Daily Market Analysis By Fxopen

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by FXOpen Trader, Oct 19, 2021.

  1. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD and USD/CHF: Dollar Correcting Gains
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    EUR/USD is eyeing a key upside break above 1.1380 and 1.1400. USD/CHF remains supported on the downside near the 0.9200 zone.

    Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF

    • The Euro is slowly moving higher above the 1.1350 resistance zone against the US Dollar.
    • There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1315 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD.
    • USD/CHF started a downside correction from the 0.9280 resistance zone.
    • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.9215 on the hourly chart.

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro remained well bid above the 1.1300 zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair started a slow increase and there was a break above the 1.1320 resistance zone.

    There was a clear break above the 1.1340 and 1.1350 levels. The pair climbed above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 1.1364 swing high to 1.1284 low (formed on FXOpen).

    EUR/USD Hourly Chart
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    It is now trading above 1.1370 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.1380 level.

    The 1.236 Fib extension level of the key decline from the 1.1364 swing high to 1.1284 low is also near the 1.1380 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.1400 zone. A clear upside break above the 1.1400 zone could open the doors for a steady move.

    The next major resistance sits near the 1.1450 level. On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.1340 level. The next major support is near the 1.1320 level.

    There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.1315 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. A downside break below the 1.1320 support could start another decline. The next major support sits near 1.1300.

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  2. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 13th JAN, 2022
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    ETHUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $2,900

    Ethereum continued its decline from its weekly high of $3,888 reached on January 4th, after which we saw heavy selling pressure due to which the prices of ETHUSD slid below the $3,000 handle.

    ETHUSD touched a low of $2,937 on January 10th, after which we could see buying and a continuous uptick in the price of Ethereum.

    We can clearly see a double bottom pattern above the $2,900 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern and signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

    ETH is now trading just above its pivot level of $3,340 and moving in a mild bullish channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance level of $3,361 and Fibonacci resistance level of $3,354, after which the path towards $3,500 will get cleared.

    StochRSI is indicating an OVERSOLD level which means markets are due for an upwards correction soon.

    All the moving averages are giving a STRONG BUY signal at the current market price of $3,351.

    Some of the technical indicators are giving a BUY signal.

    ETH is now trading above its 100 hourly and 200 hourly simple moving averages.

    • Ethereum bullish trend reversal is seen above the $2,900 mark
    • Short-term range appears to be mildly bullish for ETHUSD
    • Commodity channel index is indicating a NEUTRAL market
    • Average true range is indicating LESSER market volatility

    Ether: Bullish Trend Reversal Seen Above $2,900
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    ETHUSD continues to move into a consolidation channel above the $3,300 handle in the European trading session today.

    The bullish trend line formation is clearly visible, indicating that the price of Ethereum will touch the level of $3,500.

    We are also due for a major upwards correction in ETHUSD which could be in the form of a rally taking its price close to the $4,000 handle.

    We can see a mildly bullish channel in progression today which is pushing the price of ETHUSD towards the $3,400 level.

    ETH has gained 3.90% with a price change of 125.95$ in the past 24hrs and has a trading volume of 16.624 billion USD.

    We can see an increase of 10.23% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs which appears to be normal.

    The Week Ahead

    Ethereum continues to outperform bitcoin in 2022 with a gain of 3.85% in the last 24hrs, as compared to bitcoin which gained 2.86% during the same period.

    The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned mildly bullish, the medium-term outlook is NEUTRAL, and the long-term outlook for Ether is BULLISH with a RALLY formation towards the $4,000 handle.

    ETHUSD continues to remain above the important psychological support level of $3,000, and is now on its path to cross $3,500.

    This week, we can expect to see $3,500 to $3,600; and the next week Ether is expected to trade at a level above $3,600.

    ETH 2.0

    Ethereum is close to replacing Proof-of-Work with Proof-of-Stake with the launch of ETH 2.0. As of today, over 9 million ETH is now deposited in the Ethereum 2.0 deposit contract. This new network will be more energy efficient and reduce the total energy requirements by 99.9%.

    To become a validator in the ETH 2.0, the investor will need to pledge 32ETH to the blockchain.

    Technical Indicators:

    Ultimate oscillator: at 51.13 indicating a BUY

    Relative strength index (14-day): at 60.89 indicating a BUY

    Moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): at 21.90 indicating a BUY

    Bull/Bear power (13-day): at 2.99 indicating a BUY

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  3. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Aim More Upsides
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    Gold price is gaining pace above the $1,805 resistance zone. Crude oil price is correcting gains, but dips might be limited below the $80.00 support.

    Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil

    • Gold price is gaining pace and trading above the $1,820 zone against the US Dollar.
    • There is a key bullish trend line with support near $1,820 on the hourly chart of gold.
    • Crude oil price started a downside correction from the $82.50 resistance zone.
    • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $81.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD.

    Gold Price Technical Analysis

    Gold price started a fresh increase from the $1,784 support zone against the US Dollar. The price gained pace above the $1,800 resistance to move into a positive zone.

    The price settled well above the $1,810 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The price traded as high as $1,828 before there was a downside correction. The price declined below $1,820, but the bulls were active above $1,810.

    Gold Price Hourly Chart
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    A low is formed near $1,812 on FXOpen and the price is now rising. There is also a key bullish trend line with support near $1,820 on the hourly chart of gold. There was a clear move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,828 swing high to $1,812 low.

    It is now trading near the $1,825 level. It is near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1,828 swing high to $1,812 low.

    On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $1,828 level. The main resistance is near the $1,830 level. A close above the $1,830 level could open the doors for a steady increase towards $1,850. The next major resistance sits near the $1,865 level.

    On the downside, an initial support is near the $1,820 level. The first major support is near the $1,810 level. A downside break below the $1,810 support zone may possibly spark a steady decline. In the stated case, the price could test the $1,780 support.

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  4. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    GBP/USD and GBP/JPY Eye Upside Continuation
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    GBP/USD started a fresh increase from the 1.3500 zone and climbed above 1.3600. GBP/JPY is also rising, but it is facing resistance near 156.60.

    Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY

    • The British Pound started a fresh increase above the 1.3500 and 1.3600 resistance levels against the US Dollar.
    • There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3645 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD.
    • GBP/JPY also started a steady increase above the 156.00 and 156.20 resistance levels.
    • There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 156.65 on the hourly chart.

    GBP/USD Technical Analysis

    After a major decline, the British Pound found support near the 1.3500 zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair started a fresh increase above the 1.3550 and 1.3600 resistance levels to move into a positive zone.

    There was also a break above the 1.3680 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It traded as high as 1.3748on FXOpen and is currently correcting gains.

    GBP/USD Hourly Chart
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    There was a minor decline below the 1.3720 level. The pair traded below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3490 swing low to 1.3748 high. On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.3680 level.

    There is also a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3645 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The next major support is near the 1.3620 level.

    The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3490 swing low to 1.3748 high is also near the 1.3620 zone. If there is a break below the 1.3620 support, the pair could test the 1.3550 support. If there are additional losses, the pair could decline towards the 1.3500 level.

    On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 1.3720 level. A close above the 1.3720 level could open the doors for more gains. The next major hurdle is near 1.3750, above which the pair could surge towards 1.3850.

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  5. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    US Consumers Spent Less Than Expected in December
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    The first two trading weeks of the new year are behind us, and investors have received and digested the last pieces of economic data for the just-concluded year. In the first trading week, the NFP (or non-farm payrolls) disappointed – the US economy added fewer jobs in December than the market expected.

    The same can be said about the retail sales data for December released last Friday. Against the expectations of +0.2%, the core retail sales, the ones that exclude automobiles, fell by -2.3%.

    In other words, the US consumer is cautious, and uncertainty is triggering a big pullback in spending. Inflation is eroding demand, and supply issues for goods remain persistent. Moreover, labor supply constraints and omicron fear are affecting consumer spending.

    With only a week away ahead of the Fed’s January meeting, is the Fed going to hike into a slowing economy?
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    Fed signaled the start of a new tightening cycle

    The monetary policy in the US is closely watched by the developed economies. It often acts as a benchmark for other central banks, which quickly follow in the Fed’s footsteps.

    The Fed is currently engaged in tapering its asset purchases. Effectively, it means that it still eases the monetary policy, albeit at a slower pace, despite inflation running hot at four decades high.

    As such, with interest rates at the lower boundary and inflation so high, many fear that the Fed is trapped. The tapering is supposed to end in March, and so the institution cannot raise the federal funds rate at its January meeting.

    However, the January meeting is important as the forward guidance may change. So far, a 25 basis points rate hike is in the cards, but one should not be surprised if the Fed is more aggressive.

    In order to regain credibility in the face of rising inflation, the Fed may decide to shock the market with a 50 basis points rate hike. In any case, the January meeting will bring more details regarding what the Fed might do in March.

    As such, the US dollar should be supported on dips.

    The problem comes from the economic slowdown. By March, the economic growth may weaken considerably, and so the Fed may be forced to hike while the economy cools.

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  6. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    Australian Dollar falls in major move against Euro as consumer confidence hits 30 year low
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    After a week-long period of no movement, the Euro has suddenly leapt into life this morning against the Australian Dollar.

    Suddenly, as the markets in Europe began their trading week, the Euro rose to 1.584 against the Australian Dollar in the pre-opening early hours of the morning, representing a considerable move given that major currencies are not known for their volatility. Indeed, some entire trading strategies have become based on low volatility as this has been the status quo for many years now.

    At the beginning of this month, the EURAUD pair was trading at 1.558, therefore a rise to 1.584 is, by comparison to general movements among major currency pairs, absolutely massive.

    Whilst the Euro's move against the Australian Dollar is the largest currency move of the day, it is worth noting that the British Pound made a similar gain over the Australian Dollar, for similar reasons.

    It is possible that part of this lack of confidence in the Australian Dollar may come from the continual hectoring that the Australian government appears to be engaging in toward its businesses and citizens.

    For example, yesterday it was reported that Australian citizens returning from overseas trips have been asked to hand their smartphones over to the Australian Border Force, with one particular report having stated that a man and his partner were instructed to write their phone passcodes on a piece of paper, before the border officials took their phones into another room.

    This is the latest in a long line of draconian restrictions and surveillance efforts being carried out by the Australian government, which has become known as one of the most stringent on earth when it comes to enforcing curbs over Covid 19, and curbs, data security and privacy issues, and a seemingly illiberal position taken by government are not often viewed as favorable conditions for a thriving economy.

    Such curbs have therefore dented confidence in the Australian economy, and cast doubts over its position as a liberal and poltically free country going forward.

    It could be that as parts of Europe still have some restrictions whereas others have none, trade between Euro-denominated countries and other regions of the world is becoming a bit easier, whereas Australia, whose main trading partner is China and in which personal movement and what could have been considered the normal way of life before March 2020 has shown no sign of return.

    The EURAUD pair has moved 0.54% since yesterday, which was already an upward turn over Friday's close at just over 1.57.

    The real elephant in the room is that Australia's Consumer Confidence index, which is used to measure how buoyant the retail part of the economy is, is at a very low point.

    Figures were revealed for January 2022 this morning and it shows that many Australians are avoiding spending. In fact, confidence is at its lowest point since 1992, and just last week alone, Australian consumer confidence fell by 7.6%, sinking to its lowest rate since October 2020.

    Data for all of Australia's states fell below the neutral confidence level of 10o, and to accompany this negativity, all of the subindices were also down, including current financial conditions having declined by 11.3%. The number of respondents to the confidence index survey who stated that now was “the time to buy a major household item” also reduced by 11.4%.

    Things are very different in today's Australia compared to how they were at the beginning of 2020, and the terse relationship with China combined with the ongoing government position on Covid are weighing heavily on the minds of investors looking at the immediate future.

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  7. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    BTCUSD and XRPUSD Technical Analysis – 18th JAN 2022
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    BTCUSD: Double Top Pattern Below $44,000

    Bitcoin was unable to carry the bullish momentum seen last week and touched a high of $44,432 on 13th January, after which the decline started which continues to push its prices lower in the European trading session today.

    Today, BTCUSD touched an intraday low of $41,458 and continues to remain under heavy selling pressure by the global investors.

    We can clearly see a double top pattern below the $44,000 handle which signifies the end of an uptrend and a shift towards a downtrend.

    Stoch and StochRSI is indicating an OVERBOUGHT level which means that in the immediate short-term, a decline in the prices is expected.

    The relative strength index is at 42, indicating a WEAKER demand for bitcoin and selling pressure in the markets.

    Bitcoin is now moving below its 100 hourly simple moving average and below its 200 hourly exponential moving average.

    The average true range is indicating high market volatility with a bearish zone formation.

    • Bitcoin trend reversal is seen below $44,000
    • Williams percent range is indicating an OVERBOUGHT level
    • The price is now trading just above its pivot levels of $41,829
    • All of the moving averages are giving a STRONG SELL market signal

    Bitcoin: Bearish Reversal Below $44,000 Confirmed
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    Bitcoin is forming a bearish reversal pattern as the prices continue to decline in the European trading session today.

    The immediate short-term outlook for bitcoin is bearish, medium-term outlook is neutral, and the long-term outlook remains bullish.

    All the major technical indicators are giving a STRONG SELL signal, which means that in the immediate short-term we should expect targets of $41,000 and $40,000.

    The price of BTCUSD is now facing its classic support level of $41,205 and Fibonacci support level of $41,683, after which the path towards $40,000 will get cleared.

    In the last 24hrs, BTCUSD has gone DOWN by 2.28% with a price change of 977$, and has a 24hr trading volume of USD 23.214 billion. We can see an increase of 16.29% in the trading volume as compared to yesterday. This increase can be attributed to the increased selling pressure seen in the cryptocurrency exchanges globally.

    The Week Ahead

    The price of Bitcoin continues to slide without any visible upside correction. This is also due to the bearish trend which started below the $44,000 handle.

    At these levels many of the new and long-term investors are also expected to enter into the markets for long-term gains.

    If the prices continue to remain above the important support level of $40,000, we could see an upside correction towards the $44,000 handle in the next week.

    The ON-chain metrics are also suggesting that the price of bitcoin is expected to touch the $40,000 handle after which could see a bullish pattern with a rally towards $45,000.

    Technical Indicators:

    Commodity channel index (14-day): at -63.44 indicating a SELL

    Average directional change (14-day): at 33.49 indicating a SELL

    Rate of price change: at -0.268 indicating a SELL

    Moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): at -183.30 indicating a SELL

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  8. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD and EUR/JPY Show Bearish Signs
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    EUR/USD started a fresh decline below the 1.1420 support. EUR/JPY is declining and could accelerate lower below 129.70.

    Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY

    • The Euro started a fresh decline after it faced sellers near the 1.1480 level.
    • There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 1.1405 on the hourly chart.
    • EUR/JPY gained bearish momentum below the 130.50 and 130.20 support levels.
    • There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 130.90 on the hourly chart.

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    The Euro gained pace above the 1.1400 and 1.1450 resistance levels against the US Dollar. However, the EUR/USD pair struggled to gain pace above 1.1480 and started a fresh decline.

    The pair traded below the 1.1420 support and settled below the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a clear break below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1284 swing low to 1.1482 high (formed on FXOpen).

    EUR/USD Hourly Chart
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    Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 1.1405 on the hourly chart. The pair is now trading below the 1.1350 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average.

    It is now trading near the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1284 swing low to 1.1482 high. Any more losses might send the pair towards the 1.1280 support zone. On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 1.1350 level.

    The next major resistance is near the 1.1380 level. The main resistance is forming near the 1.1400 level. A clear break above the 1.1400 resistance could push EUR/USD towards 1.1450. If the bulls remain in action, the pair could rise above the 1.1480 resistance zone in the near term.

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  9. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    ETHUSD and LTCUSD Technical Analysis – 20th JAN, 2022
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    ETHUSD: Double Bottom Pattern Above $3,000

    Ethereum was unable to sustain its bullish momentum this week, and after touching a high of $3,409 on 12th January, started declining against the US dollar.

    ETHUSD touched an intraday low of $3,080 in the Asian trading session today, after which we can see some consolidation in its prices above the $3,000 handle.

    We can clearly see a double-bottom pattern above the $3,000 handle which is a bullish reversal pattern and signifies the end of a downtrend and a shift towards an uptrend.

    ETH is now trading just below its pivot levels of $3,131 and is moving in a consolidation channel. The price of ETHUSD is now testing its classic resistance levels of $3,138 and Fibonacci resistance level of $3,146, after which the path towards $3,300 will get cleared.

    The relative strength index is at 49, indicating a NEUTRAL market and a move towards the consolidation phase after the decline.

    We have detected an MA 20 crossover pattern above the $3,124 level which signifies a bullish trend reversal in the short-term.

    Some of the technical indicators are giving a BUY signal.

    ETH is now trading below the 100 hourly and 200 hourly simple moving averages.

    • Ethereum consolidation is seen above the $3,000 mark
    • Short-term range appears to be NEUTRAL
    • Ultimate oscillator is indicating a NEUTRAL market
    • Average true range is indicating LESSER market volatility

    Ether Consolidation Channel Seen Above $3,000
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    ETHUSD continues to move into a consolidation channel above the $3l000 handle in the European trading session today.

    Most of investors are not entering the markets and are waiting for a bullish momentum.

    The commodity channel index is indicating a NEUTRAL market, and the overall sentiment is also neutral at these levels.

    We are also due for a major upwards correction in the ETHUSD which could manifest in the form of a rally taking its prices close to the $4,000 handle.

    We can see a mildly bullish channel in progression today which is expected to push the prices of ETHUSD towards the $3,300 level.

    ETH has gained 1.47% with a price change of 45.44$ in the past 24hrs, and has a trading volume of 11.474 billion USD.

    We can see a decrease of 16.90% in the total trading volume in the last 24 hrs., which appears to be normal.

    The Week Ahead

    Ethereum is now approaching its important support level of $3,000 which will decide whether we will see a bullish reversal in the markets.

    If the price of ETHUSD continues to remain above the $3,000 handle, as we can see today, it will signify a bullish reversal with an upside target of $3,300 to $3,500 in the next week.

    The immediate short-term outlook for Ether has turned NEUTRAL, the medium-term outlook is MILDLY BULLISH, and the long-term outlook for Ether is BULLISH with a RALLY formation towards $4,000.

    MACD has indicated a bullish crossover which is also giving a BUY signal at the current market levels.

    This week, we can expect to see $3,300 to $3,400, and in the next week Ether is expected to trade at levels above $3,500.

    Technical Indicators:

    Williams percent range: at -37.39 indicating a BUY

    Stoch (9,6): at 71.39 indicating a BUY

    Moving averages convergence divergence (12,26): at 1.75 indicating a BUY

    StochRSI (14): at 58.95 indicating a BUY

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  10. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    AUD/USD and NZD/USD Remain At Risk
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    AUD/USD started a fresh decline from the 0.7275 zone. NZD/USD is also declining and there is a risk of a move below the 0.6720 support.

    Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD

    • The Aussie Dollar started another decline from well above the 0.7250 level against the US Dollar.
    • There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.7200 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.
    • NZD/USD also declined sharply below the 0.6750 support zone.
    • There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.6790 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD.

    AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Aussie Dollar struggled to clear the 0.7275 level against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair started a fresh decline below the 0.7250 support level to move into a bearish zone.

    The bears were able to push the pair below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7170 swing low to 0.7275 high (formed on FXOpen). Besides, there was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.7200 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD.

    AUD/USD Hourly Chart
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    The pair settled below the 0.7220 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is now consolidating near the 0.7185 level.

    The 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7170 swing low to 0.7275 high is also protecting losses. On the downside, an initial support is near the 0.7170 level. If there is a downside break below the 0.7170 support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.7125 level.

    Any more downsides might send the pair toward the 0.7100 level. On the upside, the pair is facing resistance near the 0.7210 level.

    The next major resistance is near the 0.7240 level. A close above the 0.7240 level could start a steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance could be 0.7300.

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