Daily Market Analysis From Forexmart

Discussion in 'Forex - Currencies Forums' started by Andrea ForexMart, Aug 23, 2017.

  1. jhonmason69

    jhonmason69 Senior Investor

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  2. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    US election: Wall Street at a crossroads

    The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices ended the trading session in the negative on Friday, retreating from the record highs reached during the day. This decline occurred against the backdrop of a decline in the sector of chip manufacturers and mixed data on the labor market, reflecting the exceeding of expectations for the number of jobs created while the unemployment rate rose.

    During the trading session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices briefly hit all-time highs, but by evening their dynamics changed to decline. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (.SOX) experienced a noticeable drop, losing 4% by the close of the day after earlier reaching the day's high.

    Shares of Nvidia (NVDA.O), highly regarded in the market for its contributions to the development of chips for artificial intelligence, suffered a 5.6% loss, ending their six consecutive sessions of gains. This was despite the fact that they were up more than 5% in early trading.

    Broadcom (AVGO.O) shares in the chipmaker index also experienced a significant decline of 7%, driven by low investor expectations for the company's full-year outlook. In addition, Marvell Technology (MRVL.O) lost 11.4% in value after its first-quarter guidance fell short of market expectations due to weaker demand.

    The stock posted gains at the open after data showed that U.S. job growth accelerated in February, with job openings in the nonfarm payroll sector rising by 275,000, exceeding analysts' forecasts for a gain of 200,000. At the same time, the January jobs data was downwardly revised.

    There is also an increase in the unemployment rate in February to 3.9% compared to the previous figure of 3.7%, which was maintained for three months. It should be noted that the rate of wage growth fell to 0.1% on a month-over-month basis.

    Brian Price, head of investment management at Commonwealth Financial Network, highlighted a trend toward more restrained spending on the part of consumers. This is reflected in shares of Costco Wholesale (COST.O), which posted a 7.6% decline as its quarterly sales volumes fell short of expectations due to moderate demand for higher-priced goods.

    Nevertheless, Price emphasized that overall market sentiment remains optimistic with the anticipation of continued growth in the absence of any negative factors.

    He expressed his belief that the market is focused on the continuation of the favorable situation: inflation is expected to be maintained at a moderate level and the Federal Reserve is expected to initiate a policy of easing economic conditions.

    Upcoming data for February, which will be released next week and include information on the consumer price index (CPI) and retail sales, will provide additional information that could influence the assessment of the possibility of lowering interest rates.

    In a speech on Thursday, Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, shared his view that the central bank is nearing the point where it is confident enough that inflation is falling, allowing it to begin the process of lowering interest rates.

    While investors continue to analyze possible profits and keep an eye on monetary policy, they are also beginning to consider a new factor that could significantly impact market conditions this year - the upcoming U.S. presidential election in 2024.

    In an address to the nation on Thursday, US President Joe Biden put forward a proposal to raise corporate taxes, while his predecessor and potential Republican Party rival, Donald Trump, earlier in 2017 passed legislation aimed at cutting taxes for companies and the wealthy. Biden also expressed pride in U.S. economic achievements during his presidency.

    It is difficult to determine how politicians' proposals and initiatives ahead of the election will affect asset market prices. The winner of the election is likely to face the challenge of dealing with a divided Congress, which could significantly complicate any legislative initiatives.

    This uncertainty does not stop analysts from trying to assess how political changes may interact with other key elements influencing market dynamics. Such factors include increasing interest in the business outlook for artificial intelligence and adjusting expectations about when the Federal Reserve might begin easing monetary policy. The S&P 500 Index (.SPX) has made notable gains, up 7.4% YTD and near all-time highs.

    Polls show a tight contest between the 81-year-old Biden and 77-year-old Trump. Despite the U.S. economy performing better than most advanced economies, the American people generally express higher confidence in Trump's economic competence in polls.

    As part of his speech on Thursday, Biden unveiled an initiative to impose a 21% minimum tax on the profits of corporations whose revenues exceed $1 billion, building on the provisions of the 2022 Clean Energy Act.

    In addition, he expressed his intention to reinstate his "billionaires tax" initiative, which would impose a minimum tax of 25% on the income of U.S. citizens whose wealth exceeds $100 million.

    Analysts note that the Republicans' success in the elections is likely to entail an extension of the 2017 tax cuts, which could lead to higher inflation. At the same time, the Democrats' victory will result in an increase in tax rates for households and corporations with high income.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) index of industrial companies closed down 68.66 points, or 0.18%, stopping at 38,722.69. The S&P 500 Index (.SPX) fell 33.67 points, or 0.65%, to settle at 5,123.69, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) fell 188.26 points, or 1.16%, to 16,085.11.

    Among the 11 key sectors in the S&P 500, the technology sector (.SPLRCT) posted the largest decline, losing 1.8%. It was followed by the consumer staples sector (.SPLRCS) with a 0.8% drop, where Costco made a significant contribution.

    Over the past week, the S&P 500 Index declined 0.26%, the Nasdaq fell 1.17%, and the Dow Jones lost 0.93%.

    Meanwhile, real estate stocks (.SPLRCR) were the biggest gainers, rising 1.1%. Behind them are shares of energy companies (.SPNY), which grew by 0.4%.

    Shares of Gap (GPS.N) jumped 8.2% as the retailer beat Wall Street analysts' forecasts for fourth-quarter results. That was due to increased demand for a revamped assortment of Old Navy and Gap-branded merchandise during the holiday season, as well as lower volumes of discounted merchandise.

    On the New York Stock Exchange, the number of stocks that increased in value outnumbered those that declined by a ratio of 1.25 to 1, with 708 new highs versus 48 new lows.

    On the Nasdaq exchange, the number of stocks that increased totaled 2,086, while 2,192 declined, showing a predominance of declining over rising stocks with a ratio of about 1.05 to 1.

    The S&P 500 index marked 65 new 52-week highs and recorded no new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 351 new highs and 83 new lows.

    Trading volume on U.S. exchanges reached 12.29 billion shares, which compares with an average of 12.08 billion over the past 20 sessions.
     
  3. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    On the verge of inflation: how the Dow Jones and S&P reacted for the third session in a row

    On Tuesday, amid expectations of important economic releases during the short holiday week, US stock markets fell, marking the third consecutive decline for the Dow Jones and Standard & Poor's 500 indexes. Investors are in a wait-and-see mood as they analyze potential changes in Federal Reserve policy.

    Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 2.92% on CEO Elon Musk's announcement that he would test self-driving technology for the company's vehicles, available to both new and existing customers in the United States. Over the current week, the stock price has increased by about 4%, although during the year their quotes have decreased by more than 28%.

    Market participants are particularly focused on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's main tool for assessing inflation. It is expected that the latest data on this indicator will be published on Friday, a day when trading on American exchanges will not be held due to the celebration of Good Friday.

    It is predicted that in February the inflation index will increase by 0.4%, reaching 2.5% at the annual level. Meanwhile, core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, is expected to rise 0.3% for the month, keeping annual growth at 2.8%, according to expert forecasts.

    "Friday is key. All attention will be focused on this day, and any events before then will be perceived as background. Therefore, we should not expect significant changes in the market until the data is published," said Stephen Massocca, deputy president of Wedbush Securities. San Francisco.

    "It would be extremely risky for the market if there were any speculation that Fed rates have not yet peaked. Any hint from the Fed that interest rates could be raised further could signal an immediate shift away from risk assets."

    The U.S. economic sector is growing, with February orders for durable goods exceeding forecasts and equipment investment pointing to the start of a recovery. According to the Conference Board, consumer confidence remained virtually unchanged in March at 104.7.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 31.31 points, down 0.08%, to 39,282.33. The S&P 500 was down 14.61 points (down 0.28%) at 5,203.58, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 68.77 points (down 0.42%) at 16. 315.70.

    Last week, all three major US indexes hit new all-time highs after the Federal Reserve confirmed its forecasts for three interest rate cuts this year.

    Market expectations for the Fed to cut rates by at least 25 basis points in June continue to rise, now reaching 70.4% probability according to CME's FedWatch tool, up markedly from last week's 59.2%.

    Shares of the media and technology group linked to Donald Trump rose 16.1% to close at $57.99 after temporarily hitting $79.38 on the first day of trading following its reverse merger with the company. , specializing in the issue of securities.

    McCormick (MKC.N) jumped 10.52% to become the top gainer in the S&P 500, as its first-quarter sales and earnings beat market expectations.

    Shares of Seagate Technology (STX.O) also posted strong gains, rising 7.38%, after analysts at Morgan Stanley upgraded the hard drive maker's stock from overweight to overweight.

    At the same time, United Parcel Service (UPS.N) shares lost 8.16% following the release of the company's 2026 guidance.

    On the New York Stock Exchange, decliners outnumbered advancers by a 1.24-to-1 ratio. A similar trend was seen on the Nasdaq, where decliners outnumbered advancers by a 1.34-to-1 ratio.

    Trading volume in US stock markets reached 10.43 billion shares, less than the average volume of 12.23 billion shares over the past 20 sessions. Trading activity is expected to remain moderate throughout the current week, and as the holidays approach, volumes may decline further.

    The pan-European stock index STOXX 600 gained 0.24%, while MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan closed 0.25% higher at 535.59.

    Market attention is focused on the Japanese yen, which remains at its weakest against the dollar since 1990 despite the Bank of Japan raising interest rates last week for the first time in 17 years.

    The dollar strengthened 0.1% against the yen to hit 151.56, raising the risk of Japanese intervention to prevent further weakening of its currency. In October 2022, the dollar/yen exchange rate rose to 151.94, followed by a decline due to intervention.

    Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Tuesday expressed readiness to consider options to stabilize the yen, reiterating statements made the day before by the country's top monetary policy official.

    The US dollar was marginally weaker, down 0.06% at 7.248 against the offshore Chinese yuan, which strengthened thanks to an unexpectedly high trading range setting. The yuan's fall the previous Friday, after a period of market volatility, had sparked concern among investors, with some speculation that China could loosen controls on its currency, allowing it to fall.

    Spot gold rose 0.24% to $2,176.69 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures rose 0.09% to $2,176.80 an ounce. In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin lost 1.74% to $69,753.73, while Ethereum fell 1.55% to $3,572.7.
     
  4. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    The main events by the morning: April 1

    Sales of Russian gas for rubles brought the country an income of 2.3 trillion rubles. According to Eurostat and the UN Comtrade platform, Hungary, Italy, Greece and Slovakia became the main buyers of gas from Russia under the new conditions. However, some importing countries (e.g. Germany and Austria) hid information about their purchases of Russian gas.

    China has expressed its readiness to hold a dialogue with Taiwan only if the latter recognizes the principle of «one China». This was stated by Chinese Ambassador to Russia Zhang Hanhui. He also noted that China highly appreciates Russia's support in the Taiwan issue. The problems between China and Taiwan began in 2016 after Taipei's refusal to recognize the 1992 Consensus.

    China has maintained its leadership in chip imports for 22 years. In 2023, the country acquired chips worth $350 billion. Hong Kong has remained the leader in chip exports for the past 10 years. The largest increase in purchases over the past year has been observed in Albania – almost 4.4 thousand times.

    Monetization will appear in Telegram. However, the new advertisements are not yet available in Russia, Ukraine, Palestine and Israel. Administrators will be able to receive 50% of the revenue from advertising in their channels. Payments will only be made in TON.

    The Central Bank of Russia stated that there is no better option for storing reserves than the Chinese yuan. The bank also noted the increasing role and liquidity of the Chinese currency at the international level in recent years. Last year, the yuan replaced the US dollar as the most traded currency in Russia.

    Microsoft and OpenAI plan to create a Stargate data center with an artificial intelligence supercomputer for $100 billion. Information about this appeared in the publication The Information with reference to three sources close to the project.
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  5. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Financial future on the horizon: US stocks rise ahead of consumer price news

    On Tuesday, ahead of the release of key inflation data, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices showed moderate growth, despite a decline in the financial sector. This happened ahead of the reporting season for leading US banks, which begins on Friday.

    The Nasdaq Composite, supported by strength in semiconductors, posted a notable gain, while the S&P 500 gained minimally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed almost unchanged.

    Investors were focused on Wednesday's consumer price index, which could have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's interest rate adjustment decisions in light of recent positive economic data, including an impressive labor market report.

    Among the large banks whose reports interested the market were JPMorgan Chase & Co, Wells Fargo & Co and Citigroup Inc, which are included in the S&P banking index and showed a decline in their activity in recent trading.

    "Financial companies' first-quarter earnings typically set the pace for the entire season," said Bill Northey, who serves as senior director of investments at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Billings, Montana. "We see cyclical sectors as a measure of the overall health of the corporate landscape in the United States."

    Analysts predict that inflation will gradually decline toward the Federal Reserve's target level of 2%. However, the National Federation of Independent Business on Tuesday reported optimism among small businesses fell to an 11-year low in March, with inflation as the top concern.

    "The decline in small business sentiment is a key signal," Green emphasized. "This is a repeat of the trend of recent years, where large companies feel confident, while small businesses experience significant difficulties."

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 9.13 points, or 0.02%, to close at 38883.67. The S&P 500 rose 7.52 points, or 0.14%, to finish at 5209.91, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 52.68 points, or 0.32%, to close at 16306.64.

    Of the 11 key sectors in the S&P 500, nine posted gains, with real estate posting the biggest gains. The financial services sector showed the least dynamics.

    According to the latest forecasts from LSEG, overall first-quarter earnings growth for S&P 500 companies is expected to reach 5% year over year, down from initial expectations of 7.2% at the start of the quarter.

    Stocks related to cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology fell, reflecting the decline in the value of Bitcoin. In particular, shares of Coinbase Global and software developer MicroStrategy lost 5.5% and 4.8%, respectively.

    Moderna stock stood out, however, rising 6.2% after announcing positive results from an early-stage trial of a customized cancer vaccine developed with Merck.

    Alphabet Inc shares also rose 1.1%, moving the company closer to the significant milestone of a $2 trillion market capitalization.

    On the New York Stock Exchange, advancers outnumbered decliners by a 1.44-to-1 ratio. On the Nasdaq, advancers outnumbered decliners by a 1.33-to-1 ratio.

    Oil prices fell for the second day in a row as negotiations to reach a truce in Gaza continue, encountering obstacles from Egyptian and Qatari mediators. On Monday, Brent oil prices fell for the first time in the last five trading sessions, while the price of American oil fell for the first time in the last seven days.

    The US dollar is showing stability amid investors' anticipation of the upcoming US inflation data expected on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen remains near its multi-year lows, prompting vigilance among traders about possible moves by Japan to stabilize the currency.

    Those expectations bode well for the big banks' first quarterly earnings reports on Friday.

    "We are on the verge of important inflation data and financial reports. Some investors may choose to adopt a more conservative strategy ahead of these key events," said Jeff Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Schwab.

    "Despite the stock market's strong first quarter performance, the question remains whether earnings were strong enough to support this development, and whether guidance from business leaders will be able to confirm the more confident growth expectations that the market has already priced in?"

    At the beginning of the trading day, the shares showed growth, but then the dynamics weakened, and by the close of trading, some of them were able to partially recover lost positions.

    Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management, said: "With current high valuations and questions about the Federal Reserve's rate plans, markets are reflecting the situation with perfect accuracy. Any higher-than-expected CPI reading could make it difficult to be optimistic about a Fed rate cut."

    The MSCI global equity index rose 1.32 points, or 0.17%, to 779.36, recovering from an earlier decline of about 0.5%.

    Europe's STOXX 600 index fell 0.61% as investors awaited a policy statement from the European Central Bank on Thursday, paying particular attention to any comments from President Christine Lagarde about a possible rate cut in June.

    US Treasury yields fell in anticipation of the release of US inflation data.

    Expectations for a rate cut in the US have weakened amid continued economic activity. Markets place the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in June at about 56%, down from 61.5% last week, according to analysis from CME Group's FedWatch tool.

    The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 6.6 basis points to 4.358%, down from 4.424% at the end of the previous day, while the 30-year yield fell 5.7 basis points to 4.4964%. with 4.553%.

    The yield on two-year U.S. Treasury notes, which often reacts to changes in interest rate expectations, eased 5.1 basis points, falling to 4.7384% from 4.789% late Monday.

    The foreign exchange market was little changed, with the US dollar index down 0.02% at 104.09, while the euro weakened 0.01% at $1.0857. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar lost 0.03% to settle at 151.74.

    Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stressed the country is open to all options to deal with the yen's excessive fluctuations, reiterating its readiness to act in response to the currency's recent sharp decline.

    In energy, despite ongoing instability in the Middle East, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has adjusted upward its forecasts for US crude oil production for the current and next years, and also raised its forecasts for global and domestic oil prices .

    US oil prices fell 1.39%, or $1.20, to $85.23 per barrel. At the same time, Brent crude oil prices fell 1.06%, or $0.96, to trade at $89.42 per barrel.

    Analysts said the spot price of gold hit a new record for eight straight sessions, supported by strong buying by central banks and rising geopolitical instability.

    The price of spot gold increased by 0.57%, reaching $2,352.23 per ounce. At the same time, gold futures in the US showed an increase of 0.84%, settling at $2,351.40 per ounce.
     
  6. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Hot forecast for EUR/USD on April 18, 2024

    In the absence of economic reports or other news that could affect the market, investors finally paid attention to the dollar's overbought condition. So, there was nothing to prevent the local correction, which, by the way, is still far from over. The market imbalances, although reduced, have not disappeared altogether. And except for the data on unemployment claims in the United States, today's economic calendar is empty. And with the US dollar still overbought, these reports are not particularly important. Moreover, claims are expected to increase by 4,000, and that's incredibly small. So we can basically say that nothing will change. Such minor changes are not capable of influencing investor sentiment. In other words, the pair will likely correct higher on Thursday.

    The EUR/USD pair has started a long-awaited corrective movement. The support level at 1.0600 played a role, which the quote recently approached.

    The RSI has left the oversold zone on the 4-hour chart, and it has upwardly crossed the 50 moving average. This indicates an increase in the volume of long positions in the euro.

    On the same time frame, two out of three of the Alligator's MAs are intertwined, corresponding to a sign of a slowdown in the downtrend cycle.

    Outlook
    Considering the extent of the euro's weakness, we can assume that there is still room for more movement. For this reason, the pair is expected to rise to the level of 1.0700.

    Complex indicator analysis indicates a downward cycle in the short- and long-term timeframes.

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  7. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Gold edges lower as Middle East tensions ease

    The yellow metal continues to decline, plunging investors into gloom and prompting them to reassess their trading strategies. However, some analysts are confident that the precious metal will rebound in the near future, viewing its decline as a natural step before another rally. The optimism of experts bolsters investors, although some market players remain skeptical about the near-term prospects of gold.

    On Monday, April 22, the precious metal sharply fell amid reduced geopolitical risks and decreased demand for safe-haven assets. As a result, gold lost more than 2.7%. According to estimates, gold's decline at the end of the day was the most significant since June 2022.

    The metal depreciated amid easing tensions in the Middle East. Such a development reduced the risk premium in the market. At the moment, gold continues to trade downwards after the sharpest decline in two years.

    The catalyst for the current downtrend in the precious metal was the de-escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran. Against this backdrop, many experts are pessimistic about the near-term prospects of gold. They believe that investors will turn to other sources of capital preservation. According to some specialists, prices for the precious metal may break below the $2,300 per ounce level and then plummet to $2,200 per ounce. Analysts recommend preparing for a significant decline in the yellow metal amid extremely overbought conditions, as indicated by the RSI on the daily chart.

    Currency strategists at ABN AMRO Bank have maintained their forecast, according to which gold will lose heavy losses, diving to $2,000 per ounce by the end of 2024. The bank's specialists cite excessively high current prices, dollar strengthening, liquidation of assets in gold ETFs, and the absence of a physical gold shortage in the global market as reasons.

    The current drop in the yellow metal (by more than 2.7%) is considered by experts to be the most significant in the last two years. Gold futures quotes on the New York Comex exchange plummeted to $2,346.4 per ounce at the end of Monday's trading, reaching the lowest level since April 5, 2024. On Tuesday, April 23, the precious metal declined by 0.85% and then fell by another 1.3%. Currently, gold is trading at the level of $2,316.45 per ounce.

    The precious metal was also weighed down by the high likelihood that the Federal Reserve would maintain a tight monetary policy much longer than expected in early 2024. The focus of market attention is on the publication of the key inflation indicator in the United States - the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which the regulator pays special attention to when assessing risks. The release of this report is scheduled for Friday, April 26. According to preliminary forecasts, the indicator decreased to 2.6% year-on-year in March. Recall that its February value was 2.8% year-on-year.

    Many investors are counting on some easing of geopolitical tensions. At the same time, market participants are switching to riskier assets such as stocks. According to CFTC data, the volume of major market players' long positions in gold futures and options is at a four-year high. The reason for profit-taking was the fairly rapid decline in the value of the precious metal. In addition, in recent months, gold has appreciated despite a steep rally in the greenback. In the current situation, the risks of a deep correction in the precious metal are increasing.

    However, according to some analysts, there are favorable factors contributing to further gans in gold. Tailwinds for the yellow metal will be the US Federal Reserve's rate cuts, global instability, and the growing US government debt. Against this backdrop, even economists at Bank of America, who are skeptical about the prospects of the precious metal, expect its price to rise to $3,000 by 2025. Analysts at Citi Bank are also bullish on gold, expecting it to gain in the next 6–18 months. Many investors adhere to this position, asserting that the likely record of $3,000 per ounce will be surpassed in a couple of years.

    Improvement in forecasts for gold prices in 2024 boosts investor optimism. It is worth noting that these forecasts anticipate an increase in the value of the metal in the near future. Confidence in such a scenario allows market players to weather the current market woes and prepare for an upcoming rise in gold.

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  8. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Weekly forecast based on simplified wave analysis of EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, and Gold on May 6th

    EUR/USD

    Analysis:
    The weekly chart scale of the major European currency pair shows that the dominant descending wave of recent months is nearing completion. The wave structure appears to be formed. The unfinished segment in the upward direction dates back to April 16.

    Forecast:
    We expect to see a general sideways movement in the euro's price in the upcoming week. One should expect an increase towards the calculated resistance zone in the coming days. Subsequently, there is a high probability of transitioning into a drift, followed by a further price decline. The greatest volatility is expected towards the end of the week.

    Potential reversal zones

    Resistance:
    1.0870/1.0920
    Support:
    1.0620/1.0570

    Recommendations:
    Buying: Small volume purchases within the "intraday" framework can be profitable for the deposit.
    Selling: Without confirmed reversal signals near the resistance zone, conditions for such transactions do not exist.

    USD/JPY

    Analysis:
    Over the past year, the dominant upward wave of the main Japanese yen pair has been completed. The descending wave zigzag initiated on April 29 possesses reversal potential. Its structure began forming the middle part (B) at the end of last week. Quotes reached the lower boundary of the potential reversal zone on the H4 timeframe.

    Forecast:
    At the beginning of the upcoming week, there is a high probability of price movement within the corridor between the nearest counter zones. A transition to sideways drift is expected after possible pressure on the support zone. Towards the end of the week, one can expect a resumption of price growth towards the resistance boundaries.

    Potential reversal zones
    Resistance:
    154.70/155.20
    Support:
    151.60/151.10

    Recommendations:
    Selling: Carries increased risk and may lead to losses for your deposit. Refraining from trading until the upcoming upward correction is completed is optimal.
    Buying: Becomes possible after the appearance of reversal signals from your trading systems near the resistance zone.

    GBP/JPY

    Analysis:
    The direction of movement of the British pound/Japanese yen pair since the end of September 2022 is determined by an ascending wave. On the weekly timeframe, it completes a larger ascending wave structure. The descending segment since April 29 possesses reversal potential and may mark the beginning of a correction of the main wave.

    Forecast:
    In the coming days, the flat character of the movement is expected to continue. A short-term increase in quotes to the resistance zone is not excluded. In the following days, an increase in volatility, a reversal, and a resumption of price decline are expected. A brief breach of the upper resistance boundary is possible upon course change.

    Potential reversal zones
    Resistance:
    193.80/194.30
    Support:
    188.70/188.20

    Recommendations:
    Buying: It is suggested that the main attention be devoted to finding buy signals near the support zone.
    Selling: It may become risky and not recommended in the coming days.

    USD/CAD

    Analysis:
    The direction of movement of the Canadian dollar in the main pair since the end of December last year is determined by an ascending wave. The price has reached the boundaries of the wide potential reversal zone in the weekly timeframe. Since the middle of last month, pair quotes have predominantly moved sideways, forming a correction. The wave structure needs to be completed.

    Forecast:
    The most probable scenario for price movement in the coming days will be a gradual shifting sideways between the nearest counter zones. After a bounce in price towards the upper boundary of the channel, a decline in quotes towards the support area is expected.

    Potential reversal zones
    Resistance:
    1.3730/1.3780
    Support:
    1.3580/1.3530

    Recommendations:
    Buying: High risk and may lead to losses.
    Selling: Fractional volumes may be used within individual trading sessions.

    NZD/USD

    Brief analysis:
    The unfinished wave structure of the New Zealand dollar chart is directed southward. It dates back to the end of December last year. The middle part (B) continues to form within the wave structure, resembling a horizontal plane. The resistance boundary runs along the lower boundary of a strong potential reversal zone of the large timeframe.

    Weekly forecast:
    During the upcoming week, gradual movement towards the resistance zone is expected. After reaching the calculated resistance zone, there is a high probability of a downward correction to the support zone.

    Potential reversal zones
    Resistance:
    0.6100/0.6150
    Support:
    0.5970/0.5920

    Recommendations:
    Buying: Has limited potential and may be used for scalping.
    Selling: After confirmed reversal signals appear near the support zone, it may become the main direction for trading this pair.

    Gold

    Analysis:
    In the gold chart, the direction of short-term trends over the past year is determined by an ascending wave algorithm. Since mid-April, the wave has been correcting, forming an elongated plane. At the time of analysis, it does not appear complete, moving sideways flat along the calculated support zone.

    Forecast:
    In the coming days, the pair's price should complete the movement's correction phase. A subsequent reversal and price increase towards the resistance zone can be expected by the end of the upcoming week. Breaking out of the indicated price corridor is possible but unlikely.

    Potential reversal zones
    Resistance:
    2360.0/2375.0
    Support:
    2290.0/2275.0

    Recommendations:
    Buying: Becomes possible after suitable signals appear near the support zone.
    Selling: Conditions for such transactions will arise after confirmed signals appear near the resistance zone.
     
  9. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Growth continues: Wall Street in green for third day in a row

    American stock indices ended trading higher on Monday, marking their third consecutive positive session. Investors are once again raising hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year.

    Global stock indicators also rose amid optimism about a likely rate cut. At the same time, the Japanese yen weakened against the dollar after a sharp rise last week associated with the proposed currency intervention.

    Expectations for US central bank rate cuts fell during the year due to more persistent inflation. Some investors began to fear that a rate cut would not materialize at all, sending markets tumbling in April.

    However, Friday's data showed that U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in April. That eased pressure on the Federal Reserve, making it less likely that rates would remain high for long. Combined with an unexpectedly positive corporate earnings season, this has given investors fresh momentum in recent sessions.

    Last week, the Fed signaled it was willing to consider cutting interest rates but wanted to make sure inflation was falling sustainably before making that decision. Fed officials repeated that statement Monday.

    Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said the current level of interest rates should slow the economy enough to bring inflation back to the central bank's 2% target. However, a strong labor market provides time to wait.

    Traders now expect the Fed to cut rates by 46 basis points by the end of 2024, with the first cut forecast in September or November, according to rate probability app LSEG.

    Stocks on both sides of the Atlantic, as well as in Asia, rose. The US labor market report on Friday was softer than expected, leading to renewed bets that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy as early as September.

    The dollar index, which measures the US currency's exchange rate against six major trading partners, fell for the fourth session in a row. It comes after Friday's data showed the weakest job growth since October, allaying fears that the Fed could raise rates again.

    However, the outlook for inflation remains uncertain as the market hopes interest rates will be restrictive enough to slow the economy and reduce the rate of price increases, Conger said.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 176.59 points, or 0.46%, to 38,852.27. The S&P 500 added 52.95 points, or 1.03%, to 5,180.74. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose 192.92 points, or 1.19%, to 16,349.25.

    Most sectors of the S&P 500 index ended trading on a positive note. The energy sector was one of the top gainers, thanks in part to U.S. natural gas futures hitting their highest level in 14 weeks.

    Chipmaker shares were broadly higher on Monday, including Arm Holdings, which added 5.2% ahead of this week's earnings release.

    Micron Technology (MU.O) shares rose 4.7% after Baird upgraded the stock. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.O) and Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O) also rose 3.4% and 6.1%, respectively, regaining ground lost after last week's disappointing earnings.

    Paramount Global (PARA.O) shares rose 3.1% after exclusive talks with Skydance Media ended without a deal, allowing a special committee to consider offers from other bidders.

    Tyson Foods (TSN.N) shares fell 5.7% despite beating Wall Street's second-quarter profit expectations as the company warned of pressure on consumers from persistent inflation.

    At the same time, shares of Spirit Airlines (SAVE.N) fell 9.7% to a record low after weak guidance for second-quarter earnings.

    The S&P 500 posted 29 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 150 new highs and 54 new lows.

    In Europe, the cross-regional STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.53%. It comes amid signs the European Central Bank is confident of cutting rates as euro zone inflation continues to slow, three ECB policy makers said.

    Philip Lane, Gediminas Simkus and Boris Vujicic said inflation and growth data supported their belief that eurozone inflation, which stood at 2.4% in April, would fall to the central bank's 2% target by the middle of next year. of the year.

    The MSCI World Shares Index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.50% to close at 1,066.73, its highest level since June 2022. Markets in the UK and Japan were closed due to holidays.

    The dollar index was down 0.07% at 105.10, lifting the euro 0.07% to $1.0766.

    Goldman Sachs raised its 2024 earnings per share growth forecast for companies in the STOXX 600 Index (.STOXX) to 6% from 3%. The bank noted that a 10% annual rise in Brent oil prices adds about 2.5 percentage points to annual earnings per share growth, and a 10% decline in the euro/dollar exchange rate adds about the same.

    Treasury yields fell as investors weighed in on sluggish job creation last week, bolstering views that the U.S. economy is not overheated and will not be hampered by rate cuts.

    The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 1.3 basis points to 4.487% from 4.5% late Friday.

    Traders now expect the Fed to cut rates by 43 basis points by year-end, with the first cut likely to come in September, according to rate probability app LSEG. Traders have cut their expectations to one cut in recent weeks due to signs of persistent inflation.

    Oil prices rose after Saudi Arabia raised June crude oil prices for most regions. In addition, the unlikely prospect of a quick ceasefire in the Gaza Strip has revived fears of renewed fighting between Hamas and Israeli forces.

    U.S. crude rose 37 cents to $78.48 a barrel and Brent crude rose 37 cents to $83.33 a barrel.

    MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) hit its highest level since February 2023, adding 0.66%, while the blue-chip China index (.CSI300) rose 1.5%.

    Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) rose 4.7% last week, posting its longest daily winning streak since 2018. The index closed 0.55% higher on Monday.

    Elsewhere, traders remain wary of potential yen volatility following past suspicions that Japanese authorities would intervene to stem the currency's sharp decline.

    Tokyo is believed to have spent more than 9 trillion yen ($59 billion) to prop up its currency last week, pushing the yen from a 34-year low of 160.245 to about a one-month high of 151.86 per dollar, according to the Bank of Japan. within a week.

    On Monday, the yen gave up some of its ground and was last trading at 153.95 per dollar, representing a decline of 0.63%.

    Gold prices rose amid a weakening dollar. US gold futures for June delivery rose 0.9% to $2,331.20 an ounce.

    Bitcoin added 0.65% to $63,343.00, while Ethereum was down 1.2% to $3,077.3.
     
  10. KostiaForexMart

    KostiaForexMart Senior Investor

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    Trading Signals for XAU/USD (GOLD) for May 14-16, 2024: buy above $2,342 (21 SMA - rebound)

    Gold is trading around 2,343, around the 21 SMA, and within the uptrend channel forming since early May. Gold, after a strong technical correction below 2,375, found a bottom around 2,330 which gave it an opportunity to recover.

    The H4 chart shows that gold could resume its bullish cycle if it consolidates above 2,340 or 2,330 in the coming days.

    If gold keeps its uptrend channel intact, a technical bounce around 2,330 would be a key point to buy with targets at 2,375 and 2,392. At this level, gold left a GAP on April 18 and the price is likely to reach this area so the GAP will be covered in the next few days.

    If gold breaks and consolidates below 2,330, the outlook could be negative and we could expect a change in trend. Therefore, gold could reach 5/8 Murray located at 2,312 and the 200 EMA located at 2,301.

    We believe that in the next few hours, gold could gain momentum and we can look for opportunities to buy, only if it settles above 2,330. Any pullback in the price will be seen as an opportunity to buy with targets at 2,355, 2,375, and 2,392.

    On May 10, the eagle indicator reached the oversold zone and we believe that gold could resume its bullish cycle as we see a relief in the bearish pressure so that gold could continue to rise.
     

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