Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

US Market News Digest for March 11

US stock indices, including S&P 500 and Nasdaq, lose more than 5%
After a sharp sell-off on Wall Street that sent the Nasdaq 100 into its deepest plunge since 2022, markets are beginning to recover. Futures on the S&P 500 rose by 0.3% after an early 1% dip, and US Treasury yields started to climb. However, investors remain on edge as tariff wars, government spending cuts, and geopolitical tensions threaten US economic growth. European stock indices and the Nasdaq 100 also bounced back slightly, but nerves remain as many fear this is just a short-term breather.

Asian markets continued their decline, pushing Hong Kong and China stock indices to five-week lows. In China, however, investors are ramping up investments, with local players buying stocks in anticipation of government stimulus measures. Chinese AI startup DeepSeek sparked a rally in the tech sector, fueling risk appetite among local investors. Against this backdrop, Citigroup downgraded US equities to "neutral," while China was upgraded to "overweight." Meanwhile, in Europe, HSBC upgraded European stocks (excluding the UK).

Trump to meet with major company leaders to calm markets amid uncertainty over tariffs and economic outlook

As the US stock market reels from sell-offs and recession fears, Donald Trump is preparing for an emergency meeting with corporate executives. Amid trade wars, tariffs, and growing pessimism, the White House is doing its best to show that the economy is not collapsing but is merely undergoing a "minor correction," as Trump himself believes. The meeting is expected to demonstrate the administration's "rock-solid confidence" in stability and reassure investors that everything is under control (although whether this will work remains uncertain). However, despite upbeat statements, markets continue to tremble under the weight of uncertainty as the trade war with China threatens global economic growth.

The meeting with the Washington-based Business Roundtable will test the resilience of Trump's economic strategy. Attendees include Chuck Robbins (Cisco Systems), Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan Chase), Jane Fraser (Citigroup), and other Wall Street financial magnates. Until recently, Trump's victory inspired optimism among bankers, but now, with tariffs hitting businesses and the economy slowing, even the most loyal executives are beginning to feel nervous. The banking sector is in turbulent waters. Will business leaders be able to restore market stability, or will this meeting be another panicked attempt to prevent the market from spiraling further?

US stock market loses $4 trillion in capitalization despite data showing resilient economy and low unemployment

US stock indices went through their worst day in recent memory, losing $4 trillion in capitalization. The Nasdaq plummeted 4%, the S&P 500 dropped 2.7%, and the Dow Jones index fell 2.1%. Moreover, the S&P 500 broke below its 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2023. What caused the crash? Fears of a recession, slowing economic growth, and, of course, Donald Trump's comments suggesting that the United States is going through a "transitional period." In market terms, this means: get ready for even more chaos.

Large companies are not providing much relief either—Tesla (TSLA) lost 15% on weak sales in China and a lowered UBS price target of $225, while Nvidia (NVDA) dropped 5.1%, dragging down the entire tech sector. Microsoft (MSFT) lost 3.3%, and Apple (AAPL) fell 4.9%, confirming that investors are fleeing the mega-cap sector. Among the best performers were Redfin (RDFN), which soared 67.9% thanks to an acquisition by Rocket Companies (RKT), and Expand Energy (EXE), which gained 3.2% after being added to the S&P 500 index. US Treasury bonds became a safe-haven asset, with 10-year yields falling to 4.21% and 2-year yields sliding to 3.90%, marking the lowest since October.

Investors concerned about US administration's lack of clarity on potential recession

Donald Trump refused to rule out the possibility of a recession and advised against focusing on the stock market. Investors took this as a clear signal to flee, leading to the biggest sell-off in the NASDAQ 100 since 2022. The Magnificent Seven stocks plummeted by 20% from their December highs, and the VIX fear index soared above 30 for the first time since August. According to Nomura Securities, it is a bad sign if volatility continues to rise gradually rather than sharply—suggesting the market is bracing for a prolonged and painful downturn. Meanwhile, JP Morgan scrapped its S&P 500 forecast of 6,500, hinting that predicting anything is futile amid this uncertainty.

Against this backdrop, Citigroup and HSBC recommend reducing exposure to US equities and seeking opportunities abroad, where countries are focusing on fiscal stimulus rather than trade wars. China and Europe look much more attractive than the US, which still cannot decide whether it is facing a recession or a "transitional period." Meanwhile, recession forecasts in the US are soaring: Goldman Sachs raised the probability of an economic downturn to 20%, Yardeni Research to 35%, JP Morgan to 40%, and Morgan Stanley revised its GDP forecast to 1.5% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026. It seems that the "transitional period" is going to be prolonged, so, investors, bear this in mind.

Tech giants Nvidia and Tesla under pressure, their weak performance reflects current market conditions

Investors are holding their breath: if inflation exceeds expectations, the Fed will remain hawkish and stocks will stay under pressure. Meanwhile, the stock market is in panic mode, with the Nasdaq falling 4% and the S&P 500 down 2.7%. Tesla (-15.4%), Nvidia (-5.1%), and Apple (-4.9%) continue to lose ground, with analysts revising their forecasts. Particular attention is now on Nvidia, which became a symbol of the AI boom but has now dropped 20% since the start of the year. Analysts at Melius Research lowered Nvidia's target price to $170 from $195, citing falling demand for chips and potential regulatory risks. The company's stock has become more affordable. Its P/E ratio has dropped from 81 to 38, but the big question remains: is this the bottom, or is another round of declines ahead?

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 broke below the 5,700 support level, paving the way for another drop to the 5,500 area. The RSI and MACD indicators are signaling oversold conditions, but fundamental factors are still weighing on the market. The key question remains: how much of an impact will inflation have? The upcoming data releases will determine the next move. Investors are pondering whether now is the time to enter the market or wait for it to stabilize. If you are unsure of your strategy, use expert advice from professionals to not just weather the turbulence but to make the most of it.
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The main events by the morning: March 17

The European Union does not impose sanctions against Russian LNG, waiting for an agreement with the United States on the supply of American gas. This slows down further energy sanctions and plans to phase out Russian fuel. The EU also will not publish a roadmap for reducing dependence on Russian energy resources. If negotiations with the United States fail, it will complicate the situation for Brussels. The United States holds 46% of the LNG market in Europe, while Russia holds 16%.

Trump plans to hold talks with Putin on Tuesday, noting significant progress in the work carried out over the weekend to resolve the conflict in Ukraine. The US president believes that there is a «very good chance» to end the conflict.

The European Union has become the main obstacle to achieving peace in Ukraine. This was stated by the Permanent mission of Russia to the OSCE. The fact is that against the background of establishing contacts between the United States and Russia, EU countries, on the contrary, are looking for opportunities for militarization.

Russia and the United States are discussing access to the Black Sea in the context of resolving the conflict in Ukraine. This was stated by Trump's special representative Witkoff. In particular, we are talking about access to the ports of the Black Sea and ownership of the Zaporizhia NPP.

China will reconsider its ambitions in the Arctic, including plans to become a «great polar power» by 2030, due to possible cooperation between Russia and the United States. The concept of the «Polar Silk Road», presented in 2018, caused a negative reaction from the Arctic countries. As a result, China has focused on «scientific diplomacy» and lowered its previous ambitions. Negotiations are also underway between Russia and the United States on the joint development of natural resources in the region.
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EUR/USD Pauses as S&P 500 Forecasts Worsen – How to Find Balance?

The global market is currently struggling to find balance in key currency pairs and stock instruments. This is particularly challenging given the recent decline of the euro and the weakness of the dollar. Adding to the pressure are relatively pessimistic forecasts for major global indices.

On Tuesday, March 18, the EUR/USD pair traded with slight losses around 1.0915. The euro remains under pressure due to a new round of trade tensions stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump's latest tariffs on European goods. However, experts believe the dollar's weakening—driven by concerns over a slowdown in the U.S. economy and hopes for a fiscal deal in Germany—could limit the downside for EUR/USD.

Analysts suggest that further declines in EUR/USD may be prevented by actions taken by Germany's Green Party, which is currently working on a debt restructuring deal. Friedrich Merz, a candidate for German chancellor, recently approved the creation of a €500 billion infrastructure fund and agreed to significant changes in borrowing rules, particularly regarding the so-called "debt brake." These measures are expected to support the euro soon and help it withstand pressure from the dollar.

Adding fuel to the fire, weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales reports have heightened concerns about slowing consumer spending. This has put pressure on the dollar and supported EUR/USD. According to recent data, U.S. retail sales rose by 0.2% month-over-month in February, falling short of the expected 0.7% increase. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales grew by 3.1%, down from the previously reported 3.9% (revised from 4.2%).

The situation has become even more complicated due to widespread downgrades in forecasts for U.S. stocks. Currency strategists at RBC Capital Markets have joined other experts in lowering their outlook for the U.S. stock market in 2025, citing worsening economic prospects, a potential slowdown in economic growth, and increased uncertainty from trade wars.

Against this backdrop, RBC Capital Markets has revised its S&P 500 forecast for next year, now expecting the index to reach 6,200 points—a 4% reduction from the previous forecast of 6,600 points. Additionally, the firm has cut its earnings-per-share forecast by 2.5%, citing deteriorating economic conditions.

Last week, the S&P 500 fell 10% from its all-time high reached in February 2025, which experts believe signals the start of a market correction. RBC Capital Markets strategists have warned that slowing economic growth could pose a serious obstacle for the stock market. Consumer, small business, and corporate sentiment have turned increasingly negative, while support from President Donald Trump has diminished. Moreover, RBC strategists have lowered their year-end forecast for the S&P 500, expecting it to drop from 5,775 points to 5,550 points.

The performance of U.S. stocks contrasts with European markets, though negative trends are present there as well. The Euro Stoxx 50 index has risen by nearly 10%, driven by hopes for a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, lower interest rates, and signs that the European economy has reached its bottom.

Across the Atlantic, the situation remains uncertain. David Kostin, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and other analysts have lowered the annual earnings growth forecast from 11% to 9%. He now expects the S&P 500 to finish the year at 6,200 points, down from the previous forecast of 6,500 points.

Deutsche Bank AG shares a similar view. The bank's analysts predict further declines in the U.S. stock market as optimistic sentiment deteriorates due to trade policy uncertainty. However, Deutsche Bank has maintained its long-term forecast for the S&P 500 at 7,000 points by the end of 2025.

Other currency strategists are also concerned about growing uncertainty in global markets. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co. highlight potential risks associated with political developments. However, amid the wave of pessimistic forecasts, there is a glimmer of optimism. Michael Wilson from Morgan Stanley expects the S&P 500 to drop to 5,500 points only in the first half of 2025 before recovering. He believes this could lay the groundwork for a market rebound later in the year.
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US Market News Digest for March 20

S&P 500: uptrend or just corrective move?
Although the S&P 500 shows optimism, its growth since March 14 has been viewed as more of a correction. A move toward the target range of 5,881–5,910 becomes more likely if the price consolidates above 5,769. This could reinforce the short-term uptrend, attracting new buyers.

Traders should consider the current technical setup, evaluating support and resistance levels. Holding above key levels may serve as a buy signal, but high volatility requires caution when making decisions.

Fed's decision to hold interest rates supports the US stock market
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, providing a positive catalyst for the stock market. Major stock indices, including the S&P 500, closed higher after the central bank acknowledged economic uncertainty but saw no immediate need to change monetary policy.

The market interpreted this decision as a sign of stability, boosting demand for stocks. With no new monetary restrictions, investors may continue seeking opportunities in the stock market, particularly in technology and financial sectors.

Market optimism: more Fed's rate cuts lie ahead?

US stock indices, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, continue their rise, fueled by expectations of future Fed rate cuts. Fed officials' comments have reinforced positive sentiment, despite short-term turbulence in the Chinese market.

Investors may consider portfolio diversification, including assets sensitive to rate cuts. Market momentum will depend on further signals from the Fed and upcoming macroeconomic data.

Fed eases recession fears, but risks do not disappear

The FOMC meeting in March reassured investors, reducing fears of a potential recession. Despite a slight upward revision of inflation forecasts, the S&P 500 remains an attractive investment option. However, geopolitical risks could still trigger sell-offs.

For traders, flexibility is key—while the market shows resilience, short-term corrections remain possible. The best approach is to use volatility to identify entry points, factoring in fundamental data and market news.

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USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Today, following the release of data showing a February slowdown in the national Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Japanese yen continues to trade with a negative tone, creating uncertainty in the market.

The data shows that Japan's national CPI rose 3.7% year-over-year in February, down from 4% in the previous month. Although this slowdown was expected, it will likely influence Japan's economic policy. The nationwide core CPI, which excludes fresh food, rose 3.0% compared to a year earlier, slightly above the expected 2.9%, but still below the previous 3.2% reading.

Interestingly, preliminary results from the spring labor negotiations (Shunto) indicate that Japanese companies have largely agreed to substantial wage increases for a third consecutive year. This could boost consumer spending and maintain inflationary pressure, thereby providing room for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates further.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized that the Shunto results align with expectations, and that the central bank will continue its policy until it is clearly time to act. Achieving the 2% inflation target is important for the BoJ's long-term credibility, and the bank is prepared to adjust policy depending on economic and price conditions.

Investors are confident that strong wage growth in Japan could stimulate consumer spending and support inflation, giving the BoJ scope for rate hikes in 2025.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has announced plans to cut interest rates twice by 25 basis points each before the end of the year, due in part to a downward revision in growth forecasts amid ongoing trade policy uncertainty. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that tariffs could restrain economic growth, posing additional challenges for the U.S. economy.

Consequently, rising demand for the U.S. dollar, supported by the Fed's rate cut projections, is helping USD/JPY maintain intraday gains above the key 149.00 level.

However, the divergence between expected Fed easing and BoJ tightening creates a standoff in the pair, limiting the dollar's upside and providing support to the lower-yielding yen. This calls for caution when opening long positions on further USD/JPY growth.

Technical Outlook
A strong move above the 149.25–149.30 zone would allow USD/JPY to retest the psychological level of 150.00. A break above 150.15 could trigger a short-covering rally, pushing prices toward the interim level at 150.60, followed by 151.00, and ultimately the monthly high near 151.30.

On the other hand, the Asian session low near 148.60 now serves as immediate support. A drop below this level would accelerate the decline toward the weekly low of 148.20–148.15, reached on Thursday.

Further key support levels are located at 148.00 and 147.70—a break below these would open the way to 147.35 and 147.00, and eventually to the 146.55–146.50 area, which marks the lowest level since early October. This view is reinforced by oscillators on the daily chart, which remain in negative territory.
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US Market News Digest for March 25

S&P 500 surges to critical level of 5,769
Yesterday, the S&P 500 unexpectedly put on a show, jumping 1.76% to reach 5,769, a level last seen on January 13th. As if following a well-rehearsed script, the Marlin oscillator, like a disciplined performer, touched the boundary of bullish territory. This is top-tier synchronization: critical levels are being tested in unison, forming this very bifurcation point — where the price will either reverse course and plunge towards 5,516, or continue its bold ascent into the 5,881-5,910 range.

A close above 5,769 today would strengthen the case for further gains. However, if this session ends with a bearish black candlestick, bears are likely to start dragging the price lower, targeting the support level of 5,670. Meanwhile, the 4-hour chart shows that the Marlin oscillator remains in a downward channel, though still in positive territory, indicating a potential upside breakout. The Kruzenshtern line is also turning up, pointing to a possible short-term uptrend.

US stocks rally on hopes for softer tariff stance from Trump

Wall Street finally decided to reward investors, rallying strongly on a wave of optimism. What was the reason? The Trump administration seemed to have put on a mask of reason — hinting at a more cautious, measured approach to tariffs, potentially delaying or revising the planned April 2 hikes. As a result, the S&P 500 index jumped 1.8% to a two-week high and even surpassed its 200-day moving average at 5,752. The Dow Jones gained 1.4% and the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.3%. Tech stocks led the way, especially those that had taken a beating earlier in the year.

The stock market was also supported by strong economic data. The S&P Global US Services PMI spiked to 54.3 in March from 51.0 in February, more than offsetting a drop in the Manufacturing PMI, which fell to 49.8 from 52.7. Ten out of eleven S&P 500 sectors closed higher, with eight gaining more than 1.0%. Even the bond market joined the rally — the 10-year Treasury yield soared 8 basis points to 4.33%.

Trump's talk of sectoral tariff exemptions lifts US stock market despite lingering investor caution

US stock indices finally gave investors something to smile about. At the close of yesterday's session, the S&P 500 climbed 1.76%, while the Nasdaq 100 added a confident 2.27%. The optimism was driven by Donald Trump's comments. This time, he opted to loosen his grip a bit, announcing that not all tariffs set for April 2 would be applied across the board. In fact, some countries may be granted sectoral exemptions. The statement immediately stirred economic circles and, unsurprisingly, provided a solid boost to US equities. Still, analysts appear more focused on reading the tea leaves than offering clear direction.

Meanwhile, Chinese investors clearly do not share the US optimism. China's stock market continued its dizzying slide, as if to prove that gravity is no joke. The gauge of Chinese tech stocks in Hong Kong plummeted 3.8%, marking the steepest drop in three weeks. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. and Xiaomi Corp. led the losers' list: Xiaomi tumbled 6.6%, while Alibaba shed more than 3% after its chairman cautiously hinted at a possible bubble in data center construction.

Trump's auto and goods tariff exemptions calm markets, boost Magnificent Seven stocks

The financial storm may be abating. As the S&P 500 climbed to a three-week high on the back of Trump's softer tone on trade tariffs, banks and investment firms swiftly pivoted to the bullish camp. JP Morgan and Evercore insist that the worst sell-off of 2025 is behind us, while Bank of America says that capital flows are reversing course, with money coming back to the United States. Trump has rolled out a new tariff maneuver: a 25% tariff on anyone buying oil from Venezuela. It is clear that this measure could also be applied to Russia if it continues to stall on decisions regarding Ukraine.

Bank of America argues that capital flight to Europe was triggered by a 14% sell-off in the Magnificent Seven stocks. Tesla and other behemoths that had given up their gains suddenly looked attractive again. Their ratio to the broader market has fallen to its lowest level since late 2022. The White House has scrapped plans for new tariffs on imports of cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals starting April 2. Even if new tariffs do materialize, they will be selective. For now, the breeze of optimism is blowing back towards the United States.

 

US stock market: bad news fully priced in

The S&P 500 had its worst quarter in three years. Investors are shifting capital from North America to Europe. Once-booming US tech stocks have collapsed. Major banks and respected institutions are raising the odds of a recession for the American economy. That's a lot of bad news for a broad stock index, isn't it? However, buying the dip towards the lower boundary of the sideways range at 5,500–5,790 has borne fruit — just in time for America's "Liberation Day".

Performance of US stock indices

Donald Trump's policies have caused turmoil not only in financial markets but also among the general public. According to the latest Associated Press poll, nearly 60% of Americans disapprove of the president's protectionist stance, and 58% are dissatisfied with his overall handling of the US economy. The market sell-off reflects investor skepticism, but the Republican leader remains undeterred. He insists the country must endure short-term pain to reclaim a golden era for America.

That "Liberation Day" will come on April 2, when the White House is set to announce new tariffs. According to Wall Street Journal sources, the president is weighing two options: blanket 20% import tariffs or tailored, reciprocal tariffs. The former could send another shock through financial markets, while the latter might calm nerves.

Following JP Morgan and Moody's Analytics, Goldman Sachs has raised the probability of a US recession from 20% to 35%. Yet investors have found new reasons for optimism. After a massive sell-off in tech stocks, forward P/E ratios are now approaching historical averages. In other words, stocks are no longer overvalued, making them more attractive.

US tech sector P/E trends

The White House's new tariffs could also slow capital outflows from North America to Europe. A full-blown trade war would likely hit the EU harder due to its large trade surplus with the United States. Moreover, part of the capital shift was driven by a 4.6% gain in the euro against the dollar in the first quarter. As a result, European investors lost about 13% on US-listed assets.

According to Wells Fargo, the dollar's January-March slide was temporary. Looking ahead, tariffs and trade tensions could boost the greenback by 1.5% to 11%, with maximum gains expected if America's trade partners avoid a full-scale retaliatory response.

From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 has bounced off the lower boundary of the previously established 5,500-5,790 consolidation range. Long positions opened at the 5,500 level appear to be worth holding. A break above the resistance levels at 5,625 (pivot) and 5,670 (fair value) would allow for additional long positions.

 

$10 Billion: The Price of Mistakes? J&J Back in Legal Storm

Wall Street Reels, But S&P 500 and Nasdaq Survive
U.S. stocks ended Tuesday with gains in the key S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, despite palpable nervousness gripping investors ahead of Donald Trump's announcement of new trade tariffs.

Investors on edge: markets in turmoil
The financial markets have been experiencing high volatility in recent weeks. The reason is fears that the US President's large-scale tariff initiatives could slow down the country's economic growth and spur inflation. While waiting for specifics from the White House, investors are maneuvering between caution and hope.

Markets are waiting for signals from the Rose Garden
All eyes are on Trump's speech tomorrow, scheduled for 4:00 PM ET in the White House Rose Garden. He is expected to announce the details of his tariff policy, and this may clarify at least part of the situation shrouded in guesswork and rumors.

However, even if clarity appears in terms of measures, investors will still face general uncertainty - both regarding the consequences of these steps and the possible reaction of US partners in the trade arena. All this makes the direction of further market movement vague and difficult to predict.

Swings of the day: from minus to confident point
Amid this tense uncertainty, all three major US indexes showed fluctuations throughout the trading session, jumping between growth and decline. Only in the second half of the day did positive dynamics prevail.

The bottom line for the day is as follows: the broad market S&P 500 index added 21.22 points, or 0.38%, to close at 5,633.07. The high-tech Nasdaq Composite strengthened by 150.60 points, which is an increase of 0.87%, ending the day at 17,449.89. But the Dow Jones industrial average slightly fell - by 11.80 points, or 0.03%, to 41,989.96.

Technology Takes Revenge: Nasdaq Back on Top
On Tuesday, it was the technology sector that became the engine of growth on Wall Street. After a difficult start to the year, the previously damaged IT giants began to confidently regain their positions, pulling the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices up with them.

Tesla Accelerates Ahead of the Report
Tesla stood out, its shares jumped by 3.6% amid expectations of fresh statistics on car deliveries for the first quarter, which will be released on Wednesday. Investors are betting on positive figures and waiting for a signal of demand recovery.

Other representatives of the so-called "magnificent seven" - Amazon, Microsoft and Meta Platforms (banned in Russia) - also showed confident growth, adding from 1% to 1.8%. This strengthened the position of Nasdaq and breathed technological optimism into the market.

Doctors and airlines drag the market down
But not everything was so rosy on the markets. The S&P 500 was under pressure from the healthcare and transportation sectors, which ended up in the red amid corporate and legal setbacks.

Johnson & Johnson was the real outsider of the day. The pharmaceutical giant's shares fell by 7.6%, showing the worst result among all the companies in the index. The reason was a blow in court: an American bankruptcy judge rejected J&J's offer to settle claims for $10 billion. We are talking about a long-standing dispute over talc-based products, which tens of thousands of plaintiffs associate with cancer.

The airline market is on the decline: anxiety over demand
Airlines also showed weakness. Shares of Delta, American Airlines and Southwest fell in the range of 2.4% to 5.9%. This was the result of analysts at Jefferies revising investment ratings downwards. Financial experts have expressed concern that macroeconomic uncertainty and fluctuations in consumer sentiment could negatively impact demand for both business and leisure travel.

IPO Newbies Are Rocking the Market: Newsmax and CoreWeave Are Riding High
Amid the general market turbulence, some newcomers to the exchange have become the real stars of the trading session. Among them is media player Newsmax, whose shares have demonstrated a dizzying rise for the second day in a row.

After a stunning start on the New York Stock Exchange on Monday, when the company's shares rose by more than 700%, they jumped another 208% on Tuesday. Given Newsmax's politically charged and Trump-friendly image, investor interest was literally explosive.

CoreWeave Startup Rising After a Shaky Debut
Another participant in the recent IPO, AI company CoreWeave, has also pleased investors. Despite an uncertain first step after going public on Friday, its shares added an impressive 41.8% on Tuesday, exceeding the announced offering price. This signals strong demand for AI stocks despite market risks.

Gold finds support, Asia wavers
While some investors are chasing the hype of new releases, others are turning their attention to more conservative assets. Gold prices have begun to show signs of recovery — the metal is traditionally seen as a "safe haven" amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

Asian markets, meanwhile, remained in a range of moderate volatility. Despite a shaky start, they managed to avoid sharp declines, following a more confident finish to trading on Wall Street. European futures are so far signaling a calm but cautious start.

Tariff time bomb
Investors are still keeping in mind the "hour X" — Donald Trump's planned statement on Wednesday, which he has dubbed "Liberation Day." In essence, we are talking about a large-scale initiative to introduce new import duties - both against strategic opponents and traditional US allies.

The announcement ceremony is scheduled for 20:00 GMT and will take place in a landmark location - the Rose Garden near the White House. And although market participants are waiting for specifics, no real relief from uncertainty is expected yet.

Quick measures, tough responses
Perhaps the most alarming detail is the lack of a negotiating phase. According to available data, tariff measures will be introduced immediately, which sharply reduces the room for diplomatic maneuvers and, on the contrary, increases the likelihood of a quick response from the affected countries.

This creates the basis for increased volatility in the markets in the coming days - from exchange rates to stock indices. Analysts do not rule out sharp jumps and new nervous sell-offs.

Tariff barrage: metal, cars and China under attack
The White House has already taken the first steps in implementing a tough trade strategy. Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on key import categories, from aluminum and steel to automobiles. He has also significantly increased tariffs on a whole range of Chinese products. These actions have resonated in global markets, increasing fears of a trade confrontation that could paralyze global economic growth.

Economists are sounding the alarm: the threat of a full-scale trade war is becoming increasingly real. Tensions between Washington and its main trading partners, including Beijing, threaten to go beyond diplomacy and enter the phase of a systemic conflict that could hit global supply chains and slow down the recovery of the world economy.

Gold shines amid anxiety
Amid growing risks, investors have flocked to safe haven assets, and, above all, to gold. The "yellow metal" is confidently storming new historical heights, having exceeded the psychological mark of $3,000 per ounce.

Gold has already gained 19% since the start of the year, continuing a strong upward trend after a remarkable 27% gain in 2024, the best year for the precious metal in a decade. The rise in prices reflects not only fears of geopolitical and economic shocks, but also growing demand from central banks and large institutional players seeking to preserve capital in an unstable environment.

Not gold, but a barometer of fear
With markets reeling from conflicting signals – from tariff threats to volatile inflation and unclear interest rate prospects – gold is once again becoming a universal indicator of anxiety. Its rise speaks not only of the demand for stability, but also of how deeply rooted the fears among investors are.

 

Market gives away its secret

The world is a stage, and people are its actors. Tragicomedies happen every day in financial markets, but what happened at the start of the second week of April is mesmerizing. In just a few minutes, the capitalization of the US stock market surged by $2.4 trillion thanks to a false message on social media. Its denial by the White House caused the S&P 500 to plummet. What's the message? What did the rollercoaster ride on Wall Street reveal? The nerves of investors, stretched like strings? Or was it the time to buy American stocks?

If you want to make money, use your imagination. If you're thinking about how to make big money, come up with something that will make your hair stand on end.

Someone created a fake Bloomberg account on social media, posted news from the popular media agency for a long time, and gained millions of followers with one goal. On one spring day, they posted information that Hassett was considering a 90-day pause in tariffs against all countries except China. The news was so hot that it was immediately picked up by CNBC and Reuters. The S&P 500 surged, only to fall again.

The S&P 500's reaction to the White House's tariff pause news

No doubt, investors are unnerved. They are worried about what the White House's protectionist policies might do to the US economy. Tariffs on imports and trade wars threaten a global recession. When fear rules market sentiment, no one wants to buy stocks.

On the other hand, the S&P 500 fell by 20% from its February peak, entering the bear market. This was the second-fastest slump since 1945. The first occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, forcing the Federal Reserve to throw a lifeline to the US economy with mind-boggling monetary stimuli.

The dynamics of the S&P 500's transitions into a bear market

In such conditions, investors are trying to puzzle out whether the worst has already happened and it is now time for negotiations and tariff rollbacks. Following this logic, is it the right time to buy stocks? If fear shifts to greed, the S&P 500 rally could be so fast that it will take your breath away. The fake news on social media is proof of that. What is needed is one good piece of news to enable the broad stock index to rise from the ashes.

I don't think the tough times are behind us. At least one trade war, between the US and China, has already started. According to UBS, a recession in the US economy could result in zero corporate profit growth, as every 1 percentage point drop in GDP subtracts 6.9 percentage points from this indicator.

Technically, on the Daily Chart of the S&P 500, a bounce from the support level at 4,905 suggests that the broad stock index may have found a bottom.

There is a high probability of consolidation in the range of 4,900 to 5,200 or 4,900-5,330. It makes sense to sell during a rise to its upper border and buy during a drop to the lower border. In the latter case, you need to think three times, as catching falling knives is extremely dangerous.
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"Golden" Forecasts: Gold at $3,500, $3,700 – Higher and Higher?

Gold forecasts are becoming increasingly dazzling in every sense, as analysts appear to be competing with one another over how high the precious metal could go. Rising geopolitical instability and President Donald Trump's current tariff policy fuel this. The yellow metal becomes a last reliable refuge for many investors in such an environment.

According to James Steel, currency strategist at HSBC, Washington's introduction of new tariffs against its trading partners triggered the sharp rise in the price of gold above $3,000 per ounce. "This is the first time in recent years when geopolitics and economic uncertainty have become the primary drivers of the gold market," the expert emphasizes.

Last week, spot gold prices hit a record high of $3,167.57 per troy ounce. As a result, the yellow metal is up 16% since the beginning of 2025. For reference, gold gained 27% in 2024. Monetary policy easing and concerns over fiscal deficits also contributed to increased investment in gold last year.

The current situation continues to favor gold. Against this backdrop, experts are forecasting unprecedented growth. Given that the precious metal has an inverse correlation with trade flows, gold stands to benefit either way. Trump's tariff stance — including the highest trade barriers enacted by Washington in a century — has also sent new investors rushing into gold, driven by fears of a full-blown trade war.

Gold has now surpassed the U.S. dollar in popularity among safe-haven assets, partly due to the prolonged weakening of the greenback. Additionally, many analysts have noted signs that the USD's status as the world's reserve currency is eroded by ongoing tariff uncertainty. In this environment, gold is outpacing the U.S. dollar. June gold futures on the Comex exchange rose 1.6% to $3,022 per ounce. On Wednesday, April 9, gold traded at $3,045 per troy ounce.

Global Uncertainty and Market Volatility Are Fertile Ground for Gold

Trump has significantly contributed to this environment by upending the global order just 2.5 months into his presidency, signaling that the U.S. will no longer guarantee European security, as it had since World War II. Moreover, the White House has radically shifted the U.S. stance on the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The eccentric billionaire has even seriously discussed the possibility of annexing Greenland.

Given the circumstances, currency strategists at Deutsche Bank have revised their gold price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 upward, citing geopolitical and trade uncertainty as strong catalysts for demand for safe-haven assets. According to preliminary estimates, the average price of gold will be $3,140 per ounce in 2025 and $3,700 in 2026. The previous forecast was $2,725 and $2,900, respectively. By the end of 2025, Deutsche Bank analysts project that gold will be worth $3,350 per ounce. The bank's 2026 forecast is the most optimistic among major global financial institutions.

Another factor supporting gold is strong central bank demand. According to Deutsche Bank, central banks now account for around 24% of global gold demand — up from less than 10% in 2022.

Many analysts remain optimistic about the near-term prospects for gold. Last week, HSBC raised its 2025 gold price forecast to $3,015 per ounce. However, the bank is less bullish on 2026, expecting a decline to $2,915 per ounce.

Currency strategists at Bank of America (BofA) also aren't forecasting a meteoric rise. According to BofA analyst Michael Widmer, gold will average $3,063 per ounce in 2025 and $3,350 in 2026. However, he believes spot prices could reach $3,500 per ounce over the next two years.

"Purchasing gold at $3,000 an ounce is more appealing than buying it at $3,500. However, what is the risk involved? It's the possibility of returning to the conditions we faced two years ago—a more favorable global environment with no threat of trade wars and a Federal Reserve open to increasing interest rates. In that case, the economy stabilizes, financial market sentiment improves, and gold trading effectively dries up. But that's a fantasy scenario," Widmer concludes.