Daily Market Analysis By Fxopen

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by FXOpen Trader, Oct 19, 2021.

  1. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    Will rate hikes end when 2023 ends?
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    Finally, after a seemingly endless period of interest rate increases by the US Federal Reserve over the past few years, there is some degree of inkling that the rate rises may come to an end at the end of this year.

    This morning, some mainstream media speculation has surfaced, considering that Federal Reserve officials are finally looking at making no further interest rate increases in 2024.

    Currently, this is pure speculation based on some recent sentiment from the central bankers, and there has been some mention of a potential cessation in increasing interest rates in the last quarter of this year, which did not come to fruition. Instead, the current monetary policy continued, despite inflation now being very much under control and nowhere near the double-digit figures of two years ago, which caused the Federal Reserve (and other central banks in Western markets) to increase interest rates.

    Therefore, the currency markets have responded accordingly. Rather than a sudden rise in the value of the US dollar, the British pound has been forging ahead.

    In the period between November 9 and December 1, the British pound surged against the US dollar, going from 1.2290 to 1.27. Such gains are relatively rare among major currencies, and quite often, just a 1-cent difference is considered a notable movement.

    VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

    Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
     
  2. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar Stable Despite Weak Employment Data
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    Yesterday, statistics from the United States on the dynamics of open vacancies from JOLTS were published. In October, their number decreased by 617.0k to 8.733 million, which turned out to be the lowest result since the beginning of 2021, while analysts expected a reduction from 9.35 million to 9.30 million. Further cooling of the American labour market, along with the weakening of inflation risks, serves as a factor in favour of the expected completion of the cycle of tightening monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. Some experts suggest that interest rate reductions will begin as early as March 2024.

    November data on business activity in the services sector provided support to the American currency: the index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) rose from 51.8 points to 52.7 points, which turned out to be better than forecasts of 52.0 points. The US dollar index remains at 103.400.

    On Friday, final labour market statistics for November will be published: analysts suggest that the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector will increase from 150.0k to 185.0k, unemployment will remain at 3.9%, and the average hourly wages will increase from 0.2% to 0.3% in monthly terms.
    EUR/USD

    According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the pair shows mixed dynamics, consolidating near the 1.0800 mark and new local lows from November 14, updated the day before. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0836, a break higher could trigger a move towards 1.0878. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0800, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0731.

    European statistics on business activity turned out to be positive: the indicator in the non-manufacturing sector increased from 47.8 points to 48.7 points, exceeding expectations at 48.2 points, and the composite index - from 46.5 points to 47.6 points with a forecast of 47.1 points. The German services business activity index rose from 48.2 points to 49.6 points, and the composite index from 45.9 points to 47.8 points. Indicators remained stagnant, confirming that the eurozone economy is approaching recession, despite some recovery in consumption during the Christmas holidays.

    The focus of investors today will be on October statistics from the eurozone on the dynamics of retail sales: in monthly terms, the indicator is expected to grow by 0.2% after a decrease of 0.3% a month earlier, and in annual terms - a decrease of 1.1% after -2,9%.

    The downward channel is maintained. Now, the price is in the middle of the channel and may continue to decline.

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    Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
     
  3. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    S&P 500 Analysis: Why Santa May Have Problems Rallying
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    It is traditionally believed that the Santa Rally occurs at the end of December and the first days of January, but according to many opinions it is acceptable to think that it begins much earlier.

    At the beginning of December, the values of the S&P 500 index came close to the highs of the year in the area of 4,611, but have declined to date, forming a number of bearish signs:

    → the candle on November 29 has a long upper shadow — a sign of seller activity;
    → the same can be said about yesterday’s candle;
    → candles on December 1-4 form a bearish engulfing pattern;
    → all of the listed candles form a head-and-shoulders pattern (shown by the letters SHS).

    That is, the chart indicates activation of sellers near the yearly high — and this is a problem that can affect the so-called Santa Claus rally (the active channel, shown in blue, actualizes the theme associated with the rally).

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    Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
     
  4. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    AUD/JPY Analysis: Rate Falls to Important Support
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    This morning, the AUD/JPY rate dropped below 95.2 yen per Australian dollar for the first time since late October.

    The weakening of the AUD was contributed by:
    → negative news regarding the Chinese economy. The Hang Seng Index set its 2023 low yesterday;
    → Australian GDP data published yesterday, which is growing at a weaker-than-expected pace.

    And the strengthening of the yen occurs against the backdrop of expectations of an increase in interest rates in Japan, which intensified according to the statement of the head of the Bank of Japan. Kazuo Ueda said yesterday the central bank has several options for targeting interest rates once it gets short-term borrowing costs out of negative territory.

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    Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
     
  5. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    NIKKEI Analysis: Japanese Stock Market Outlook
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    In the first half of 2023, the Japanese stock market was dominated by bullish sentiment due to (still) negative interest rates — while the rest of the G7 countries raised their rates to combat inflation.

    The NIKKEI-225 index grew by 30% in the first half of the year. But then the balance of supply and demand was achieved, judging by the daily chart, where a range was formed (shown in blue), framing the index’s fluctuations in the second half of the year. Judging by the change in the slope of the bullish trend lines, demand was sufficient to maintain the price at the lower limit of the range, but not enough to go beyond the upper limit.

    The situation is fundamentally reversed. While interest rates in the US, Europe and elsewhere are thought to be near the top, there is growing talk in Japan that the central bank will begin raising them after years of being stuck in negative territory:
    → Bloomberg: The next meeting of the Bank of Japan will be held on December 19 – speculation is growing that the Bank will move away from negative interest rates as early as this month.
    → Reuters: 22 of 26 economists (85%) surveyed in November believe the Bank of Japan will abandon its negative interest rate policy by the end of next year.

    The winding down of ultra-loose monetary policy could have a negative impact on the growth of Japanese companies - accordingly, the growing bearish sentiment is reflected in the index quote. Since the end of November, the NIKKEI 225 has dropped almost 5%.

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    VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

    Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
     
  6. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    Watch FXOpen's 4 - 8 December Weekly Market Wrap Video

    Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: AUD/JPY, RATE HIKES, S&P 500, WTI Oil

    Get the latest scoop on the week's hottest headlines, all in one convenient video. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he breaks down the most significant news reports and shares his expert insights.

    • AUD/JPY: Rate Falls to Important Support #AUDJPY
    • Will rate hikes end when 2023 ends? #RateHikes
    • S&P 500: Why Santa May Have Problems Rallying #SantaRally
    • WTI oil price drops to lowest level since July #wtioil

    Stay in the know and empower yourself with our short, yet power-packed video. Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

    Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

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    FXOpen YouTube


    Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

    #fxopen #fxopenyoutube #fxopenuk #fxopenint #weeklyvideo
     
  7. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    Sharp Change in BTC/USD Price: Causes and Consequences
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    On Monday morning, the price of bitcoin fell sharply. As the chart shows, the BTC/USD rate fell below 42,000 on Monday during the Asian session. According to Coinglass, the decline resulted in about $400 million worth of positions being liquidated by about 100,000 traders on cryptocurrency exchanges. So far, the price has found support around the 41,200 level, where the lower border of the ascending channel lies (shown in blue).

    What are the reasons for such a sharp decline? From a fundamental point of view, there are no triggers with the media associated with, for example, statements by officials. What then?

    First of all, the idea comes with low liquidity in the financial markets at the beginning of Monday in the Asian session. A recent example is the gold market, when the price of the metal jumped at the opening of trading to $2,130, but then quickly fell to $2,060. By the way, we wrote on Tuesday that the bears may try to push the price of gold below the psychological level of $2,000. The scenario is still coming true.

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    Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
     
  8. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    Crude Oil Ends Freefall, but Is It Back in the Black?
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    In the early stretch of December, the WTI Crude Oil market experienced a sudden and substantial downturn, sending shockwaves through the financial landscape. From a robust $77.71 per barrel on November 29, the value plunged to just over $69.64 per barrel on December 6 at FXOpen. Analysts, in response to this decline, have employed dramatic language, with some describing the situation as a 'freefall.'

    While the recent dip below the $70 mark raised concerns, a mild recovery has been observed, closing trading yesterday on the US market at $71.40 per barrel at FXOpen. Although this figure still falls short of the late November high, it highlights the current volatility in the oil market.

    VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

    Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
     
  9. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY Analysis: Dollar on the Rise amid Good US Employment Data
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    The US Federal Reserve will publish its interest rate decision on Wednesday, December 13th. The American regulator is not expected to take steps towards tightening or easing monetary policy, given the strong November labour market report published last Friday. Thus, the number of new jobs created by the American economy outside the agricultural sector increased by 199.0k after an increase of 150.0k in the previous month, while analysts expected 180.0k. At the same time, the unemployment rate decreased from 3.9 % to 3.7%, and the growth rate of average hourly wages accelerated from 0.2% to 0.4%.
    The dollar was further supported by an increase in the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan in December from 61.3 points to 69.4 points, which turned out to be significantly higher than expected 62.0 points.
    EUR/USD

    According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, the pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 1.0760. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0789, a break higher could trigger a move towards 1.0842. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0770, a break below could take the pair towards 1.0714.

    Activity in the market remains quite low, as investors are in no hurry to open new trading positions ahead of the meetings of the world's leading central banks this week. So, on Thursday, meetings of the ECB, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of England will be held. Investors expect all regulators to maintain current monetary policy without changes, and special attention will be paid to the comments of their representatives, as well as the general tone of their statements.

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    VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

    Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
     
  10. FXOpen Trader

    FXOpen Trader Senior Investor

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    Market Analysis: Financial Markets Waiting for Important News
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    Get ready for a surge in volatility in the coming days, because:
    → today at 16:30 GMT+3: news will be published on inflation in the USA;
    → tomorrow at 22:00-22:30 GMT+3: news from the Federal Reserve on the interest rate will be published;
    → on Thursday: news from the central banks of Europe, Great Britain, Switzerland will be published.

    Add in geopolitical tensions, the possibility of Biden's impeachment, news on unemployment and retail sales in the US and other factors affecting prices — this week is likely to be very turbulent before financial market participants go on holiday.

    The greatest optimism reigns in the stock market. The S&P 500 index updated its maximum for the year. Because investors believe that inflation will continue to cool, and over time the Federal Reserve will cut rates, giving new impetus to corporate growth. This expectation is probably already factored into the current price, so deviations from expectations can trigger unexpected price movements.

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    VIEW FULL ANALYSIS VISIT - FXOpen Blog...

    Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
     

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