Daily Analysis By Fxglory

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by FxGlory Ltd, Mar 15, 2024.

  1. FxGlory Ltd

    FxGlory Ltd Senior Investor

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    USDCAD H4 Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.27.2024


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    Time Zone: GMT +3
    Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)



    Fundamental Analysis:
    The USDCAD pair reflects the exchange rate between the US Dollar (USD) and the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Today’s key events impacting this pair include the upcoming speech from Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, which could hint at future monetary policy, especially regarding interest rates and the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor force. In addition, traders are waiting for important US inflation data and the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ upcoming reports on trade and income. On the Canadian side, attention will be on GDP figures, which offer insights into the country's economic performance. These events could drive significant volatility for USDCAD in the coming sessions.


    Price Action:
    On the H4 chart, USDCAD is showing signs of a potential reversal after a strong bearish move. The price is currently in an upward channel following a drop, indicating a recovery phase. The pair recently found support around 1.3430 and has started to retrace upwards, moving closer to the 1.3470 resistance level. There are multiple signs suggesting a possible breakout if the bullish momentum continues, but traders should be cautious as the pair remains below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling potential further consolidation before a stronger move.


    Key Technical Indicators:
    Ichimoku Cloud:
    The price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a bearish long-term sentiment. However, the upward trend from recent lows indicates potential bullish recovery, though it remains weak until the price breaks above the cloud.
    MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is slightly below the signal line, and the histogram shows weak bearish momentum. Although there is some upward movement, a clearer bullish signal would emerge only if the MACD line crosses above the signal line, indicating stronger buying pressure.
    DeMarker (DeM 14): The DeMarker indicator stands at 0.587, suggesting that the market is approaching an overbought condition. While not fully signaling exhaustion, traders should watch for any overbought conditions that might lead to a temporary pullback.
    Williams %R (14): The Williams %R is at -14.71, nearing overbought territory. This suggests that the current upward momentum may face resistance soon, and a retracement could be imminent if the pair fails to break above key resistance levels.


    Support and Resistance Levels:
    Support:
    The nearest support is at 1.3430, a level where the price recently found a bounce.
    Resistance: The immediate resistance is at 1.3480, aligned with the 23.6% Fibonacci level. The next key resistance is at 1.3525, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci level.


    Conclusion and Consideration:
    The USDCAD H4 chart is showing signs of a possible bullish recovery following a recent drop. However, the pair remains below the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting the longer-term trend is still bearish until confirmed otherwise. The MACD and Williams %R indicators show cautious optimism, but traders should be wary of overbought conditions, especially as the price nears key Fibonacci resistance levels. With upcoming fundamental news from both the US and Canada, volatility is expected. As always, traders should stay informed of breaking news and economic data to avoid unexpected market movements.


    Disclaimer: The analysis provided here is for educational purposes and should not be considered as financial advice. Market conditions may change rapidly, and traders should conduct their own research before making any trading decisions.


    FXGlory
    09.27.2024
     
  2. FxGlory Ltd

    FxGlory Ltd Senior Investor

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    EURGBP H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 09.30.2024


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    Time Zone: GMT +3
    Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)



    Fundamental Analysis:
    The EUR/GBP news analysis today is influenced by various fundamental factors, including economic indicators, interest rates, and geopolitical events impacting both the Eurozone and the UK. As the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) manage their monetary policies, traders closely monitor releases such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from both regions. Recent releases indicate inflationary pressures in the Eurozone, which could prompt the ECB to adopt a more hawkish stance. Conversely, economic growth and inflation data from the UK may provide insights into the BoE's potential interest rate decisions, further impacting the EURGBP forecast today. Overall, these dynamics complicate the pair’s market environment, where traders need to stay alert to macroeconomic changes and their implications for the currency’s valuation.


    Price Action:
    The EUR/GBP H4 chart shows the price is currently trending below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating the pair’s bearish sentiment. Its price action has shown a consolidation phase following a previous downtrend, suggesting a possible accumulation of positions before a potential breakout. The market is currently oscillating near key support and resistance levels, with the pair’s price movement reflecting indecision among traders.


    Key Technical Indicators:
    Ichimoku Cloud:
    The price trading below the Ichimoku Cloud highlights the pair’s bearish market structure. A breakout above the cloud would be necessary for a trend reversal, while a sustained movement below it suggests ongoing selling pressure.
    RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is positioned at 48.43, indicating that the EURGBP sentiment is neutral with no clear overbought or oversold conditions. This level suggests that there is potential for either a bullish reversal or a continuation of the bearish trend, depending on future price action.
    Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator shows values of 72.15 and 66.96, indicating a potential overbought condition. This could suggest that the price may face resistance at current levels, leading to a correction or pullback if sellers begin to dominate the market.


    Support and Resistance:
    Support Levels:
    The nearest support is at 0.83311, with further support located at 0.83205. These levels are critical as they may attract buying interest if the price tests them.
    Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance level is at 0.83460. A breakout above this level could signify a shift in momentum, potentially paving the way for higher prices.


    Conclusion and Consideration:
    The EUR/GBP forecast today on its H4 chart is currently exhibiting signs of consolidation after a bearish phase, supported by the positioning of key technical indicators. With the price below the Ichimoku Cloud, traders should be cautious about potential short positions, particularly near key resistance levels. However, the RSI and Stochastic Oscillator suggest a watchful approach, as they indicate neutral to slightly overbought conditions. Upcoming economic releases and ECB/BoE communications will be crucial in determining the pair’s future price movements. Risk management strategies, including stop losses, should be implemented to navigate the volatility inherent in this currency pair.


    Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


    FXGlory
    09.30.2024
     
  3. FxGlory Ltd

    FxGlory Ltd Senior Investor

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    EURCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.01.2024


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    Time Zone: GMT +3
    Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)



    Fundamental Analysis:
    The EUR/CAD pair is currently influenced by various economic developments. The Canadian Dollar's movement is heavily tied to oil prices, and recent volatility in the oil market has caused fluctuations in the CAD. The Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision to hold interest rates has also kept the CAD under pressure. Meanwhile, Eurozone data continues to show mixed results, with weaker industrial production in Germany. However, inflationary pressures persist in the Eurozone, adding complexity to the European Central Bank's (ECB) future policy moves. Both these factors are shaping the EUR/CAD's performance this week, with upcoming economic data releases and oil price movements playing a critical role.


    Price Action:
    The EUR/CAD H4 chart indicates that the pair is trading in a consolidation phase after a recent bullish push. The price action shows a pullback from the 1.5170 resistance level and is currently hovering around the 1.5060 level. The pair is testing the lower boundary of a consolidation range, with key support at 1.4900. Bollinger Bands show decreased volatility, suggesting the potential for a breakout in the near term. Traders should watch for a decisive break either above the resistance at 1.5170 or below the 1.4900 support to determine the next move.


    Key Technical Indicators:
    William %R: The Williams %R on the EUR/CAD chart is near -56, indicating a neutral state with no strong overbought or oversold signals. A further drop below -80 could indicate oversold conditions, signaling potential buying opportunities.
    MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is in bearish territory, with the MACD line below the signal line. The histogram is also below zero, supporting the bearish outlook. This indicates a potential for further downside if momentum doesn't shift soon.
    DeM (DeMarker Indicator): The DeMarker indicator is near 0.45, indicating that the pair is not in an oversold condition but may face continued selling pressure if it breaches key support levels.


    Support and Resistance:
    Support Levels: The immediate support is found at 1.4900, a psychological level that has acted as a strong base in previous sessions. Below this, 1.4850 could provide further support.
    Resistance Levels: The nearest resistance is at 1.5170, a critical level that the pair has struggled to break. If EUR/CAD manages to close above this level, it could test the next resistance at 1.5270, marking the upper boundary of recent price action.


    Conclusion and Consideration:
    The EUR/CAD analysis suggests a cautious approach as the pair continues to consolidate near key support. Fundamental factors such as Canadian oil price movements and Eurozone inflation will play a significant role in shaping the direction of the pair. While technical indicators like the MACD and Bollinger Bands suggest the possibility of a breakout, traders should wait for confirmation before entering new positions. Prudent risk management is advised, with close attention to the 1.4900 support and 1.5170 resistance levels for potential breakout signals.


    Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


    FXGlory
    10.01.2024
     
  4. FxGlory Ltd

    FxGlory Ltd Senior Investor

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    EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.02.2024



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    Time Zone: GMT +3
    Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


    Fundamental Analysis:


    The EUR/USD forex pair, also known as “Fiber,” reflects the relative strength of the Eurozone and US economies. Currently, the market is focused on macroeconomic data such as employment figures, inflation rates, and central bank policies. Upcoming releases, such as France’s government budget balance and unemployment data across key European economies, are critical for Euro traders. On the US side, employment data (ADP) and Federal Reserve speeches will significantly impact the US Dollar’s performance. Any stronger-than-expected ADP job growth or hawkish Fed commentary could strengthen the USD, putting further pressure on the EUR/USD forecast today.


    Price Action:

    The EUR/USD H4 chart has been in a downtrend within a descending channel. The pair’s price action has been unable to breach the 1.1153 resistance level and is now testing support around 1.1068. The continuation of lower highs and lower lows within the channel indicates the Fiber’s strong bearish momentum, with no immediate signs of reversal. The price is hovering near the lower boundary of the channel, suggesting potential further downside movement if the support level breaks.


    Key Technical Indicators:

    RSI (Relative Strength Index):

    The RSI is currently at 36.73, indicating the pair is approaching oversold conditions. While this suggests bearish momentum, it also implies that a relief rally could be on the horizon, especially if the RSI dips below 30.

    MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

    The MACD histogram is negative, with the MACD line below the signal line, reinforcing the pair’s bearish outlook. The increasing distance between the two lines suggests that bearish momentum is still strong, with no immediate signs of reversal.


    Support and Resistance:

    Support Levels:

    Immediate support is seen at 1.1068, followed by stronger support at 1.1005, which could act as a critical level if the bearish trend continues.

    Resistance Levels:

    The nearest resistance stands at 1.1153, with the next significant resistance level around 1.1200 if the price manages to reverse the current downtrend.


    Conclusion and Consideration:

    The EUR/USD technical analysis today is displaying its strong bearish signals on the H4 timeframe, with both MACD and RSI indicators supporting the downward momentum. However, with the RSI nearing oversold conditions, a short-term pullback could be expected, but the overall EURUSD outlook remains bearish unless key resistance levels are breached. Traders should watch upcoming US employment data and Federal Reserve speeches for further direction. Risk management is crucial, especially given the volatile nature of the pair.


    Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


    FXGlory
    10.02.2024
     
  5. FxGlory Ltd

    FxGlory Ltd Senior Investor

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    NZDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.03.2024



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    Time Zone: GMT +3
    Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


    Fundamental Analysis:


    The NZD/USD forex pair, also known as “Kiwi,” is often influenced by commodity prices and global risk sentiment, and continues to be impacted by macroeconomic data from both New Zealand and the U.S. Today, traders are watching upcoming U.S. reports, including jobless claims and the job cut announcements, which will provide insight into the U.S. labor market's health. Stronger-than-expected data could bolster the U.S. dollar, as it reflects an improving economy and increases the likelihood of further tightening by the Federal Reserve. On the New Zealand side, global commodity prices, particularly those of agricultural goods and dairy products, remain a key driver for the NZD. With the latest ANZ Commodity Price Index on the horizon, any significant changes in global prices could have a direct impact on the Kiwi’s forecast today.


    Price Action:

    The NZD/USD H4 chart shows a clear downtrend, with the pair moving within a descending channel. The pair’s price has been consistently forming lower highs and lower lows, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment. The pair recently broke below a key support level of 0.6296, which has now turned into resistance. Current NZDUSD price action suggests that bearish momentum may continue unless a clear reversal signal appears.


    Key Technical Indicators:

    RSI (Relative Strength Index):

    The RSI is currently at 35.99, which indicates that the pair is approaching oversold conditions. However, there is still room for further downside before the RSI reaches extreme levels, suggesting that the pair’s bearish momentum could persist in the short term.

    Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic oscillator is at 16.69, deep in the oversold zone. This suggests that while the pair remains under selling pressure, a potential bullish reversal could be on the horizon if buyers step in at these levels.

    MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

    The MACD is in negative territory, with the histogram showing increased downward pressure. The MACD line is below the signal line, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.


    Support and Resistance:

    Support Levels:

    The nearest support level is at 0.6230, which aligns with the lower boundary of the descending channel. If this level breaks, further downside toward 0.6175 could be expected.

    Resistance Levels:

    The immediate resistance is now at 0.6296. A break above this level would indicate a shift in sentiment and could signal the start of a bullish correction.


    Conclusion and Consideration:

    The NZD/USD technical analysis today shows the pair remains in a strong downtrend on the H4 timeframe, with key technical indicators pointing to its continued bearish pressure. The RSI and Stochastic oscillator both suggest the pair is nearing oversold conditions, hinting at a possible short-term reversal. However, as long as the price remains below the resistance level of 0.6296, the bearish momentum is likely to continue. Traders should watch for upcoming U.S. data releases, as stronger-than-expected numbers could further strengthen the U.S. dollar, putting additional pressure on the Kiwi. Risk management is crucial in this volatile environment, and traders should consider setting stop losses near key support and resistance levels.


    Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


    FXGlory
    10.03.2024
     
  6. FxGlory Ltd

    FxGlory Ltd Senior Investor

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    BTC/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.04.2024


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    Time Zone: GMT +3
    Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)



    Fundamental Analysis:
    The BTCUSD forex pair reflects the exchange rate between Bitcoin (BTC) and the US Dollar (USD), a crucial instrument for cryptocurrency traders. Today’s market is poised for volatility due to significant economic releases in the US, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the Unemployment Rate. These reports are essential indicators of economic strength, and a higher-than-expected NFP figure or lower unemployment rate may support the USD, leading to downward pressure on BTC/USD. Additionally, remarks from Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams are anticipated, with any hawkish tone likely strengthening the USD. As labor inflation data is released, it could also contribute to volatility in the cryptocurrency market, as USD strength generally puts downward pressure on Bitcoin prices.


    Price Action:
    Looking at the BTC USD H4 chart, the price has been in a consistent downtrend after failing to maintain its bullish momentum from earlier weeks. The pair is currently trading below the Ichimoku cloud, a clear indication of bearish dominance. A descending trendline is capping any attempts for recovery, further confirming the bearish outlook. Price has been consolidating just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $60,050, indicating a potential battle between buyers and sellers. If the price remains below this key support, the bears may push it lower, toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $58,483.


    Key Technical Indicators:
    Ichimoku Cloud:
    The price is currently below the Ichimoku cloud, which indicates bearish market conditions. The cloud itself is red and growing, suggesting that bearish momentum is likely to continue in the short term. The lagging span and future cloud are both below price action, adding to the negative outlook.

    MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD indicator shows bearish momentum, with the MACD line well below the signal line. The histogram is negative, and while it is contracting slightly, there’s no indication of a bullish crossover soon. This reinforces the bearish trend and suggests continued downward pressure.

    %R Indicator (Williams %R): The %R is currently around the -70 mark, indicating that the market is in bearish territory but not yet oversold. This suggests that there is still room for the price to decline further before a potential reversal or consolidation.


    Support and Resistance:
    Support Levels: Immediate support is located at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $60,050. If this level breaks, the next significant support lies at the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $58,483. A failure to hold this could see the pair dropping towards $56,000.
    Resistance Levels: On the upside, resistance is found at the descending trendline around $61,800. Above this, the next major resistance is at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $61,897, coinciding with the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud.


    Conclusion and Consideration: The BTC/USD H4 chart indicates a bearish bias in the market, with price trading below key technical levels, including the Ichimoku cloud and major Fibonacci retracement points. Bearish momentum appears strong, as confirmed by the MACD and %R indicators. However, any upside surprise in today’s US economic releases, particularly the NFP or unemployment figures, could add further downside pressure on Bitcoin. Traders should remain cautious as the market could see heightened volatility due to these upcoming fundamental drivers. The key support at $60,050 will be critical to watch, as a break below could signal deeper corrections toward $58,483.


    Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


    FXGlory
    10.04.2024
     
  7. FxGlory Ltd

    FxGlory Ltd Senior Investor

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    AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.07.2024



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    Time Zone: GMT +3
    Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


    Fundamental Analysis:


    The AUD/USD forex trading pair, also known as the “Aussie”, continues to experience significant movements, as the pair’s fundamental forecast is influenced by various factors impacting both the Australian and US economies. Recently, US Federal Reserve officials, including Michelle Bowman and Neel Kashkari, have provided hawkish views regarding the US economy and future interest rate hikes. These statements are strengthening the USD, putting downward pressure on the Australian dollar. Moreover, a US Consumer Credit report is anticipated, which may further support the USD if consumer debt levels exceed expectations. In Australia, markets are adjusting to the observance of Labor Day in some states, contributing to lower liquidity and increased volatility. On the economic front, Melbourne Institute data on consumer price inflation is also relevant, as it could signal future adjustments in Australian monetary policy, especially given the RBA’s focus on inflation control.


    Price Action:

    the AUD/USD H4 candle chart, shows the pair is trending downward within a well-defined bearish channel, having failed to break the upper resistance around 0.6840. The pair is currently trading near 0.6794, approaching a significant support level of 0.6770. The Aussi’s price action shows a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows, confirming its bearish market sentiment. Buyers are attempting to regain control, but the prevailing market momentum suggests that the downtrend is still dominant.


    Key Technical Indicators:

    Bollinger Bands:

    The price is currently close to the lower Bollinger Band, which may act as a short-term dynamic support. The bands are widening, indicating increasing volatility in the market. A breakdown below the lower band could signify continued AUDUSD bearish pressure, while a bounce might suggest a temporary reversal or consolidation.

    MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence):

    The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, with the histogram showing a growing negative divergence. This suggests that the bearish momentum is still intact, and further downside is likely unless there is a strong reversal in the coming sessions.


    Support and Resistance:

    Support Levels:

    The immediate support is at 0.6770, which aligns with recent price action and the lower Bollinger Band. If this level breaks, the next major support could be found around 0.6700, a key psychological level.

    Resistance Levels:

    The closest resistance is at 0.6840, near the middle Bollinger Band. A successful breach above this level would suggest a potential recovery, but strong resistance is expected at the 0.6885 level.


    Conclusion and Consideration:

    The AUD/USD technical analysis today shows the ongoing bearish trend, supported by strong downward momentum in both the pair’s price action and its technical indicators. The widening Bollinger Bands and bearish MACD signal suggest that the pair may face further downward pressure, especially if the 0.6770 support level is breached. However, traders should be cautious of any potential rebounds from the lower Bollinger Band or support levels, which may trigger short-term corrections. The upcoming US economic data and Australian inflation reports could further influence the AUDUSD market direction. Given the current market conditions, employing risk management strategies, such as stop-loss orders, is crucial in navigating this volatile environment.


    Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


    FXGlory
    10.07.2024
     
  8. FxGlory Ltd

    FxGlory Ltd Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.08.2024


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    Time Zone: GMT +3
    Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)



    Fundamental Analysis:
    Today’s economic data releases from the Eurozone and the U.S. will likely influence the direction of the EUR/USD pair. For the Euro, German Industrial Production data reported a surprising increase of 0.8% after previously contracting by -2.4%, signaling a recovery in the manufacturing sector. This positive data, along with ECOFIN meetings and a speech by the German Bundesbank President, could boost sentiment toward the Euro.
    From the U.S. side, the trade balance narrowed to -70.1B from -78.8B, reflecting improving economic conditions, which could support the U.S. Dollar. Additionally, FOMC members Kugler, Bostic, and Collins are scheduled to speak today, potentially providing insights into the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy stance. Markets will also watch the NFIB Small Business Index, expected to rise to 92.0, which could further influence USD sentiment.


    Price Action:
    On the H4 chart, EUR/USD has been trading in a downtrend since mid-September, with the price currently hovering near the 1.0970 level. The Bollinger Bands indicate that the pair is oversold as the price touched the lower band, suggesting that a possible rebound could be on the horizon. Despite the recent bounce, the pair remains below key moving averages, reflecting overall bearish momentum.
    The MACD shows continued bearishness, with the histogram below zero and declining. However, as the pair approaches key support levels, there could be a corrective movement if buyers manage to defend these levels.


    Key Technical Indicators:
    Bollinger Bands: The price has touched the lower band, indicating potential oversold conditions and a possible corrective bounce.
    MACD: The indicator remains bearish, with the histogram and MACD line below the signal line, confirming ongoing selling pressure.


    Support and Resistance:
    Support Levels: Key support is located at 1.0945, with further support around 1.0890. A break below these levels could open the door for further declines toward 1.0865.
    Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1020, which coincides with the middle Bollinger Band. A breakout above this level could push the pair toward the next resistance at 1.1080.


    Conclusion and Consideration:
    The EUR/USD H4 chart suggests a continuation of the bearish trend unless the pair manages to break above the immediate resistance levels. A bounce from the 1.0945 support could signal a potential correction, but the broader trend remains bearish. Traders should closely monitor today's speeches from FOMC members and U.S. trade balance data, as these could provide further direction to the pair.


    Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


    FXGlory
    10.08.2024
     
  9. FxGlory Ltd

    FxGlory Ltd Senior Investor

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    NZDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.09.2024



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    Time Zone: GMT +3
    Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


    Fundamental Analysis:


    The NZD/USD forex trading pair, also known as the "Kiwi," always has its fundamental outlook heavily influenced by factors from both the New Zealand and U.S. economies. For the NZD/USD news analysis today, traders are focused on speeches by key Federal Reserve members such as Philip Jefferson and Raphael Bostic. Any hawkish tone could further strengthen the U.S. dollar, applying pressure on the NZD/USD forecast today. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate policy, along with global risk sentiment, particularly commodity prices, plays a crucial role in driving the Kiwi. Rising interest rates in the U.S. can create a widening yield differential, pushing the pair lower. Meanwhile, data on U.S. crude inventories and wholesale inventories can influence broader USD demand, affecting the pair's movements.


    Price Action:

    The NZD/USD H4 chart shows a clear downward channel, indicating the pair’s strong bearish trend over the past several sessions. The Kiwi’s price action has made consistent lower highs and lower lows, adhering closely to the boundaries of this bearish channel. Recently, the pair has found temporary support around the 0.6119 level, but it struggles to maintain any upward momentum. Short-term recovery attempts are capped, and the overall structure suggests that selling pressure remains dominant.


    Key Technical Indicators:

    RSI (Relative Strength Index):

    The RSI is currently at 33.68, indicating that the pair is in the oversold territory. This could suggest a possible short-term corrective bounce; however, the overall bearish momentum might continue unless the RSI moves back above the 50 level, confirming a shift in the pair’s sentiment.

    Ichimoku Cloud:

    The Ichimoku Cloud shows a clear bearish sentiment, with the price well below the cloud, indicating continued downside pressure. The Tenkan-sen line (red) is below the Kijun-sen line (blue), reinforcing the NZDUSD bearish outlook. The Lagging Span is also below the price, confirming that the current trend is bearish. However, the pair’s proximity to key support levels may lead to some consolidation.


    Support and Resistance:

    Support Levels:

    The key support levels are 0.6119 and 0.6070. If the price breaks below these levels, the next major support could be around 0.6000.

    Resistance Levels:

    On the upside, resistance is seen at 0.6141, followed by 0.6160. Any break above these levels may result in short-term bullish momentum, though the broader trend remains bearish.


    Conclusion and Consideration:

    The NZD/USD H4 candle chart analysis today confirms that the pair is firmly entrenched in a bearish trend, with key technical indicators like the RSI and Ichimoku cloud reinforcing this sentiment. Although the RSI is approaching oversold territory, suggesting a potential short-term bounce, the overall bias remains bearish unless there is a significant change in the pair’s momentum. Traders should closely monitor upcoming U.S. data and Fed speeches for any signs of USD strength or weakness that could influence the NZD-USD fundamental movements. It's crucial to keep an eye on key support levels, as a break below them could open the door to further downside. Conversely, a break above resistance might offer a temporary relief rally.


    Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


    FXGlory
    10.09.2024
     
  10. FxGlory Ltd

    FxGlory Ltd Senior Investor

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    USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 10.10.2024


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    Time Zone: GMT +3
    Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)



    Fundamental Analysis:
    The USD/JPY currency pair, also known as the “Gopher,” always has its daily fundamental forecast significantly influenced by monetary policy from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Today, several key events, including speeches by Federal Reserve members, like Susan Collins and Mary Daly, are expected to provide subtle clues regarding future US monetary policy, which could impact USD volatility. Hawkish commentary from these officials could strengthen the USD. In contrast, the BoJ’s recent measures to stabilize lending and corporate price adjustments will affect JPY strength, as traders monitor Japan's economic performance. Inflation reports and unemployment data from the US are also set to influence market movements in the short term, further shaping the USD/JPY direction.


    Price Action:
    On the USD/JPY H4 candle chart, we can see the pair’s bullish trend, moving within a rising channel. The Gopher’s price action is consistently making higher highs and higher lows, reflecting its strong bullish momentum. The pair is approaching a key resistance level at 149.860, which, if broken, could signal continued bullish pressure toward the 150.915 level. However, a rejection from this level could see a retracement back toward the lower boundary of the ascending channel.


    Key Technical Indicators:
    Stochastic Oscillator:
    The stochastic is hovering in overbought territory, currently around 91.17, signaling potential exhaustion in the uptrend. This could mean a possible short-term pullback or correction is on the horizon before any further USDJPY upward movement.
    Volume: Recent volume analysis shows a gradual increase in bullish activity, supporting the ongoing uptrend. However, any divergence between the pair’s price action and its volume could hint at a reversal or weakening of the trend.


    Support and Resistance:
    Support Levels:
    The first support level is at 148.929, aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A break below this level could lead to further declines, testing the support at 148.200.
    Resistance Levels: The next key resistance is located at 149.860, with the potential for further movement toward 150.915 if bullish momentum continues.


    Conclusion and Consideration:
    The USD/JPY analysis today is clearly displaying strong bullish momentum on its H4 chart, driven by the pair’s fundamental and technical factors. Traders should keep an eye on the upcoming speeches by Fed officials, which may provide insight into future interest rate decisions that could push the pair higher. However, with the stochastic oscillator in overbought territory, caution is advised, as there may be a short-term pullback before a continuation of the upward trend. Monitoring support levels and key resistance around 149.860 will be essential for determining potential trading opportunities. Implementing proper risk management strategies, including stop-losses near key support levels, is crucial given the market’s volatility.


    Disclaimer: The provided analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.


    FXGlory
    10.10.2024
     

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