Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by Andrea ForexMart, Aug 23, 2017.

  1. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    759
    Likes Received:
    0
    Oil rises continuously on the back of the news from the USA and Europe

    Today, the world oil market demonstrates steady growth following a spectacular rise in the past week and a general three-week increase against the background of an improvement in the global situation.

    The main upward factor for the positive dynamics remains the prospects for demand for oil in developed countries, which is permanently increasing due to high rates of vaccination and the lifting of restrictive measures.

    Thus, US residents began to actively return to work, gather in companies and visit crowded places. In addition, the average daily air traffic in the United States, for the first time since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, has stepped over the level of 2 million passengers.

    According to the forecasts of the International Energy Agency, world oil demand will return to the dock level by the end of next year. This year, according to IEA experts, demand will grow by 5.4 million barrels per day - up to 96.4 million barrels per day, and in 2022 - by 3.1 million barrels per day.

    In its Friday report, the agency said that OPEC and its allies must increase oil production to ensure the required level of supply in world markets.

    At the same time, analysts cite multiple positive news from North America and Europe that are opening after the pandemic quarantines as the reason for the bright growth of the oil market over the past week.

    At the time of writing this material, the oil market is showing the following indicators: the price of August Brent oil futures on the London ICE Futures Exchange was at $73.35 per barrel, exceeding the previous session's closing level by 0.91%.

    The cost of July contracts for WTI crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange NYMEX increased by 0.78% - $71.46 per barrel.
     
  2. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    759
    Likes Received:
    0
    The Fed's rhetoric caused BTC to "stumble". Is its failure a short-term phenomenon?

    The first cryptocurrency did not stay away from the main event of the current week – the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). However, the decisions taken by the regulator tripped bitcoin, which demonstrated a downward trend.

    On the evening of Wednesday, June 16, the main digital asset fell to $38,100, but later regained some losses. On the morning of Thursday, June 17, the first cryptocurrency was trading near $39,200, losing 2.8% over the past day. The driver of the sharp decline in bitcoin was the results of the June meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Recall that the US regulator kept the key rate at the level of 0-0.25% per annum, and also left low interest rates until the moment when the level of employment and inflation will be near the target 2%. At the same time, the Federal Reserve extended the program of asset repurchases in the amount of $120 billion per month.

    The publication of the Fed report contributed to a noticeable decline in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. To date, the capitalization of the digital asset market has decreased by 2%. Experts are afraid of further subsidence, although they record minor signs of stabilization. Experts note a long-term medium-term correction for bitcoin, which continues to increase. According to analysts, the crypto market has tested the lower limits of the long-term trend in the BTC (near the support level of $34,972) and continues to recover. On the morning of Thursday, June 17, the BTC/USD pair was trading near $39,197, trying to expand the boundaries of the current range.

    The market for virtual cryptocurrencies has repeatedly tried to turn upward, acting within the short-term trend. According to experts, the possibility of breaking the upper limit of this range ($43,402) is quite achievable. However, the implementation of this plan is difficult at the moment, although in the near future it is possible.
     
  3. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    759
    Likes Received:
    0
    EUR/USD. Fed woke up the dollar

    Markets reacted to the FOMC meeting as if they were genuinely surprised by the shifting of the federal funds rate hike from 2024 to 2023. Did investors really believe that the Fed would turn a blind eye to rising inflation and remain the most peaceful central bank in the world? If so, they were in for a serious disappointment, resulting in a 1.8% collapse in the EUR/USD over the course of two trading days.

    To prevent the recurrence of the 2013 taper tantrum, the Fed promised to inform in advance of all changes in monetary policy. In fact, the Central Bank has let its guard down, and the fact that rates may be raised twice in 2023 has become a real thunderbolt for investors. Short positions on the US dollar began to collapse en masse, which led to the fall of the EUR/USD to the base of the 19th figure. The confidence of the market majority that the main currency pair will soon reach the level of 1.25 is gone, and Nordea predicts a fall in the euro to $1.15 by the end of the year against the background of the outperforming dynamics of US inflation over European inflation.

    In my opinion, what happened was what should have happened. The Fed could not look at inflation at the level of the 1990s indefinitely. Its previous passivity could be explained by disappointing statistics on American employment, but in the near future, the situation in the US labor market risks a serious change. Judging by the dynamics of vacancies, the gap between potential and actual employment will be filled quickly. If this does not happen, wages will increase dramatically. Both options are potentially bullish for the US dollar.

    How can the euro respond to the US dollar? Because of the Fed, investors forgot that thanks to the accelerated vaccination in the EU, a boom in economic growth is expected in the eurozone in the second half of the year. That Brussels successfully sold the first bonds from the European Rescue Fund, while the demand at the auction was off the scale. That after the ECB meeting, the members of the Governing Council recalled that the emergency asset purchase program will end in March 2022. That next year, the currency bloc will surpass the United States in terms of GDP growth. I do not think that the "bulls" on EUR/USD will just throw a white flag.

    The key events of the week to June 25 will be the speeches of Christine Lagarde and Jerome Powell, as well as the releases of data on European business activity, the German business climate, and American orders for durable goods. The market needs the dust from the shocks to settle, and then it will determine the direction of further movement.

    Technically, only the return of EUR/USD quotes above 1.198 will revive the scenario of the transformation of the blue "Shark" to 5-0, followed by the continuation of the rally to the targets on the "Wolf Wave". With this option, purchases will become relevant. If it is not possible to catch on to 1.198, there is a scenario with the implementation of the target by 88.6% according to the model of the red "Shark". It is located near 1.175, so we use a sell strategy on pullbacks.
     
  4. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    759
    Likes Received:
    0
    Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

    A sell signal appeared in the market last Friday, but it had to be ignored because it came when the MACD line was at the oversold area. Nonetheless, it set off a strong bearish trend, where if traders had short positions, it was easy to earn around 30 pips of profit.

    Trading recommendations for June 21

    Pay attention to the upcoming economic reports from the ECB and Bundesbank. Positive projections will help euro rally, while weaker data will resume the decline in EUR / USD. Then, in the afternoon, the Federal Reserve will hold a press conference, where if they announce future changes on monetary policy, dollar will continue to rise, while pound will collapse further.

    For long positions:

    Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1876 (green line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.1942. Any rise in EUR / USD is going to be seen as a good opportunity to sell, so be careful when setting up transactions. And before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

    For short positions:

    Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1840 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1775. Pressure will continue on the pair, and the breakout of yesterday's lows will form a new wave of decline in the market. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

    Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

    And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
     
  5. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    759
    Likes Received:
    0
    Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

    Two buy signals appeared in the market on Monday, but the first one had to be ignored because it came when the MACD line was at the overbought area. Meanwhile, the second signal appeared when the MACD line was moving upwards from zero, so euro was able to climb by as much as 45 pips. But there were no subsequent signals because euro did not reach the target value.

    Trading recommendations for June 22

    Although euro rose a bit on Monday, further growth is very unlikely because today, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a speech, which will most likely bring demand back to dollar and accordingly, put pressure on risk assets. Powell might discuss future actions on monetary policy, as well as shed light on the possibility of scaling down the bond purchase program.

    During the European session, ECB Board member Philip Lane will also deliver a speech, which may help euro break above all-time highs. Reports on EU consumer confidence and US home sales will also be released, but all this will be no match to Powell's statements.

    For long positions:

    Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1919 (green line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.1965. However, a price increase is very unlikely because the upcoming speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will most likely bring demand back to dollar, which will push risk assets into a bear market. In any case, before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

    For short positions:

    Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1895 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1851. Pressure will return on the pair if the Eurozone releases weak economic reports. A massive drop may also occur after the Fed press conference, provided that the statements of Jerome Powell bring demand back to dollar. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

    Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

    And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
     
  6. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    759
    Likes Received:
    0
    American stock indices rise 0.2-0.8%, Nasdaq hits new record

    Speaking to the US Congress on Tuesday, Powell reiterated his view that the acceleration in inflation in the country is likely to be temporary, noting that the US Central Bank will continue to support the economy. The U.S. economy is showing steady improvement, according to his speech at the House of Representatives Coronavirus Subcommittee.

    US employment growth will pick up in the coming months and inflationary pressures will ease as the US economy continues to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, Powell said. The lending programs adopted by the Federal Reserve at the height of the crisis have freed up more than $ 2 trillion in funding that helped cut job losses in companies, nonprofits and local governments, he said.

    Powell's comments, released Monday night, eased financial markets' fears about the Fed's imminent withdrawal of stimulus measures due to uncontrolled inflation in the United States, said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.

    Meanwhile, New York Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) chief John Williams said on Monday that he is not ready for the Fed to ditch the support it provides to the economy amid uncertainty over the pace of recovery from the pandemic.

    John Williams said the economy is recovering at a fast pace and the medium-term outlook looks very good. However, the data and conditions have not improved enough for the FOMC to abandon a monetary policy that actively supports the economic recovery.

    US existing home sales declined 0.9% in May to 5.8 million homes on an annualized basis, the National Association of Realtors said in a report on Tuesday. Thus, the decline was recorded for the fourth month in a row. As a result, the indicator dropped to an eleven-month low - from June 2020. Meanwhile, compared to May last year, resales jumped by 44.6%, which is primarily due to the low comparison base due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic at this time last year.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 68.61 points (0.2%) to close the market and amounted to 33945.58 points. A day earlier, the indicator showed the maximum rise in percentage terms since the beginning of March.

    Standard & Poor's 500 rose by 21.65 points (0.51%) - to 4246.44 points.

    The Nasdaq Composite added 111.79 points (0.79%) to 14253.27 points, which is a new record for the close.

    The leaders of growth in trading on Tuesday were the shares of large technology companies. Netflix Inc. rose 2.4%, Amazon.com Inc. - by 1.5%, Apple Inc. rose 1.3%, Microsoft Corp. - by 1.1%, Facebook Inc. - on 2%.

    Alphabet Inc., the parent company of Google, gained 0.4%, despite the fact that the European Commission launched a formal antitrust investigation against the American Google, in which it intends to assess the facts of abuse by the company of its leading position in the online advertising market.

    Stock quotes of the American GameStop Corp. jumped by 10%. The owner of a chain of video games and consumer electronics stores raised about $ 1.126 billion by placing 5 million shares at market price. The proceeds from the sale are planned to be used for general corporate needs, as well as investments in growth initiatives and strengthening the company's balance sheet.

    Market value of Blackstone Group Inc. increased by 0.1%. The American investment fund buys for $ 6 billion Home Partners of America, which specializes in the provision of single-family homes for rent.

    Sanderson Farms Inc. added 10.3% in price. The American poultry producer is considering selling the business amid growing demand for chicken products, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing knowledgeable sources.

    Capitalization of Exxon Mobil Corp. increased by 1.9%. According to Bloomberg, citing sources, the company will reduce the number of employees in its American offices by 5-10% per year over the next 3-5 years, using a performance assessment system to identify low-productivity employees.
     
  7. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    759
    Likes Received:
    0
    Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair

    Three buy signals appeared in the market on Wednesday, but all of them had to be ignored because they came when the MACD line was at the overbought area. There were no other signals for the rest of the day.

    Trading recommendations for June 24

    Euro rallied on Wednesday amid good reports from the Eurozone and weak data from United States. And today, this buying pressure may continue, especially if IFO releases strong assessments in Germany's economy. Otherwise, euro will post a decline.

    Then, in the afternoon, data on US jobless claims may bring demand back to dollar, which will accordingly lead to a drop in EUR / USD.

    For long positions:

    Open a long position when euro reaches 1.1940 (green line on the chart), and then take profit around the level of 1.1991. Strong reports from Germany may set off a rally. But before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it.

    For short positions:

    Open a short position when euro reaches 1.1916 (red line on the chart), and then take profit at the level of 1.1856. Pressure could return at any moment as the pair is currently overbought. But before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it.

    Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

    And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
     
  8. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    759
    Likes Received:
    0
    Stock Asia is trading in positive territory

    According to IG Singapore-based market strategist Yeap Joon Rong, a breakthrough in infrastructure spending talks overnight lifted spirits as spending has historically been a positive factor for the markets. Areas that depend on economic recovery will show strengthening.

    The Japanese Nikkei 225 index by 8:23 GMT + 2 increased by 0.7%.

    Among the leaders in the growth of quotations are the shares of the automobile company Mazda Motor Corp. (+ 8.7%), electronics manufacturer Panasonic Corp. (T: 6752) (+ 4.8%), steel makers Kobe Steel (+ 4.5%) and Nippon Steel Corp. (+ 4%), producing perfumery Shiseido Co. (+ 4.2%).

    The price of securities of the chip maker Advantest Corp. is also rising. (+ 1.5%), investment and technology SoftBank Group (T: 9984) (+ 1%), consumer electronics manufacturer Sony (+ 1.4%) and automaker Toyota Motor (+ 0.1%).

    Panasonic, which makes lithium batteries for electric vehicle maker Tesla, sold its entire stake in the American company last fiscal year, which ended in March, the Nikkei reported Friday. According to him, the amount received could be about $ 3.88 billion.

    By 8:28 GMT + 2, China's Shanghai Composite Index rose 1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added 1.1%.

    In particular, a significant increase in the course of trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is shown by the quotations of securities of the Internet company Meituan (+ 4.3%), brewery Budweiser Brewing Co. APAC Ltd. (+ 3.9%), Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Ltd. (+ 3%).

    In addition, shares of online retailer Alibaba Group (+ 2.2%), Internet giant Tencent Holdings (+ 1.9%), oil companies CNOOC (+ 2.2%) and PetroChina (+ 1.85%) are gaining in price. ...

    At the same time, the cost of the car manufacturer Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. (-0.8%), pharmaceutical Sino Biopharmaceutical Ltd. (-0.9%) and sporting goods manufacturer Anta Sports Products (-0.9%).

    The South Korean Kospi Index rose 0.5% by 8:22 GMT + 2. South Korea's manufacturing business confidence index reached 98 points in June, up from 96 points a month earlier. This is the highest level since April 2011. In the non-manufacturing area, the indicator remained at 81 points.

    The market value of one of the world's largest chip manufacturers, Samsung Electronics Co. rose 0.25%, while the market value of automaker Hyundai Motor fell 0.2%.

    Australian S & P / ASX 200 added 0.5% by 8:23 GMT + 2.

    Capitalization of the world's largest mining companies BHP and Rio Tinto (LON: RIO) rose 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively.
     
  9. jhonmason69

    jhonmason69 Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2021
    Posts:
    7
    Likes Received:
    0
    Show some EUR/USD trade analysis for short-term investment.
     
  10. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

    Joined:
    Mar 2019
    Posts:
    759
    Likes Received:
    0
    Above $1,800: Gold rises in price for sixth session in a row

    On Tuesday morning, the price of gold bars was able to finally break through the psychological mark of $1,800. At the time of writing, the noble asset rose 1.07%, or $19. Its price was $1,802.3.

    Silver also showed a confident positive trend. The asset rose by 0.88%, jumping to the level of $26,735.

    According to analysts, the main catalyst for the growth of the precious metals market is the weakening dollar. On Tuesday, the US currency continues to lose its superiority against its competitors.

    Gold has been growing for the sixth consecutive session, drawing strength from other sources as well. The decline in 10-year US bonds and the difficult epidemiological situation in the world give a good boost to the yellow asset.

    The new strain of the delta coronavirus increases the risk of a slowdown in economic activity in a number of Asian countries, which strengthens the position of gold as the main safe haven asset.

    In addition, the precious metal received significant support last week from the US labor market. The sudden increase in unemployment prompted investors to think that perhaps the US Federal Reserve will not rush to change the current course of monetary policy, keeping interest rates at the current level.

    If this scenario is confirmed, bad days will come for the US currency again, unlike gold, for which such a development of events will be an excellent springboard for growth.

    Meanwhile, some analysts associate the current dynamics of the precious metal with a technical correction. The yellow asset is recovering losses after a sharp collapse last month. However, if significant negative factors appear, its price may decline again.

    Now, investors are waiting for the release of the minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting. Tomorrow's comments about inflation and interest rates may turn gold around, as it was last month. Back in June, the regulator predicted the probability of a rate hike in 2 years.
     

Share This Page