Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

The main events by the morning: February 6

Saudi Arabia increased the price of Arab Light oil for Asia by $2.40 per barrel in March, reaching the maximum price increase since August 2022. This is due to higher premiums for Middle Eastern raw materials and improved refining margins in the region. Sanctions against Russian oil have forced Asian refiners to look for alternatives, which has bolstered demand for Middle Eastern supplies.

The Central Bank of India may reduce the key rate by 25 bps to 6.25% following a two-day meeting. This will help support the weakening economy against the backdrop of slowing inflation and a record low exchange rate of the rupee. The yield on 10-year bonds fell by 16.5 bps in three weeks, amounting to 6.664% at the close of trading on Wednesday, due to expectations of policy easing in February.

The United States demands compensation for assistance to Ukraine. Washington is ready to finance Ukraine only if the costs are compensated through rare earth metals, which Kiev has agreed to. Conditions include low taxes and mitigation of environmental regulations. However, key deposits are under Russian control. The total value of Ukrainian minerals is estimated at $15 trillion, but the complexity of mining makes projects of little interest to investors.

The US trade deficit reached $1.2 trillion in 2024. This was due to increased imports ($4.1 trillion) and limited exports ($3.2 trillion) against a strong dollar. The growth in services exports offset the weak growth in goods. The deficit with China, the EU and Mexico has become the largest. Trump may introduce new protectionist measures. In response, China imposed duties on $20 billion and launched an investigation against Google.

The leadership of the Panama Canal denied the statement of the US State Department on the abolition of fees for the passage of American government vessels. In a message posted on the social network X, it is noted that no changes have been made to transit duties. Earlier, the US State Department claimed that exemption from fees would bring economic benefits, but the channel's administration denied this.

 

"Golden" Steps: Is Gold Rising Higher and Higher?

Gold prices are poised for further gains as they capitalize on heightened geopolitical tensions. In the current environment, gold continues to climb, reaching new highs and overcoming various obstacles.

Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe-haven asset, driven by fears of an escalating trade war. Additional support for gold prices comes from expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and the persistently low U.S. Treasury yields.

After a minor dip on Thursday, February 6, gold regained positive momentum and remained near its historical peak on Friday, February 7. Earlier this week, gold reached a record high of $2,882 per ounce, fueled by uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies. On Friday, February 7, gold was trading at $2,861, trying to push even higher.

Geopolitical and Economic Drivers Supporting Gold
The escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, along with concerns about the potential negative consequences of Trump's aggressive trade policies, are increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold. This demand has pushed gold prices closer to record highs, gaining momentum ahead of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Market expectations that the Fed will continue cutting rates in 2025 are keeping U.S. Treasury yields at low levels. However, rather than attracting large buyers for the dollar, this low yield environment has provided further support for gold prices. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has dropped to its lowest level since December 12, 2024, amid anticipations that the Fed will implement two rate cuts by the end of 2025. This sentiment remains favorable for gold.

Technical Outlook: Gold (XAU/USD)
The technical chart indicates that the recent overnight rebound and subsequent price increase confirm a short-term bullish outlook for gold. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that the market is slightly overbought, which advises bullish traders to proceed with caution. Experts recommend waiting for a period of short-term consolidation before expecting a continuation of the uptrend.

According to the technical chart, the $2855 horizontal zone, along with the overnight low near $2834, will serve as short-term support for gold. Below this, the $2815-$2714 range is also a key area to watch. Additionally, the $2800 mark is significant; a breakthrough could trigger technical selling. In such a scenario, the XAU/USD pair may pull back to the resistance breakout point at $2773-$2772. This level coincides with the weekly low, and a strong breakout could lead to a more significant correction.

Citi Research Raises Gold Price Forecasts for 2025
Amid the current market conditions, Citi Research has improved its short- and medium-term gold price forecasts for 2025, citing trade wars and geopolitical tensions linked to Trump's administration. Additionally, central bank gold purchases have also contributed to the revised outlook.

In their latest report, Citi analysts raised their three-month gold price forecast from $2,800 to $3,000 per ounce. For 2025, analysts expect gold to reach $2,900 per ounce.

"It appears that under Trump 2.0, the gold bull market will gain momentum as trade wars and geopolitical uncertainty drive further reserve diversification and dedollarization. Additionally, these factors support gold demand in the official sector across emerging markets," Citi Research emphasized.

U.S. Jobs Data Could Impact Gold and Dollar Demand
Market participants are waiting for the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Preliminary forecasts indicate that 170,000 jobs were added in January, a decline from 256,000 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is expected to remain around 4.1%. These figures are crucial for shaping the Fed's monetary policy outlook and influencing both dollar demand and gold price dynamics.

The ongoing trade conflict also significantly affects gold prices. This week, former President Trump imposed an additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports. In response, China quickly implemented retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, effectively reigniting the trade war between the world's two largest economies. Beijing introduced tariffs on specific U.S. goods, indicating a new phase in the trade conflict, which further supports elevated gold prices.

 

Bitcoin still far away from bottom?

The leading digital asset has slightly declined over the past few days but remains afloat. Bitcoin is striving to recover lost ground. Analysts say that BTC is succeeding.

On Monday, February 10, Bitcoin opened with a drop followed by a recovery. The asset traded at $96,752 in the morning before rising to $97,650.

Over the past 24 hours, the BTC market saw minor recovery after a bearish trading week. Following a sharp drop to $91,000 on Monday, February 3, analysts and market participants feared that Bitcoin had reached a local bottom. However, historically, a rebound follows such declines. There is no consensus on BTC's near-term trajectory, but many believe that the flagship asset is far from reaching a true bottom.

According to crypto expert Ali Martinez, now is an ideal time to buy Bitcoin. Using CryptoQuant data, Martinez analyzed optimal entry points for investors. The realized price of all BTC purchased in the last three months is $97,354, indicating that the market's total loss is less than 1%, given that Bitcoin is currently trading at $97,000.

However, Martinez notes that the most favorable buying conditions have historically occurred when traders were down 12%. With Bitcoin's average market loss under 1%, conditions may not yet be ideal for new buyers, as there is significant potential for further correction. Martinez's estimates suggests that Bitcoin is far from a local bottom despite the recent decline.

Preliminary forecasts indicate the next local bottom for BTC could be $85,600, which would create an optimal accumulation zone for investors looking for higher returns.

However, new variables—such as strong institutional interest and corporate accumulation via spot ETFs—could prevent Bitcoin from reaching these lows and instead spark the next bullish cycle.

Miners' actions could lead to Bitcoin weakness

For the past four days, Bitcoin has traded near $96,500, showing no significant movement. A potential concern is a sell-off from Bitcoin miners, which could exert downward pressure on BTC's price.

Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, believes that the current stagnation in Bitcoin's price could be driven by miners offloading their holdings.

BTC dropped 2.70% over the past week, but monthly returns remain positive at 3.76%. Despite strong buyer support near $96,000, a breakout above $97,000 remains elusive—a sign that Bitcoin could reverse if bearish pressure intensifies.

Bitcoin faces challenges amid macro turbulence

Bitcoin's sluggish performance in February is partly due to unfavorable macroeconomic factors. Global market turbulence intensified due to US tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump and escalating trade tensions between Washington and Beijing. The initial sharp market reaction led to over $2 billion in liquidations across digital assets, but crypto markets have since stabilized.

Bitcoin is now holding steady around its $96,000 support level.

Market sentiment & Bitcoin forecast

According to CoinCodex analysts, investors remain uncertain, with the Fear and Greed Index currently at 44 ("Fear"). Despite current stagnation, CoinCodex experts believe Bitcoin will soon enter a bullish phase.

Short-term BTC projections: In five days, Bitcoin is expected to reach $106,613. In one month, BTC could trade at $129,434.

Long-term BTC forecasts (3 months): Bitcoin could rise to $158,992, according to some analysts.

With a market capitalization of $1.92 trillion, Bitcoin remains the largest digital asset, dominating 60.6% of the crypto market.

Bearish miner data signals potential downtrend

IntoTheBlock's miner reserves indicator presents a bearish outlook for Bitcoin. The reason? A sharp decline in BTC reserves among mining companies. This metric tracks daily BTC balance changes in wallets controlled by major miners and mining pools. Between February 4 and February 8, miner reserves dropped from 1.94 million BTC to 1.91 million BTC. This resulted in an outflow of approximately 30,000 BTC (~$3 billion), increasing short-term BTC supply and intensifying selling pressure. If miners continue offloading BTC reserves at this rate, Bitcoin may struggle to stay above its $96,000 support level. The current trend raises the risk of BTC falling to $94,500 or lower.

Bitcoin at crossroads: bullish rebound or further decline?

The short-term outlook for Bitcoin remains uncertain. If miners reduce selling pressure and Bitcoin breaks above $97,000, a new bullish trend could emerge.

However, if the opposite scenario unfolds, BTC could remain stagnant or enter a short-term bearish phase.

Bitcoin is currently at a pivotal moment, experts say. Traders and investors are closely monitoring miners' activity and macroeconomic developments to respond swiftly to any market shifts.
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The main events by the morning: February 11

US President Donald Trump has approved duties of 25% on steel and aluminum imports, including shipments from Canada and Mexico. The new tariffs will take effect on March 12 and will cover all imports of these metals. According to Trump, the measures are designed to stimulate domestic production and increase employment in the country, and duty rates may be increased in the future.

Gold prices set a new record, reaching $2,942 per ounce, amid the imposition of US tariffs. Futures rose to $2,949, briefly rising to $2,968. Trump's measures increased concerns about inflation and trade conflicts. Investors are waiting for CPI and PPI data in the United States, as well as a speech by Fed Chairman Powell.

Elon Musk and a consortium of investors have offered $97.4 billion to buy the non-profit organization that runs OpenAI. Musk, through a lawyer, stated the need to return OpenAI to the original idea of open source. Sam Altman, the head of OpenAI, replied on the social network X: «No thanks, but we can buy Twitter for $9.74 billion.» In 2022, Musk acquired Twitter, renamed X, for $44 billion.

The volume of Ethereum shorts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), increased by 40% in a week, and by 500% since November 2024. This is no longer similar to classic hedging through futures. There are two possible scenarios: either the market is waiting for a powerful short squeeze, or the funds are preparing in advance for a serious fall. The data is provided by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Shares of China's largest steel companies, including Baoshan Iron and Steel, HBIS Co and Angang Steel, fell amid new U.S. tariffs that increased uncertainty in steel exports. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, steel prices also declined by more than 1%. Despite the limited impact on exports to the United States, overall trade tensions continue to rise.

According to the results of 2024, Russia turned out to be the country with the lowest unemployment among the G20. The figure was only 2.3%. The unemployment rate rose the most in Canada, and decreased in Brazil.

 

Jerome Powell's Speech Fails to Impress Currency Traders

The euro and pound responded in a rather unusual way to yesterday's comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who stated that the central bank sees no need to rush with interest rate adjustments. This reaffirmed the view that Fed policymakers will exercise patience before further cutting borrowing costs.Despite Powell's caution, the euro and pound strengthened, while the dollar lost ground. This could be due to today's inflation data, which many forecasts suggest may show weaker price pressures than previously expected.
"Since our policy position is now significantly less restrictive than it was before, and the economy remains strong, we do not need to rush to adjust our policy position," Powell said on Tuesday at a meeting of the Senate Banking Committee. "We know that cutting rates too quickly or too much can hinder progress in the fight against inflation," he said. "At the same time, reducing policy constraints too slowly or too little may unduly weaken economic activity and employment."

Traders mostly kept their rate expectations unchanged, suggesting Powell's remarks did not shift the outlook significantly. Powell's statements closely resembled his January comments, following the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged.

In 2024, the Fed cut rates at three consecutive meetings, but policymakers have since signaled a pause until inflation declines further. The labor market remains a key factor in the Fed's cautious approach. Powell described the job market as "broadly balanced" and not a significant source of inflationary pressure. When asked whether the U.S. economy is experiencing a "soft landing," Powell declined to make a judgment.

The latest employment data painted a picture of a slowing but solid labor market. Employers added 143,000 jobs in January, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4%. Inflation, as measured by the Fed, remained above the 2.6% target for the end of 2024. Powell said inflation was "slightly higher" than the Central bank's 2% target.

Today's CPI report will be crucial for the dollar's next move. If inflation growth slows, the dollar could decline further. Powell hinted that inflation expectations remain anchored, but also acknowledged risks from Trump's new trade tariffs. The recent tariff hikes on Chinese goods, steel, and aluminum imports—as well as threats of additional tariffs on Canada and Mexico—could put upward pressure on inflation.

These measures could impact economic growth and labor market conditions.

As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers need to break above 1.0380 to target 1.0410. A move beyond 1.0410 could extend gains to 1.0440, but this would require support from large market players. The ultimate bullish target is 1.0470. 1.0340 is a crucial support level where large buyers may step in. If no buying interest appears, further declines could lead to a retest of 1.0310 or even 1.0280 for potential long positions.

As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break above 1.2460 to aim for 1.2505. A breakout beyond 1.2505 will be challenging, but the next target would be 1.2545. Bears will attempt to regain control at 1.2415. A break below 1.2415 could seriously weaken bullish momentum, leading GBP/USD toward 1.2375 and possibly 1.2330.
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The main events by the morning: February 13

The UK economy grew by 0.1% in the fourth quarter. This exceeded forecasts for a 0.1% reduction. Growth was zero in the third quarter. The Bank of England lowered its base rate to 4.5% amid weak growth and lower inflation. Inflation is expected to increase to 3.7% by the end of 2025, but a return to the 2% target is projected by 2027. The GDP growth forecast for 2023 has been lowered to 0.75%.

In January, the US budget deficit increased by $128.64 billion, while in December it increased by $86.732 billion. Analysts had expected an increase of $88.1 billion. In the first third of the fiscal year, the deficit reached a record $840 billion due to increased spending on healthcare, social security, payments to veterans and interest on the national debt.

After the conversation with Putin, Trump hinted at the possibility of a meeting between the leaders of the two countries. He noted that a personal meeting with the Russian president could take place «in the not too distant future.» However, the exact date has not yet been determined. Trump also stated that he did not consider it appropriate for Ukraine to join NATO.

OPEC adjusted its forecast for non-OPEC+ oil production for 2025 to 54.21 million barrels per day from the previous 54.28 million. In 2024, production amounted to 53.2 million, and in 2026 it is expected to increase to 55.21 million. The forecast of global demand has been maintained: in 2025 it will reach 105.2 million barrels per day, compared with 103.75 million in 2024, and in 2026 it will grow to 106.63 million.

Trump allowed American businessmen to bribe foreign officials. He signed a decree temporarily suspending the Law on Combating Corruption Abroad, which has been in force for almost 50 years. The Ministry of Justice has been instructed to review cases related to the law and prepare new instructions in 180 days. The decision is explained by the desire to strengthen the position of American companies in the global market and increase their competitiveness.
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The main events by the morning: February 17

Japan's economy is showing signs of stagnation. By the end of 2024, the country's GDP growth was only 0.1%, which is significantly lower than in 2023, when the economy grew by 1.5%. Nominal GDP, reflecting the size of the economy at current prices, reached 609.29 trillion yen (about $4 trillion), exceeding the 600 trillion yen mark for the first time in history.

The telephone conversation between Putin and Trump on February 12 had a positive impact on the stock markets of Russia and Europe. Following the results of the week that ended on the day of the negotiations, European equity funds raised a record $2.5 billion, the highest volume in the last two years. The Russian market also showed growth on the back of this news.

Electronics imports to Russia showed a decrease for the first time in two years. According to market participants, the reduction was up to 3%. Previously, a similar trend was observed only in 2014 and 2022. Experts attribute this to difficulties in making payments to China and the high key interest rate. Experts predict that in 2025, the reduction in imports will continue, especially in the segment of household appliances, where the drop may reach 30%.

The reforms initiated by Donald Trump and Elon Musk have led to a sharp increase in unemployment in the US capital. Since the Republicans came to power, about 4,000 Washington residents, which is about 0.5% of the city's population, have applied for unemployment benefits. The reason was the reduction of the government staff and the introduction of an early retirement program through a «buyout.»

The United States and Belarus are preparing a «grand bargain» that will include the lifting of sanctions. According to the terms of the deal, Minsk releases «a large number of political prisoners» and Washington lifts sanctions. In recent months, Lukashenko has already granted amnesty to more than 200 people who were convicted after the protests in Belarus in 2020.

 

Gold prices rise amid escalating trade disputes

On Monday, gold prices rose slightly after a sharp decline at the end of last week. The current quote for spot gold is $2,898 per ounce. Despite the local weakening, the asset is still near record highs in the area of $2,960.

Interest in the precious metal remains due to its status as a «safe haven» amid ongoing uncertainty around trade tariffs and interest rate changes in the United States.

Over the past two weeks, gold has repeatedly updated its record values. The rise in prices for the precious metal was the result of increased interest from investors seeking to minimize risks. This happened after Donald Trump imposed 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports into the United States.

In addition, the head of the White House announced his intention to introduce additional tariffs in response to the actions of the country's leading economic partners. Despite this, such measures are expected no earlier than April.

 

Where Have Dollar Buyers Gone?

Yesterday, President Donald Trump's statements about new trade tariffs were largely ignored by dollar buyers. However, risk-asset sellers were also notably absent.

During his speech, Trump announced that he would likely impose tariffs on imported cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceutical products, with rates expected to be around 25%. These tariffs are likely to take effect on April 2. While such a move would escalate the ongoing trade war, the market showed little reaction.

It is worth recalling that Trump had previously announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, set to take effect in March. "I'll probably tell you on April 2, but it's going to be somewhere around 25%," Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago club when asked about the planned auto tariffs.

Regarding tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, Trump stated: "The tariffs will be 25% or higher, and they will increase significantly over the year." He explained that he wants to give companies time to adjust before introducing new import taxes. "Let companies come to the United States and open their factories here, and then there won't be any tariffs," Trump added.

Impact on the Auto Industry
Experts warn that new auto tariffs could have widespread consequences for the industry. Last year, around 8 million cars and light trucks were imported into the US, accounting for nearly half of all car sales.

Major European automakers, including Volkswagen AG, as well as Asian manufacturers like Hyundai Motor Co., will likely be among the hardest hit.

Trump did not specify whether these measures would target specific countries or apply to all imported vehicles. It is also unclear whether cars produced under free trade agreements with Canada and Mexico would be exempt.

For Mexico and South Korea, where auto exports to the US make up 2.4% and 1.8% of GDP, respectively, Trump's new tariffs pose a serious economic challenge.

Impact on the Semiconductor Sector
In the semiconductor sector, Malaysia and Singapore are expected to be among the hardest-hit nations. Malaysia, the sixth-largest exporter of semiconductors, recorded $136 billion in semiconductor exports in 2024.

Representatives from Samsung Electronics Co. and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. declined to comment on the new tariffs.

Potential Retaliatory Measures
Recently, US trading partners have vowed to respond swiftly to Trump's tariffs, warning that they will target politically sensitive US-made goods.

A top European Union trade official is expected to travel to Washington this week for last-ditch talks aimed at avoiding the April tariffs. However, Trump has made it clear that no country will be able to negotiate its way out of the tariffs if he considers trade relations to be imbalanced.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook
Right now, EUR/USD buyers need to push the price above 1.0475. This will open the way for a test of 1.0510. Breaking above this level could lead to an advance toward 1.0554, though achieving this without support from major players will be challenging. The long-term target remains 1.0590.

If the pair declines, serious buying interest is expected around 1.0430. If buyers fail to emerge at that level, a drop to 1.0400 or even 1.0370 could be on the horizon.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook
For GBP/USD buyers, the key level to break is 1.2630. Successfully overcoming this resistance could lead to a test of 1.2665, though further gains beyond this point would be difficult. The final target stands at 1.2690.

If the pair falls, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.2590. A break below this range would seriously weaken bullish positions, pushing GBP/USD toward 1.2550, with a potential move down to 1.2515.

 

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues its strong upward momentum, reaching a new all-time high above $2,950. The surge is driven by concerns that U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs could lead to a global trade war, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the decline in U.S. Treasury yields is further supporting bullish sentiment in the gold market.

The FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its policy pause for an extended period. While this could deter traders from opening new positions, potentially limiting gold's gains, the overall fundamental backdrop remains bullish, suggesting that the path of least resistance for XAU/USD is still upward.

Technical Outlook for Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading above 70, indicating overbought conditions and calling for caution among bulls. This suggests that gold prices could consolidate within a weekly range before attempting another move higher.

The short-term trend remains bullish, and a sustained break above the $2,945–2,950 resistance zone could pave the way for further gains.

Key Support and Resistance Levels:

Immediate support is located at $2,930, followed by yesterday's low at $2,918 and the psychological level of $2,900.

A break below $2,900 could lead to deeper corrective declines towards $2,880, with further downward potential extending to the $2,860–2,855 region and the $2,834 support level.

If selling pressure intensifies, gold could drop toward $2,815, followed by $2,800 and the critical support zone at $2,785–2,784.

On the other hand, a clear breakout above $2,950 would confirm bullish momentum, potentially driving gold prices toward $3,000 and beyond in the coming sessions.