Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by Andrea ForexMart, Aug 23, 2017.

  1. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. April 06, 2020 – The euro began to strengthen from the level of 1.0770

    The euro suspended its decline at 1.0770 and rebounded to 1.08. Today the news background for the pair is quite calm, only data on the volume of industrial orders in Germany for February and the Sentix investor confidence index for April in the eurozone will be of interest. The first indicator decreased by 1.4% m/m against the previous growth of 4.8% m/m. Regarding the second indicator: analysts expect it to fall to -30.5 points from the previous value of -17.1.

    At the end of last week, the United States provided data on unemployment in March: the indicator rose to 4.4% from 3.5% earlier, although it was predicted to rise only to 3.8%. The number of jobs outside the agricultural sector decreased by 701 thousand against the expectation of a decrease of 100 thousand. These data put pressure on the dollar, stopping its strengthening.

    Today, the EUR/USD pair will not show strong price fluctuations: it is expected to move within the range of 1.0750-1.0850.
     
  2. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Fundamental Brent analysis for April 7, 2020

    Brent quotes continue to grow, despite the uncertainty about the upcoming OPEC+ video conference. The current Brent quote is $ 33.75 per barrel.

    Prices continue to stay above $30 per barrel, receiving support from reports that Russia is ready to discuss a serious reduction in oil production. However, many countries, including Saudi Arabia, cannot come to any formal agreement on quotas and terms, so the situation around the deal remains uncertain.

    It is worth noting that the United States and Canada will not take part in the OPEC+ virtual meeting on April 9, which put some pressure on the market.
     
  3. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. April 08, 2020 – Euro consolidated at 1.09

    The euro has stabilized in the range of 1.0830-1.0900. Market participants remain neutral in the absence of important macroeconomic publications. Today, one should pay attention only to the publication of the minutes of the previous meeting of the US Federal Reserve System, according to which it will be possible to understand whether all members of the monetary committee agree to sharp cuts in the Fed rate.

    Also, this publication will allow to get acquainted with the Fed estimates regarding the extent of the recession in the US economy.

    Yesterday, a videoconference of finance ministers of the eurozone member countries took place, which culminated in the failure of the participants to agree on cooperative measures to overcome the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
     
  4. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Fundamental Brent analysis for April 9, 2020

    Today may be crucial for the global oil market. In the evening, the OPEC online-meeting starts, at which the ministers of the participating countries will discuss the adoption of coordinated measures to neutralize excess supply and maintain prices for «black gold».

    In anticipation of this important event, Brent quotes are showing growth to the level of $34 per barrel. The new deal could include the United States, Mexico, Norway, Canada and other countries with a total production of 70 million barrels per day. Russia noted that it was ready to reduce production by 1.6 million barrels per day, if the United States also joined the leading countries of the deal (Russia and Saudi Arabia).

    However, the States are not confident in their participation in either today's videoconference or a future deal, noting that oil production in the country is already declining for natural reasons. Thus, America’s position may again hinder the conclusion of a global deal.

    Today, pressure on Brent may have yesterday's report from the US Department of Energy on US crude oil inventories. The data reflected an unexpected increase in stocks of 15 million barrels per week, while analysts predicted growth of 9 million.
     
  5. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    USD/CAD. April 10, 2020 – Canadian dollar is stable despite weak statistics

    The USD/CAD pair continues to decline slightly, almost close to 1.3900. The Canadian currency is showing a strengthening, even despite the decline in oil quotes from the level of $35.40 to the area of $31.70 per barrel. Moreover, weak data on the labor market in Canada also did not have the proper negative impact on the «loonie».

    According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics Canada, the number of jobs in March fell by 1.011 million, which significantly exceeded the previous record monthly drop of 125 thousand jobs in 2009. Unemployment in the country rose to 7.8% compared to 5.6% in previous months.

    Business activity data also showed a significant decline. The Ivey Business Index fell from 54.1 in February to 26.0 in March.

    Experts predict that in April the situation will only worsen, so the further strengthening of the Canadian dollar is in question. Today during the day the pair USD/CAD will consolidate near the level of 1.39.
     
  6. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Brent. April 13, 2020 – Oil declines despite new OPEC deal

    At the beginning of the week, oil shows a decline to the area of $31 per barrel. This weekend, OPEC, Russia, the United States and other oil-producing countries nevertheless came to an agreement on the main conditions of the new deal and agreed to reduce production by 9.7 million barrels per day during May-June. Such volumes account for about 10% of global supplies.

    Experts note that this decline in oil production has become the largest in history. Previously, the pact participants intended to reduce production by 10 million barrels per day, but Mexico refused to reduce its share by 400 thousand. The United States agreed to take on part of the Mexican share, thereby reducing it to 100 thousand barrels.

    Despite the success of the negotiations, traders are in no hurry to open «long» positions. The problem is that the actual reduction is still not enough to eliminate the imbalance in the oil market (in the amount of 20-25 million barrels). Moreover, the new deal will end in June, so the issue of additional reduction will again become relevant in the second half of the year.
     
  7. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Fundamental Review for April 14: China, Risk Assets, USA

    Investor sentiment on global markets remains moderately optimistic after the release of statistics on China's trade. According to the PRC General Directorate of Customs, exports in March fell by 6.6% YoY after falling by 17% in February. Imports were down 0.9% after falling 4%.

    Such dynamics indicate that business activity in the country began to recover after quarantine, which supported the appetite for risky assets in global financial markets. Additional support to risk is provided by a visible slowdown in the spread of coronavirus in the world. According to official sources, only 70 thousand new cases of the disease were detected yesterday.

    However, investor sentiment may already worsen after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conference, at which representatives of the organization will present a revised forecast for the dynamics of the global economy in 2020. New data is not expected to please markets.

    As for the United States, the banking reporting season is starting today: Wells Fargo and JP Morgan are expected to publish financial results. The US stock market may be under visible pressure if financial indicators do not meet the expectations of analysts.
     
  8. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Brent. April 15, 2020 – Oil resumed to decline

    Today, Brent quotes continue to decline after yesterday's fall. The current quote of the asset is $28.35 per barrel. As expected, the new OPEC+ agreement to reduce oil production did not bring positive results, because it was adopted too late. Moreover, market participants believe that a reduction of 9.7 million barrels per day will not be enough to stabilize supply and demand in the oil market.

    Also yesterday it became known that the Texas oil regulator discussed the possibility of a coordinated limitation of oil production in the state, but it was not possible to reach a consensus. The US Department of Energy noted that production in the country will decline naturally in the face of low commodity prices.

    An additional source of negativity for Brent was a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which reflected a 13 million barrels increase in crude stocks in the country. If today's statistics from the Ministry of Energy confirm an increase, Brent quotes will continue to decline to an area below $28.
     
  9. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. April 16, 2020 – Euro is declining, the dollar is gaining strength across the entire spectrum of the market

    On Thursday, the euro continues to decline amid a general strengthening of the US dollar across the entire spectrum of the market and the flight from risky assets. Investor sentiment worsened after the publication of the IMF forecast on the dynamics of the global economy in 2020. The Fund noted that the decline in global GDP this year could reach 3% and become the most significant since the Great Depression in the 30-s of the last century.

    The dollar is growing, even despite weak retail sales data and a sharp drop in US industrial production. According to official figures, the decline in industrial production amounted to 5.5% y/y, and the decrease in retail sales – 8.7%. Today, you should pay attention to the statistics on initial applications for unemployment benefits in the United States.

    Thus, under current conditions, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.0850. During the day, the euro is likely to maintain its weak position.
     
  10. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. April 17, 2020 – Euro remains weak, approaching 1.08

    At the end of the week, the euro remains under pressure: the current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.0820. The US dollar has received support from published labor market statistics. According to current data, the number of applications for unemployment benefits for the week amounted to 5.245 million against the forecast of 5.350 million and the previous figure of 6.615 million.

    The number of permits issued in March for new construction in the United States amounted to 1.35 million compared with February 1.45 million and a forecast of 1.30 million.

    Today, the final calculation of inflation in March, which was previously 0.7% in annual terms, will act as a determining factor for further dynamics of the euro. Experts predict that the basic consumer price index will remain at 1% y/y, which will put some pressure on the European currency.
     

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