Daily Analysis By Fxglory

SILVERUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.30.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
Silver (XAG/USD) remains a key asset in the commodities market, influenced by economic data, geopolitical risks, and inflationary trends. Today, the US economic calendar includes GDP growth figures, jobless claims, and inflation reports, which will play a significant role in shaping USD strength and, consequently, silver prices. Strong GDP data could boost the dollar, leading to downward pressure on silver, while weak figures may drive silver prices higher as investors seek safe-haven assets. Additionally, the pending home sales report and natural gas inventory data may impact overall market sentiment, influencing silver demand. Given the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions, traders are closely watching for clues on future interest rate adjustments, which could affect the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like silver.


Price Action
Silver’s H4 chart analysis suggests that the price action has been bullish in recent sessions. The price recently broke above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a shift in momentum. However, it has reached the 0% Fibonacci retracement level, which has acted as a strong resistance zone multiple times this month. If silver fails to break and sustain above this level, a retracement towards 30.50 or 30.17 is possible. Conversely, a confirmed breakout above resistance could lead to a continuation towards 31.00 and beyond. The current candles indicate strong bullish pressure, but overbought conditions in momentum indicators suggest a possible correction before further upside.


Key Technical Indicators
Ichimoku Cloud: The price has broken above the Ichimoku cloud, signaling a potential bullish continuation. The green cloud below the price suggests a supportive trend, while the 0% Fibonacci level remains a key resistance. If silver fails to break higher, a pullback towards the cloud’s upper boundary could occur before another attempt to rally.
Adaptive Moving Average (Period 9, Fast EMA 2, Slow EMA 30): Silver’s candles have crossed above the moving average line, indicating strong bullish momentum. The price action remains above the EMA 30, suggesting that the short-term trend remains positive. As long as silver stays above this moving average, the bullish outlook remains intact.
RSI (Relative Strength Index 14): The RSI is currently at 62.33, indicating bullish momentum but not yet in overbought territory. This suggests that there is still room for further upside before reaching exhaustion. However, traders should watch for potential divergence or a move above 70, which could indicate overbought conditions and a potential reversal.
Williams %R (14): The Williams %R indicator is at -12.31, signaling that silver is nearing overbought conditions. This suggests that while bullish momentum is strong, a short-term pullback or consolidation may occur before another upward push.


Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance: The first key resistance is at 30.88, aligning with the 0% Fibonacci retracement, a strong barrier this month. A breakout could lead to 31.00, a psychological resistance, with further upside toward 31.20 - 31.50.
Support: Immediate support lies at 30.50 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), followed by 30.17 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). If bearish pressure increases, 29.84 (50% Fibonacci retracement) will be a crucial level to watch.


Conclusion and Consideration
Silver (SILVERUSD) on the H4 chart shows a bullish trend, supported by a break above the Ichimoku cloud, a moving average crossover, and strong RSI momentum. However, the Fibonacci 0% resistance at 30.88 has held firm, making it a key level to watch. If silver breaks above this resistance, a rally towards 31.00 or higher is likely. Conversely, failure to break could lead to profit-taking and a retracement towards 30.50 or lower.
Upcoming US economic data releases, particularly GDP growth and jobless claims, could introduce volatility. A stronger USD may weigh on silver prices, while weaker data could support further gains. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels closely and adjust their strategies accordingly.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for SILVER/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on SILVERUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.30.2025

 

GOLD (XAU/USD) H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 01.31.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) continues its bullish trend as investors anticipate key US economic data releases today. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a crucial inflation gauge for the Federal Reserve, is set to be released, along with Personal Income and Spending reports. A higher-than-expected reading could strengthen the US dollar, potentially putting pressure on gold. However, growing expectations of a dovish Fed stance and persistent global economic uncertainties continue to support gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman’s speech could provide further clues on future monetary policy, influencing Gold/USD’s next move.


Price Action
The H4 timeframe for gold (XAU/USD) reveals a clear bullish price structure, trading within an ascending channel. The price action consistently forms higher highs and higher lows, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. Recent movement shows gold attempting to break above a key psychological level, while a rejection at the upper trendline may trigger a short-term pullback. Consolidation above this level could provide the momentum needed for further upside movement.


Key Technical Indicators
Ichimoku Cloud: The price remains well above the Ichimoku cloud, reinforcing the prevailing bullish sentiment. The Tenkan-Sen (red line) and Kijun-Sen (blue line) are trending upwards, confirming continued momentum. The cloud’s support zone aligns with recent consolidation levels, suggesting strong demand at lower levels.
Volumes: Buying interest remains strong, with volume spikes accompanying bullish moves. This confirms active participation in the uptrend. A sudden decrease in volume on further rallies may indicate exhaustion, warranting caution for potential pullbacks.
Bulls Indicator: The Bulls(13) oscillator remains positive, reflecting persistent buying pressure. The elevated levels indicate that buyers still dominate, but a declining reading while price stays high could hint at a weakening bullish trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index - 14): The RSI is currently at 71.16, placing gold near overbought territory. While this supports strong bullish momentum, it also increases the likelihood of a short-term retracement or consolidation before another rally. A move above extreme levels may signal trend exhaustion.


Support and Resistance
Support: The ascending channel’s lower boundary at $2,750-$2,760 serves as a strong support zone, aligning with recent retracement levels.
Resistance: The $2,800 psychological level remains a key resistance; a breakout above could drive further bullish momentum toward $2,825-$2,850.


Conclusion and Consideration
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a strong bullish trend, supported by the Ichimoku Cloud, rising RSI, and increasing volume. The ascending channel continues to define price movement, with bulls in control. However, overbought conditions suggest a potential pullback before the next leg higher. Today’s US PCE inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary may introduce market volatility, influencing gold’s short-term trajectory. Traders should monitor the gold price reactions at key levels and manage risk accordingly.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
01.31.2025

 

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.03.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) is currently facing downward pressure amid key economic data releases. The latest Melbourne Institute CPI report is expected to provide insights into consumer inflation, which directly impacts the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy stance. Meanwhile, Australian Retail Sales and ANZ Job Advertisements reports will give a clearer picture of consumer spending and employment trends. Any signs of weakening economic activity could lead to further AUD depreciation. On the USD side, the market is watching S&P Global and ISM Manufacturing PMI, which will provide a broad economic outlook for the United States. Strong manufacturing data could boost the USD, leading to further AUDUSD declines. Additionally, Federal Reserve official Raphael Bostic's speech might provide hints on future US interest rate policies, influencing market sentiment.


Price Action:
After the market opened, AUD/USD recorded a significant gap down, with price opening at a much lower level. The first few candles show two consecutive large red candles, indicating a strong bearish movement. This suggests increased selling pressure, likely fueled by fundamental catalysts favoring the USD. The price has broken below a key support zone, confirming strong bearish momentum.


Key Technical Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud: The AUDUSD price is trading well below the Ichimoku Cloud, indicating a strong bearish trend. The Tenkan-sen (red line) and Kijun-sen (blue line) have crossed downward, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Additionally, the future cloud is turning red, suggesting continued downside pressure.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 25.76, deep in the oversold territory. This signals that the AUD USD pair is experiencing extreme selling pressure. However, it also suggests that a potential short-term correction or bounce might occur if buyers step in.
Volume: There is a notable increase in volume, supporting the strong bearish move. The high trading volume confirms that sellers are dominant in the market. However, if volume starts declining, it could indicate exhaustion of the bearish trend.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Support level is seen around 0.6090, where price may stabilize; a break below could drive it toward 0.6050.
Resistance: Resistance level is near 0.6220, the previous breakdown level, with further resistance at 0.6285, aligning with the Ichimoku Cloud.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUDUSD H4 technical analysis indicates a strong bearish trend, supported by key technical indicators like Ichimoku Cloud, RSI, and Volume Analysis. Fundamentally, the strong USD data and weak AUD economic outlook are further driving the AUD-USD pair downward. While RSI suggests oversold conditions, the overall market sentiment remains bearish unless a significant catalyst reverses the trend. Traders should closely monitor upcoming Retail Sales and PMI data, which could introduce volatility. If economic data continues to favor the USD, further downside movement is likely. However, a technical bounce from oversold conditions is also possible.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.03.2025

 

NZDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.04.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The NZD/USD forex pair is currently facing significant market influences, driven by both New Zealand and U.S. economic data releases. Today, key U.S. reports, including the JOLTS Job Openings (expected 8.01M, prior 8.10M) and Factory Orders m/m (-0.7% expected, previous -0.4%), will provide insight into the U.S. labor market and manufacturing sector. Additionally, speeches by FOMC members Bostic and Daly could impact USD sentiment, particularly if they hint at future monetary policy changes.
On the New Zealand side, the GDT Price Index (forecasted at 1.4%) and Employment Change q/q (-0.2% expected, prior -0.5%) will play a key role in determining NZD movement. The Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 5.1% from 4.8%, indicating potential labor market weakness, which may add bearish pressure on the NZD. Given these factors, the NZDUSD fx pair could experience increased volatility, with a higher probability of USD strength dominating the market.


Price Action:
After a strong bearish trend, NZD/USD has attempted a retest of the lost support zone in the form of a bullish correction. The price is currently trading around 0.56100, which aligns with an immediate resistance level. If this level holds, the NZD-USD pair could resume its downward movement. The recent price action shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the bearish structure. A failure to break above 0.56570 would likely push the NZD USD pair toward lower support levels.


Key Technical Indicators:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 40, signaling a bearish trend. This indicates that sellers are in control, but there is still room for further downside before entering oversold territory. If the RSI drops below 30, it could suggest an oversold condition, potentially leading to a short-term reversal or consolidation.
Volume Indicator: The volume indicator is showing a positive reaction to the bearish phase, reinforcing the possibility of a continued downward trend. Increased selling volume suggests that bearish sentiment remains strong, reducing the likelihood of a sustained bullish correction.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support levels are identified at 0.55430, 0.55160, and 0.55000. These levels could be considered as targets for the upcoming bearish wave.
Resistance: Resistance levels are located at 0.56100, 0.56570, and 0.57250. Any sustained break above these levels would invalidate the bearish scenario.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The NZD/USD pair remains in a bearish structure, supported by key technical indicators, including RSI, volume, and MACD. The recent price action suggests that the bearish correction phase could continue if resistance at 0.56100 holds. Upcoming economic events, particularly U.S. labor market data and New Zealand employment reports, will play a crucial role in determining short-term price action. Traders should closely monitor resistance and support levels for potential breakout or continuation signals.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for NZD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on NZDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.04.2025

 

EUR/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EUR/USD pair remains influenced by key economic events scheduled for today. On the USD side, multiple Federal Reserve (FOMC) members are set to speak, including Governor Philip Jefferson and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin. These speeches may provide insights into future monetary policy, which could impact the U.S. dollar’s strength. Additionally, the U.S. trade balance report and ISM Services PMI data are expected, adding further volatility to the market. For the EUR, upcoming Industrial Production and Services PMI reports are crucial for gauging economic strength within the Eurozone. A stronger-than-expected print may support the euro, while weaker data could extend the current bearish pressure on EUR/USD. Given the hawkish Fed expectations, the U.S. dollar could maintain its dominance unless there is a significant shift in tone from policymakers.


Price Action Analysis:
After a gap occurred, the price reacted to its support level at 1.02194, forming several doji candles, indicating market indecision. Following the gap closure, the price has broken the first resistance trendline and is now heading toward the second and third resistance levels. The price is currently moving within a descending channel, and a confirmed break above the next trendline resistance could shift the market structure towards a more bullish scenario.


Key Technical Indicators:
Alligator Trend Line: The alligator lines are beginning to cross upwards, indicating a potential bullish trend. If the price sustains above this pattern, further upside movement could be confirmed.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 53.39, suggesting neutral momentum. However, if it moves beyond 60, a stronger bullish bias may develop.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest support level is positioned at 1.02194, which was previously tested during the price drop before the gap closure.
Resistance: The immediate resistance levels stand at 1.03768, which aligns with the broken trendline, followed by the next major resistance at 1.04500 and 1.05095, forming a descending channel's upper boundary.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EUR/USD H4 chart analysis shows a potential shift towards bullish momentum after breaking the first descending resistance trendline. However, upcoming fundamental events, including Fed speeches and key economic data, could significantly impact price movements. Traders should monitor resistance levels closely, as a breakout above 1.03768 could confirm further upside potential. Meanwhile, a failure to sustain gains might lead to another test of support at 1.02194.



Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.05.2025

 

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.06.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The USDCAD currency pair is experiencing volatility due to key economic events today. The US Dollar (USD) is impacted by multiple speeches from FOMC members Michelle Bowman, Philip Jefferson, and Christopher Waller, which may provide monetary policy signals affecting market sentiment. If their comments are hawkish, the USD could strengthen, while dovish remarks may lead to USD weakness. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims, Challenger Job Cuts, and Productivity Reports will offer insights into the US labor market, potentially adding further USD volatility. On the Canadian Dollar (CAD) side, the Ivey PMI report is crucial; a higher-than-expected reading could strengthen CAD, driving USDCAD lower, while a weak reading could weaken CAD, pushing USD CAD higher.


Price Action Analysis
The USDCAD H4 chart shows a sharp bearish trend, followed by a minor correction in the last five candles. Four of these candles are bullish but relatively small, indicating a weak recovery attempt. The USD/CAD Price has found support at 1.4280, leading to a slight bounce, but the lack of strong bullish momentum suggests that this is likely a temporary consolidation rather than a reversal. The downtrend remains intact, and unless buyers push above key resistance levels, further bearish pressure could emerge.


Key Technical Indicators
Moving Averages (MA 9 - Blue & MA 17 - Red): The short-term MA (9) has crossed below the long-term MA (17), forming a bearish crossover, confirming a downtrend continuation signal. The moving averages are both sloping downward, reinforcing selling pressure. Despite the recent small bullish candles, the USD CAD price remains below both moving averages, meaning the bearish trend is still dominant unless price reclaims the moving averages.
Relative Strength Index (RSI 14): The RSI is at 41.82, signaling bearish sentiment but not yet oversold conditions. This suggests there is still room for further downside before the market reaches oversold territory. If the RSI remains below 50, bears remain in control, and a drop below 30 would indicate oversold conditions, potentially leading to a short-term reversal or consolidation.
Awesome Oscillator (AO): The AO is at -0.014, confirming that negative momentum is still dominant, although the histogram bars are shrinking, indicating a possible slowdown in bearish momentum. If AO turns positive, it could suggest a trend shift, but for now, the bearish trend remains intact.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.4280, which has acted as a bounce level in recent price action, and if broken, it could push the USD/CAD price further down.
Resistance: The first resistance level is 1.4385, which aligns with recent price rejections and the 9-period moving average, while the next major resistance level is 1.4440, corresponding to the previous breakdown zone. A break above this level would challenge the bearish scenario and indicate potential bullish momentum.


Conclusion and Considerations
The USDCAD H4 technical analysis suggests a bearish trend continuation, with the bearish moving average crossover, RSI below 50, and AO still negative reinforcing the downside bias. The recent minor bullish correction lacks strong momentum, indicating a possible continuation of the downtrend unless buyers push above key resistance levels. Upcoming fundamental news events, including Ivey PMI for CAD and FOMC speeches, could drive volatility, making it crucial to monitor USDCAD price reactions. Traders should watch for a breakout or rejection at resistance levels, while a break below 1.4280 could trigger further bearish movement. Proper risk management is crucial, given the upcoming news releases that may cause sharp price fluctuations.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.06.2025

 

GBPUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.07.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP/USD currency pair remains highly reactive to economic events from both the UK and the US. Today, key market-moving events include speeches from BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill, which could provide insights into future monetary policy. Traders will be watching for any hawkish or dovish tones that could impact the British Pound’s direction. On the USD side, multiple Federal Reserve officials, including Mary Daly, Lorie Logan, and Michelle Bowman, are scheduled to speak. Their commentary on monetary policy, inflation trends, and labor market conditions will be crucial, especially given upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data and unemployment figures. If the Fed officials express concerns about inflation persistence, it may strengthen the USD, leading to further downside for GBP-USD.


Price Action:
The GBP/USD pair is showing a bearish bias on the H4 timeframe. Out of the last 10 candlesticks, 8 have been bearish, reflecting strong selling pressure. The GBPUSD price recently tested the Bollinger Bands lower band, bounced toward the middle band near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, but failed to break higher. The rejection at the middle band signals that sellers remain dominant, pushing the price back toward the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, which aligns with the lower Bollinger Band. A further break below this key area could send the cable toward the 23.6% Fibonacci level, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The bands were wide over the past 24 hours, signaling high volatility, but have now started to tighten slightly, which could indicate an upcoming consolidation before another move. Price action suggests a bearish structure, as the price rejected the middle band and is now gravitating toward the lower band near the 38.2% Fibonacci level.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 48.26, hovering near the neutral zone. This suggests that the market is neither oversold nor overbought, allowing room for further price action. However, the declining RSI trend reflects increasing bearish momentum.
Volumes: Recent volume spikes indicate strong market participation, particularly during downward moves. The last large bearish candle had a significant volume increase, suggesting that sellers are still in control. If volume remains high on further price drops, this would reinforce bearish momentum.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: Immediate support is at 1.2307 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). A break below could push GBPUSD toward 1.2260 (23.6% Fibonacci and recent lows), reinforcing bearish momentum.
Resistance: The first resistance is 1.2480 - 1.2570 (61.8% Fibonacci and previous rejections). A breakout could challenge 1.2500 (psychological level and middle Bollinger Band), signaling a potential shift in momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP/USD pair on the H4 timeframe continues to exhibit bearish price action, struggling to hold above key support levels. The rejection at the middle Bollinger Band and 50% Fibonacci level suggests further downside potential, with the next key target at 1.2307 and possibly 1.2260 if selling pressure persists. Fundamentally, the BOE speeches today could introduce volatility, while Fed speakers may reinforce USD strength, further pressuring the GBP USD pair. Traders should closely monitor upcoming market events and consider risk management strategies in case of sudden cable price spikes.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBPUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.07.2025

 

GOLDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.10.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The price of Gold (XAU/USD) remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions and upcoming fundamental data releases. Today, the market is closely watching the Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. If inflation expectations rise, it could signal potential hawkish monetary policy from the Fed, strengthening the USD and pressuring Gold prices. Conversely, lower inflation expectations may support Gold as an inflation hedge. Additionally, broader market sentiment around interest rate decisions and geopolitical risks could drive gold price action. Investors will also monitor the US Dollar Index (DXY) for signs of strength or weakness, influencing Gold’s movement.


Price Action
Gold has been in a strong uptrend, continuously making new all-time highs over the past few weeks. However, after failing to break the previous ATH, the price action has formed a double-top reversal pattern, suggesting potential downside correction before a continuation of the bullish move. The last red candlestick with a long lower wick indicates strong rejection at the ATH level, reinforcing a temporary pullback. The first support level is the ascending trendline (green), and if the correction continues, the second support level lies around 2830. If the price finds strong demand at these levels, the bullish structure may resume, aiming for new all-time highs.


Key Technical Indicators
Parabolic SAR: The last three Parabolic SAR dots are positioned below the price, confirming that the bullish trend remains intact. However, a shift in position above the price would indicate a potential trend reversal.
Bollinger Bands: Gold is currently supported by the middle Bollinger Band (20-period moving average). If the price continues to correct lower, it may test the lower Bollinger Band, acting as dynamic support. If the price rebounds from the middle band, the uptrend remains valid.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 62.48, still below the overbought threshold (70). This indicates that Gold has room for further upside, but a break below 50 could suggest increasing bearish momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is above the signal line, indicating a bullish momentum; however, the histogram shows weakening bullish strength, suggesting a potential consolidation or correction before another upward movement.
%R (Williams %R): The %R indicator is currently at -37.17, which is close to the overbought zone but still within neutral territory. If the value moves further downward, it may indicate a potential short-term correction.


Support and Resistance Levels
support: Immediate support is located at 2854 (green ascending trendline). If broken, the next key level is at 2830, a recent demand zone.
Resistance: Major resistance remains at 2871, which aligns with the last all-time high. A breakout above this level could lead to new record highs, pushing Gold towards 2900 and beyond.


Conclusion and Considerations
Gold’s overall trend remains bullish, but the formation of a double-top pattern suggests that a short-term pullback is likely before another leg higher. Traders should watch the key support zones at 2854 and 2830, as a bounce from these areas could indicate a continuation of the uptrend. Meanwhile, breaking below these levels might trigger further correction. The RSI, MACD, and Parabolic SAR confirm that bullish momentum is still present, but some caution is warranted due to weakening momentum signals. The upcoming Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations could influence the USD, thereby impacting Gold prices. If the report suggests higher inflation expectations, USD strength could push Gold lower, whereas weaker expectations could support Gold’s rally.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.10.2025

 

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.11.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/JPY currency pair is influenced by the current market sentiment, economic data, and central bank policies. Today, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is expected to have low liquidity due to a Bank Holiday in Japan. This could lead to reduced volatility in the early session. However, significant movement is anticipated later due to multiple speeches from U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony at 5:00 PM GMT+2. PowellÂ’s comments will likely provide insights into future interest rate decisions, which could lead to increased volatility in USD-related pairs. Additionally, FOMC Members Hammack, Bowman, and Williams will speak later, adding to potential market fluctuations. Traders should closely monitor these events, as any hawkish or dovish remarks could drive significant price action in USDJPY.


Price Action:
The USDJPY H4 chart shows a bearish trend over the past several days. The pair recently started a weak correction phase, attempting to retrace some of its losses. The USD JPY price today is hovering near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating that selling pressure is still strong but also hinting at a possible short-term rebound. If the correction gains momentum, a test of key resistance levels is possible. However, a failure to hold recent gains could see the USD JPY pair continue its downtrend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price is near the lower Bollinger Band, signaling that the market is in a bearish trend but also suggesting a potential short-term correction. If the USD/JPY price fails to break above the middle band, the downtrend is likely to resume.
Volume Indicator: The volume is also in a bearish trend, confirming that selling pressure remains dominant. However, there are signs that the volume may be decreasing, indicating a potential end to the correction phase soon.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 42.00, which means the USD-JPY is not yet in the oversold zone (below 30). This suggests that there is still room for further downside, but a potential reversal could be near if RSI moves lower and approaches oversold conditions.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support levels are identified at 150.000, 149.300, and148.500. These levels could be considered as targets for the upcoming bearish wave.
Resistance: Resistance levels are located at 152.500, 153.000, and 153.800. Any sustained break above these levels would invalidate the bearish scenario.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USDJPY H4 analysis suggests that the pair is still in a bearish phase, but a short-term correction is underway. The Bollinger Bands, RSI, and Volume indicators indicate that while selling pressure remains strong, a temporary rebound is possible. However, todayÂ’s Fed Chair PowellÂ’s speech at 5:00 PM GMT+2 and other FOMC membersÂ’ speeches could significantly impact the USD, leading to sharp price movements. Given the low liquidity from the JPY side due to the Bank Holiday, traders should be cautious of sudden volatility spikes. Traders should monitor key support and resistance levels closely and adjust their trading strategies based on upcoming Fed comments. A break below 150.750 could extend the downtrend, while a push above 152.500 might signal a stronger recovery.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.11.2025

 

USDCAD H4 Technical and Fundamental Chart Daily Analysis for 02.12.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCAD currency pair may see heightened volatility today and in the coming sessions due to a series of scheduled US and Canadian economic events. On the US side, traders will look closely at upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) releases on March 12, 2025, as well as comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other FOMC members, which can offer critical clues on the US interest rate path. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) could react significantly to the Bank of Canada (BOC) Minutes release set for March 26, 2025, and crude oil inventory reports given Canada’s sizable energy sector. These factors, combined with ongoing market sentiment around inflation and economic growth, may create a catalyst for a new price direction on the USD-CAD H4 chart.


Price Action:
The USD/CAD chart shows that the pair has been stuck for quite some time in a range channel (as indicated by the two blue horizontal lines). A recent breakout attempt above the channel failed, and price action has since retested the lower boundary twice, hinting at building downside pressure. The red cycle line visible on the chart suggests the timing for a new directional move may be near, and the formation of consecutive bearish candles signals a rising possibility of a sustained break below the channel support. Traders should monitor how the pair behaves around this critical zone, as a confirmed break could trigger a fresh downward trend.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The three Bollinger Bands on the USD-CAD chart (the moving average center line, plus the upper and lower standard deviation lines) have converged closer together, indicating a period of lower volatility. Such tightening bands frequently precede a breakout move, highlighting the potential for a strong price action shift once volatility returns. The price has gravitated near the lower Band in recent sessions, reflecting a growing bearish bias. This contraction phase can end abruptly if the pair breaks convincingly below the channel support.
Parabolic SAR: The last three Parabolic SAR dots have formed above the most recent candles, illustrating that downside momentum is beginning to dominate. When the dots remain above price bars, it typically suggests a short-term downtrend. A continuation of this pattern will reinforce bearish sentiment and further align with the notion of a pending channel breakdown. Traders often look for price and Parabolic SAR alignment to confirm momentum direction.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI reading near 39 indicates that momentum is leaning to the downside without having reached oversold territory yet. An RSI below 50 generally reflects a bearish outlook, though there is still room for additional selling pressure before oversold conditions emerge. If RSI continues to drop, it could validate increased bearish control. Conversely, a move back above 50 might signal a swing in momentum favoring buyers.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support rests around the 1.4230 level, the lower boundary of the established price channel. A decisive close below this threshold could open the door toward the 1.4100 mark, which stands as the next notable support.
Resistance: Key resistance is observed near 1.4450, aligning with the channel’s upper boundary. An additional resistance hurdle waits around 1.4700, which coincides with prior swing highs and could test bullish commitments if price surges upward.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD Vs. CAD pair appears poised for a potential breakout from its prolonged consolidation, and current technical indicators skew bearish. While a downside break remains likely given the failed attempt to breach the channel top and repeated tests of the lower boundary, major fundamental releases—such as US CPI and BOC Minutes—could inject sudden volatility and shift momentum. Traders conducting a technical and fundamental chart daily analysis for USDCAD should monitor both the market’s reaction to upcoming news and the price action around critical support and resistance levels. Caution and diligent risk management remain key, especially if a definitive channel break to the downside materializes.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CAD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCAD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.12.2025