Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by Andrea ForexMart, Aug 23, 2017.

  1. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    GBP/USD. November 12, 2019 – Pound moderately grows despite weak macroeconomic data

    The British sterling today shows growth to the level of 1,2800, despite weaker than expected data on GDP, trade and industrial production in the UK. British GDP grew by only 0.3% in the III quarter (the forecast – growth by 0.4%), the trade balance was at -12.541 billion pounds, and industrial production – -0.3% (the forecast of -0 , 2%).

    The British currency was supported by Nigel Farage's comments, that his Brexit party would not oppose the Conservative candidates. This is great news for Boris Johnson, whose chances of winning the December elections have grown significantly after this statement.

    However, this positive can be offset by weak macroeconomic data. Today's report on the labor market reflected an increase in the number of applications for unemployment benefits to 33 thousand. The previous indicator was fixed at around 13.5 thousand.

    Thus, today under the influence of multidirectional factors, the sterling will continue to grow moderately to the level of 1.28. However, fixing below this mark is unlikely.
     
  2. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. November 13, 2019 – Euro plummeted to 1.10

    The euro continues to decline to the mark of 1.1000 against the backdrop of a deterioration in appetite for risky assets. Pressure on risk was exerted by yesterday's speech of US President D. Trump at the Economic Club of New York. The US leader gave a very contradictory evaluation of the current state of trade negotiations. Trump noted that USA and China nowadays are close to concluding an intermediate phase of a trade deal, however, at the same time, the US intend to further increase import duties from China.

    An additional reason for the European currency weakness became the information on possible tariffs by the United States for automotive products in the EU.

    Today, attention should be paid to the speech of Fed Chairman J. Powell in Congress. It is expected that his rhetoric will remain as optimistic as it have been after the October meeting of the regulator, which will allow the dollar to maintain a strong position. During the day the pair EUR/USD will fluctuate near the mark of 1.10.
     
  3. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    GBP/USD. November 19, 2019 – Pound is likely to weaken

    At the beginning of the week, the British sterling showed growth to the level of 1.3000, but the bulls failed to overcome it. Today, the GBP/USD pair has fallen to around 1.2925.

    This week is not rich in the publication of macroeconomic data, so the major impact on the dynamics of the British currency will have the first head-to-head debates between Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn on ITV. It’s known, that Johnson’s party is far ahead of the Labor Party. The market also likes his words about tax breaks and increased spending, that supports the pound.

    However, experts believe that the positive effect of the last deferral of Brexit is almost completely taken into account in quotations. Therefore, with the arrival of new weak macroeconomic data on the British economy, the pound may cease to recover.
     
  4. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. November 20, 2019 – Euro weakly declining amid pessimism over trade negotiations

    The euro continues to decline moderately after a steady rise the days before. The current quotation of the pair EUR/USD is 1.1053. The euro is under the influence of conflicting news coming from the front of trade negotiations between the United States and China. On the one hand, the US authorities extended the license for the Chinese company Huawei for another 90 days. On the other hand, the Chinese side still doubts the possibility of concluding a final agreement. This information made many traders go into defensive assets.

    Moreover, China has protested against the United States approval of the Hong Kong Bill («On the Protection of Human Rights and Democracy in Hong Kong»), considering it to be interference in China and a violation of international laws. Such actions could again cool the relations between the two countries, which, for its part, negatively affect further trade talks and put strong pressure on risky assets. As a result, the euro may resume decline to the area of 1.1030.
     
  5. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    USD/CAD. November 21, 2019 – Canadian dollar weakened to 5-week lows

    The Canadian dollar fell to a 5-week low at mark 1.3330, despite rising inflationary pressure in Canada and the strengthening of Brent position in the oil market to $62.70 per barrel. The current quotation of the USD/CAD pair is 1.3300. Pessimism over US-China trade relations is forcing investors to give up risky assets and raises demand for safe assets and the dollar. Moreover it is putting pressure on commodity goods prices and commodity currencies, such as CAD.

    According to current data, consumer prices in October rose 0.3% after falling 0.4% in September. Inflation remained at 1.9% year on year. Today, attention should be paid to the speech by the Governor of the Bank of Canada Stephen Poloz, who may touch on the theme of deterioration of the global economy, which increases the risks of lower interest rates in Canada.

    The decision on monetary policy will be made by the Bank of Canada at the next meeting of the regulator, scheduled for December 4. Up to this point, the Canadian dollar may be under pressure in the area of 1.3300. Tomorrow you should pay attention to the release of data on retail sales.
     
  6. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    22.11. European markets lost growth after weak PMI

    On Friday, European stock markets slowed earlier growth. It was caused by the publication of the weak preliminary business activity index (PMI) in the Eurozone, which didn’t show the visible improvement in the economy of the region, still weighed down by the trade conflict between the US and China.

    According to IHS Markit, in October, the composite business activity index in the European Union fell from 50.6 to 50.3, fell short of the expectations for an improvement to 50.9. Data from France and Germany showed that manufacturing PMIs were stronger than expected, but service sector activity slowed sharply.

    Christina Lagarde, the new president of the European Central Bank noted, that she was not intended to sharply change the monetary policies of her predecessor, Mario Draghi. And judging by the shares, banks are confident that in the near future easing of monetary policy will not happen.
     
  7. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. November 25, 2019 – The euro has weakened to the level of 1.10

    Last Friday the US dollar got strong support amid published macroeconomic data. This allowed the quotes of the EUR/USD pair to reach closely to the level of 1.1000. According to the data, the index of business activity in industry and in the service sector grew from 51.3 and 50.6 points to 52.2 and 51.6 points, respectively. At the same time, statistics from the EU put pressure on the euro: the PMI composite business activity index in the region fell moderately and remained close to 50.

    Additional pressure on the euro was provided by gold sales amid growing interest in risky assets. The reason for improving risk appetite was the information that China plans to increase fines for violations of intellectual property rights, trying to eliminate one of the key topics of the trade conflict between the United States and China. Moreover, the bill in support of protesters in Hong Kong was never signed by US President D. Trump, which significantly reduced the degree of tension between the countries.

    So, in the prevailing conditions, the pair will move in a narrow range near the level of 1.10.
     
  8. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. November 26, 2019 – Euro in a narrow range just above 1.10

    Sentiment on global markets remains positive amid further optimistic statements on trade negotiations. It became known that the United States and China continue to take active measures to sign the first part of the deal as soon as possible. In particular, the parties held telephone talks: Deputy Prime Minister He, the US Minister of Finance S. Mnuchin and the sales representative R. Lighthizer reached an agreement on many issues, including the cancellation of part of the tariffs.

    Moreover, D. Trump did not sign the bill on the situation in Hong Kong, earlier being approved by both houses of Congress, that confirms the US’s reluctance to escalate the conflict with China.

    As a result, the EUR/USD pair strengthened slightly to 1.1015 mark. Nevertheless, the euro is still under pressure – the Ifo data on the business climate in Germany released yesterday confirmed that a quick recovery in the German economy is currently unlikely. During the day, the pair will fluctuate slightly above 1.10.
     
  9. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. November 27, 2019 – Euro continues to weaken

    In the absence of significant macroeconomic data, the EUR/USD pair continues to decline slightly to the level of 1.10. The focus of the markets is still the news on the course of trade talks between the US and China. The day before, US President D. Trump reiterated that the sides are very close to signing the first phase of a comprehensive agreement, which had supported the full range of risky assets.

    Today, you should pay attention to the release of data on the US economy: the Index of manufacturing activity from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, statistics on orders for durable goods, as well as an updated estimate of GDP for the III quarter.

    Recall that Thanksgiving day is celebrated in the USA tomorrow, in connection with which the American sites will be closed, and trading activity at the end of the week may significantly decrease. Today, the EUR/USD pair will be trading nearby the level of 1.10.
     
  10. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    GBP/USD. November 28, 2019 – Pound rises on Brexit positive news

    Yesterday, the pound got support and managed to rise to the level of 1.2950. The growth driver was the result of a public opinion poll according to which the Conservative Party, which includes the current British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, can count for a majority of votes in parliament on December elections. As a result, this may increase the likelihood of «soft» Brexit (with a deal) before the deadline set for January 31.

    On the other hand, in the debt market we see a decrease in the yield spread of 10-year UK/US government bonds, which signals a possible fall of the British currency.

    Today the United States celebrate Thanksgiving day, so the market activity will not be high. During the day, the pair will fluctuate in the range of 1.2900-12950.
     

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