could set the stage for a bullish continuation towards 1.1230. Conclusion and Consideration: The EURUSD technical analysis on its H4 chart is showing signs of consolidation as it trades near key support levels. With both the Ichimoku cloud and MACD offering mixed signals, traders should wait for a breakout either above resistance at 1.1187 or a breakdown below 1.1129 to determine the next significant directional move. Upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve and ECB officials, as well as economic data, will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on the Fiber’s volatility. Setting appropriate risk management tools, such as stop-losses near key support/resistance zones, will be essential to navigate the EUR-USD market fluctuations. Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. FXGlory 09.26.2024
