Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by Andrea ForexMart, Aug 23, 2017.

  1. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    359
    Likes Received:
    0
    EUR/USD. May 25, 2020 – Euro remains under pressure at the beginning of the week

    The euro continues to weaken at the beginning of the new week. The current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.0900, however, at the start of trading, the euro was located at 1.0860. The dollar is now being supported by its «safe haven» status amid the uncertainty surrounding China’s new national security bill.

    Investors fear that a law prohibiting terrorist and separatist activities will complicate the observance of the rights and freedoms of the people of Hong Kong, which once already led to a wave of protests. At the same time, the United States may intervene in this matter, which will further aggravate relations between the two largest economies in the world and provoke an escape from risky assets.

    Today in the US is a day off in honor of the celebration of National Memorial Day. The macroeconomic calendar is almost empty, you should pay attention only to data on German GDP for the I quarter. Statistics confirmed a 2.2% decline in the economy, which was the largest decline since the first quarter of 2009. In annual terms, the decline in GDP amounted to 2.3%. All results coincided with analysts' forecasts.
     
  2. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    359
    Likes Received:
    0
    EUR/USD. May 26, 2020 – Euro rose sharply to 1.0970

    On Tuesday, the euro started to rise sharply, reaching 1.0970. Support for the currency was provided by the statistics on the consumer climate index GfK in Germany in June: the figure recovered to -18.9 points after falling to -23.4 in May. The improvement of the index gave a signal about the consumer’s readiness to quit quarantine completely, which is not bad both for the German economy and for the economy of the entire eurozone.

    In the afternoon, attention should be paid to the publication of the ECB's report on financial stability, but it is unlikely to bring any surprises, since all relevant information is constantly coming from the eurozone finance ministers in the process of agreeing on a stabilization fund of 500-600 billion euros.

    In the evening hours data on sales of new homes in the United States in April will be published. Experts predict a sharp decline to 492 thousand against the March figure of 627 thousand. In addition, the May value of the Conference Board consumer confidence index, which could recover to 87.1 after the April decline to 86.9, will be of interest.
     
  3. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    359
    Likes Received:
    0
    EUR/USD. May 27, 2020 – Euro updated two-month high

    The euro has shown a sharp jump in prices to the level of 1.1030 amid a recovery in global economic activity due to the lifting of restrictions in many countries. Expectations that the economy will return to pre-crisis levels support risky assets.

    At the same time, market participants are monitoring the situation around tensions between the United States and China. Also, pressure on the euro may increase if many EU countries oppose the creation of a fund of 500 billion euros. As it’s known, Germany and France have already agreed on the creation of a fund, but not all EU heads of state share their views.

    Yesterday, statistics on new home sales in the United States were published – the indicator unexpectedly increased from 619 thousand in March to 623 thousand in April. Analysts predicted a serious drop in sales. Moreover, the Conference Board consumer confidence index for May rose to 86.6 points from 85.7 earlier. These data provided the dollar with short-term support, but today the growth of the European currency will continue. The main goal of the «bulls» is the level of 1.1050.
     
  4. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    359
    Likes Received:
    0
    EUR/USD. May 28, 2020 – The pair is consolidating at 1.10

    Yesterday, the euro showed significant appreciation, reaching the level of 1.1035. The European currency was supported by news that the European Commission was ready to agree on an additional package of assistance to the region’s economy in the amount of 750 billion euros. However, the optimism of market participants did not last long – the euro quotes began to decline after the speech of the ECB chairman Christine Lagarde.

    The head of the regulator said that the eurozone economy could lose 8-12% on the negative consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. The «soft» scenario for the development of the region’s economy for 2020, which implies a 5% decline in GDP, has already become irrelevant. Thus, the pair fell to the level of 1.10.

    Today is full of interesting statistics from the USA. The States will provide a preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter. The economic slowdown is expected to be 4.8%. Additional pressure on the US dollar today may have data on orders for durable goods: their volume should decrease by another 19.0%. Repeated applications for unemployment benefits can also set a new record - their growth is expected to reach 26.180. Thus, Thursday may turn out to be a black day for the US currency, which will allow EUR/USD quotes to return to the area above 1.10.
     
  5. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    359
    Likes Received:
    0
    EUR/USD. May 29, 2020 – Euro continues its rally

    The euro continues its rally, approaching the level of 1.1150. Support for the currency is provided by increased demand for risky assets, the general weakness of the US dollar in the Forex market and the expectation of the creation of the Fund in the amount of 750 billion euros to restore the European economy.

    The US dollar came under pressure after the release of weak statistics. The economy in the first quarter of 2020 decreased by 5% in annual terms. The forecast assumed a decrease of 4.8%. Data on orders for durable goods also turned out to be far from optimistic. Today, attention should be paid to the April personal income and expenses report and the statement by J. Powell, during which the head of the Fed may hint at the regulator's further plans to support the US economy.

    Eurostat today published data on inflation in the EU: consumer prices in the eurozone in May 2020 increased by 0.1% in annual terms, which provided additional support for the euro. During the day, the EUR/USD pair will continue to grow above the level of 1.1150.
     
  6. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    359
    Likes Received:
    0
    GBP/USD. June 01, 2020 – Sterling grows steadily to an area above 1.24

    The British sterling continues to show an upward trend, reaching a level of 1.24. The currency is supported by the general weakening of the US dollar after statistics released on Friday and D. Trump's speech at a press conference.

    In particular, the Chicago PMI index in May fell from 35.4 to 32.3 points. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell from 73.7 to 72.3 points over the same period. Even more market participants were disappointed with the report on personal expenses in the USA: according to published data, personal expenses in the USA decreased by 13.6% against the forecast of a decrease of 12.6%.

    Donald Trump during his speech said that he was stopping WHO funding, and also again accused China of hiding information about the dangers of coronavirus.

    Today, Britain presented a report on business activity in the manufacturing sector for May. The index recovered to 40.7 points from multi-year lows in April, which provided additional support to sterling. This week, you should pay attention to the report on activity in the services sector in England, which will be released on Wednesday. If statistics disappoint markets, the Bank of England is likely to cut rates or expand the QE program at a meeting in June.
     
  7. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    359
    Likes Received:
    0
    Brent. June 02, 2020 – Oil grows amid recovery in demand

    The oil market continues to grow: Brent quotes on Tuesday reached $39.55 per barrel. Support for prices is provided by a recovery in demand amid a softening of quarantine measures, as well as a reduction in oil production by key oil-producing regions of the world under the OPEC+ deal.

    OPEC+ video conference will take place on Thursday, in the framework of which the heads of countries will discuss the extension of previously reached agreements. Saudi Arabia is in favor of extending the terms of the agreement, however, some countries, including Russia, are not ready to extend the reduction in production after June.

    The price of Brent is rising, despite the deterioration in relations between Beijing and Washington. The day before, China announced a temporary halt to imports of certain types of agricultural products from the United States, including soybeans. Such a move could further aggravate the contradictions between the two countries and call into question current and potential trade relations.
     
  8. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    359
    Likes Received:
    0
    EUR/USD. June 03, 2020 – Euro overcomes 1.12 level for the first time since early March

    An optimistic atmosphere prevails on global markets, and the euro has reached 1.1200. Demand for risky assets is growing as market participants focused on the prospects for business recovery after the coronavirus pandemic, despite ongoing riots in the United States.

    In addition to the general weakening of the US dollar in the Forex market, the impact on the euro is expected by tomorrow's meeting of the ECB, according to which the regulator can increase the program for the purchase of financial assets by 500 billion euros and extend this program after 2020.

    Today, you should pay attention to the ISM index of business activity in the US services sector for May and data on the labor market from ADP. Analysts predict an increase in the number of repeated applications for unemployment benefits after a sudden decrease last week. Moreover, a new record value is predicted - 26,690 thousand. These data can put further pressure on the exchange rate of the American currency.
     
  9. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    359
    Likes Received:
    0
    GBP/USD. June 04, 2020 – Sterling rises from 1.25

    In the morning hours, the British currency continued to recede paired with the dollar, but the «bears» failed to overcome the level of 1.25. The current quotation of the pair GBP/USD is 1.2535. The pressure on sterling was exerted by statements by the Bank of England that it was necessary to be ready for Brexit without a trade transaction in transition. The regulator intends to prepare the financial system in the country for probable risks and economic stresses.

    Yesterday, the UK released data on business activity in the service sector: the indicator unexpectedly rose from 13.4 to 29.0 points. However, these data did not support the British pound.

    The US dollar, on the contrary, strengthened after the release of data on the labor market from ADP: the number of people employed in the country fell by only 2.7 million people, while experts forecast that this figure would fall by 9 million people.
     
  10. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    359
    Likes Received:
    0
    EUR/USD. 05.06. Euro keeps growing momentum

    The euro strengthened at the end of the week, reaching 1.1390. However, in the morning hours, the pair shows a decline to the level of 1.13 as part of the correction. Yesterday, the European Central Bank announced that it intends to support the economy in all available ways, including increasing the volume of the PEPP program by 600 billion euros per month (about $ 1.35 trillion). The program was extended until June 2021.

    The regulator also noted the risk of lowering core inflation in 2020 to 0.9%, which is too little for the European region. Therefore, stimulating the economy can last not only until the summer of next year.

    Today, you should pay attention to statistics on the US labor market. The unemployment rate, at a record high of 14.7%, could rise to even more frightening levels – 19.5%. Last month, the number of jobs decreased by 20,500 thousand, now it can decrease by another 4,870 thousand. And this picture looks extremely pessimistic for the American currency.
     

Share This Page