Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by Andrea ForexMart, Aug 23, 2017.

  1. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. November 29, 2019 – The pair stabilized at 1.10

    The appetite for risky assets remains moderate amid another complication in relations between the US and China. On the eve it became known that D. Trump nethertheless signed a bill supporting protesters in Hong Kong.

    Important macroeconomic news is not expected today, so the pair EUR/USD will continue to fluctuate in the area of 1.1000. Yesterday's inflation data in Germany did not have a visible impact on the euro, despite the fact that the consumer price index was slightly better than expected (1.2% y/y against the expected 1.1% y/y). In the daytime you should pay attention to the release of data on inflation in the European Union.

    Yesterday American exchanges were closed due to Thanksgiving celebration, and today the US sites will close earlier than usual, so trading activity in the evening hours is likely to remain low.
     
  2. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. December 02, 2019 – Euro continues to drift in the area of lows

    At the end of last week the euro soared to 1.1025 after Friday falling to 1.0975. The growth was contributed by data on manufacturing activity in China, which turned out to be better than the expectations of market participants. In particular, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in China's manufacturing sector rose from 51.7 in October to 51.8 in November. Analysts had expected a decline to 51.4 points.

    At the same time, the growth of risk appetite is limited by reports that China imposed a number of sanctions against some US non-governmental organizations in response to the adoption of a law supporting protesters in Hong Kong. These measures suggest that the controversy between the US and China are not limited only to trade, and it will not be easy to reach a final agreement.

    Today you should pay attention to the release of data on the Index of business activity in the States from ISM (18:00 Moscow time). Actual statistics may support the dollar. In anticipation of the data, the EUR/USD pair will continue to fluctuate slightly above the level of 1.10.
     
  3. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. December 03, 2019 – Euro approached 1.11

    Yesterday the EUR/USD pair unexpectedly increased in price, almost touched the level of 1.1100. Such alignment of forces in the pair was facilitated by the US President’s tweet, in which he charged Brazil and Argentina with weakness of their currencies, and introduced tariffs against export from these two countries. In addition, Trump demanded that the Fed must lower the interest rate at the next meeting.

    Additional pressure on the dollar was provided by weak macroeconomic data from the United States: the ISM index of economic conditions in the manufacturing sector in November amounted to 48.1%, while analysts had forecast a figure of 49.2%. In addition, construction costs unexpectedly fell by 0.8%, although analysts had expected an increase of 0.4%.

    As a result, the US dollar collapsed across the full spectrum of the Forex market, even in relation to risky assets. The additional negative was caused by the US and Chinese altercations around the human rights situation in Hong Kong.

    However, it should be noted, that macroeconomic data from Germany and the eurozone gave support to the euro. Indices of business activity in industry in November showed growth: in Germany - from 43.8 to 44.1 points, in the eurozone - from 46.6 to 46.9 points. Thus, the euro feels quite confident in the current conditions. During the day the pair will continue to attempt to reach the level of 1.11.
     
  4. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    GBP/USD. December 04, 2019 – British pound updated 7-month high

    The British sterling is currently the strongest currency on the market. Paired with the US dollar, the pound managed to rise to the area of 1.3060 (which became a 7-month high), although a week ago, it was trading near the area of 1.28. The current quotation of the pair GBP/USD is 1.3045.

    The currency is getting support provided by several factors. The first is optimism around Brexit. On December 12 in the UK there will be held early parliamentary elections, which will most likely be won by the ruling party led by Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Johnson promises to withdraw Britain from the European Union by January 31, 2020, and the market believes him.

    Secondly, the general weakness of the US dollar on world markets allowed the pound to strengthen in the GBP/USD pair and update the high of early May.

    Under current conditions, British sterling will feel confident and further, until December 12th.
     
  5. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Brent. December 05, 2019 – Oil rose to $63.50 per barrel

    Oil prices began to rise after yesterday's industry report from the US Department of Energy. The Department reported a drawdown on crude oil inventories in the United States last week for nearly 5 million barrels per week, which is the most dramatic reduction in oil reserves in the past 12 weeks. As a result, Brent rose in price to $63.50 per barrel.

    Today starts a two-day meeting of the OPEC+ monitoring committee in Vienna. Analysts expect participating countries to extend the current deal until June 2020 and not to change the parameters of this deal. It also supports oil prices.

    Also today attention should be paid to Saudi Arabia, where Saudi Aramco, the country's national oil company, will announce its IPO offering price. It is noted that the demand for stocks is increased, which means that the company can place actions on the upper price limit.
     
  6. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. December 06, 2019 – The dollar grows amid strong labor market data

    Today the euro began to decline, failing to gain a foothold above the level of 1.11. The currency was pressured by weak data from the eurozone: retail sales in the region in November turned out to be worse than expected – annual indicator grew by only 1.4% against the forecast of 2.7%. German manufacturing orders fell 5.5%, while industrial production decreased 1.7%. Analysts expected a 0.1% increase. As a result, the pair fell to around 1.1065.

    The news context on trade talks remains mixed. On the one hand, the United States notes the success of the ongoing negotiations, and on the other, the markets again received information about the disagreements of the sides regarding China's purchase of agricultural products from the United States.

    Today's US labor market data supported the dollar: the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector of the country grew by 266 thousand, while analysts predicted an increase only of 180 thousand. As a result, the EUR/USD pair will continue to decline throughout the day.
     
  7. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. December 10, 2019 – Euro started to grow after the release of data from ZEW

    The euro continues to strengthen to the area of 1,11, while market participants are waiting for significant events of this week, concentrated in its second half (Fed and ECB meetings, parliamentary elections in the UK).

    News from the front of trade negotiations has recently remained positive. Market players expect that amid the upcoming US elections, Donald Trump is unlikely eager to escalate the trade war and disappoint market participants. Therefore, new import duties on Chinese goods most likely will not be introduced on December 15.

    Today, you should pay attention to the publication of the index of economic expectations from ZEW in Germany. Fresh statistics provided visible support to the European currency, since the indicator value has peaked since February 2018. The index of expectations of investors and analysts regarding the German economy in December jumped to 10.7 points from minus 2.1 points in November. Thus, during the day the pair will continue to grow to the area of 1.11.
     
  8. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. December 11, 2019 – Dollar rises in anticipation of Fed meeting

    The euro failed to overcome the 1.1100 level and rolled back to 1.1075. Yesterday, the currency was strongly supported by data on economic expectations from ZEW in Germany. The index of expectations of investors and analysts regarding the German economy in December unexpectedly rose to 10.7 points from -2.1 points in November. The indicator value updated the maximum of February 2018. Experts predicted the growth rate to only 0.3 points.

    Today the focus of attention of the market will tend to the meeting of the US Federal Reserve and a press conference by D. Powell. Experts expect the US regulator to leave the key rate unchanged, as well as determine the future course of monetary policy. This can provide strong support for the dollar in the evening. As a result, the pair will continue to decline throughout the day.
     
  9. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    GBP/USD. December 12, 2019 – Sterling may rise following the parliamentary elections

    Today all market participants are focused on the long-awaited elections to the British Parliament. Voting results are expected not only in the UK, but around the world, as everyone wants to finally find out how the Brexit story ends. Sociological polls have shown that most likely the Tories will win, led by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

    If the expectations come true, and the Conservatives get the majority of votes, Johnson will be able to complete the British exit from the EU until January 31, 2020. The first results of the vote will be released tonight, and they will be crucial for the further dynamics of the pound.

    Today, the British sterling remains at high levels just below 1.3200. In general, since the British decided to withdraw from the European Union, the currency has come a long way: after the Brexit vote the pound collapsed to 1.1450 from the level of 1.5. If the Conservative Party win, the sterling will continue to rise to an area above 1.32.
     

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