Daily Market Analysis By Fxopen

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by FXOpen Trader, Oct 19, 2021.

  1. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    Investors Keep Selling the JPY Despite Falling to the Lowest Since 2002 vs. the US Dollar

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    One of the big stories in the FX market in 2022 is the spectacular drop of the Japanese yen (JPY). Since March, it has depreciated against all its peers to reach the weakest levels vs. the US dollar since 2002.

    Interestingly enough, the selloff comes when investors had all the reasons to buy the Japanese currency – not to sell it. Historically, the JPY acted as a safe-haven currency.

    Effectively, it means that traders bought the JPY and sold US equities in times of uncertainty. Well, one did happen – US stocks are down by about -20% or more, depending on the sector. But the JPY did the opposite.

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    BOJ’s Measures Put Pressure on the Yen

    The trigger of the yen’s weakness was the Bank of Japan’s policy. It continues to suppress bond yields, making JGBs or Japanese Government Bonds less attractive – and the yen too.

    This is a central bank that diverges from other major central banks in the sense that it keeps easing conditions while others have started to tighten. The Federal Reserve of the United States is the perfect example, doing exactly the opposite of what the Bank of Japan is doing. Hence, the yen reached the weakest level in more than two decades against the US dollar.

    But before blaming it all on the Bank of Japan, one thing should ring a bell for FX traders. If it was only the JPY declining the way it did, then the Bank of Japan was the sole reason for it.

    Except it wasn’t.

    The other safe-haven currency, the Swiss franc, dropped even more against the US dollar. The USD/CHF exchange rate rose above parity for the first time in many years as investors ran from the so-called safe-haven currencies and bought the US dollar – the world’s reserve currency.

    So, what comes next?

    Because of the Swiss franc is dropping in a similar or even more aggressive fashion, it means that the price action in the FX market is driven by the US dollar and the Fed and not by the Bank of Japan and the yen. Hence, look for the trend to continue as the move may have just started.

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  2. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 17th MAY 2022
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    BTCUSD: Bullish Harami Pattern Above $28,600

    Bitcoin was not able to sustain its bullish momentum last week, and after touching a high of $31,437 on 16th May, started to decline heavily against the US dollar.

    The short selling continued pushing down the price of BTC below the $30,000 handle, touching a low of $29,169 after which we can see some consolidation.

    We can see a pullback in the markets at a level above $30,000, which is expected to continue towards $33,000.

    We can clearly see a bullish harami pattern above the $28,600 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

    Both the Stoch and StochRSI are indicating an overbought level which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

    The relative strength index is at 57 indicating a STRONG demand for bitcoin at the current market level.

    Bitcoin is now moving above its 100 hourly simple and 200 hourly simple MAs.

    Most of the major technical indicators are giving a STRONG BUY signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 32,000 and 33,500.

    The average true range is indicating LESSER market volatility with a mildly bullish momentum.

    • Bitcoin: bullish reversal seen above $28,600
    • The Williams percent range is indicating an OVERBOUGHT level
    • The price is now trading just above its pivot level of $30,443
    • All of the moving averages are giving a STRONG BUY market signal

    Bitcoin: Bullish Reversal Seen Above $28,600
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    Bitcoin continues to move into a consolidation channel above the $30,000 handle in the European trading session today.

    The bounce that we have seen above the $30,000 handle is expected to continue this week, and we are now looking at the targets of $32,000 and $33,500 in the medium-term range.

    The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is mildly bullish; the medium-term outlook has turned neutral; and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

    Bitcoin continues to consolidate above its important support level of $30,000, and with increasing demand zone formation the immediate target is $31,500

    The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic resistance level of 30,533 and Fibonacci resistance level of 30,653, after which the path towards 32,000 will get cleared.

    In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has increased by 3.17% by 939$, and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 31.059 billion. We can see an increase of 1.58% in the trading volume as compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

    The Week Ahead

    The price of bitcoin is moving in a mildly bullish momentum, and the immediate targets are $31,000 and $31,500

    The daily RSI is printing at 35 which means that the medium-range demand continues to be weak.

    The current market condition is suitable for entering into a BUY position with targets of $32,000 and $33,500 next week.

    The price of BTCUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $30,000 this week.

    The weekly outlook is projected at $32,000 with a consolidation zone of $31,500.

    Technical Indicators:

    The moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): at 121.40 indicating a BUY

    THe average directional change (14-day): at 43.83 indicating a BUY

    The rate of price change: at 3.529 indicating a BUY

    The ultimate oscillator: at 65.16 indicating a BUY


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  3. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD Recovers Ground, USD/CHF Could Extend Losses
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    EUR/USD started a decent increase from the 1.0350 zone. USD/CHF is sliding and might extend losses below the 0.9900 support zone.

    Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

    • The Euro started a recovery wave from the 1.0350 support zone against the US Dollar.
    • There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.0515 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • USD/CHF topped near the 1.0060 zone and started a downside correction.
    • There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support near 1.0020 on the hourly chart.

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro formed a base above the 1.0350 zone and started a decent increase against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair climbed above the 1.0420 resistance zone to move into a bullish zone.

    There was a steady increase above the 1.0500 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Besides, there was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.0515 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.

    EUR/USD Hourly Chart
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    There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.0592 swing high (formed on FXOpen) to 1.0350 low.

    It is now consolidating near the 1.0550 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.0592 swing high to 1.0350 low. On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.0550 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.0580 level.

    A clear move above the 1.0580 resistance zone could set the pace for a larger increase towards 1.0650. The next major resistance is near the 1.0750 zone.

    On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.0500 level. The next major support is near the 1.0480 level. A downside break below the 1.0480 support could start another decline.

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  4. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 19th MAY, 2022
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    ETHUSD: Double Top Pattern Below $2,121

    Ethereum was unable to sustain its bullish momentum last week, and after touching a high of 2,151 on 16th May started to decline heavily against the US dollar.

    We can see the continuation of the bearish momentum this week, and the decline continues pulling down the prices of Ethereum below the 2,000 handle in the European trading session today.

    With the increase in the market liquidity many of the medium-term investors are selling their stakes amid the ongoing proposed Ethereum 2.0 network upgrade.

    The prices touched an intraday low of $1,902 in the Asian trading session, and an intraday high of $1,971 in the European trading session today.

    We can clearly see a double-top pattern below $2,121 which is a bearish pattern and signifies the end of a bullish phase and the start of a bearish phase in the markets.

    ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1,954 and moving into a consolidation channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic support level of 1,917, and Fibonacci support level of 1,945 after which the path towards 1,800 will get cleared.

    The relative strength index is at 43 indicating a WEAK demand for Ethereum and the continuation of the bearish trend.

    The StochRSI is indicating an overbought level which means that the price is due to decline further in the short term.

    Most of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG SELL market signal.

    All of the moving averages are giving a STRONG SELL signal, and we are now looking at the levels of $1,900 to $1,800 in the short-term range.

    ETH is now trading below its 100 hourly and exponential MAs.

    • Ether: a bearish reversal seen below the mark of $2,121
    • Short-term range appears to be mildly BEARISH
    • The daily RSI is below 50 at 32 indicating a bearish market
    • The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility

    Ether: Bearish Reversal Seen Below $2,121
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    ETHUSD is now moving in a mildly bearish channel with the prices trading below the $2,000 handle in the European trading session today.

    We can see an SMA10 crossover pattern located at 1,940, which means that a potential bullish reversal is possible after touching these levels.

    We have detected a bearish harami crossover pattern in the M15 chart which further validates the ongoing trends in the markets.

    The key resistance levels to watch are $1,966 and $1,990, and the prices of ETHUSD need to cross these levels for a potential bullish reversal.

    ETH has declined by 4.41% with a price change of 89.48$ in the past 24hrs, and has a trading volume of 18.320 billion USD.

    We can see an Increase of 5.27% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

    The Week Ahead

    The ongoing correction in the prices of Ethereum is also because of the pending ETH 2.0 network upgrade which is delayed from its original schedule. Many of the Ethereum investors are willing to wait till the new upgrade is launched before investing their funds.

    The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly BEARISH; the medium-term outlook has turned neutral; and the long-term outlook for Ether is NEUTRAL in present market conditions.

    This week, Ether is expected to move in a range between $1,800 and $2,000, and next week, it is expected to enter into a consolidation phase above the level of $2,000.

    Technical Indicators:

    The Williams percent range: at -55.74 indicating a SELL

    The moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): at -20.99 indicating a SELL

    The ultimate oscillator: at 47.46 indicating a SELL

    The rate of price change: at -1.364 indicating a SELL

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  5. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    AUD/USD and NZD/USD Might Regain Bullish Momentum
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    AUD/USD traded higher but faced sellers near 0.7075. NZD/USD is correcting gains and approaching a key support zone near the 0.6350 level.

    Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

    • The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase from the 0.6850 support zone against the US Dollar.
    • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7000 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • NZD/USD also started a decent increase after it cleared the 0.6300 resistance zone.
    • There was a move above a major contracting triangle with resistance near 0.6355 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar formed a base above the 0.6850 level and started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair gained pace for a move above the 0.6950 resistance zone.

    There was a clear move above the 0.7000 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair traded as high as 0.7072 on FXOpen and is currently correcting gains. There was a move below the 0.7025 support zone.

    AUD/USD Hourly Chart
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    The pair is now trading near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6949 swing low to 0.7072 high. On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.7000 level.

    There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7000 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The trend line is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6949 swing low to 0.7072 high.

    The next support could be the 0.6950 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.6950 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.6900 level. Any more downsides might send the pair toward the 0.6850 level.

    On the upside, the AUD/USD pair is facing resistance near the 0.7040 level. The next major resistance is near the 0.7075 level. A close above the 0.7075 level could start a steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance could be 0.7150.

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  6. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    GBP/USD and GBP/JPY Could Rise Steadily

    GBP/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.2400 resistance zone. GBP/JPY is consolidating and might rise steadily above the 160.50 resistance zone.

    Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

    • The British Pound started a fresh increase above the 1.2420 resistance against the US Dollar.
    • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2465 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • GBP/JPY is showing positive signs above the 158.50 and 159.00 support levels.
    • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 159.20 on the hourly chart.

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    This past week, the British Pound formed a base above the 1.2150 level against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair started a steady increase above the 1.2200 and 1.2320 resistance levels.

    There was also a clear move above the 1.2450 resistance and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The recent price action was bullish, and the pair even climbed above the 1.236 Fib extension level of the downward move from the 1.2500 swing high to 1.2329 low (formed on FXOpen).

    GBP/USD Hourly Chart
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    It is now consolidating above the 1.2500 level. On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 1.2550 level. The next major hurdle is near the 1.2600 level.

    The 1.618 Fib extension level of the downward move from the 1.2500 swing high to 1.2329 low is also near the 1.2600 zone. An upside break above 1.2600 could set the pace for a move towards the 1.2720 resistance zone.

    If there is no upside break above 1.2600, the pair could start a fresh decline. An immediate support is near the 1.2500. The next major support is near the 1.2450 level.

    There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2465 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. If there is a break below the 1.2450 support, the pair could test the 1.2320 support.

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  7. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    ECB Hints At Positive Rates, Sending EUR Higher

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    The euro started the trading week on a higher note after the ECB President, Christine Lagarde, said that the central bank is ready to raise the rates during the summer. In a blog posted on the ECB’s website, Lagarde said that the lift-off date is drawing closer, and it is important for the markets to know the policy normalization path ahead.

    Euro needed nothing more to rally. The EUR/USD, as seen below, jumped over 100 pips or more than 1% on the news. Traders now expect that the ECB will raise the key interest rate twice in July and once in September, bringing the deposit facility rate to zero.

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    ECB Prepares for the Ending of Negative Rates

    It is a milestone for the ECB. The central bank has kept the interest rate below zero for many years, but now it fears that a weaker currency might add to inflation.

    It is calculated that the euro depreciation since March 2022 alone could add another 10bp on inflation this year and 20bp in the year to come. Hence, the ECB wanted to make sure that the markets know it is not tolerating inflation much higher than its price stability definition.

    As a consequence, the euro rallied across the board. It gained against all its peers, not only against the US dollar.

    But the EUR/USD is the exchange rate that matters. To be able to gain against the dollar at a time when the Fed is hiking the rates aggressively is something to take into account by traders.

    Euro traded as high as 1.23 against the dollar only twelve months ago. The rapid depreciation to below 1.04 worried the ECB, as it fuels higher inflation.

    As such, the news that the central bank plans the normalization of its policy should not come as a surprise, despite the war in Ukraine. ECB has the mandate to deal with price stability, and the only way to do so is to raise the rates to combat inflation.

    All in all, today’s news confirms that the ECB joined the hawkish camp. The big question in the months ahead would be if the summer rate hikes are all the ECB is willing to do, or some more await after September?

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  8. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 24th MAY 2022
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    BTCUSD: Triple-Top Pattern Below $30,775

    Bitcoin was not able to sustain its bullish momentum this week, and after touching a high of 30,652 on 23rd May, started to decline heavily against the US dollar; it touched a low of 28,860 today in the Asian trading session.

    The drop that we saw continues, and now the prices have entered a consolidation channel above the $29,000 handle in the European trading session.

    If we see some buying at these levels, the prices will continue to remain above them in the short-term range. But in the medium-term range, we are expecting a further drop due to weak global demand cues.

    We can clearly see a triple-top pattern below the $30б775 handle which is a bearish reversal pattern because it signifies the end of an uptrend and a shift towards a downtrend.

    Both the STOCH and STOCHRSI are indicating overbought levels which means that in the immediate short term, a decline in the prices is expected.

    The relative strength index is at 40 indicating a WEAK demand for bitcoin at the current market levels.

    Bitcoin is now moving below its 100 and 200 hourly simple MAs.

    Most of the major technical indicators are giving a SELL signal, which means that in the immediate short term, we are expecting targets of 28,000 and 27,500.

    The average true range is indicating LESS market volatility with a mild bearish momentum.

    • Bitcoin: bearish reversal seen below $30,775
    • The Williams percent range is indicating an OVERBOUGHT level
    • The price is now trading just above its pivot level of $29,229
    • All of the MAs are giving a STRONG SELL market signal

    Bitcoin: Bearish Reversal Seen Below $30,775

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    Bitcoin continues to move in a consolidation channel above the $29,000 handle in the European trading session today. We can see the formation of a demand zone above it, but the global risk scenarios may enable further decline in the prices this week.

    The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is mildly bearish; the medium-term outlook has turned neutral; and the long-term outlook remains neutral under present market conditions.

    Bitcoin continues to consolidate above its important support level of $29,000, and with increasing demand zone formation the immediate target is $30,500.

    The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic support level of 28,819 and Fibonacci support level of 29,135, after which the path towards 28,000 will get cleared.

    In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has decreased by 3.97% with a price change of 1,210$, and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 31.034 billion. We can see an Increase of 1.58% in the trading volume as compared to yesterday, which appears to be normal.

    The Week Ahead

    The prices of bitcoin are moving in a mildly bearish momentum, and the immediate targets are $28,000 and $27,500.

    The daily RSI is printing at 37 which means that the medium range demand continues to be weak.

    We are now expecting a range-bound movement between $28,000 and $32,000 next week.

    The price of BTCUSD will need to remain above the important support level of $29,000 this week.

    The weekly outlook is projected at $31,500 with a consolidation zone of $30,000.

    Technical Indicators:

    The moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): at -161 indicating a SELL

    The average directional change (14-day): at 34.90 indicating a NEUTRAL level

    The rate of price change: at -0.006 indicating a SELL

    The commodity channel index (14-day): at 42.96 indicating a NEUTRAL level

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  9. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 26th MAY, 2022
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    ETHUSD: Bearish Engulfing Pattern Below $2,087

    Ethereum was unable to sustain its bullish momentum last week, and after touching a high of 2,084 on 23rd May started to decline heavily against the US dollar.

    We can see a strong bearish momentum this week and this is putting downward pressure on the prices of Ethereum below the 1,850 handle in the European trading session today.

    We can see the formation of a major bearish trend line today on the hourly chart, and the pair is poised to decline further given the weak investor sentiments.

    The prices touched an intraday low of $1,817 in the Asian trading session and an intraday high of $1,970 in the European trading session today.

    We can clearly see a bearish engulfing pattern below the $2,087 handle which is a bearish pattern and signifies the end of a bullish phase and the start of a bearish phase in the markets.

    ETH is now trading just below its pivot level of 1,860 and moving into a strong bearish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic support level of 1,686 and Fibonacci support level of 1,819 after which the path towards 1,700 will get cleared.

    The relative strength index is at 21 indicating an OVERSOLD market, and the possibility of a pullback action.

    The StochRSI and Williams percent range are indicating an oversold level which means that the prices are due to correct upwards in the short-term range.

    ALL of the technical indicators are giving a STRONG SELL market signal.

    All of the MAs are giving a STRONG SELL signal, and we are now looking at the levels of $1,700 to $1,650 in the short-term range.

    ETH is now trading below both the 100 hourly and exponential MAs.

    • A bearish reversal seen below the $2,087 mark
    • The short-term range appears to be strongly BEARISH
    • The daily RSI is below 50 at 21 indicating a bearish market
    • The average true range is indicating HIGH market volatility

    Ether: Bearish Continuation Seen Below $2,087
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    ETHUSD is now moving into a strong bearish channel with the prices trading below the $1,850 handle in the European trading session today.

    We can see that the commodity channel index is at an oversold level now, which means that a potential bullish reversal is possible anytime in the markets.

    The price of Ethereum may continue to decline further against the US dollar due to the global risk scenario and the flight towards the safe haven assets like the US Dollar and GOLD.

    The key resistance levels to watch are $1,941 and $2,260, and the price of ETHUSD needs to cross these levels for a potential Bullish reversal.

    ETH has declined by 6.91% with a price change of 136$ in the past 24hrs, and has a trading volume of 15.808 Billion USD.

    We can see an Increase of 13.21% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

    The Week Ahead

    Global investors are now looking to liquidate their holdings in the cryptocurrencies, which is the main reason for the continuous fall in the price of Ethereum. The ETH 2.0 planned upgrade has also not been activated, leading to concerns about the future of Ethereum and its market value.

    The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned strongly BEARISH; the medium-term outlook has turned BEARISH; and the long-term outlook for Ether is NEUTRAL in present market conditions.

    This week, Ether is expected to move in a range between $1,600 and $1,800, and next week, it is expected to enter into a consolidation phase above the $1,800 level.

    Technical Indicators:

    The Williams percent range: at -96.16 indicating an OVERSOLD level

    The moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): at -25.11 indicating a SELL

    The ultimate oscillator: at 33.56 indicating a SELL

    The rate of price change: at -6.37 indicating a SELL

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  10. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    Gold Price and Oil Price Eye More Upsides
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    Gold price started a fresh increase from the $1,810 level. Crude oil price is rising and might gain pace above the $113.75 resistance.

    Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

    • Gold price started a decent increase after it formed a base above $1,810 against the US Dollar.
    • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,845 on the hourly chart of gold.
    • Crude oil price gained pace after it broke the $108 and $110 resistance levels.
    • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $111.10 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    Gold price formed a base above the $1,800 and $1,810 levels against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh increase after it broke the $1,825 resistance zone.

    There was a clear move above the $1,840 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price even cleared the $1,850 level and traded as high as $1,869 on FXOpen. Recently, there was a downside correction below $1,850, but the bulls protected $1,840.

    Gold Price Hourly Chart
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    A low is formed near $1,840 and the price is now rising. There was a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,869 swing high to $1,840 low.

    On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $1,858 level. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,869 swing high to $1,840 low. The main resistance is now forming near the $1,870 level.

    A close above the $1,870 level could open the doors for a steady increase towards $1,880. The next major resistance sits near the $1,900 level.

    On the downside, an initial support is near the $1,850 level. The next major support is near the $1,845 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near $1,845 on the hourly chart of gold, below which there is a risk of a larger decline.

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