Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by Andrea ForexMart, Aug 23, 2017.

  1. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. February 2, 2021 – Euro falls on weak data from Germany

    The US dollar continues to trade near local highs in the 1.2050 area. Weak macroeconomic data from Germany put pressure on the European currency.

    According to the European statistical agency Eurostat, unemployment in the region remained at 8.3% in December, in line with market expectations. At the same time, the volume of retail sales fell by 9.6% in December after growing by 1.1% a month earlier. Analysts had expected a 2.6% decline. On an annualized basis, sales growth was 1.5% against the forecast of 5%.

    Today, the dynamics of the pair will be influenced by the report on the eurozone GDP. Analysts predict that the pace of economic decline in the region in the IV quarter should accelerate from -4.3% to -6.0%, which may provoke further sales of the single currency.
     
  2. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. February 3, 2021 – Euro near 2-month lows

    The euro continues to decline paired with the dollar, reaching 1.20. The last time the single currency traded at such levels was at the beginning of December 2020. The weak rates of vaccination in Europe and the ECB's dissatisfaction with the high rate of the European currency remain negative factors for the euro. The regulator noted that it is closely monitoring the dynamics of the exchange rate and does not exclude a decrease in the rate on deposits, if this will help to accelerate inflation.

    Macroeconomic indicators of the euro area are also not encouraging. Although earlier data on GDP for the IV quarter showed a decrease in the economy by 0.7% (q / q) and by 5.1% on an annualized basis, which turned out to be better than forecasts (a decrease by 0.9% and 5.4%, respectively).

    Today we should pay attention to the report of the American labor market from ADP, as well as the index of business activity in the service sector ISM. Experts do not expect strong indicators, which may provoke a weakening of the dollar. Moreover, today's statistics may influence the decision in the Congress on incentives, which, if the package of assistance measures is approved, will entail further sales of the American currency.
     
  3. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. February 04, 2021 – Euro remains weak at 1.20

    The EUR/USD pair continues to update local lows, trading below 1.20. Market participants continue to monitor forecasts for GDP growth in the eurozone and the United States, where European countries are clearly losing. Last week, worsened expectations for German GDP this year were published, and traders are now very attentive to any data from the FRG, projecting them to the entire eurozone as a whole.

    Earlier Germany published the final data on the index of business activity in the service sector for January, where the indicator was 46.7 points against the previous level of 46.8. The same figure for the euro area rose to 45.4 points from the December value of 45.0.

    The preliminary calculation of inflation in the euro area reflected an increase in the indicator by 0.9% (y/y), while the forecast assumed an increase of 0.6%. Core inflation in the region accelerated even more – by 1.4% y/y, while expected to rise by 0.9%.

    At the same time, the US dollar was supported by yesterday's positive statistics from ADP. The January report on the number of jobs in the private sector showed an increase of 174 thousand against the forecast of 48 thousand. It should be assumed that tomorrow's report on the US labor market will also exceed the expectations of traders
     
  4. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. February 05, 2021 – Euro keeps updating new lows

    The euro continues to decline at the end of the first week of February: the current quotation of the EUR/USD pair is 1.1950. The main pressure on the European currency rate is exerted by weak economic indicators from Europe and pessimistic forecasts regarding further economic recovery due to the preservation of lockdown regimes in some eurozone countries.

    At the same time, the US dollar was supported by yesterday's data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits: the figure fell to 779 thousand against the forecast of 828 thousand and the previous value of 812 thousand. Such figures are a very positive signal for the American economy.

    Today it is worth paying attention to the publication of data on the employment market for January. The forecast assumes that unemployment will remain unchanged at 6.7%, and the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector will increase by 85 thousand after a decline in December by 140 thousand. Average hourly wages may rise by 0.3% m/m after the previous growth of 0.8%. Thus, the stronger this statistic is, the more confident the dollar will feel.
     
  5. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    GBP/USD. February 08, 2021 – Sterling holds positions in highs

    Quotes of the GBP/USD pair have continued to trade in a wide range of 1.3560-1.3760 for three weeks already. The current quote for the pair is 1.3700.

    The pound managed to move away from the lows last week after the Bank of England meeting. The regulator said that the nationwide lockdown, which will last for almost two months, will have no impact on the economic outlook in the future, and the UK GDP will recover by the first quarter of 2022.

    Moreover, the regulator noted that there is some discomfort from an overly inflated balance sheet, and this raises expectations of a faster decline in government bond purchases. This speaks of the likely further tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank, which will inevitably lead to a strengthening of the British currency.

    Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty, so the pair will continue to trade near the 1.3700 level.

    EUR/USD. February 08, 2021 – Consolidation just above the 1.20 level

    On Monday, the euro is falling moderately after the publication of economic reports from the euro area. In particular, the Sentix index of investor confidence in the eurozone economy in February fell by 0.2 points against the forecasted growth of 1.9 points. Industrial production in Germany in December remained at the level of November, while analysts had expected an increase of 0.3%.

    Last Friday, it became known that the US Senate passed a bill allowing the adoption of a $1.9 trillion stimulus plan proposed by President Joe Biden without Republican support. This suggests that the final version of the stimulus bill may be agreed upon in March.

    At the same time, weak statistics on the US employment market only accelerates the process of agreeing on the aid package. In January, the unemployment rate fell to 6.3% from 6.7% earlier, but this is where all the positive ends. Only 49 thousand new jobs were created outside the agricultural sector, with a forecast of an increase of 85 thousand.Average hourly wages in January grew by only 0.2% m / m against the forecast of growth by 0.3% and growth by 1.0 %.

    The current quote for the EUR/USD pair is 1.2020. The macroeconomic calendar is empty for today, so the instrument will continue to move almost horizontally in the area just above 1.20.
     
  6. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. February 09, 2021 – Euro is stable around 1.2100

    The euro continues to trade in the area of local highs near 1.2100. The European currency is growing, despite weak statistics from the eurozone. Sentix investor confidence index in February fell to -0.2 points against 1.3 in January. At the same time, the forecast assumed an increase to 4.1 points.

    Data from Germany also turned out to be worse than forecasted: the statistics on industrial production reflected a zero change in the indicator against the forecast of growth by 0.1% m/m and the previous fact of increase by 1.5%.

    So, we can say that the EUR/USD pair is growing mainly due to the general weakness of the US dollar in the Forex market. The American currency is weakening amid the process of adopting the stimulus package in the United States. Some days before, a bill was passed to approve Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion anti-crisis program without Republican support in the Senate.

    Today the macroeconomic calendar is empty, so the pair will move moderately near the 1.2100 level.
     
  7. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. February 10, 2021 – Euro consolidated above 1.2100

    The EUR/USD pair continues to trade above 1.2100 and is not going to give up the pace for now. The current quote for the pair is 1.2125. There were very few macroeconomic statistics on Monday and Tuesday, it is worth noting only the data on the index of optimism in small business in the United States. The indicator fell to 95.0 points, while analysts predicted growth to 96.6.

    Today, all the attention of the markets is drawn to the publication of data on inflation in the US for January. The significance of this report is quite large: it will either give the White House an excuse to speed up the process of agreeing on the aid package, or it will allow it to take the time to make important decisions.

    Analysts expect the US CPI to rise 0.3% mom, after rising 0.4% in December. Core inflation in January could have increased by 0.2% MoM after increasing by 0.1% in December.

    In the evening hours, you should pay attention to the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell. It is expected that the politician will give his assessments to the published statistics on inflation and touch on some of the nuances of the regulator's monetary policy.
     
  8. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. February 12, 2021 – The pair consolidates at 1.2100

    The EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate in the 1.2100 area. Experts note that the instrument has already strengthened enough for traders to «take a break and look around».

    Yesterday was published data on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States: the indicator fell to 793 thousand against the level of last week at 812 thousand, while the forecast assumed a reduction in the indicator to 755 thousand. Analysts note that although statistics on the employment sector are not uniform, there are more and more positive facts in it.

    As for the eurozone, here the short-term outlook looks worse than previously thought. According to experts' expectations, the eurozone's GDP in 2021 will grow by 3.8% against earlier expectations of a rise of 4.2%. At the same time, long-term expectations have improved: next year the European economy may grow by 3.8% instead of the previous forecast of 3.0%.

    Today you should pay attention to the report on December industrial production in the euro area, as well as preliminary data on the consumer confidence index in the US for February. The forecast assumes growth to 80.8 points from 79.0 points earlier.
     
  9. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    EUR/USD. February 16, 2021 – Euro continues to dominate against dollar

    The EUR/USD pair continues its ascent on Tuesday. The current quote for the asset is 1.2163. The euro is strengthening, even despite yesterday's weak economic statistics from the eurozone: industrial production in the eurozone in December fell by 1.6% m/m, while the forecast expected a decline of 0.4% m / m. A month earlier, the indicator rose by 2.6% m/m. On an annual basis, the indicator declined 0.8% against the forecast of a decline of 0.3%.

    Experts predict that in January and February similar indicators will be relatively similar, but in March the picture should change radically.

    Today we should pay attention to the preliminary statistics on GDP in the Eurozone for the IV quarter. The indicator fell by 0.6%, which turned out to be better than the forecasted reduction by 0.7%. On an annualized basis, the region's GDP fell by 5%, which is also better than the forecast of -5.1%.

    Also of interest are the data on economic sentiment in Germany from the ZEW: the index rose to 71.2 points, which is better than the forecast of a decline to 59.6. Considering the general weakness of the US dollar on the market and positive statistics from Europe, we can safely expect further growth of the European currency.
     
  10. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    February 18 | Fundamental analysis of oil market

    Brent quotes continue to renew multi-month highs: on Thursday, the asset quotes reached $65.40 per barrel. The last time at such marks the price of oil was in January 2020. The current Brent quote is $64.70.

    The abnormal cold in Texas, which led to the suspension of the operation of several oil platforms, continues to contribute to the rise in prices. As a result, oil production in the United States fell by 2.6 million barrels per day. Combined with optimism about the rapid spread of vaccines in the world and a decrease in the number of coronavirus cases, this will lead to the fact that the bullish rally in oil prices will continue in the near future.

    An additional local factor in the growth of Brent quotes was a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API), according to which US oil reserves fell by 5.8 million barrels over the week. Today you should pay attention to similar statistics from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Department of Energy. Analysts predict a decline in US oil reserves by 2 million barrels.

    However, there are also risks. Experts note that the current rise in prices may lead to a revision of the terms of the OPEC+ deal at a meeting on March 3-4. It is also expected that Saudi Arabia may announce the cancellation of the unilateral production cut of 1 million barrels per day during February and March. In this scenario, the oil market may face a deep correction.
     

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